Birds Up, O's Down - Late Spring Training edition
by duck on Mar 30, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
in Birds Up, O's Down
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PrintThis is the first in what's designed to be a weekly series on the past week of each member of the O's active roster. Thanks to Japer's Rink for the inspiration. This series will run on Sunday evenings in the future, but consider this a test run. Use the comments to offer tweaks, constructive criticism or incoherent ranting.
Here's the late Spring Training 2010 edition of Birds Up, O's Down. All stats were before Monday night's game.
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Catchers |
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Sporting an OPS over 1.000 and 2 HRs in 20 AB, Chad Moeller should have a lock on the backup catcher position. Apparently he doesn't, but he should. |
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Craig has had almost as many AB as Moeller in ST, but hasn't grabbed the backup role with an average of .211. His superior arm is his only hope. He may be destined for a bus ticket to Norfolk. |
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Switch-Hittin' Jesus hasn't done much hitting this spring, but it's spring. If his OBP is still .318 in June, then I'll worry. |
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Infielders |
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Andino can't hit a lick, but he can back up at SS, which
is more than Justin Turner can do, apparently. |
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I don't immediately know how your OBP can be lower than your AVG, but Garrett's done it this spring. C'mon, Brandon Snyder… |
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Izzy can't hit a lick, in Spring Training or regular season. But he's not Brandon Fahey, so we got that going for us. |
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He's hurt. We have no idea how bad, or if it will recur. As of Monday, he was batting. Go O's! |
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Miggi isn't hitting well in ST, but it's ST. And it's like his 23rd MLB Spring Training, so I'll give him a mild "down" and move along. |
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Justin Turner |
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Ironically, the infielder with the best spring at the plate has the least chance to make the club. If he could play SS, Justin Turner and his .866 OPS in 31 Abs might be going north, not Andino. |
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Yes, he can turn a sweet play at 2B in a pinch. But his hitting's been awful this spring. Here's hoping he's a wily vet that turns it on once OD hits. |
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Outfielders |
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The OPS of almost .900 is nice, but the OBP is a little low. Adam's got to stop swinging at bad pitches. The four walks in 43 AB is a good sign. |
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ZERO walks? Really Nick? I know it's spring, but ZERO? |
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Lou can hit, but he's not going north, with the other four fighting for three spots and Luke still wanting some sweet LF action. Sorry, Lou. |
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Felix is sporting the best spring OPS of any starter, but what about that shoulder? |
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Let's not kid ourselves - Nolan's not ready to play LF every day. But Pie's shoulder is now an issue, and Luke's balking at 1B. So who is our Opening Day starter in left field? |
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Designated Hitters |
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He's the only healthy LF we have, his OBP is a robust (for Luke) .356, yet he's struck out 11 times in less than 40 AB. Ladies and gentlemen, Luke Scott! |
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Starters |
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Matusz had the spring we all hoped he would - dominant. His WHIP was under 1.00 his BB/K split was 3/19. And even his one bad start wasn't really that bad. Only question is by how much does he win AL RoY if he stays healthy. |
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If you're wondering why Hernandez may be the 5th starter, look no further than his BB/K split of 3/20. Throw in a respectable WHIP of 1.33, and Hernandez may have earned his way into the rotation. |
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No problems with the shin. No problems with the shoulder. And no problems looking like a nice 1-2 punch with Matusz for years to come. |
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Chris had a respectable spring with a 1.41 WHIP and a sub-4.00 ERA. But look at Hernandez's numbers again, and you'll see why Chris is checking bus schedules to Norfolk to start the year. |
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Yes, it's spring. But Jeremy Guthrie is not starting with a lot of spare rope if Tillman goes to AAA and forces his way back north. It just may be Guts' spot, not Hernandez's, that Tillman claims. |
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It's spring, and Millwood says he always sucks in the spring. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Show 'em what you got, old man. |
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Bullpen |
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| Jason Berken |
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The ERA is below 3.00, the WHIP is around 1.10, and the BB/K split is 3/7. Long relief just might be Berken's destiny. There's worse ways to make a living. |
| Matt Albers |
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Matt came into camp in seemingly worse shape than we saw him last. But aside from one disastrous outing, Matt's done well in ST. His ERA is around 2.50, his WHIP is in good shape, and he's got just 1 walk against 6 K's. |
| Kam Mickolio |
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Classic case of why ERA doesn't tell the story. Sure, that 1.93 looks good, but a 1.50 WHIP and 7 walks against 10 K's? |
| Cla Meredith |
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The Claw found success this spring, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and no walks against 5 K's. |
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Maybe we shouldn't be so certain Jim Johnson goes north as the 8th inning guy. There's an argument to be made to keep Mickolio over JJ. The WHIP is north of 1.60 and the ERA is over 3.50. Not good for a set-up man to be counted on 3-4 times a week. |
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Will Ohman couldn't have had a better spring if he tried. He's a lefty, he's sportin' a fancy 0.00 ERA to go with a 0.41 WHIP, and he's got 10 Ks against 2 walks. |
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Mark's a lefty. That may be the only reason he has some semblance of job security at this point. With a rough April, he may find himself look at Norfolk and Bowie to see his replacement gaining fast. |
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Oh, our delicate flower. When healthy? He's good. But can he stay healthy for longer than a lunar cycle? |
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So our presumed closer has the highest WHIP and ERA of anyone in the bullpen. Awesome. Yes, I know, limited sample size, but not what I'd want if I had my druthers. |
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Comments
Apparently Moeller's lock on the backup spot isnt nearly so strong
Whispers around camp are the Os are high on Tatums throwing arm and he works well w. pitchers. He’s gonna be the backup.
-Britt_Ghiroli
Orioles Blog is reporting Tatum's the man
Well, according to a tweet by Os beat writer Brittany Ghiroli.
Apparently, Moeller was told yesterday.
If you're Moeller...
You’re probably wondering what else you could have done this spring. Dude raked compared to Tatum. I want a back-up catcher who can hit.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Why...what?
Chad Moeller has a career OBP of .288. Last year it was .313. And he’s 35 years old. Given that a backup to Wieters is probably getting like 100 PA or so total, we’re talking a total offensive contribution of around 10-13 runs from Chad Moeller.
If we use an combination of the projection systems for Tatum, we’re probably talking about a total offensive contribution of 9-12 runs from Craig Tatum. So I’m not gonna lose sleep over not having a “back-up catcher who can hit” without Chad Moeller, especially since Tatum can make up the one run difference with his arm.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
Comparing ST numbers
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
by duck on Mar 30, 2010 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, stop comparing ST numbers
Although I’m certain that Moeller has finally discovered his sweet swing and can easily hit .364/.640 over the course of the entire season for the first time ever (which, by the way, would give him around 23 runs created, which would definitely make it tougher for Tatum to make up the difference…but still not impossible)
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
So much rambling before I go to bed
Andio’s hit for some power. It’s been little weird.
I thought Albers had lost weight before ST… Still, mediocre spring.
Tillman needs to work on keeping the ball down. This was something that Hernandez experienced in his first full season in the majors, and I’m not sure Tillman in Triple-A is going to accomplish the same results. At a certain point, pitchers have to take their lumps and pitch down in the zone. Maybe he’ll work on “holding runners”, as Trembly has said he needs to work on, but it seems like he just needs a full season where he fails a bit and it forces him to get the ball down. The talent’s there and all that business.
There are three trades I’m looking forward to seeing before the end of the season: Hendrickson (replaced by Berken), Luke Scott (committee DH of Pie, Reimold, and Lou?), and Guthrie to an NL club (Arrieta and/or Tillman come up after an injury/trade). The rebuilding is over but there are spots that are being filled by players who simply aren’t as good as the guys they’re expecting.
Reimold would be a solid DH until and if Brandon Warring steps up, is younger, and would hit about as well as Scott if not better.
I've convinced myself Guts is going to be traded to the Mets
It just makes too much sense. They need more starting pitching in the worst way, he’s been a heavy duty flyball pitcher and Citi is about as far from a homer haven as you’ll get, and they can probably get him for relatively cheap. I’d like to get Wilmer Flores from them as he’ll be blocked at the ML level by Reyes (he’s just in A ball now I believe), but that’s not very likely (though these are the Mets). Other guys we could be looking at are Ike Davis (1b) and middle infielders Reese Havens and Ruben Tejada.
These are all guys that are fairly highly ranked in the Mets organization, but if we could land one of them it’d definitely be beneficial for us and the Mets would get a pitcher that’s probably best suited for success playing with them in that huge park in the NL.
Also
I’m done with Lou. No more Lou. If we trade Luke midseason, maybe we can get a look at Bell or Snyder and move Tejada or Atkins to DH.
Actually, I think 1 BB every 10 AB is an improvement for him....
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
It still sucks...
it just sucks less.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
No, 10% walk rate is above average
I mean, AJ isn’t going to walk as much as Nick Swisher or Kevin Youkilis do, but last year a 10% walk rate would have put AJ just behind Reimold, Scott, ZAUN, and Roberts for best on team
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
Yup
The average walk rate in major league baseball is around 8.9%, 50 walks in 500 plate appearances would be 10%, which is therefore above average.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
I'm not really concerned with his walk rate as long as the overall OBP is high
hit > walk. If he’s successfully putting a lot of 3-1 balls into play, his walk rate may look low but he’s ultimately more valuable. The key is identifying which of those pitches he can really drive and which its better to take the walk.
Ehhh
I mean unless he’s going to hit .330 or something his walk rate is going to be crucial for his overall OBP.
THIS
Get on base. That’s the be-all, end-all. GET. ON. BASE.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Well, yeah.
I’m just saying I’m not really too concerned with his walk rate in a vacuum. OBP being equal, a low walk rate is actually preferable. Turning strikeouts into walks is obviously a good thing, but i dont want him getting too shy at the plate where he’s increasing his walks at the cost of hits.
Well, then, that's toally what I meant, then.
:)
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Re: Atkins' OBP vs. BA
If you have far more sac flies than walks your OBP will be lower than your avg. Thanks Wikipedia!
Game Over T-shirts: http://www.cafepress.com/beltwaysports
by CStoneNo37 on Mar 30, 2010 11:44 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I only saw one Markakis AB
But he was swinging at EVERYTHING. He looked like he would have chased a balk.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
He swung at a lot more balls out of the strike zone last year than previously, iirc
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
True
but 2008 was sort of the aberration from his career in terms of swinging at balls for Nicky. 2009 was pretty normal for him (and still above average). I wouldn’t worry about his hacktastic spring training.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
One can always stand to have a lower O-swing%
I see he’s way below average every year though. Huh.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
I like this idea for a feature
and the little bus signs are awesome. I would add orange stars and make the arrows the same color scheme.
Formatting: the right side got cut off a little on the main page on my screen.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
Thanks!
Seriously, the more specific the remarks, the better idea I have of what to tweak or change.
What would earn an orange star?
Which color scheme to use -
black arrow with orange background 
or
orange arrow with black background? 
And I’ll fix the width issue not that I know how.
Glad you like the little bus icon. :)
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
And I’ll fix the width issue NOW that I know how.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
I'd go with orange arrows up, black arrows down
without the border. I know that contradicts Coach, but just a thought.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
I like different colors for up and down
Orange UP and black DOWN would work, yes?
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
I like the black arrow on orange
I’d also h-flip the up arrow so both arrow come from the same direction.
The red dash looks to me like a minus sign, maybe make that black/orange as well?
I think a birdland vote landslide would get you a star.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
How's this for arrows?
I like different color arrows.
I’ll work on the dash – I see your point. I’ll make it gray like Japer’s Rink does.
I like the star for a Birdland game, but that’s 1/3 of the roster each week. Maybe you’re right, it has to be a truly Birdland game to earn one.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Maybe limit it to max one from pitchers and one from position players
Or we could have a weekly vote for stars, or we can tabulate ‘birdland shares’.
Re arrows, just being picky, but what I meant was have arrows so they come from the left. Other than that, I like those better.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
Try using a baseball bat and two balls instead of arrows.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Not sure how that would work
And I kind of liked the concept of up and down that JP uses.
Can you show me roughly what you mean?
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
I'm not that adept at pasting in symbols.
It would be a bat pointed either up or down. The two baseballs (optional) would always be placed at the handle end of the bat.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
aahhahahahahahahaahah
I am anti this because it makes me think that it will look totally inappropriate.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
btw - I like this feature.
Have no real opinion on what symbology you use. The above recommendation was tongue in cheek.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
What are druthers, anyway?
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
Learn something new every day!
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Mar 30, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
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