The Conundrum (aka, The Orioles Bullpen)
by SeanP on Mar 12, 2010 8:04 PM EST
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Who's in and who's out?
Apart from Brian Roberts' back injury, the bullpen seems to be the most pressing Spring Training issue for the O's. Four of the seven bullpen spots are already occupied by Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara, and Mark Hendrickson, while the remaining three spots are entirely up for grabs.
So, who would you pick for the remaining three spots in the bullpen? And who do you expect the Orioles to take?
List of competing players (from the Baltimore Sun website):
Matt Albers, Jason Berken, Alberto Castillo, David Hernandez, Cla Meredith, Kam Mickolio, Will Ohman, Dennis Sarfate, Alfredo Simon
Let me know if I missed anybody in that list.
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I like the idea of Hernandez in the 'pen,
but I don’t see that happening for two reasons: First,the Orioles want to keep a lefty specialist apart from Hendrickson in the bullpen. Second, he’s too valuable as a starter. In the instance that any of the starters are injured, Hernandez is a good guy to drop into the rotation for a few starts.
To elaborate on my picks
I think Hernandez and Mickolio could both be effective closers in the long run, and i’d like to see them both get some ML innings in the pen to see if that proves to be true. As far as Claw, well, he’s just a different arm slot to throw out there. He’s proved he can be effective for periods of time (until the divison gets used to him I suppose) so we might as well use him while he’s around.
You're right
I did ask who you would pick, good call.
My thoughts too
I am sure that Diamond Dave wants to have a situational lefty, but I think you go with the best seven guys you have. Mickolio could be the next closer, Hernandez seems like an ideal set up guy, and Meredith pitched well enough last year to earn a spot this year.
Librarians are hiding something
Ohman's done well enough to justify a spot
especially as a lefty. 3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5K’s so far. Yes, I know it’s ST, but those are among the best numbers on the club this spring.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
I'll take Mickolio, Castillo, and Meredith.
Mickolio is just short of being set on the 25-man roster. Dave Trembley loves him and has repeatedly said that a spot in the ‘pen is Mickolio’s to lose.
If Castillo can couple his good showing in September* with a solid (enough) spring, I would expect him to beat out Ohman for the lefty specialist spot.
I really only picked Meredith for his ground ball rate. He doesn’t really stand out from the rest of the pack, but he’s that going for him, which is nice. (Name that reference…)
I think Berken & Hernandez (notice how I mention them as a pair) both have a good chance of getting called up if anyone gets injured, but I’d like to see them start the year in the rotation at AAA.
Also, I think that there’s a possibility that Arrieta or Patton could be called up to the bullpen to get some major league experience, as Kranitz has mentioned multiple times.
*I know, it’s a sample size. I still think that it will have a big impact on the team’s decision.
This is my guess.
Trembley’s been raving about Mickolio enough that I can’t see him not making the team unless he looks awful from here on out.
Meredith was pretty decent last year, and the whole sidearm/submariner thing gives him bonus points, so he seems likely.
Ohman’s more of a hunch, but I’m guessing the O’s would like an actual situational lefty, and he’s been quite good in ST so far. And he rocks the high socks.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
I'm kind of excited about the names we're exlcuding
I mean, we’re picking from competent pitchers. We don’t have the NYY bullpen, but this year’s edition won’t be too bad, and may actually be pretty good.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
hey hey hey
what about me? i’ve looked pretty good so far, haven’t i? as long as i’m keeping it down, i’m great…
-phat
"you know what the orioles could use right now? a day off." - joe angel
I'm guessing one will be a lefty
They have Hendo in the pen but he’s more of a long guy. I like Will Ohman as a situational lefty/LOOGY (you know how Diamond Dave loves his match ups). Wilfredo Perez has looked really good but he’s never pitched above AA so they might want to send him down. Castillo is a career minor leaguer to call up when absolutely necessary, and that Hinkley kid looks like garbage.
For the two righties, Albers and The Claw have pitched really well but 1) I have no faith in Albers, and 2) Kam has been getting a lot of positive press. Albers has the “benefit” of having no more options. I’d go with Kam and Claw, but I won’t cry if Albers goes north. Kam has two options left, Meredith one.
I think they’ll send Hernandez and Berken, who both have looked good, to AAA to be starters. Hernandez especially I’m not ready to write off for being a starter, and if he can then we need to find out.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
If Hernandez does go to the bullpen
would he be a 1 inning guy or a long guy? I’ve always thought that starting pitchers who moved to the bullpen became the long guy by default.
Hendo seems to be the default long guy
looking at the list of possibilities, and he’s had success doing it.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Yeah
Albers also has a history of it, though more in 08 than 09. I’d think they could use Koji if needed every now and then too.
Sean, I think the thing that makes Hernandez seem like more of a one inning guy is his strikeout history and stuff. I know his fastball can hit the upper 90s and if he has to get out three guys he’ll be able to use that more to his advantage than if he has to go three or so innings. But I don’t know, honestly.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
I think Hernandez and Berken go back to AAA
and there’s a chance both end up better for the experience. I’m higher on Hernandez than Berken, but I’m betting if/when they are sent down, we haven’t heard the last of them.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Klaw, Mickolio, Ohman
Since we’ll probably bring up 11 arms the next one is either Sarfate or Berken depending on the need.
Hernandez might still be able to make it as a starter, Albers is ok, not great, Castillo’s pretty good but ohman is the better lefty. Berken while potentially able to be a back end starter is going to be squeezed out by the arms coming up behind him (if all goes well) so there’s not much benefit to leaving him in triple-A. Berken however could stand to learn down at Norfolk but he looks like he may end up a pretty decent swingman longter
Let Simon recover from TJ a little more and get him used to a bullpen role. He potentially could be intriguing, but since the Os may need an arm on back to back days Simon needs to recover a little before being considered.
or, as we like to call him at CC
Claw Megadeth
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
ok small change
Dropping Sarfate in favor of Albers. If his pitching this spring is due to a genuine improvement then he should be pretty good this year.
If Berken gained a few mph in the bullpen his velocity would be average instead of below-average leading to more strikeouts
below average? Where are you getting that?
according to fangraphs he averaged 92.2 mph – I don’t think that’s below average. I don’t think his lack of K’s are due to a lack of velocity but rather location and movement.
If it's me
I’m taking Albers, Meredith, and Ohman.
I figure all of these doods are going to see time in the bullpen at some point, and since Albers doesn’t have any options left, he’s definitely in just so as not to completely waste his value.
Meredith and Mickolio are the two main competitors (I’m not a Sarfate fan at all), and I love Meredith’s ground ball tendencies over Kam the Destroyer’s huge potential. That said, first time I need a bullpen arm, Kam’s coming up to stay.
As lame as it sounds, I’d probably give in to the TLR cliched bullpen use and bring in a lefty specialist, and Ohman’s as good an option as Castillo is. Plus he sounds like a cut-up, and that’s as good a way to break ties as any other in this particular game.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
i wish we could drop hendrickson
but i know that won’t happen, at least not unless he’s terrible first. i’d love to see hernandez take his place. he might look great coming in to throw 2-3 innings twice a week since you know our starters are bound to run into some pitch count issues. i don’t think he has anything left to prove in the minors. i like the old school, break ’em in as a long reliever approach.
Why drop Hendrickson?
His ERA was something like 3.70 out of the pen and he took a pay cut to come back.
Seriously, he's a guy with a use this season.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
because he's 36 this year...
so he’s not part of the long term solution, because last season was probably a fluke (he has a career 5.00 e.r.a.), because he’s boring, and because we have other guys i’d rather watch. if he does what he did last season he’ll be valuable, but valuable in a “we win 81 games instead of 79 games” kind of way.
it’s more because he’s blocking guys that i’d rather watch, not because i dislike him. but i’ll never be pumped to watch mark hendrickson jog in from the bullpen. i would, however, get excited to see hernandez or berken or mickolio or somebody who could be awesome one day.
agreed
hes def no great shakes, but if he pitches well, we just might find somebody else who could use him.
by twistedlogic on Mar 15, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
David Hernandez has a lot to prove in the minors
Where did this idea come from? The dude has 57 innings at AAA for his career, and carries a scouting report that he’s overpowering minor league hitters with a fastball that won’t cut it in the AL East. And he had an 83 ERA+ with an unsightly 2.4 HR/9 largely due to that very same scouting report holding true. So, yeah, I think he’s got plenty to prove in the minor leagues yet.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
i disagree
he’s struck out 618 in 534 minor league innings. what’s he going to learn by screwing around with minor leaguers who can’t touch his fastball for the next three months? i’d rather stick him in the major league pen and control the leverage of the situations where he pitches. two or three innings at a time, learning to use the fastball and slider to get guys out at the next level. if you’re sending him to the minors, you send him there to learn a new pitch. otherwise it’s a waste of time.
How about instead of learning a new pitch
He learns how to get ground ball outs with his fastball. That sounds like something he needs to learn to do, and has never been able to do at any level.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
that's a good idea in theory
but how do you make that happen exactly? you could teach him a sinker i suppose. but it seems like it’s really difficult to get a guy who has been successful enough at a certain level to get promoted to go back and work on something new that could potentially make him less successful.
put another way, why would he throw his new, experimental sinker on a 2-2 count and hope that 1) he doesn’t make a mistake with it and 2) his AAA defense catches the groundball if he executes correctly when he could just dial up a high fastball that the batter probably can’t catch anyway? because in the back of your head, you’re going to believe that you’ll be evaluated on your e.r.a., no matter what the coaches say.
i think hernandez would develop better by learning to make adjustments at the major league level. and as i mentioned in response to a different post above, i’d just rather watch him than hendrickson. selfish? sure, but it would be more entertaining for me.
matusz is obviously a much more talented pitcher, but it’s sort of the same with him. minor leaguers couldn’t touch his stuff, so he needs to learn to really pitch in the majors.
True
but I guess I don’t think that Hernandez’s stuff equates to getting major leaguers out the way Matusz’s does. I can’t say myself, but I wonder what percentage of those gaudy strikeout numbers came on the fastball rather than on offspeed stuff? Because it seems like his fastball isn’t going to be good enough to either strike enough guys out or to limit the home runs in the major leagues. And I believe that his offspeed stuff either isn’t good enough or isn’t polished enough to get the job done.
But like I said, I don’t absolutely know. That’s just what my gut thinks from what I’ve read and seen. If there were a spot for him in the bullpen I’d be all over that right now – but there isn’t, and I think that’s fine for both the Orioles and Hernandez’s development.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
Well actually
One of the articles this spring stated that Hernandez was just learning a two-seam fastball (this is the type that creates groundballs) so he may be picking able to pick up some groundballs.
Most pitchers use 2-seamers early in counts to either get strikes or a quick groundball. This should help Hernandez a lot since a major reason he was giving up so many homeruns is that he was throwing fastballs high in the zone. For many hitters that’s where they like to hit homeruns from. Since Hernandez was unable to go down low with his fastball hitters were able to sit on it.
His fastball is like Tillman’s and Arrieta’s, a fourseamer high in the zone. this means it can overpower hitters with velocity, but they’re typically pretty straight. This is why tillman is working on a cutter and Hernandez a 2-seamer
it CAN create groundballs
Doesn’t necessarily. Some pitchers get sinking action on their two-seamers and some just get lateral movement. Sinking action obviously creates groundballs, but lateral action doesn’t have nearly the same effect. It all depends on the pitchers arm action and release point.
Not sure about Hernandez
he seems to be the kind of pitcher that when he gets hit hard, people are getting free baseballs. I’d go with Ohman, Meredith and Albers, if not Berken. I want to believe in Berken, but I’d feel better if he was proving himself in AAA first.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
I don't see how Cla
gets left off. I think at this point he’s pretty much an established major league reliever. I don’t even really think he’s competing for a spot.
he isnt that good
but i agree…he has prob made the team
by twistedlogic on Mar 16, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say he was that good.
Most middle relievers aren’t or they wouldn’t be middle relievers. He’s serviceable.
It's a tough call with Hernandez...
…the thing is you want him to develop, but he’s already had success in AAA so it seems like a waste of time to send him back down. He needs to see Big League batters. So sure, we’re going to see some balls out on Eutaw while he’s learning, but that’s worth it, if he develops.
he had success in AAA but it was only 57 innings
It’s not like he put in a whole season down there.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
With a 12+ K/9 rate...
It’s a waste of time sending him down there if he’s striking out nearly half the batters he sees. He needs to learn to pitch against Big League hitters and there’s only one place to do that.
A couple things
He made 11 starts in AAA against 10 different teams. AAA batters adjust just as much as MLB hitters do so it would be interesting to see what kind of success he had if he was facing the same lineups several times per year. Hernandez has always had a high K/9 rate but it jumped from between 9 and 10 his entire minor league career to 12.40 in AAA. It’s likely it would have gone down if he was more exposed at that level.
Also, even in the minors he only managed to pitch an average of just over 5 innings/game. I don’t know where to find minor league pitch counts but if it’s like he was in the majors he probably went to way too many three ball counts and ended up gassed after 5 innings.
If you’re going to make the decision that he’s a reliever that last bit doesn’t matter as much, but I don’t think it’s time to give up on that yet. You move him to the pen and it’ll be tougher for him to start down the road. If the Orioles still see him as a starter but he can’t crack the O’s rotation then I don’t see any issue with him being sent to Norfolk’s rotation.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
Again...
…he needs to see Big League hitters. He has seen minor league hitting and dominated it. To me this guy is a good candidate for a long relief/mop up role to develop and eventually prove himself.
57 IP against different batters every time doesn't really prove that to me
That’s like watching Chris Waters dominate the Angels in his first start and declaring him better than major league hitters.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
What if Koji is out?
If his hamstring injury translates to early time on the DL, who takes Koji’s place?
Guthrie?
Kidding, people. Kidding.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
I'm pretty sure Guthrie will be gone by the end of the season
Not only is he struggling, but in a few months, and if Arrieta continues progressing, there won’t be a spot open for him. Not to mention progress from Hernandez and Britton.
I’m hoping Andy can pull off another trade in the ilk of Josh Bell.
My dad mentioned the Astros wanted Sarfate back. Has anyone else heard that?
Spring training...
doesn’t count. Give it a few months before you make any kind of judgement on Guthrie.
That being said, I wouldn’t mind flipping him at the trade deadline for the right price.
I'd love to see him traded for a shortstop, second baseman, or more pitching
Give me pitching or give me the current state of the Mets organization. (shutters)
You may not be in a month
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
still gotta have somebody replace him in the rotation
and honestly, i enjoyed watching him pitch more than berken or hernandez last year. plus guts is much older. if berken or hernandez is going to the pen, i’d like to see that happen sooner rather than later.
by twistedlogic on Mar 21, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
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