Community Prospect List #8
by Jordan Tuwiner on Feb 4, 2010 7:48 PM EST
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PrintWith 59% of the vote, Matt Hobgood is awarded the title of the CC's #7 prospect!
List so far:
1. Brian Matusz
2. Josh Bell
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Zach Britton
5. Brandon Erbe
7. Matt Hobgood
Candidates for #8 prospect:
Xavier Avery
Cameron Coffey
Michael Ohlman
Mychal Givens
Poll is listed in alphabetical order.
Looking forward to when this list gets past the obvious choices.
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Coming up on the young ones...
There are a lot of guys from the 2009 draft that could make this list, but I like Joseph for this round and Mickolio for the next; strongly considering Coffey after that.
I’d have to think that in the coming years some prep draft picks from 2007 and 08 will break into our view as prospects. That is, unless Stockstill missed horribly in the draft.
I agree with this
Its hard to distinguish between the prep players at the moment but time will answer that for us. So after Mickolio and Joseph its really a toss up.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 5, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
I've got to go Mickolio here....
…the kid looked dominating in the majors in his limited time.
I’m a bit lower on Joseph than I think a lot of people here are. He just doesn’t seem to have a plus tool outside of his contact. I see a good chance that his work ethic isn’t enough to get him past his lack of tools at higher levels. I hope I’m wrong, but right now I’m inclined to put Avery over him.
Did you read Roch's latest post on Joseph?
by Jordan Tuwiner on Feb 4, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
I did
And before he closed it up, I used to read his blog. He’s a great-sounding kid, and I hope that he succeeds, and not just because he’s an O’s prospect. He’s a really hard worker who deserves it.
But a lot of seventh round picks out of college have a decent year with the bat in A+ at 23. We talk about whether or not Brandon Snyder is a legit bat – he was 22 last year in AA and AAA. The idea that Joseph is nearly as high on our prospect list as Snyder strikes me as a bit ridiculous.
The average age in the Caroline league is around 23
Joseph was destroying pitching before he faded late in the season. He was leading the league in batting average by a good 40-50 points. I’ve talked to his personal coach and he’s said that Joseph is really trying to bulk up and prove he can handle catcher. I can’t wait to see what he can do.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Feb 4, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm excited too
Like I said, I’m pulling for him.
But he’s still a marginal C/C+ prospect. Batting average isn’t the most important metric for a prospect, of course. And age relative to league matters. We’re not even voting on Waring, for example, and he did even better offensively than Joseph.
I agree, he’s a great kid who is working his ass off to make the majors. If you want to dream on him, you can see him as the next Craig Biggio with less steals and maybe a bit more power. But Biggio is the exception. Tools do matter. Without some serious improvement, Joseph projects as a guy who will be lucky to be a career backup catcher. What’s his absolute ceiling, honestly, Jason Kendall? Russell Martin?
Meanwhile, Mickolio and Lebron are potential closers, and Avery is a potential Lofton who held his own in A ball at 19 without a lot of high school experience. I love Joseph, and I think he’s a great guy to have in our system. But he’s simply not our eighth best prospect.
But he's a catcher
Which is what excuses it. If he can have a career OPS of 750 in the major leagues that means he’s a legitmate starting catcher in this league. Even a decent catcher is hard to find. Whereas Snyder and Waring play first base, they better hit the ball real well if they want to get AB’s in the majors.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 5, 2010 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
A 750 OPS at catcher is fine...
…if you’re a good defensive catcher. And Joseph isn’t one yet. In addition, a .750 OPS in the majors is a bit much to project from a guy with a .787 OPS in the Carolina league.
I didnt intend to say that he would
I was just simply making the point that what is good to get from a catcher is barely passable to get from your 1B. So to anytime you compare Joseph to Waring or Snyder you have to consider that.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 5, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
You have to factor in the fatigue
Before he got tired, his OPS was around .880. Not saying he could have kept that up, but he was playing really well. If he can bulk up I can see him being able to stay healthy for a full season. How would you judge him if he OPS’d .850 instead of .787? He’s also pretty fast for a catcher.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Feb 5, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
How would you judge him if he OPS’d .850 instead of .787? He’s also pretty fast for a catcher.
Well, it depends. The trouble is that even then, it was based almost entirely on batting average. Which is why the lack of tools matters to me. If he had a lower batting average but made up for it with power or discipline, I’d think more of it.
I feel like I’m beating up on Joseph now, which isn’t my intent. He’s a good prospect, and deserves to be 10/11 in our system until the 2009 class starts playing.
Its ok to beat up on a prospect even if you do think he’s decent. I tend to beat up on Snyder even though he made great strides last year and its exciting to possibly get something out of a prospect that I wrote off. That being said I dont think nearly as high of him as other people do. So its good to play devils advocate in places like that.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 5, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Well
He apparently is a good defensive catcher. He was ranked the best defensive catcher in the system by Baseball America, although I don’t know how good his competition is
Yeah
I’m just not putting much faith in BA’s ranking there, because that runs contrary to every other report I’ve seen. I feel like BA must have only considered Joseph’s defense against the other catchers in the system they deemed legit prospects or something – I haven’t heard anything about Joseph’s D that puts him alongside Bernando in terms of defensive ability, for example.
mickolio
I went with Mickolio because I think he’s a much surer bet to reach have a career in the majors. I’m not sure that Joseph has the plate discipline to succeed as he advances.
Librarians are hiding something
I voted Mickolio
but Caleb’s next by my count. According to Baseball America he was the top defensive catcher in the Baltimore organization while he also had a great year with the bat.
His older age is a concern because most players that old should dominate the league similar to Joseph. He’s used to facing tougher pitching. However many college players start out in short season A and then move up to advanced A so it’s not a total deal-breaker.
Looking at Caleb’s peripherals it’s clear that he improved. He cut his strikeout by about 7% and increased his walk rate slightly by .6%. This is a nice improvement especially considering that Caleb reportedly wore down as the season went on with his extra 40 games
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