AL East by Position: First Base

by Stacey on Feb 3, 2010 10:09 PM EST in Commentary Comment 62 comments

Continuing the review of Orioles and their divisional rivals by position, here is my ranking and rundown of the first basemen in the AL East:

1. Mark Teixeira (Yankees) - Orioles fans are quite familiar with Mark Teixeira (and it's fair to say he knows how we feel about him). In 2009, the switch-hitting Yankee co-led the AL with 39 HR and hit .292/.383/.565. He'll likely be just as good in 2010, another big bat in a lineup full of big bats. I don't really have much to say about Mark Teixeira, except that I still get annoyed when I think about all of his double talk.

2. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) - For all of the hoopla surrounding Teixeira, I honestly don't think he's all that much better than Kevin Youkilis. Offensively Teixeira is clearly superior thanks to his power but Youkilis gets on base a ton, has a killer eye for the plate, and if you put any stock in clutch stats it's worth noting that he hits the best when there are two outs and runners in scoring position. And as far as defense goes Youkilis is the better player (don't let Teixeira's gold glove fool you). Over the past three years Youkilis has put up UZR/150 of 10.3, 4.0, and 15.2 at 1B and his career UZR/150 at 1B is 6.5. Teixeira, conversely, put up a -5.2, 9.3, -4.1 and has a career UZR/150 of 1.7. If you're a fan of the Fielding Bible, Youkilis makes the top ten for first basemen nearly every year. Teixeira doesn't.

3. Carlos Peña (Rays) - While Peña isn't as complete a player as Teixeira and Youkilis, he's very good and I always feel a little bitter when I see his name. It's nothing against him, rather the bitterness is directed towards the Orioles. I searched high and low on the internet for the quote from Peña where he said the was in talks with the Orioles but they couldn't work anything out and thus he ended up with the Rays, but I couldn't. Did I dream that? Anyway, apparently the Orioles and Peña just couldn't come to terms so he signed with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for $800,000. Over the past three years Peña has played 422 games and put up a line of .252/.382/.553 with 116 home runs. Orioles first basemen in that same time frame have hit .263/.337/.442 with 64 HR. Good job, Orioles. Anyway, Peña is likely to hit at least 30 HR in 2010 and he's coming into a contract year so who knows.

4. Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays) - Lyle Overbay is no star but he's had a very solid major league career. He'll be 33 years old in 2010 and is coming off of one of his most productive seasons. The way the Blue Jays lineup has shaken out he'll probably be one of their most productive players.

5. Garrett Atkins (Orioles) - And now we get down to it. Atkins has been discussed to death here. I am hoping hoping hoping that Atkins makes the comeback that Andy MacPhail seems to think he's capable of. Atkins may be on the wrong side of 30 and coming off three straight years of declining production, but he's ours now so let's all pretend like he has a chance of being good.

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I have a pretty good imagination, but...

even I can’t pretend like Garrett Atkins has a chance of being good.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 3, 2010 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It could be worse

We could be Kansas City and have Mike Jacobs as our first baseman. I think Garrett can squeeze an OPS higher than the .698 Mike Jacobs had last year.

Just ask Stacey. I’m sure on more than one occasion she flung her remote at the tv because of him.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Feb 3, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shouldn't have been so lazy

Should’ve seen that Atkins OPS last year was .650.

But Atkins has a bigger upside right? Right?

by jobe on Feb 3, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And the Royals released Jacobs

They’re living large with Billy Butler now.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 3, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely our weak spot

1st base is probably our weakest position – so no surprise here.

Maryland Golf | Virginia Golf

by neilsav on Feb 3, 2010 11:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I’m not 100% sure, but I imagine that we won’t have 5th place at any other position.

2B : Roberts is really pretty good, and I’d have a hard time seeing him behind everybody, but it is possible I suppose. Most likely candidate for last place strangely enough.
SS : Cesar’s Glove really is awesome. He’s way better than Alex Gonzalez
3B : Miggi > Edwin Encarnacion
LF : I honestly have no idea who’s playing LF for the MFY. Ellsbury is pretty good for Boston. Carl Crawford’s tough to beat out. Travis Snider is a developing prospect that has yet to deliver. I’d imagine Reimold is 3rd place here? Unless the Yankees secretly sign someone ridiculous to be their left fielder
CF : Adam Jones is awesome.
RF : Nick Markakis is awesome.
DH : Pat Burrell really declined. Luke Scott ought to rank ahead.

by math_geek on Feb 3, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

doing that just demonstrated to me how much the Blue Jays will suck this year. Wow.

by math_geek on Feb 3, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i know this is crazy

so i’m saying it quietly in an open thread and not as a main post or something.

but we could actually be better than .500 this year. we’re going to score a shit-ton of runs, and our pitching is vastly improved from last year. i know, i know, kool aid, etc, but still…… i got a funny feeling.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 4, 2010 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As long as the pitching is above average I think we have an excellent shot at .500. The offense will score enough that the pitching won’t have to be great and still win. If by some off the wall chance two of Bergesen/Tillman/Matusz turn into allstars and Guthrie/Millwood are decent then this team could actually be really good.

Поклон перед вашим капитаном!

by Knubles and Bits on Feb 4, 2010 1:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and we might make the promised land

otherwise known as “slightly ahead of the blue jays”

by twistedlogic on Feb 4, 2010 7:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You know what's crazy...

I’m playing Baseball Mogul 2010 with all the rosters updated as of 1/31/10, and right I’ve managed the Orioles to a 9-4 record. Nolan Reimold is flirting with .400 and has hit 6 HRs, Tejada is batting .450 and it seems every at-bat he drives in runs, and Adam Jones and Atkins both have 4 HRs. Matusz threw a complete game shutout against the Yankees in his first start. Millwood gets knocked around like crazy, though…

Man, if only the real-life season would start out as good. I do agree with you, zk, I think (hope) we can break .500…..

"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."

by NewYorkOriole on Feb 4, 2010 8:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Potentially

The O’s scored 741 runs last year, which was really middling (and dead last in the division…so you can talk all you want about the Blue Jays losing a lot more games without Halladay but they were better than the Orioles in both facets of the game in 2009)., but upgrading to Tejada over Mora and Atkins over Huff ’09 (which is probably a wash, really), and the up-ticks Wieters, Reimold, Pie, Markakis, and Jones should get should more than offset the down-ticks from Roberts, Izturis, and Scott…

still, I’m not sure that the Orioles make it 800 runs scored. Maybe 775ish, but that would still last in the division in 2009. I mean, if nobody struggles and Wieters and Reimold have break-out seasons, then sure, the sky’s the limit. But that’s not particularly realistic.

Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.

by Andrew @ TLC on Feb 4, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth

Which doesn’t seem like much given all the issues they’ve had this year, Baseball Prospectus is projecting the Orioles to score 784 runs and allow 797 runs. They’ve got the Blue Jays at 710 RS/801 RA in 2010.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: e i g h t y – t w o .

Yes, I am off my meds. What ’s that got to do with it?!?

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Feb 5, 2010 6:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

let's not go overboard

as readily possible as it seems, I think that .500 is a little lofty. next year for sure though.
baby steps here people, baby steps.

http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
spread the word please!

by danielreese05 on Feb 9, 2010 8:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

This is just not fair. Signing Atkins doesn’t really matter, but it doesn’t make it any less of a mistake.

by math_geek on Feb 3, 2010 11:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Huge gap before Overbay and even larger before Atkins...

Garrett Atkins is a lot like Ty Wigginton and a complete waste IMO. I find this move unbelievably puzzling. Signing a guy “with a lot to prove” doesn’t seem like a good idea. Adam Eaton had a lot to prove too.

Question about the signing. This was from the Sun:

The Orioles did plenty of research on Atkins, including a study on how the Rockies’ hitters-friendly ballpark, Coors Field, affects different players.

Does anyone know WTF this research was?

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 4, 2010 1:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone know WTF this research was?

Probably involved rats, mazes, and cheese wheels.

Поклон перед вашим капитаном!

by Knubles and Bits on Feb 4, 2010 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Give Atkins a chance, people.

You all have him buried before spring training even starts. McPhail and Crowley think Garrett Atkins had a bad year and will rebound. Look at his career and compare it to the guys that have played 1B for the Orioles lately. Up until last year he was a pretty good hitter with some power. I, for one, am willing to give Crowley and Atkins a chance. If he can rebound to his productivity before 2009, he is a real prize. If not, we can move on to Brandon Snyder in June. What do we have to lose? Support the guy and give him a chance. You people will look pretty stupid if he is hitting .300 with power in June.

by fuddnelson on Feb 4, 2010 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I've looked at his career. It's on decline.

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2006 26 157 695 602 117 198 48 1 29 120 79 76 .329 .409 .556 .965 136
2007 27 157 684 605 83 182 35 1 25 111 67 96 .301 .367 .486 .853 113
2008 28 155 664 611 86 175 32 3 21 99 40 100 .286 .328 .452 .780 96
2009 29 126 399 354 37 80 12 1 9 48 41 58 .226 .308 .342 .650 66

Dudes with those kind of declining numbers don’t just GET better. It’s likely he won’t be AS bad as he was in 2009 because how could he be? But it’s delusional to think he’s going to be 2006 or 2007 Garrett Atkins again.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It just seems weird to me to decline so much

right when he should be going into his peak.

by O'sFan21 on Feb 4, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here are some more numbers

Home/Coors Field and away splits

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see any numbers

by fuddnelson on Feb 4, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

did you click the links?

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've been having a problem on CC recently

sometimes some of the bodies of posts aren’t showing up and I have to highlight the body for it to become visible again. It’s rare but it has happened 4 or 5 times over the past month. Maybe that’s why they couldn’t see the numbers?

by daveh873 on Feb 4, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

really?

Weird. If it does that again let me know and I’ll tell our support people to take a look.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And here's what the Orioles got out of first base in '09

In total (between New Aubrey, Old Aubrey, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, and Oscar Salazar):

.263/.321/.414 with a .736 OPS

On the bright side, Atkins can feasibly match that output. On the bad side: whoop-de-fucking-doo, we still have a bad first baseman.

Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.

by Andrew @ TLC on Feb 4, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If that's all Atkins can do

I’m ready to bail on him, too. Snyder or Bell can’t be worse than that. No, I’m hoping for a return to form for Atkins. Not a return to last year’s production.

by fuddnelson on Feb 4, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would be pleasantly surprised if Atkins OPS’ed 736 this year

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 4, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm looking at the same numbers

but I included 2005 (his first full year). Yes, his numbers have been on the decline, but not so as to expect a year like he had in 2009. Through 2008, his average year was a .301 batting average with 22 HRs, and 36 doubles. My understanding was that Colorado had a young slugging 3B coming up that Clint Hurdle wanted on the field. Atkins had some minor problems coming out of spring training and as a result he never got going. By May, he had lost his starting job to Ian Stewart and Hurdle never gave him a chance for consistent at bats after that. I am not expecting Atkins to reclaim his 2006 or 2007 production. I am willing to give him a chance to revitalize his career though. If he still isn’t hitting in late May or early June and either Snyder or Bell is ready, then that is the time to bail on Garret Atkins. Just don’t quit on him before spring training. Some of the Orioles reclamation projects have been ok (Pie) and some have not (Hill & Eaton). I just think that the Orioles saw some possibilities in Atkins and I’m willing to wait and see.

by fuddnelson on Feb 4, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude I hope you're right

Really, I do. I personally cannot ignore the consistently declining numbers.

And it’s a little absurd to compare Pie to Atkins IMO.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Atkins should bounce back some, but I doubt he eclipses his 2008 numbers. He’s on the wrong side of 30, has been not in decline but in complete free-fall for a couple of years now (its not like we’re talking about a fluke bad year here)., and is coming to the AL East. He’s going to have a rough go of it. This is just set up for disaster.

But he should bounce back some. I doubt he’s as bad as he looked in ‘09. I doubt he’s as good as he looked even in ’08 though. The only good news here is that the bar was set so low for the Orioles in 2009 that he ought to look acceptable as a placeholder.

Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.

by Andrew @ TLC on Feb 4, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stacey,

The term “dude” is not complimentary and in fact is a form of derision used to address a fool who is pretending to be more than he is (ie: Dude Ranch). Since you do not know me, I must assume you did not intend to address me in that derisive manner. I am no dude. I’ve been an Oriole fan for fifty years and although I plead guilty to occasionally drinking too much orange koolaid, and also guilty of extreme optimism in February, I prefer not to be addressed as “Dude”.

by fuddnelson on Feb 4, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

Thank you so much for teaching me that lesson, sir.

Seriously, dude is not intended to be derogatory and regardless of its origins people do not use it today as an insult. Do you think the Dude Where’s My Car dudes intended it to be an insult? Of course not!

I’ll try to be more aware of your sensitivities in the future, but please pardon me if I slip up. I call people that all the time.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not that impressed with the term.

I don’t consider it demeaning or anything. More a case of either laziness or conformity. But I also recognize it as a generational thing. Like duck says below, depending on what you watched and how old you when when doing so, you are bound to pick up habits in talking.

I try to take that into account whenever I see or hear it, so I don’t automatically think I’m dealing with a moron lacking in originality.

Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.

by timg56 on Feb 5, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

passive aggressive much?

by kba26 on Feb 5, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't do passive aggressive.

Not much on passive anything.

Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.

by timg56 on Feb 8, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what would be the non-lazy response?

It’s just a way to address someone. Y’all need to get over it.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 5, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer El Duderino.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Feb 5, 2010 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know.

At least not without giving it some thought.

Perhaps a better example is the prediliction to come up with nicknames for people. I see this perhaps more in basketball than baseball.

Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.

by timg56 on Feb 8, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know, right?

Something like that is so typical for a chick to say.

by daveh873 on Feb 4, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chill dude!

by O'sFan21 on Feb 4, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a number of people use "dude" as a familiarity, to imply a certain ease of speaking with someone.

I’m one of those people, in fact. But to each his own.

Cowboys and the Wild West are indelibly set in the minds of many as typical of America-an association borne out by several common Modern English words that originated in the speech of the 19th-century western United States. One is dude, now perhaps most familiar as a slang term with a wide range of uses (including use as an all-purpose interjection for expressing approval: “Dude!”). Originally it was applied to fancy-dressed city folk who went out west on vacation. In this usage it first appears in the 1870s. The origin of the word is not known, but a number of other cowboy terms were borrowed by early settlers from American Spanish. These include buckaroo, corral, lasso, mustang, ranch, rodeo, and stampede. Buckaroo, interestingly, is an example of a word borrowed twice: it is an Americanized form of Spanish vaquero, which also made it into English as vaquero, a cowboy.

link

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 4, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am more than happy to drop dude

and replace it with buckaroo

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Feb 4, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hombre.

by O'sFan21 on Feb 4, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hoss

Personally, I’m sticking with Dude. I can’t imagine a world where “dude” is used as an insult, and am frankly surprised that anyone could be bothered by it’s use in this fashion.

by PhilR8 on Feb 4, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

women use it all the time

you’re such a dude. it never takes a positive connotation.

by twistedlogic on Feb 4, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Always liked hoss.

by O'sFan21 on Feb 5, 2010 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which reminds me-- what was Hoss Cartwright's actual NAME supposed to be (on "Bonanza")?

“Horse”? Was he doing smack? And please don’t answer What the hell’s “Bonanza”?

Oh, and what was “Opie” supposed to be short for on “The Andy Griffin Show”? It couldn’t have been “opium.”

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Feb 5, 2010 6:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

p.s. Did You Know...?

“Bonanza” was actually nothing more than “The Brothers Karamazov” on horseback. Think about it.

Lorne Green / Ben = Fyodor.
Pernell Roberts / Adam = Ivan
Dan Blocker / Eric “Hoss” = Dmitry
Michael Landon / Little Joe = Alyosha
Victor Sen Yung / Hop Sing = Smerdyakov

All right, Hop Sing is a mild stretch as the bastard son / actual murderer, but you gotta admit, these obvious parallels can’t all be coincidence…

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Feb 5, 2010 6:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Way to spoil the book for me!

And I was going to read that this summer, too. Probably at your palatial family estate, Titov.

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 5, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Da Bruddahs K can't be spoiled!

Arguably the greatest novel ever written (and the other candidates include another Dostoevsky [The Possessed/Devils] and a Tolstoy or two [W & P, Anna K], by gum), there’s just too much there there for any discrete piece of info about a character to matter much. So grab a hammock and dig into that sucker!

Did You Know?: In the Hollywood movie of The Brothers Karamazov, featuring Lee J. Cobb, Yul Brynner and various other known entities, the role of Alyosha was played by a young Canadian actor later to become famous as the captain of a TV starship that went where no man had bothered to go before, or something. CAN YOU NAME HIM?!?

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Feb 6, 2010 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why hasn't The Big Lebowski figured in this conversation?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be7Og9Gc_KY&feature=related

p.s. You could also swith to “Dood.”

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Feb 5, 2010 7:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+ 2 for oblique reference to Buckaroo Banzai, the Rohrshach-test movie of the 80's

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Feb 5, 2010 6:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm the biggest offender

so I apologize in advance.

I watched Sean Penn as Jeff Spicoli in “Fast Times at Ridgemont High” a few too many times….

"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal

by duck on Feb 5, 2010 8:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I consider it disrespectful -

and have for over 20 years!

But have long since stopped barking at the moon about it.

You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.

by sluggo 2.0 on Feb 6, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Away from Coors Field from 2007 to 2009, Atkins OPS was 696. American Leaguers with at least 300 at bats who posted a better OPS in 2009: Elvis Andrus (the light hitting SS), Jason Varitek, Clete Thomas, Luis Valbuena, Ty Wigginton, etc. And this covers the 2007 and 2008 seasons. And this guy is going to play first base against new, better, pitchers?

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 4, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stupid?

Even if he is hitting .300 with power in June, nobody here will look stupid. It is stupid to predict a player over 30 in decline will rebound. Yes, it happens. I hope it happens with Atkins. But, it is very unlikely that he will return to his former numbers. We have hundreds of examples of players just like Atkins in major league history, and most of them do not ever get close to their peak years again.

by uneasy rider on Feb 4, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

" We have hundreds of examples of players just like Atkins in ~~major league~~ [Orioles] history, and most of them do not ever get close to their peak years again"

by daveh873 on Feb 4, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

at least it's not a three year deal

we should still at least give him a chance, at least it’s not three years for Aubrey Huff. Who was also declining (I know not nearly as bad), but he was from 03-07 before he hit 30 home runs again. I was 12 the last time the O’s were good, all I have is optimism, I need to pretend he at least won’t be as bad as last year.

by tjk on Feb 4, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is stupid to predict a player over 30 in decline will rebound.

No, it is stupid to make gross generalizations about players as though they were robots.

You know, baseball players are actually people, not statistics. It all depends on the player and the situation. Just because x% of players of 30 don’t rebound doesn’t mean that there isn’t a corresponding y% of players who do.
And those who do probably succeed because of something specific about why they declined and/or their new situation. This is what MacPhail was referring to.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Feb 4, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs