The Verducci Effect and the Orioles
by duck on Feb 16, 2010 4:21 PM EST
in Commentary & Analysis
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PrintTom Verducci has posted his annual Watch List for pitchers thought to be at heightened risk for injury or poor performance due to overuse. He calls it the Year After Effect, most everyone else calls it the Verducci Effect. Here's Verducci's explanation:
More than a decade ago, with the help of then-Oakland pitching coach Rick Peterson, I began tracking one element of overuse which seemed entirely avoidable: working young pitchers too much too soon. Pitchers not yet fully conditioned and physically matured were at risk if clubs asked them to pitch far more innings than they did the previous season -- like asking a 10K runner to crank out a marathon. The task wasn't impossible, but the after-effects were debilitating. I defined an at-risk pitcher as any 25-and-under pitcher who increased his innings log by more than 30 in a year in which he pitched in the big leagues. Each year the breakdown rate of such red-flagged pitchers -- either by injury or drop in performance -- was staggering.
After the jump, I'll take a look at why no Orioles pitchers are on the list, and why that's the case.
The Orioles have four pitchers who started last year that fall in the under-26 category that started a significant number of games last year. They are:
| Name | 2008 MiLB IP | 2009 MiLB IP | 2009 MLB IP | 2009 TOTAL IP |
| Brad Bergesen |
165.1 |
11.0 |
123.1 |
134.1 |
| Chris Tillman |
135.2 |
65.0 |
96.2 |
161.2 |
| Brian Matusz |
131.2* |
113.0 |
44.2 |
157.2 |
| David Hernandez |
141.0 |
61.1 |
101.1 |
162.2 |
*Includes the 2007-2008 NCAA season and the 2008 Arizona Fall League.
There have been two reactions by MLB clubs to the Verducci Effect. The first was the most obvious to fans, especially of the O's. Teams simply started shutting pitchers down when they came close to the Verducci Effect line of 30 more innings pitched than the previous year. The second wasn't so obvious, and I found extremely interesting:
As I was tracking this trend, the industry already was responding to the breakdown in young pitchers. The Yankees instituted the Joba Rules. The Orioles shut down pitchers late in the year. Teams set "target innings" for their young pitchers before camp even began. Clubs sent underworked starters to the Arizona Fall League to build their arms to better withstand regular work the next year.
Let's deal with the second effect first. The only pitcher of note the Orioles sent to the Arizona Fall League was Brandon Erbe, and he had missed two months of the season with an injury. As it is, he only added another 9.0 IP to his total for 2009. He is not expected to be added to the Orioles this year, but his IP for 2010 in the minors will be interesting to note for 2011.
There's no doubt the Orioles had the Verducci Effect in mind ending the season, however. David Hernandez was the only pitcher of the four on the O's active roster younger than 26 that ended the season still pitching. Brad Bergesen's season ended early due to injury, but Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman were both shut down by the O's organization while still healthy.
Glancing at the chart, it's easy to see why. While Bergesen had about 60 more IP left to throw before he approached the Verducci Effect line, Tillman had added 26.0 IPfrom his 2008 total. The additional innings put him perilously close to the 30+ IP mark, and the O's shut him down after his worst start of the season Sept. 27, costing him one last start.
Matusz was in his first full year of professional baseball, having thrown 26.2 IP in the Arizona Fall Leaguein 2008 in addition to the 18 starts for the University of San Diego in 2007-08 with 105.0 IP. He had 13 starts and two relief appearances in 2006-07 with 123.0 IP. His 2009 total was 26 IP higher than his college and AFL totals of 2008, and the decision was made to shut him down on Sept. 12, after his best start of the season, beating New York 7-3 with just one earned run and four hits in 7.0 IP.
Hernandez added 21.2 IP, which left him plenty of room for 2010 as a starter. But he is expected to see considerable time in the bullpen this season, which will drive down his projected 2010 IP totals considerably.
As for 2010, the shutdown of Tillman and Matusz in September 2009 still leaves them plenty of room to be full-year starters barring injury for the Orioles. Tillman, if he adds around 30 IP to his 2009 total, would throw 192 IP, certainly near the target of 200 IP for a full-time starter. Matusz would project to just four innings fewer, leaving him in the neighborhood of 188 IP for the season as his target.
The Orioles have left themselves in an enviable position with Tillman and Matusz. They allowed the two pitchers to learn on the job in 2009, but can afford to lean on them in 2010 if they prove successful. If healthy and pitching well, we should be able to see 31 or so starts for each pitcher if they average 6.0 IP a start. If they struggle, the Orioles will still have the option of letting them finish the season at AAA and taking the ball every fifth day without an innings constraint due to the shorter season. In either case, the Orioles, by limiting their seasons last year, have left themselves all sorts of options this year with two of their best young arms.
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I'm glad the O's are taking their time with these young pitchers
It’s very encouraging. I went ahead and looked up Jake Arrieta’s numbers from last year as well just to see. In his final year at TCU he pitched 98.2 innings, then in 2008 he pitched 113 innings for Frederick and 6 innings for the olympic team (although that’s a little hazy) for an increase of 14.1 innings. Then in 2008 he pitched a total of 150.2 between Bowie and Norfolk, which would be an increase of 31.2 That’s just a touch over the mark but like I said I’m really not sure about those Olympic innings in 2008. At any rate he shouldn’t go over about 180 in 2010 which is plenty for a summer callup.
If Arrieta can pitch 180 innings, Matusz 188, and Tillman 192, the O’s shouldn’t have to worry about watching them at all. It’s probably unlikely that they reach those marks. Only 24 pitches in the majors had at least 180 innings pitched last year.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
I really think Arrieta spend half of the year at AAA
I see an August call-up, as Matusz got, maybe slightly earlier. We will need more than five starters over the course of the year, but I think the O’s, much like they did with Tillman, want to give Arrieta at least a chance to shine in AAA first. Jake didn’t exactly blow away the International League last year.
Brandon Erbe is another pitcher I’d like to go back and run the numbers, but swim practice beckons…
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
spend = spends
my typing = teh suck
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Verducci Effect.
A few comments.
1) To name it after himself is extremely douchy. If going to use a person’s surname in naming an effect, then a name should be strategically picked that is at least descriptive of the effect.
2) He controls for nothing.
3) If really needs to look at the rate of injury for an appropriately defined comparison group. Pitchers get injured. The fact that X number of pitchers were injured out of X sample size doesn’t mean much if you find a similar rate of injury in other comparison groups.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
I'm pretty sure
he didn’t name it after himself. Others called it the Verducci effect because of his article.
He didn't name it after himself and doesn't call it that
Verducci himself calls it the Year After Effect. Just about every other baseball writer calls it the Verducci Effect, but not him.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
by duck on Feb 16, 2010 7:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Will Carroll named it the Verducci effect
He independently came to the same conclusions and then named it after Verducci as he’d discovered it first.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
Ok, that’s a lot better. You’re ok in my book Tom!
To the other people who named it the Verducci effect, you’re lame!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
well part of my point was
That Will Carroll came to the same conclusions without using anything from Verducci. And he’s considered an injury expert in baseball so it lends credence to the theory.
Of course the other part was that Tom Verducci isn’t a douche :)
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
That Will Carroll came to the same conclusions without using anything from Verducci. And he’s considered an injury expert in baseball so it lends credence to the theory.
I just think it’s lame because “Verducci” doesn’t describe anything about the effect. If you’re give an effect a name, name it something that’s actually descriptive of the effect.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Plus
it’s easy to make it sound like “The Verdouchey Effect,” and that pleases me. I’m in favor of the name.
Eh, not really. “Effects” are discovered in the sciences all of the time. Very rarely do these get named after a person. It’s just that when it does happen, it’s usually a very famous case. But those are rare instances.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
And of all the baseball columns written in the past few years, I'd say Verducci's initial year-after effect column is one of the more famous
I think the comparison is apt.
and i’ll just say that out of the many saber-orientated “effects” found in the last 15 to 20 years, this is the one famous case that gets named after a person?! kind of a shame.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Again, Tom didn't name it after himself
He still calls it the Year After Effect, which would fall within your naming guidelines.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
And I didn’t say he named it after himself! I said, out of the “effects”, this is the one that get named after a person! I realize that was beyond his control Man, people are really jumpy about Verducci.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
And just to expand, there’s are tons of “famous” findings (or “effects” if you will) in baseball research. Out of all of the “famous” effects, none of them are named after a person. There’s no Voros effect for example. Or James effect. And if we’re going to name a finding after a person, this is the one that “we” (we being the baseball community, NOT VERDUCCI!) pick!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Also
Innings is a pretty silly thing to measure as all innings are not created equal. Pitches matters a lot more for arm health than innings, so maybe innings combined with pitches per inning would be a better measurement.
In the short term yes, but i'd bet that over the course of the season innings tend to be statistically indistinguishable
For the most part everyone is going to have good and bad innings, and when you’re trying to look at general trends over the course of the entire league, innings are probably a good variable.
I don't know about that.
The quality of innings vary greatly throughout the season and from season to season depending on a) how well the pitcher is doing, b) whether they are pitching to contact or getting a lot of K’s, c) how the defense is behaving behind them.
Pitchers per inning
I would expect that to remain relatively consistent from year to year for one particular pitcher. So if you assume that, then a large increase in IP would mean an increase in almost the same scale of the increase in IP. Its an assumption but I dont think its a terrible one.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 17, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know that I would necessarily expect that.
You think Guthrie’s pitches per inning in 2009 were consistent with his pitcher per inning in 2008?
what I mean
is that pitches per inning are generally a reflection of how well the pitcher is pitching – if he’s pitching well he’ll have fewer pitches per inning. A pitchers’ effectiveness does vary year to year so I wouldn’t expect it to be that consistent. And considering that a difference of only 1 pitch per inning over the course of a season can be equivalent to 2 full starts or 14-18 innings it seems like it matters.
I agree with you
Its not perfect, and i would rather look at stressful starts because i think that is more meaningful (and based on pitch counts) but there is merit to this effect.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 17, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Also,
I believe the Red Sox had Bill James scrutinize the Verducci effect and he didn’t find much which is why let Jon Lester took a huge jump in innings from 2007 to 2008. I believe the evidence shows that it’s not so much about the jump in innings as the amount of stress placed on pitchers after they reach the 100 pitch count.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Bill james
He is a believer in stressful outings being the cause of pitching injuries. Also pitching in consecutive days was another issue.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 16, 2010 10:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
How is a manager supposed to know in advance
which outing will turn out stressful?
by fishoutawata on Feb 17, 2010 4:36 AM EST up reply actions
pitch counts
He assigns stress points depending on the number of pitches thrown in an outing and then tracks the pitchers who had a lot compared to those who had less. If i remember correctly
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 17, 2010 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
It'd Be Interesting...
I’m sure they’ve already run the numbers on this, but some kind of count of pitches per year, pitches per inning, etc., etc. 30 innings accounts for a significant number of pitches… most of the time. Guys like Roy Halladay, who can go 9 innings every time they’ve got their good stuff on, may throw 110 pitches per game, but they’re also averaging something like 12 pitches per inning (12.22 repeating). If he averages 8 innings per start at 12 pitches per inning, he’ll have thrown 3227 pitches, assuming he gets 33 starts So that’s 3227 pitches in 264 (I know it’s unrealistic, but bear with me for the sake of the argument). Not that our guys are bad, but they aren’t on Halladay’s level as of yet. They’re more likely to average 14-15 pitches per inning. So at 14.5 pitches/inning, we would only get 222 1/3 innings for the same number of pitches.
There are two results of having more pitches per inning. One is that the pitcher is either struggling more, or he is stressing his arm more. He is getting in trouble and having to work out of it, or he is having trouble putting guys away. Because of that, he is throwing more consecutive pitches without a break to sit on the bench for a bit. Anyone can tell you that one twenty-pitch inning is more tiresome than two twelve-pitch innings. The other result is the previously stated reduced number of innings per start.
This idea is somewhat opposite to the Verducci Theory and it complements it at the same time. I’m curious if anyone has seen any kind of data about this in relation to or conjunction with the Verducci Theory.
On the first day, Chuck Norris created God. But the day before that, Matt Wieters created Chuck Norris and the calendar.
by oriolesfan151 on Feb 17, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
Loewen
It was interesting to note that Loewen was on the list.
FWIW, Verducci is still a dbag in my book.
Librarians are hiding something
Perhaps it should be called
the “Dusty Baker” effect in honor of all the careers he ended prematurely by overworking pitchers.
Verducci Effect
With all due respect to Mr James, each pitch is a stressful event.
Controlling the total number of innings is a good method of risk mitigation. Research conducted by various professionals in the field use the number of pitches as a better predictor of performance and likelihood of injury. That is why we count pitches during games and limit the number thrown. Mastusz, with better command than Tillman, threw far fewer pitches, even though they pitched the same amount of innings.
Unrepeatable motion is another injury factor. It is a popular belief that pitchers with greater lateral movement in their motion (i.e. Chris Ray) tend to be less consistant in their motion and therefor tend to be more injury prone.
Little League Inc has sponsored many important research projects recently in this area. They have inacted rules regarding restricting the number of pitches versus the number of innings a maturing individual should complete. Yes, counting pitches is more anal methodology than innings, but will provide better results.
Verducci does have a gross idea of the subject and his effect a gross method of risk reduction. He is not a scientist who studies movement of the human body is he?
To some degree, I think Verducci limited himself to easily obtained data
Let’s face it, IP is a pretty easy stat to obtain from MiLB and NCAA and even HS competition. Were are GMs going to get pitch counts from Central Connecticut State? Or Walt Whitman High School?
Ideally, I suppose, a GM and pitching coaching staff would analyze data like times through the lineup or fastball speed in each inning pitched. But that data isn’t readily available. Innings pitched is.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
That may be true for obscure guys
at places like central connecticut state or walt whitman high school, but for phenoms like strasburg and tillman and matusz, there are a million scouts at every game counting pitches as well as clocking speeds. I think for the guys that an organization cares about the data is available. Any respectable college program keeps pitch counts for everybody as well as most high schools.
Ideally, I suppose, a GM and pitching coaching staff would analyze data like times through the lineup or fastball speed in each inning pitched. But that data isn’t readily available. Innings pitched is.
Sure, that’s very understandable. But let’s not carried away and think that this is some insightful finding. It’s so overly simplistic to the point of being trivial… well, that’s a little too harsh but you get my drift.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
I disagree that it's trivial
Is it an ideal measurement? No. But is it a useful piece of information and guideline to be used in conjuction with established team protocols? I think it is.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
I also think
that if there is data that indicates this year after effect, even if it’s not perfect, when you’re dealing with young pitchers that are such a huge asset to the team it can only be a good idea to err on the side of caution.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
But is it a useful piece of information and guideline to be used in conjuction with established team protocols? I think it is.
Like I said, trivial is probably too strong. But it being a useful piece of information… there’s no rigorous evidence that supports that notion.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
The young pitchers could go for more innings if they keep the pitch count down. Get the hitters into a bunch of quit ground outs and double plays then its not outlandish to pitch 200 innings. Strikeouts are okay, but an out is an out, so id rather have the batter chase the first pitch and pop it up, than try to strike them out.
agreed
An out is an out, but the ability to get a timely k is huge. It also means you can make hitters swing and miss, which is why K/BB is a good stat to track for minor leaguers.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 18, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Postseason impact
Sadly, neither the article nor the comments contain the words “postseason” or “playoff” (or “ALCS” or “ALDS”) all of which have implications for managing young pitchers workload. Hopefully this is the kind of issue which will be relevant for the O’s again before too long.
“Joba Rules” were invented, of course, because the manager at the time, and his successor, both had well deserved reputations for being completely insensitive to the effect of workload on young pitchers’ arms.
In 2011, when the O's win the AL East, they won't have an IP limit
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
To all of you Verducci lovers
It’s CRAP. See here.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
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