Is Xavier Avery on the Verge of a Breakout? Signs Point to Yes.

its tough for me to move them from garrett atkins, but i think i’ll eventually learn to deal with it.

…how will you ever get to be disappointed when he struggles in the big leagues?

He’s good, and he’s a Boston prospect. Not having a great year so far though.

I’m original.

Where is he playing?

…but it is Kenny Lofton or Brian Roberts in a good year type pop. I think. But he’s not a pure slap hitter like Hudson or Angle.

Right now you have to give him the edge over Givens in several ways, I think, both because Givens hasn’t played a pro game yet but also because at Givens’ current age, Avery was in a full season league.

Avery went 1-4 with a single, a walk, and two strikeouts. Stole a base too. Keys are 4-2 and have won four straight.

At the rate things are going, May. And he’ll be our best player.

…but obviously he had problems with both his approach and his pitch ID. But the big thing to remember is that the numbers only tell part of the story with prospects.

First of all, I’m not a scout, even an amateur one, and I don’t know what the team knows either. What they know about him from instruction and minor league camp simply isn’t available to us. But I can say a few things.

First of all, tools matter. A lot. Think of it like this: say your average minor league prospect has a 5% chance of making the big leagues someday (those aren’t real odds, just something I’m using for the sake of argument). But tools make a huge difference in the payoff if one of your prospects hits and makes the show. Things like bat speed make a lot of difference; some of the guys who mash in the low minors won’t be able to keep up with the better pitching in the high minors. And one of the things that Avery’s strong performance against lefties shows us is that he has good bat speed.

Second, age relative to league matters a lot for hitters. Remember, we’re talking about very young men, in their late teens or early twenties. All are still maturing physically, and this provides a multiplier to their performance. If Avery posts league average numbers in Frederick, you have to increase the value of that because he did it at such a young age. The peak age for baseball players has been established as 26-28; the more advanced in level a prospect is at 20, the more room they have to improve towards their peak.

Finally, it is important to remember that the minor leagues aren’t primarily about winning and losing, but about developing players. A minor league pitcher might need to work on repeating his delivery, or on throwing a new pitch, to the degree that they might be focusing on that above getting guys out. A hitter may spend a week working on going the other way, or on hitting breaking pitches. These are important skills that often can only really be worked on in game situations, and their success and failure at them won’t be reflected in the box score. But the Orioles do, and to an extent, who they promote and who they don’t can be seen as a commentary by the club on the subject.

In any case, that you for being a part of the debate!