Community Prospect List #12

I have been bearish on Patton since he had that shoulder injury, so we’ll see there. I think givens has a leg up on avery b/c he can revert to pitching if SS doesnt work. Its almost a safety net beyond him just being a toolsy position prospect. Also position scarcity plays a big role in how i value a player.

Its all a mix of ceiling, floor, likelyness to reach the ceiling and likelyness to stick at a particular position in my mind.

I dont rank a prospect differently based on the depth ahead of him or behind him. Although, if you have 3 excellent prospects, they cant all be #1 in the system. If one was moved to another system, they could be the #1 guy. I believe that seeing that a guy is #3 on the list does affect how people view him.

I believe being a “proven” prospect is when you have played well in AA or AAA. When you play at AA or AAA people are expecting results (stats) from you. Players at A+ and below are usually younger and still need work.

Avery did hit .260 in A ball but he was only 19 playing with guys older than him. You also have to look at other stats like OPS+ to take into account the rest of the league. One example of this is Twins’ prospect Aaron Hicks put up a .735 OPS in A ball which doesn’t look so good on paper. But his OPS+ was +109 (i think) which would make his OPS better than the league average. He batted .251 on the season also in A ball, like Avery.

I also believe that prospects coming straight out of the draft are valued higher than others. Givens is receiving more attention than Avery because he was drafted in 2009 while Avery was drafted in 2008.

…I’ll echo the two previous responders who said that organizational scarcity doesn’t matter much – prospects are as or more valuable as trade bait as they are likely to contribute to the club in the long run.

But tools matter, in my opinion much more important than we’ve been giving credit for in this prospect list. Patton isn’t downgraded because of system depth; he’s downgraded because he is someone whose stuff was always questionable, even when he was a top prospect for the Astros, and because his injury could result in a permanent diminishing of that stuff to a point where he might not be a viable major leaguer. No matter how well Patton pitches in the minors, those doubts will (and should) persist until he proves he has the ability to get out major league hitters.

Remember, Patton made his major league debut in 2007. He first mastered AA in 2006 – four seasons ago now. And he’s had two passes at AAA, once with Round Rock in the PCL and then with us in Norfolk, and he didn’t exactly dominate AAA the first time, before he got hurt. Paying too much attention to Patton’s third attempt at AA seems pretty silly to me.