AL East by Position: Catcher
by Stacey on Feb 1, 2010 8:55 PM EST
in Commentary & Analysis
35 comments
With just about two weeks until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, most teams have their rosters set (or pretty close to it) so I thought it'd be interesting to see how the O's stack up with the rest of the division one position at a time. Catcher seems like the best place to start since it is the home position of one Matthew Richard Wieters, the young man sent to rescue Orioles fans from 12 years of suffering.
Ranked from best to worst, they are:
1. Matt Wieters (Orioles) - As Wieters goes into his second year, you have to think that the hype train will have slowed down some. It took Wieters some time to get up to speed in 2009 as he learned a new pitching staff and a new league, but he really turned it on in the final month and looks primed for a great 2010. He'll be 24 years old this year which is six years younger than the next oldest catcher in the AL East and he could possibly outperform them all in 2010. I refuse to believe otherwise.
2. Victor Martinez (Red Sox) - Traded to the Red Sox from the Indians at the trading deadline in '09, Martinez is an offensive threat behind the plate who is not generally known for his defense. Early in his career Martinez was strictly a catcher but in 2006 started splitting time at 1B. In 2009 he played more games at 1B (68) and less games at C (83) than in any other year when he played a full season. If I had to venture a guess I'd say his time at 1B will be much less in 2010 since the corners in Boston are being manned by Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre, but at 31 years old he should be able to put in plenty of time behind the plate. Martinez is a huge upgrade over Jason Varitek with a career batting line of .299/.372/.465 (wOBA .360). Since becoming a full time player in 2004 Martinez has only had one season with an OPS+ of less than 122, and that was in 2008 when he dealt with injuries and only played 73 games.
3. Jorge Posada (Yankees) - When the Yankees made it back to the World Series in 2009, someone coined the oh so witty phrase of "the core four" to describe Posada, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte, as those four are the remaining members of the 1990s Yankee dynasty. All four players had a great year in '09 but they're all also getting pretty old, Posada in particular. Posada will be 38 in 2010 which for a starting catcher is ancient. His offensive resurgance of 2009 was due in part to the move to New Yankee Stadium as he hit .325/.400/.613 at home and just .245/.327/.432 on the road. He only played in 111 games (with 9 at DH and 2 at 1B) in 2009 and I'd expect a similar amount in 2010 as he deals with old man injuries.
4. Kelly Shoppach (Rays) - The Indians traded Martinez to the Red Sox last July and Shoppach to the Rays in December so I have no idea who is going to be behind the plate in Cleveland in 2010. Considering the depth chart on their official site has four catchers on it I'm guessing they're not sure themselves. The Rays needed to upgrade at catcher and they did a good job with Shoppach. Dioner Navarro is just an awful hitter and ZAUN moved on to greener pastures in Milawaukee. Shoppach played second fiddle to Victor Martinez in Cleveland but in the only year he ever received regular playing time (in '08, due to Martinez' injury) he hit .261/.348/.517 with 21 HR in 112 games. Over his career he has hit a home run once every 24 plate appearances (1043 career PA). It's possible Shoppach could have a big year in Tampa Bay. I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms Posada, honestly.
5. John Buck (Blue Jays) - John Buck spent the last six seasons in Kansas City but was released following the 2009 season (the Royals had to make room for Jason Kendall, after all). When my friends and I impersonate Royals fans, my friend Anthony wears a John Buck t-shirt, so he was understandably distraught when Buck and the Royals parted ways. His suggestion for our Third Annual Impersonate a Royals Fan Weekend was to go to Toronto when the Royals are playing the Blue Jays and yell to John Buck that he'll never forget him. Anyway, John Buck...is not very good. He has a career OBP of .298, he can't hit for average, and he's not really much for defense. I swear you guys, the Blue Jays are gonna be horrible this year. If the Orioles finish behind them I might cry.
One position down and the Orioles look to be in pretty good shape! Think we should just stop here?
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"One position down and the Orioles look to be in pretty good shape! Think we should just stop here?"
Yes. Oh, wait: do RF, CF and 2B. Then stop.
See, if the league switches over to a 4-player format this year, we are a contenduh. Cool.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
not sure if 2B flatters us
Cano, Pedroia, Hill, Zobrist… according to Fangraphs, Roberts was the 8th most valuable 2B in the majors – but all 4 AL East counterparts ranked ahead of him. of course, Hill had a career year offensively and chances are, he’ll go back to his 750 OPS / average defense self – but it’s not like Roberts is at an age where he’s gonna improve either.
yea thats all bs
i would take roberts over hill and zobrist any day. i’d def compare him with cano and pedroia too (except the looking like a rodent part).
seriously...
still not buying zobrist.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
Hill I don't buy
Zobrist I think the jury is still out. Hill has had like 5 full seasons and he suddenly gets good. Zobrist never had a full time season before. I wouldn’t be surprised if he falls off (it’d be nearly impossible for him to be AS good) but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
yea that's kinda what i meant
as of this moment, i’d take roberts over zobrist since roberts is fairly consistent. hill i dont buy at all.
Why dont people buy Hill?
Injuries have slowed his development. But he was a first round pick from a big name college. He put up solid numbers in the minors and he’s had a line of 285/337/771 in 663 games the majors compared to robert’s .284/386/777. I like Hill a lot, not to hit 36 HR’s again but to stay around 20 HR and 40 2B at a position where thats good production. From an offensive standpoint, he’ll produce numbers simmilar to the other 4 2B in the division.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 2, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Well
He never hit 20 HRs before this season (previous high was 17 and that was his only time above 6!) and he had only hit 40+ doubles once in 4 full seasons.
He's 27
So its not like he’s been around that long and he is just hitting his power peak. Players develop power as they get older so the fact that he did not hit for much power in the minors doesnt mean anything. Especially because he never repeated a single level in the minor leagues so none of those numbers are inflated. An OPS of around 800 is right around his career average and I dont think its unreasonable to expect that again this year.
The dude’s legit, I had him on my fantasy team all last year and unless he gets hurt like in 2008 he’s gonna be good. He had an amazing april but even when his average was down in other months his power was still there. Its not a fluke.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 2, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
I guess
theoretically he could be coming into a random power surge, but I would not say that it’s common to discover power for the first time ever at age 27. Like I said he didn’t even hit with power with a metal bat in college. I would be very surprised if he regularly exceeds 20 HRs. I think 15 is much more reasonable for him.
not random
He averaged 32.8 doubles and 13.7 HR per 600 ab’s in the minors and 39.7 doubles and 9.8 HR per 600 ab’s excluding 2009 in the majors. That includes his rookie season and a season where he was injured. He was never a slugger before but he had doubles power. So while last year was a definite improvement from his averages, there’s no reason to believe its not sustainable.
Also, at this point, what he did in college means nothing. If you look at his projections on fangraphs, they are right in line with what i was expecting.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 2, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Ok...
And 33 doubles and 14 HRs is a LOT different than 40 doubles and 20 HRs. That was my point.
And college absolutely means something – metal bats and mediocre pitching tend to overemphasize a players power and power potential rather than the other way around.
I mean
don’t get me wrong I think he’s a pretty good player – i just think last year was a total aberration and he’ll revert back to 35-ish doubles and 12-15-ish HRs.
I definitely don’t think it is reasonable to expect a season in which he more than doubles his career high in HRs (counting college and minors) is sustainable. That just doesn’t seem realistic. Unless he’s on steroids which I guess is perfectly plausible.
Last year was a career year
But players do improve especially until about 27. So my point about the averages is not that he will regress to those numbers but that he is a legit threat to hit 20 hr and 40 2b because he showed improvement and those numbers represent more of what he will do. Either way, let’s agree to disagree, you don’t think as highly as I do of him and I think your use f college stats is silly.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 2, 2010 11:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And really
if you think looking at college stats is silly I don’t know what to tell you. The level of college that he played at is basically the equivalent of A or high A. All scouts look at college performance when assessing a player – we all saw it a ton the past few years with guys like Strasburg, and then Wieters and Matusz on our own team.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
College stats tell more than some others— namely, LL, BR , HS and Legion stats. James is right, of course, that they aren’t much good for ML projection b/c of the metal bats and competition level— but they can be valuable (as I bet he’d agree) as a comparative evaluator: if you get your data from teams/confs with relatively stable profiles, a given player can be compared with previous grads of same who proved professionally capable and with current players in other programs/confs with like profiles.
So they mean something, although the applicable comparion samples are not large enough to support the sweeping statements people still like to make (“Arizona State always has good outfielders”).
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
I agree
But when those college stats were 6 years ago and you’ve got significant samples of minor league data and major league data, you are just wasting your time when considering the college stats.
They are useful to an extent if you are determining who to draft or evaluating the performance of a recent grad.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 3, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't using them as a predictor really.
I was using them as part of a broader history that shows him having limited (at best) power. Even when he was playing with a metal bat in a league where he was the creme of the crop. So I was using that (along with the 6 years since then where his high in HRs was 17) to point out that it was unlikely he would continue to be a legitimate power threat and that more likely 2009 was an aberration.
You were using in reference to future performance
So you were, and like I said earlier, lets just agree to disagree.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 3, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Right as part of a much broader body of performance.
But if you think it’s reasonable to expect somebody to continue on a pace double their career high (which was already 30% higher than their career high before that!) then definitely – agree to disagree.
Yeah I don't think that really goes against anything I've said.
He said that college stats are very different from AA or AAA and I said that good conferences – like the one that Hill played in – are roughly equivalent to A or high A. And if anything the metal bat argument would seem to be implying that college stats tend to make a good hitter seem great and a mediocre hitter seem good, which was also part of my argument.
Carlos Santana is going to be the Indians Catcher
and he’ll be darn good offensively.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
I am as optomistic an Orioles fan as anyone...BUT
I have have worries about Wieters. The pressure that was/is on the kid, the bat speed (which seems a little slow at times), and just the stature of that big guy on those knees. I just worry that the more we think he is going to be good, the more we set ourselves up for disappointment. Im an O’s fan so its not like this is outta the blue. (Big Ben Mcdonald for instance). Lord knows I want him to be like Mauer but I’m going to resist saying hes the beast of the east until I have seen more.
I really am a huge Os fan dispite my pessimism in this. My dad stopped to get a baltimore sun when my mother was going into labor with me, my first words were “go o’s” and I was the first regular season fan EVER into camden yards (My brother and I are in sports illustrated April 6th 1992 and we argue who really was the first). All besides the point, I’m just worried.
"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'"
Earl Weaver
Hey, enjoy the ride
He could be the next Johnny Bench. Or maybe just very, very good. It will be a fun year watching him develop either way, unless he winds up being hurt a lot. Can’t wait to see him play.
y'know...
while i think he’ll be better on balance, if wieters had the equivalent of ben mcdonald production it woudln’t be too bad.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
You are obviously NOT as optimistic an Orioles fan as anyone.
Given that you lack faith in our savior.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
Jorge Posada has to start declining soon. The dude is freakin’ 38 years old next season. Catchers tend to decline fast and much earlier than 38. Cliff meet Jorge.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Well, Jorge already met HGH...
Oops, who said that? Seriously, nothing like winning the World Series with a ton of guys in their mid-to-late-30s having monster years. Not suspicious at ALL.
"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson
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