AL East by Position: Center Field
by Stacey on Mar 1, 2010 3:35 PM EST
in Commentary & Analysis
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PrintAs depressing as comparing the AL East infielders was, that's how fun comparing the outfielders is. I had a hard time deciding between Adam Jones and B.J. Upton for the top spot, but when I saw that Joe Posnanski thinks Adam Jones is the best CF in the AL East I figured what the hell. I think that it'll be fun debating which is better over the next five plus years even with Upton's disappointing 2009.
1. Adam Jones (Orioles) - Jonesy started 2009 like a man possessed, hitting .344/.398/.607 with 13 2B and 11 HR over the first two months of the season. It earned him a place on the All Star team and had all of Birdland giddy over his performance. He dropped off significantly in the second half as he slumped offensively and struggled with injury, being shut down for the season at the beginning of September. If Adam Jones can stay healthy for the entire season and work on that little problem he has with chasing awful pitches, the sky is the limit for our guy.
2. B.J. Upton (Rays) - After an amazing 2007 where he hit .300/.386/.508 with 24 HR, Upton looked like a superstar in the making. His numbers came back to earth in 2008 as he hit .273/.383/.401 with just 9 HR, but those numbers combined with his outstanding defense still made him one of the most valuable outfielders in baseball that year. After the 2008 season, though, Upton underwent shoulder surgery and spent most of 2009 getting himself back up to full strength. He was never able to get himself together offensively and finished the year with a disappointing .686 OPS. It's hard to say how Upton will do in 2010 but personally I think he'll be just fine. If he gets himself back to even his 2008 offensive numbers he'll on the list of elite outfielders.
3. Curtis Granderson (Yankees) - I was bummed when Curtis Granderson got traded to the Tigers because I love Curtis Granderson. He's been at the top of my favorite non-Orioles list for years now. I still like him but now I don't feel so great about it. To paraphrase a quote once made about Brooks Robinson, Granderson is a good baseball player but more importantly a good man. He's very involved in giving back to the community, he served as an ambassador for Major League Baseball in other countries, he's an all around classy dude, AND he's a guest blogger at Big League Stew. What's not to like? But now Granderson is a Yankee and will be patrolling CF for the most storied team in the history of teams, and it's going to be kind of weird. He's a superior outfielder and offensively has made a career out of hitting for enough power to have a HR total in the low twenties and having enough speed to leg out double digit triples. Making the move to Yankee Stadium will surely lower the triples total but probably give the left handed hitter a boost in home runs.
4. Mike Cameron (Red Sox) - The oldest player on this list, Mike Cameron will start the 2010 season at 37 years old. When he was drafted in 1991 the three players above him on this list were in grammar school. That being said, Cameron is still an outstanding defensive centerfielder. He'll fit in nicely with the Red Sox focus on defense this year and he'll probably be just fine with the bat as well. Cameron has been in the NL since 2004 and might see his numbers drop a bit with a move to the AL East but he can probably be counted on to hit about 20 HR with an OPS of about .800.
5. Vernon Wells (Blue Jays) - In the winter before the 2007 season the Jays signed Wells to a 7 year, $126M extension (to start in 2008) and they've been regretting it pretty much ever since. Wells was 27 years old and coming off of a fine year where he hit .303/.357/.542 with 32 HR and 40 2B. He celebrated his new contract in 2007 by hitting just .245/.304/.402, in 2008 by missing a bunch of time with a broken wrist and then a sprained hamstring, and in 2009 by just plain sucking. To top it off, Wells is hardly a gem in center field. In 1200 career games he has a UZR/150 in CF of -5.7 and he's posted negative numbers in fielding runs above average the past two years. The Blue Jays have to just suck it up and hope he figures things out, though, because they owe him $98.5M over the next five years.
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the dropoff
From 1 and 2 is huge. AJ should continue to impress, BJ will finallly be fully healthy from injuries. Apparently the shoulder injury BJ had takes a couple years to fully recover from, so he should be back to his old self. Both of them are special players. Granderson is a platoon player, its silly to think otherwise. He’s a darn good option against righties but he wont OPS > 500 vs lefties. Cameron is super old and will probably start showing it soon and who knows if Wells will ever turn it around. Basically, its a mess after 1 and 2.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
yea
I guess i could have been clearer, from 1 and 2 or from 2 to 3. Same thing.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Mar 1, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Shadenfraude!
Reading that paragraph about Vernon Wells just warms my heart. Too bad it couldn’t have been the MFY’s mistake, although if it had they would have just released him and signed the best available FA to replace him. Or maybe kept him on the bench as the most expensive 4th OFer in history.
Vernon Wells' contract may be the worst in MLB right now
Even Barry Zito started winning games last year. I don’t know that Wells will ever be the player the Jays are paying for. I can’t imagine how Wells sleeps at night with the money he’s basically stealing from that franchise. And we botched about Jay Gibbons and his deal…
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
by duck on Mar 1, 2010 3:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm guessing he can only get to sleep
by laughing himself silly. It’d work for me.
I'll bet he sleeps fine
How do all the baseball execs sleep knowing they are getting Cy Youngs from Tim Lincecum for less than $1 million and he may well blow out his arm before hitting free agency? How did the Orioles feel about giving Jeremy Guthrie a pay cut in 2009? I don’t remember any of us clamoring for the O’s to give Markakis a bonus for his first two seasons where he was paid less than $1 million, or any of us saying that Adam Jones deserved a raise after going to an All-Star game and winning a Gold Glove.
The economics of baseball are inefficient, and nearly every player is making either much less or much more than they earn through play on the field. But it really baffles me why it bothers us so much more when that works out to the disadvantage of the owners of these teams.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
"us" = O's fans
I obviously wasn’t a member here then and for all I know, you could have been saying that Markakis should have gotten a raise right away.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
From what I remember
we were all in a hurry to get Markakis paid, but I think that had more to do with making sure we held on to the only bright spot we had on the team at the time (besides BriBob and Bedard at the time). I don’t think we really worry so much about the owners losing on contracts. I think it’s more that we just enjoy it when it happens to other teams.
I think we wanted him locked up sure
but I don’t think we really cared how much he was paid. If we could have had him on Evan Longoria’s terms, for example, I think we’d go around saying it was the “best contract in baseball” like Rays fans do. Only it isn’t the best contract in baseball, except from the perspective of Rays ownership.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Well yea I guess
I mean, we wouldn’t want the guy playing with a grudge or wanting a new contract all the time either. I think when it comes down to it, though, we want our players signed cheap because it gives us more financial flexibility and we want other teams to over pay, because it hurts them. I dont think anyone is rooting for the owners or against the players. Its all about wins and losses, and anything thing that helps the good guys end up on the right end of that spectrum is a good thing in our eyes.
There is that
And I am not one to side with ownership in most cases. But this contract was so completely undeserved, it’s hard not to feel some jealousy for someone doing so well financially while being so unbelievably bad at his job. But you guys are right – no one put a gun to the head of Jays ownership to give Wells that contract.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
by duck on Mar 1, 2010 4:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If there was a way to redistribute his money...
…to every player making the minimum in baseball, I’d approve. But it is just hard for me to get pissed off for the owners overpaying when I’m not pissed off about players being underpaid. It doesn’t break my heart that Strasburg got less than Chapman, for example, even though I know he deserved more.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
To be fair
the Giants tried to give Lincecum a lot more money than that and he turned it down. So I don’t really think they should feel bad over there.
The economics of baseball make sense to an extent
You are underpaid until you prove yourself and then you are grossly overpaid. Well, nobody there can complain about their salarys really. But the system encourages a team to develop talent and not just buy it. That doesnt stop the richest teams though obviously.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Mar 1, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Except that even inefficient markets aren't stupid
I don’t think there are a lot of Jamie Walker contracts in baseball’s future. The owners are getting smarter, and contracts make more sense.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Its true
But if the young players are still underpaid, then there is more money to go around that will in effect over-pay the free agents.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Mar 1, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think there are a lot of Jamie Walker contracts in baseball’s future.
Ed Wade says hi. Although I agree with your general point. Ed Wade seems to be lone moron in the room.
Bruce Springsteen rules.
Well
Brandon Lyon got 3 years/$15 million, but the Orioles gave Mike Gonzalez 2 years/$12 million and gave up a draft pick, so I’d say that there are a lot of teams overvaluing relief pitchers still.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
Gonzalez is a closer though. Closers have always received big money. I don’t think Lyon’s role has been defined yet for the Astros,* but he’s been a middle reliever. That’s insane money for a middle reliever.
- I heard an interview with Ed Wade on XM and I think he said Lyon will be one of several candidates for closer.
Bruce Springsteen rules.
He sleeps like Rainier Wolfcastle
On a bed full of money with many beautiful women.
by uneasy rider on Mar 2, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
There was this ridiculous article
on FoxSports.com after the Granderson trade where it talked about how Yankee fans will really be able to relate to the guy because he had to watch for the cheapest gas and bought McDonald’s hamburgers off the dollar menu and couldn’t afford to live in Manhattan…after signing his 30 million dollar contract. Blargh. It was a good start on bringing that guy down a notch, even if it weren’t his fault.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
Curtis Granderson is the only Yankee I will even think about drafting for FB.
Just seems like a cool dude. He didn’t demad a trade either.
Don't give up, don't ever give up. - Jim Valvano
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Mar 1, 2010 4:22 PM EST reply actions
Do yourself a favor and pass
He’s going to have an Adam Dunn like BA and more AB’s. I dont care if he goes 30-30, hes going to be drafted too high.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Mar 1, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Mariano
I have a hard time not liking Mariano Rivera. I think Jeter is as much of a douchebag as everybody else, but when Rivera laughed when PHN gave him a standing ovation to start the 2005 season, I couldn’t help but think well of him.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Mar 2, 2010 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
Vernon Wells looked like a good signing at the time. If he repeats his 2009 season again, the Jays should consider cutting him.
Bruce Springsteen rules.
meh
They have to pay him no matter what, so unless you feel like you’ve got 25 other better players then you may as well keep him.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Mar 1, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Keep him to do the clubhouse laundry if nothing else
but he’s getting that $98.5 M from the Blue Jays regardless, unless they manage to trade him.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
If the Blue Jays got a bag of baseballs for Wells, the Jays would still get the better end.
Don't give up, don't ever give up. - Jim Valvano
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Mar 1, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
It wouldnt even take that much
The jays would give him away if someone would take on that contract. you might even get a low prospect out of them.
They'll end up eating a chunk of that contract
just to get rid of him. No matter what, that deal is going to hurt them for a while.
They will have to eat a large chunk of it. Like 75%
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
He performed below replacement level last year so he’s actually a detriment to the team at his current pace. He’s a sunk cost so cut him.
Bruce Springsteen rules.
replacement level
is a hypothetical though – it would only work to cut him if they actually had a real live replacement level player to take his place.
But that's the thing
everyone has replacement players. They could sign like Jeff Fiorentino or David Dellucci or Corey Patterson etc. etc. etc.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
what I mean
is that just because you have replacement players in the factual sense (that they could replace your starter) doesn’t mean that they can actually produce at replacement player level.
I get it
but the whole concept of a “replacement player” is that he is just some dude in your system – a AAAA player, for example, who can play for the major league minimum and provide very, very little value. These guys are freaking everywhere, there’s almost no excuse for playing a guy with negative WARP.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
No
not in the sense that birdman used it – he used it referring to a statistical level of performance. That’s not just some random dude in anybody’s system – it’s the composite average performance of all of those random dudes in everybody’s system. So that means that half of them will perform better than that statistical level and half of them will perform worse than that statistical level (roughly). So it obviously would only make sense to cut him if their specific replacement for him could outperform him.
If the Blue Jays
are going to have that hard of a time finding a replacement or better level center fielder, they’ve got waaaaaaaaaay bigger problems than Vernon Wells’ contract.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
But
if you’re already paying him, and then you have to give up another player (even if it’s just minor league filler) to get the replacement level player then it’s that much more that you’re giving up for subpar talent.
My point is just that just because a guy is playing below replacement level doesn’t necessarily mean that particular team has a guy who can replace him.
As I have just a measley amount of baseball knowledge
(and I am learning slowly), I can’t really judge who’s better based on actual skills. But with my fan bias I’d like to say: I LOVE YOU ADAM JONES.
Complaining is good for you as long as you're not complaining to the person you're complaining about. - Lynn Johnston (I don't know who that is...but it's a good quote.)
Interesting stat
Wells vs lhp:
.206/.279/.602 – terrible right?
Granderson vs lhp:
.183/.245/.484 – If that doesn’t scream platoon i dont know what does.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
I gotta say
1-4 are all pretty good choices for centerfield. I suspect that any of that group could prove the most valuable in 2010 especially if looking at fangraphs’ wins stat. But that’s just me and I like Cameron a lot.
Oh yeah
I wasn’t that enthusiastic about Granderson, but I haven’t really been paying much attention ot him. I know that he’s had some great years before last year though
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