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The Orioles should have a winning record this season

This year the O's will finish above 500

After 12 loosing seasons this is the year for the Orioles to finish above 500 and will be the beginning of a solid foundation for years to come.  I am not saying they will be in the playoffs this year the division is simply too good with the Yankees and Sox.  They go into this season with 4 started basically set and the 5th most likely Tillman,  The lineup is set besides some platoon duty in LF and DH.  No more stop gaps like Adam Eaton in the rotation and Weiters stats were much better than either of the other catchers used through the season last year.  With Miggi at 3rd over Mora the O's could have a shot to have 4-6 hitters hit 300 (Robers, Jones, Miggi, Markakis, Weiters and even Reimold)  Not to mention Jim Johnson goes back to the setup role with Gonzales as the closer.  Pitching is the big question mark with all the young arms.  Hopefully then dont overwork Matuz, Bery and Tillman.  They could use Hernandez and Hendrickson as spot starters to keep the innings down. Here is just how bad the pitching was in 2009.

In 2009, Berken pitched 119 2/3 innings and gave up 92 runs.
Hill pitched 57 2/3; gave up 53 runs.
Eaton pitched 41; gave up 39 runs.
Ray pitched 43 1/3; gave up 36 runs.
McCrory, Sarfate, Lambert, Henn, Liz, Walker and Simon, collectively, pitched 76 2/3 innings and gave up 85 runs

Matuz had a 4.63 ERA.  He gave up 24 runs in 44 IP

Bergensen had a 3.43 ERA.  He gave up 52 runs in 123 IP

Tillman had a 5.40 ERA.  He gave up 40 runs in 65 IP

Matuz, Bergy and Tillman are much better than Hill, Eaton and Liz.  It's really not even close.  Baltimore lost 61 games by 3 runs or less and 44 by 2 or less. Simply put as long as they do not over work the young arms in the rotation there isn't any reason to think this year they can't finish above 500.  The difference in just runs per IP supports that on its own.  The runs the Orioles score might be slightly improved but pitching is definitely better.

 

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Ah

Well I’m not totally sure we make it over .500, I do think we’ll be very close. The problem is that some players will regress or get injured. Bergeson is unlikely to pitch as good and will probably be closer to a 4 ERA than a 3.6 ERA
However the pitching will be much better. How much depends on the individual pitchers

by OsandRoyals on Feb 17, 2010 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

Well

I def wouldnt expect Bergy to have the same numbers. Matuz did come on stronger toward the end. I am looking at total runs and some of the pitchers on the staff especally early in the season. Numbers were terrible so 4-5 era for those 3 wouldnt be bad at all. And they should be slighly better with MT over MM. Reimold and Weiters should keep improving and a little consistency from Scott. I know its asking alot but I am a DIE HARD O’s fan and the potential is more than there. I know the last 12 season have been terrible for everyone but I truely think this is the best team since 97

by siglin83 on Feb 17, 2010 11:06 AM EST reply actions  

Right. OR , WRONG

I have learned in my years as an O’s fan to expect to lose 90 games. They will lose at least 85 this year. Probably 90. And they are only a couple injuries away from losing 100. Let’s be honest with each other O’s fans. The sadness won’t be over anytime soon.

When does football start again?

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 17, 2010 1:23 PM EST reply actions  

chew on that

And dont waste your time here in the future- there’s plenty of forums for whining about dan snyder and tom cruise

Earl:"I'm going back to the dugout to check my rule-book!" Umpire:"Earl, I have one right here." Earl:"That's no good, I don't read Braille."

by kevgracie on Feb 17, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Wasting time.....

I think I will make myself an active member on here. Perhaps everyone’s optimism about this season will rub off on me if I get on here every few days . Or, not.

A joke about a blind ump? No wonder the O’s were good back in Earl’s day.

By the way, the Ravens suck. They won a title when they were still full of leftover Cleveland Browns. Since then.. they haven’t done squat. Except be Peyton Manning’s little bitc**s. So let’s not point the finger too much toward Washington, Baltimorons.

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

A bunch of left over Cleveland Browns?

Only two starters on that 2000 team were players on that Browns (Rob Burnett and Matt Stover), that team was built in Baltimore.

by mlb32001 on Feb 24, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Silly rabbit...

facts aren’t relevant on the internet!

Also, it’s the same organization. What exactly does it matter?

by daveh873 on Feb 24, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL

Matt Stover IS the Raven’s leading all time scorer ……..

Is Burnett still doing radio up there?

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah pretty sure he still is doing radio.

It doesn’t matter, dave. I was just pointing out that from the time they left Cleveland to the time we won the SB the team changed completely.

by mlb32001 on Feb 25, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh I know what you were pointing out

I was really asking william what it matters. It was the same organization in Cleveland that it was in Bmore. Even if they drafted guys in Cleveland that helped the Ravens win the SB, who cares?

by daveh873 on Feb 25, 2010 12:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow

You’re really doing a lot to endear yourself to the community.

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

because

that’s what I am aiming to do here? Endearment? LOL. I just made a comment because I saw a link that said " The Orioles should have a winning record this season " . After I got done laughing, I decided to see what everyone was smoking. Apparently it’s the good stuff.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually

The Redskins offer much more comfort than the Orioles. 3 Championships in my lifetime. 2 of them I can actually remember watching. They actually won playoff games in the past decade. The last time the Orioles won a title….. I wasn’t old enough to know what was going on.

The fact is the Redskins are 10 times better an organization than the O’s. That’s saying something. Because, believe me, they have plenty of problems.

Losses per season by the Orioles for the last 10 years.

2009 98
2008 93
2007 93
2006 92
2005 88
2004 84
2003 91
2002 95
2001 98
2000 88

Last year they had a -135 Run differential. But this year is so promising for some reason. Doing the same things.. expecting different results.. you know the rest.

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

This is BS

The O’s play in a league with no salary cap and in a division with the 2 richest teams in the sport. There is no valid comparison here. Sure, I guess because of this it is more likely in any given season that the Skins will be more competitive than the O’s, but it definitely does not mean that The Redskins are 10X better of an organization than the O’s. I’d argue the point that the Redskins have failed in spite of these facts actually shows evidence of the opposite.

by daveh873 on Feb 24, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

And

The Skins play in a division with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles. The Cowboys have 5 Super Bowls, are the most valuable franchise in the NFL according to Forbes. The Giants have won 4 NFL championships and 3 Super Bowls. The Eagles , well, are good but never win anything. 3 Conference titles…

Washington is in the (historically) toughest division in football. So I don’t want to hear the argument that " in a division with the 2 richest teams in the sport. " The other 3 teams in the NFC East spend money also.. as much as they possibly can.. every year.

I understand the O’s have to deal with the Yankees and the Red Sox. But why can’t they beat the Oakland A’s ? That’s my issue here. They are not losing 85-95 games every season to the Yankees and the Sox alone.

You conveniently ignored the massive run differential I mentioned.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

the redskins spend as much as they possibly can as well

but all of those teams are limited by a cap. in baseball, there is no cap. teams spending more money have better players and, you know, win more games than teams who have less talent.

i’m not sure where you are going with this “richest teams in the sport” thing with football. the best teams are the ones that make the best use of their cap. the skins aren’t making any progress because they arent as good at working the cap. the orioles, on the other hand, don’t have the luxury of being able to spend as much as other teams. they are using the draft to grow players and build a good foundation. the redskins generally waste the few draft picks that they do have each year. i dont understand how that makes them 10x better.

and who cares about the MASSIVE run differential. the redskins had something like a -60 to 70 point differential last year (i’m not adding up the points on my little magnet schedule here).

by twistedlogic on Feb 24, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

oh...forgot to add

i understand that redskins have to deal with the cowboys and the giants. But why can’t they beat the detroit lions…or the kansas city chiefs?

by twistedlogic on Feb 24, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey I've got a suggestion

stop making Skins fans look like dickheads.

by O'sFan21 on Feb 24, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't ignore anything

Does run differential have anything to do with how well the teams are run? I obviously was not trying to make a case for the Orioles being a great team, just that your “the Redskins are 10 times better an organization than the O’s” argument has a humongous hole in it.

by daveh873 on Feb 24, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey Baltimore.

Do something other than lose everything you participate in , then talk smack about the Redskins. ’Nuff said.

Like I said, Peyton Manning owns your city. Ask Ray Ray.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Now that's rich

Listen bud, I don’t live in Baltimore nor have I ever lived there, so say whatever you like. A D.C. fan has no ground to stand on here, though. Your football team has won 3 Superbowls (the last one being in 1991) and 2 championships pre-merger, your hockey team has zero Stanley cups, and no Washington based baseball team has won a WS since the 20’s.

The O’s have won 3 WS’s, the Ravens have won one Super Bowl, and the Baltimore Colts won one and 3 championships pre-merger. By my count, the Baltimore teams have won far more than the DC teams, and they’ve won more recently (2000 vs 1991).

by daveh873 on Feb 24, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Is this someone from DC

smack talking Baltimore?

From DC? The only city on the East Coast with next to zero civic pride? The city where the acknowledged industry is a corrupt government-lobbying-military complex that fucks the rest of the country out of their money to hand over to their corporate benefactors/weapons merchants? The place where even with Federal largesse out the wazoo, they still cannot figure out how to run the Metro? I could go on and on, but if you’re actually from DC you need to look up from your mobile and move that 10 feet that just opened up in the traffic jam you’re currently sitting in. Don’t worry, you should be home by midnight. 1AM at the latest.

by Jonny Pops on Feb 24, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Bow to the greatness that is Jonny Pops, peeps

Damn, that was a harsh, yet mostly true, throw down. Well played, sir!

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 24, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

haha yes

but i love bobby flay. so i’ll use it when i wanna use it, k? get off my lawn.

by twistedlogic on Feb 24, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually feel bad for bobby flay because of throwdown

In the words of Anthony Bourdain:

They seem to have noticed Bobby’s strong "negatives" among some viewer responses during focus groups–and decided to respond by subjecting poor Bobby to THROWDOWN; the object of which is to allow every web-fingered geek with a backyard grill–or half-mad muffin maker to proclaim, "I beat Bobby Flay at makin’ barbeque!" at the heart-warming end of show–before returning to tend their meth labs.. I watched poor Bobby battle to a draw recently in some bogus Southwestern "Chili Face-Off." Now…does ANYONE actually believe that Bobby Flay can’t make a better chili than a supermarket ground beef bearing amateur? I don’t. It’s a cruel exercise in humiliation. A variation on "Dunk Bozo" or "Shoot The Geek," at the carnival. And whatever I might have thought of Flay’s previous TV efforts, I find the network’s misuse of one of their founding chefs to be nauseatingly cynical. The conspiratorial-minded might be tempted to suspect this as yet another part of the Secret Plan to rid themselves of the annoyingly big ticket chefs–by driving Bobby to quit–or insane with misery. He may not be Mr. Cuddlesworth, but he’s a successful businessman and a good chef–and he doesn’t, after all, need this shit.

by kba26 on Feb 24, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions  

i mean...he generally loses because the judges pick the "authentic" dish

but thats what i dont get. if they both made the authentic dish, they’d have the same thing essentially. flay always tries to add in something else which generally makes it “not the authentic dish.”

by twistedlogic on Feb 25, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

He loses because thats what the audience wants to see

Food network is no longer about teaching people how to cook, its about making people feel good about not being able to.

by kba26 on Feb 25, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

What about AB?

He’s still a teacher, and doesn’t get too involved in the rest of that nonsense.

Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.

by Andrew_G on Feb 25, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

his stuff is okay

i prefer RR because her stuff is easy and it actually does turn out really well when i make it.

by twistedlogic on Feb 25, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Alton Brown is pretty much my hero

Good Eats is one of the few watchable shows left on the channel

by kba26 on Feb 25, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

STEP!

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 25, 2010 12:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, absolutely. No doubt.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 24, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Did those three championships make you feel better during the 2009 season?

I’m really not the type to jump on someone about their football team, I have nothing against the Redskins and hope they do well in the future. But how does the fact that you can remember 2 of their super bowl wins help you get through a season like last year’s? How could that season offer you more comfort than the Orioles on the first freaking day of Spring Training?

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Certainly

The Orioles having not won anything over the last 25 years doesn’t comfort me when they are 30 games out of first. What’s the difference? There is none. At least the ‘Skins have a recent history. Like I said, they HAVE won playoff games in this millennium. There is no comparing the Orioles to the ’Skins. Good try though guys. The ’Skins are estimated to be worth roughly 1 Billion. The Orioles? 359 million. Let’s not even compare.

But since someone on here wanted to bring up the ‘Skins, I will have to remind everyone on here the true economics of sporting life. The Orioles are pennies on the Skins’ dollar. So are the Ravens. Deal with it.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

The Skins

were worth $1 Billion. I guarantee that number dropped precipitously after last season when tens of thousands of fans left the team. Myself included. I have had enough. Enough of that asshole, know-nothing, cheap piece of shit owner. Enough of these stupid 1 big move away ideas of running a football franchise. Enough Jason Campbell. Enough losing.

I’m a Ravens fan full time now and I’m not looking back. And there are thousands out there like me. Just look around in the District. You see tons of Ravens stickers on cars. Can’t say that about Skins stuff in Bmore.

by Jonny Pops on Feb 24, 2010 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

The Orioles having not won anything over the last 25 years

Well, except some playoff games 13 and 14 years ago. But don’t let facts get in your way.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 25, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions  

thanks for your BRILLIANT and ILLUMINATING TIMELINE, which is proof of.....what exactly?

Presidents of the United States

1789-1797: Rich white guy
1797-1801: Rich white guy
1801-1809: Rich white guy
.
.
.
1993-2001: Rich white guy
2001-2009: Rich white guy
2009-????: Rich white guy Oops.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 25, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Look

at the names on the rosters those years. Sosa, Palmero, Seugi, Hentgen, Berrora and look at their ages when they all signed. The last 3 years they have dont the opposite of that. They traded for young players and let them develop instead of signing 35 yr olds to 4-8 million dollar contracts. So yes i expect very different results from the years past becasue there are actually smart decisions being made

by siglin83 on Feb 26, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Put yer money on it

I got the O’s under 95 losses. You want the over for $100? My email’s at the bottom.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 17, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Never stopped me before, man

I’m a rebel.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 18, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions  

100 bucks?

Ooh… for that kinda money, I am gonna need you to give me the over on 94 games. Whatever. Who cares if they lose 90 or 95? I want them to WIN 90.

And I don’t bet people who call themselves “duck” . It’s shady. Can’t expect someone named “duck” to actually pay up on a bet, can you? No, sir.

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry

about his luck. Doesn’t change my stance on gambling with the man. Only solidifies it.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Good job changing your avatar to that of a winning team.

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Better

than the world’s largest trashcan. That’s for sure! Is that your personal trashcan for your blogging failures? LMAO! ROFL!

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Ooh. scary.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

oooh you're mean.

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

that's nothing

Since that time a dude called me a fat skank in a game thread and then after getting banned re-registered with a new name based on a part of my anatomy, all other insults pale in comparison.

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow

Sorry I missed that one.

Seriously though, Stacey. You really should recycle your blogging failures instead. It’s better for the environment.

by daveh873 on Feb 24, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

ha ha duck

Kids, do as duck says, not has he does :P

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm just shocked I didn't get any recs for it.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 25, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

this reminds me of a great "band of brothers" scene

“what’s that guy’s problem?”…..“gonorrhea.” “really?” “his name, dummy. guarnere…gonorrhea. get it?” “so besides having a shitty name, what’s his problem?”

“none of your fucking business, cowboy!”

by twistedlogic on Feb 26, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Call me a cocksucker,

and I’ll throw you out of this game.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 25, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I must protest!

Having won my fair share of money from him over the years I can assure you that he does, in fact, pay up.

You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.

by sluggo 2.0 on Feb 25, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I've resorted to betting on hockey to break even, people

I pay my debts.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 25, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Can’t expect someone named "duck" to actually pay up on a bet, can you? No, sir.

i’m pretty sure we have a “no personal attacks” thing on here and i’m going to get a harsh reprimand from the higher authorities, but way to be a complete jerk.

by twistedlogic on Feb 24, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

nah dude you're cool

as far as I’m concerned he started it.

"It feels like home,’’ Pie said. "All my friends are here."

by Stacey on Feb 24, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I will bow out now

 I will check back with you guys in October to see how pleasing the Orioles win percentage is to you all. I hope they finish well above even. I just don’t see it . I am tired of the losing, and I don’t expect it to change THIS season. Above .500? Doubtful.

Enjoy the season everyone. See ya on top the scoreboard. I will be the guy in the Aubrey Huff jersey. Charity auctions lead to bad clothing choices——

P.S. – It wasn’t my intention to fire everyone up.. but someone started on the ’Skins, so I said my peace. Out.

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

And I just totally violated it.

Sorry, gang. He had it coming.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 24, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I really dont think

this season if going to mirror past seasons. since Andy has come in no big moves have been made for that season everything was long term. Last year the young players showed a lot of promise. Wieters, Reimold, Matusz and Bergy did look like they will help the club for years to come. You are correct about usually loosing 90 games at least expecting to but in the past they would bring in Sosa, Hentgen, Paton, Russ Ortiz ect all older players on the decline. The way they have developed talent these last couple years I think is more like Tampa or the Phillies

by siglin83 on Feb 17, 2010 2:08 PM EST reply actions  

And

just with all the close games they were in last year and I dont see any way they let up as many runs as they did last year. I think 81-85 wins and could stay in the wild card later in the season. All Orioles fans should be a bit excited for this season. The future really is now with all the youngsters

by siglin83 on Feb 17, 2010 3:06 PM EST reply actions  

75 wins

I’m not really sure how the team can win much more than that. 3E1N outpeformed his FIP by a good amount (FIP: 4.20), and Tillman served up a lot of long balls. Matusz is still a rookie. I’m not knocking any of them and am very excited for the season and those guys are 3 big reasons why, I just think expecting this team to win 81 games is setting yourself up to be disappointed. 2011 though, different story.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 17, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions  

Last year, the Orioles basically averaged a 4-6 record in each set of ten games

That’s like going eight games under .500 at every quarter pole of the season.

We can’t go 4-6 all the time and think we’re going to win. If we cut our 4-6’s in a little bit more than half and replace them with 5-5, we’d be a 75 win ballclub

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Feb 18, 2010 9:17 AM EST reply actions  

It's so hard to predict how many games they'll win this year.

Really, depending on how things go, they could win anywhere between 70 and 85. I highly doubt they’ll win fewer than 70, and anything above 80 definitely requires some optimism, but it really could be anywhere in there.

We’ve got so many young guys in the lineup that it’s basically anybody’s guess how good the offense could be. Jones, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie all have yet to have a full big-league season, and even Markakis is a bit of a question mark (is he a .290/.350/.450 guy — I hope not — or a .305/.380/.490 guy — yes, please). And that’s not even accounting for Tejada changing positions, Scott’s streakiness, Atkins’s dropoff, or B-Rob getting older.

But, as pointed out at Dempsey’s Army, it all comes down to the starting pitching. And we have no idea what we can reasonably expect this year, even though at least Matusz and Tillman should be very good to great in the future. If Millwood is durable and league-average, Guts bounces back, Bergesen is 2009 post-Wieters/pre-Butler Bergy, and Matusz/Tillman improve, this team should have a winning season. But if Millwood breaks down or has an ERA approaching 5.00, Guthrie is 2009 Guts, Bergy has a sophomore slump, and Matusz/Tillman struggle, it’ll be almost as bad as last year.

So, do I think this team can win 81+ games? Absolutely. Do I think they will? I have no idea. But April can’t come soon enough either way.

Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

by Vuff on Feb 18, 2010 10:08 AM EST reply actions  

Yup...

…how all this youth will turn out is anyone’s guess right now. But there is more hope than there’s been in quite a while around these parts. I do expect more than 64 wins, but I have no idea how many more.

by Jonny Pops on Feb 18, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm hoping for a winning season

Everyone knows I’m a big time optimist (guilty). I expect 12 wins from Millwood with an ERA under 4.50. Same for Guthrie. Bergesen may be good for an ERA under 4.00 and maybe 12-15 wins. Tillman is a question mark and no one knows the answer. I’d like to see Jim Palmer give him some pointers. Maybe 12 wins. Matusz will be the bright star. I really hope to see him win 15+ with an ERA under 3.50.
I expect Roberts to be Roberts and Markakis to rebound a bit. Tejada will hit around .300 and field ok. Josh Fields will stay in Norfolk til September. Iztruris will field ok, play in 125 games and hit .250. I hope Atkins rebounds to hit .290 with power, but if not, we’ll see Snyder by June. We may anyway. Wieters will field well and hit .300 with 25 HRs. Reimold will calm down some and hit .280 with 20+ HRs as will Jones. Scott will continue to be streaky and wind up at .270 with 25 HRs.
 Overall, this team will be fun to watch and can beat anyone on a good night. They will be competitive this year and beat up on lesser opponents. I look for 85 wins.

by fuddnelson on Feb 18, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

if all that happens

We are looking at playoffs. I expect not to be .500 because of reasons Vuff explains. The pitching can/will be ugly

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 18, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Pitching will

take its lumps here and there BUT it was getting lumped all year last year. Matusz and Bergy seemed very poised on the mound last year. Tillman is the big question but if he slipps we would get to see Arrieta or maybe even Britton (in the 2nd half) I havnt been this excited for the Os since the early 90s. Finally we have home grown talent from our farm system not paying for 35 yr old washups

by siglin83 on Feb 18, 2010 1:58 PM EST reply actions  

I don't see any way that Britton ends up in the majors this year

He hasn’t pitched yet above A+, and is buried on the depth chart behind Millwood, Guthrie, Bergy, Matusz, Tillman, Hernandez, Berken, Arrieta, Patton, and Erbe.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Feb 18, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I know

but I did see something somewhere that depending on how everything goes it could be an outside chance later in the 2nd half. But you are right we would see Arrieta, Patton or Erbe up first all depending on their numbers unless Britton was lighting it up. However I dont think you see Berken or Hernandez SP this year unless its a spot start or they are really impressive in the spring or out of the pen

by siglin83 on Feb 18, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I think we definitely see more of Berken and Hernandez

Put it this way, last season, the Yankees had as healthy of a rotation as you could dream of, with four pitchers making more than 30 starts. They still used nine different starting pitchers and eight pitchers started six or more games.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Feb 18, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh No!! Not Berken

We may see Hernandez out of the bullpen this year, but I really hope we’ve seen the last of Berken as a starter. With Arrieta, Erbe and Patton available in Norfolk, I’m hoping Berken is a memory. Seriously, I expect both Berken and Hernandez to be in the minors this summer unless Hernandez beats out Meredith/Albers/Sarfate for the middle relief role or someone gets hurt.

by fuddnelson on Feb 18, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't really see a reason

to let Berken start again unles he absolutely tears it up in Norfolk. Which is where he SHOULD open the season.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 19, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

and he wasnt even invited to ST…

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 18, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

blah

sorry I was looking for where i read that but I cant find it now. I know he didnt get the invite to ST. He wasnt (and I wasnt) talking about him as a real viable option later into the second half but was just saying depending on the other P in the minors and how he does he was still talked about as an outside chance this year but I hope it doesnt get to that because that would obveously mean there were injurys or the young 3 arnt getting the job done

by siglin83 on Feb 18, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

By the way

I would like to thank all of you that have commented. If you agree or disagree this is my first posting. Thanks again

by siglin83 on Feb 18, 2010 2:00 PM EST reply actions  

Very

optimistic posting. Wish I shared your optimism. And I sure hope your are correct! :-)

"When I wake up now, I don't have breakfast. I try to make something, but it's no good. I just go to Starbucks and eat chocolate." - Alex Ovechkin

by williamhudsonlink on Feb 24, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Putting it in that context as opposed to just ERA is much more eye opening

Thats horrible

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'"
Earl Weaver

by matman008 on Feb 18, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

Thats exactly

what I thaught when I started to compare the SP’s last year

by siglin83 on Feb 18, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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