Birds Up, O's Down for April 18
by duck on Apr 18, 2010 8:00 PM EDT
in Birds Up, O's Down
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PrintHere’s a weekly look at players making an impact, for good and bad, for the Orioles this week:
Birds Up
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Brian Matusz (LHP) Brian looked as good as a rookie could in the first 7.0 IP of his second start, when two bloop hits, some shaky D, and a incompetent bullpen performance did him in. Then he overwhelmed the A's lineup for most of 6.1 IP today. This kid's the real deal. |
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Ty Wigginton (2B/UT) - With Brian Roberts out and Julio Lugo batting as badly as we feared he might, Wiggy's getting ABs and doing something with them. |
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Kevin Millwood (RHP) - He's got two losses on his record, and you could argue he doesn't deserve either of them. He's given up 6 ER in 3 starts. If this team could hit its way out of a wet paper bag, he'd be 3-0 right now. |
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Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) - It's not his fault he doesn't have a win. He went 13.2 IP this week with just 4 ER, yet it may as well be 2008 all over again. This team doesn't hit when he pitches. Then again, they don't hit when ANYONE pitches this year. |
O's down
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Mike Gonzalez (LHP) - He left the team for the birth of his first child and came back to a demotion. Now he's out for at least three weeks and on a FLA rehab stint. |
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Brad Bergesen (RHP) - He showed his home opener performance wasn't a one-time fluke, as he was as bad in his second start. The sinker's not sinking, and Trembley, Kranitz and MacPhail may be considering Jake Arrieta for his spot with many more bad starts. |
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Matt Wieters (C) - Yes, the Curse of Small Sample Size has hit Wieters, as his AVG has dropped almost 150 points in a week. But Matt just plain didn't hit this week. |
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Felix Pie (LF) - He was one of the few bright spots in the O's lineup, now he's on the shelf for the remainder of April with a shoulder strain. And we have to deal with Lou Montanez. |
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David Hernandez (RHP) - He was a bit unlucky in his first start. His second? Death by a thousand paper cuts. But those 5 runs in 5.0 IP stay on his record. |
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Peter Angelos (OWN) - Reports surfaced that Andy MacPhail and Cal Ripken met about a role for Cal in the Warehouse, and Peter himself stepped in to nix the deal. Then Angelos "clarified" his position in a way that made him look even worse. Even if the reports are Cal's way of whining, why would you NOT do this, Peter? |
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Even if the reports are Cal’s way of whining, why would you NOT do this, Peter?
Just to play devil’s advocate, two reasons come immediately to mind. 1) Cal has zero front office experience. Why would you want to give a high level executive position, as it has been suggested that he wants, to someone who doesn’t possess the experience for that job. Just because he was a great player doesn’t mean he’ll be a good executive. 2) By hiring Cal, you created an unfireable employee and thus won’t be held accountable for his results.
This is the bestest picture of all the internets! http://bit.ly/aHdCBQ
#2 is a very good point
But PGA has to know how this appears to the casual fan, and it’s another reason to think this team won’t get appreciably better while he controls it.
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
The casual fan...
Is precisely the person that PGA and AM need to ignore in this whole ordeal. Casual fans think this club is a Texieira or an AGonz away from winning the WS. Casual fans are also the first fans off the train and the last ones on.
I want to see continued examples of this FO making tough, educated decisions. If that means not giving Cal the keys to the car up front, so be it. The more and more I think about why this kind of story would come out now, the only thing my feeble brain can imagine is that someone on Team Cal sees the Orioles and current ownership as being in a weak position and this is the first salvo in an attempt to eventually wrest the team away from PGA.
by TerroristFistJab on Apr 19, 2010 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
The casual fan…
Is precisely the person that PGA and AM need to ignore in this whole ordeal.
Well said.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
apparently, tillman is struggling badly
"nicely done."
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
we're back in business
by danielreese05 on Apr 18, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at Tillman's 2010 numbers...
and look at Arrieta’s.
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
Arrieta's not on the 40-man though
We’d have to DFA someone to bring him up.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
That's true
And I think Julio Lugo is a great candidate.
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
by duck on Apr 18, 2010 11:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Keep Turner up long term?
It’s an idea.
I’d be inclined to let either Castillo or Ohlman go. I can’t figure out why a team in our position has four lefty specialist bullpen arms on the 40 man in the first place.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
At the time...
Someone here mentioned the fact that Lugo would probably not react well to limited playing time, and could pull a Freel and whine his way out of town. Here’s to hoping they cut their losses with him sooner rather than later.
With Roberts, Pie, and Marlboro Man on the DL, and Tejada at D2D, they’re going to need bodies up here, and soon.
by TerroristFistJab on Apr 19, 2010 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions
geez, where is everybody?
shouldn’t we be celebrating or something? we just scored 8 runs and won a game for god’s sake!
more relevant to the post i hope i’m not the only one who is realllllly wishing for gonzalez to come back and be super effective. i don’t want that 12 million to go down the drain and we need a closer big time
"nicely done."
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
we're back in business
I'm hoping we have more games to close
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
"This, is Stefan, his name is Stefan. Harden the fuck up Stefan."
"nicely done."
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
we're back in business
by danielreese05 on Apr 18, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is this guy?
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
http://www.ronniejohns.com/htfu.html
looks alike a comedy group from australia
"nicely done."
"this is mike gonzalez. his name is mike gonzalez. harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
we're back in business
by danielreese05 on Apr 18, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
matusz is bridland ALWAYS
"nicely done."
"this is mike gonzalez. harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
we're back in business
by danielreese05 on Apr 18, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
true
My comments aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me....
by Zachary Beard on Apr 18, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
rules about Birdland...
I see that your Shift Key and/or your CAPS LOCK key works therefore, when referring to Birdland in a positive light about an Orioles player Birdland is to capitalized. Only when referring to the opposition when they perform horrendously may birdland (not capitalized) be used. Examples: Brian Matusz was Birdland today, or Rajai Davis’s baserunning blunder (and therefore possibly Rajai Davis) was birdland today.
Also… UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE is Birdland, or birdland, to be misspelled.
That is all.
"I do think the O’s have sucked balls this season. If that displeases you Luke, then oh well."-birdman
Another rule of Birdland:
You do not talk about Birdland.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
How dare you disgrace Wieters witha a down arrow?!
My comments aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me....
Even Jesus had a bad weekend...
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
when?
My comments aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me....
by Zachary Beard on Apr 18, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Sometime around EASTER, I'd guess....
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
besides that one....
My comments aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me....
by Zachary Beard on Apr 18, 2010 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I said A bad weekend...
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
So in other words
Wieters will burn it up the rest of the season?
My comments aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me....
by Zachary Beard on Apr 18, 2010 10:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hahahahaha
that actually made me laugh out loud. you really walked right into that one…
"nicely done."
"this is mike gonzalez. harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
we're back in business
by danielreese05 on Apr 18, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't put DH on the "down" list
His last start was fine – he was plagued by bad luck and worse defense.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Kind of like the lionsfor the last10 years?
My comments aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me....
by Zachary Beard on Apr 18, 2010 10:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not all of those 5 runs were bad luck or bad defense.
You’ve got to get into the 6th and get at least 1 out as a starter….
"I strongly suggest watching the O’s play while on a powerful, legal, prescribed narcotic. All the COLORS!!!!! and that Dempsey really makes sense. " - Adam double bubble
No of course all 5 of them weren't bad luck or bad defense
but at least 2 of them were, and who knows how deep he would have gone if it wasn’t for the bad defense and bad luck, but he sure would have gone deeper than 5. He’s our number 5 starter is he not? I’ll take 6 innings and 3 ERs pretty much every time out from a number 5.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
I'll be honest
I’m so ready to deal with sweet swinging Lou. I might even have to pick him back up on the fantasy team after my drubbing this week!
Wigginton
I’ve been very impressed with Ty Wigginton’s start. His SLG percentage so far is 710…crazy! Obviously sample sizes, but it was 400 in ’09.
Given the age, injured, and craptastic infielders on this team, Wigginton has to see a possibility of him essentially being a full time player. If he could be dependable, he definitely could fetch a prospect in July. (Ah yes, thinking about the 7/31 deadline in mid-April, the joys of being an Oriole fan.)
Librarians are hiding something
I’m hoping a bunch of the guys who aren’t part of the long term plan can manage to put seasons together before the deadline and fetch us some prospects; Wiggy, Atkins, Tejada, Millwood, etc.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
If Millwood continues to pitch the way he has
He’s not going anywhere in July. Especially with the other holes we suddenly have in 3E1N/Tillman.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Even if Tillman/Arrietta get it together at AAA?
doesn’t seem impossible at all. What’s the point of keeping a guy on a one-year deal to win an extra 3-4 games?
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
re-read
I started that with
If Millwood continues to pitch the way he has
In case you hadn’t noticed, Millwood has a 2.89 ERA and 1.286 WHIP, far exceeding what I think any of us expected. He has walked one batter and K’d 20.
Despite our doubts, he is actually the ace on the team right now. No matter how much someone’s tearing it up at AAA, when you have a bona fide #1 or #2 starter in baseball, you don’t trade him at the deadline for prospects. You try to re-sign him for the following year while you have exclusive negotiating rights.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Right - I read that correctly the first time.
The better he pitches for us the more value he has in a trade. Why would we keep him because he’s doing well? We want him to do well specifically to trade him, no? He’s on a one year contract and has less than zero value for us after this year. You really think we would try to resign him??
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
I mean I think the only reason to not trade him
is if you think he’s going to be an A free agent and you think the sandwich round pick will give us more value than anything you could get in trades. That’s an argument I could get on board with, but to keep him just because he’s doing well seems really shortsighted.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
but to keep him just because he’s doing well seems really shortsighted.
Why? Why wouldn’t you want to keep a staff ace? There are not many of them in baseball.
Look the whole conversation is moot, because Millwood is not going to keep those numbers up all year.
But let’s say he does. 2011 is the year we’re trying to get to the playoffs. We’re not rebuilding anymore. If Millwood keeps up these numbers, why on earth would you try to get more prospects for him instead of trying to keep him in the rotation?
At some point, and that point is when you’re trying to make a run, you have to actually keep some of your best players.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
and P.S.
Millwood with those numbers at the break trumps anything Arrietta and Tillman do at AAA.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
do you really think if Millwood is putting up “ace” numbers at the trading deadline that it’s evidence of anything other than a fluke half season? I thought we’re trying to build for the long-term here. Even if he has an incredible full 2010 is there any reason to think he wouldn’t revert back to his usual mediocrity for 2011 It seems like him doing awesome up to the trading deadline is a classic opportunity to sell high.
My point about bringing up Arrietta or Tillman had NOTHING to do with replicating the numbers that Millwood would put up if we kept him. Not sure what that has to do with anything.
I know this whole discussion is moot and hypothetical, but I don’t even understand your hypothetical argument unless it’s that because he’s doing well at the trading deadline Millwood, at age 37, is somehow going to become a bona fide ace and so we should keep him so he’ll lead us to the playoffs in 2011…
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
A strong half-season this year on top of a strong season last year
suggests that it may be more than a fluke and may actually be a late-career upswing. I think you trade him for the right offer, but he could actually be a useful piece next year if he shows an interest in resigning. At some point you do have to start holding on to pieces, and an argument can be made that he could be a solid mid-rotation guy for us next season. Theres a broad spectrum between untouchable and must trade, and i think Millwood falls on somewhere on that spectrum depending just how good his first half is.
I'll concede that
although I thought that right after we traded for him somebody posted some pretty convincing analysis that last year seemed to be mostly a result of luck.
Let me clarify – I’m not suggesting we dump him for just anything, but we certainly shouldn’t keep him just because he’s doing well. If he’s doing well that seems like all the more reason to look for an attractive trade option.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
This was definitely my position going into the season as well
But if he puts together a solid season and a half of starts, at some point that starts to look a little less like luck.
This is all conjecture since we’re still working off a tiny sample size for this season, but if he comes close to keeping this up, there’s an argument to be made that Millwood is more than a 1-year filler. Especially once Matusz takes his rightful place at the top of the rotation, I could definitely live with Millwood rounding out one of the next 4 slots
True
I also think a lot of this discussion will be shaped by what Tillman/Arrietta/Erbe/Britton do this year in the minors. If they continue (or start again for some of them) to develop it makes Millwood much more expendable and attractive to trade for prospects.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Even then i think Millwood could have a role on this team
We joke a lot about our Mentor, but there is some value to having a veteran presence in the rotation and in the dugout (just not as much as every lazy sportswriter thinks).
Eh
well if that’s the case the rotation is going to be pretty damn crowded at some point in the near future…
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
see, this i where you and I are disagreeing
If Millwood is lights-out at the major league level, it doesn’t really much matter what those guys are doing in the minors. The #3/#4 spot in the rotation would be his to lose.
And additional prospects do nothing for us in 2011, probably not 2012 either.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Right - that's the difference
You think that if a 36 year old career mediocre pitcher puts up a good half season that means he’ll put up a good full season as a 37 year old the next year. I’m less convinced.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Not that it makes a huge difference
but you’re off by a year. he’s 35 now, and will be 36 next season.
True – at the trading deadline he’ll be 35 and 8 months…
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
And by your previous statement
He could just as easily be 36 and 8 months. When you discuss the beginning or end of someone’s career, that year can make a big difference when evaluating their performance. Might as well be accurate.
thanks for trying to state my arguments for me, but
…. I think you and I have different definitions for “mediocre pitcher”.
Kevin Millwood has a career WHIP of 1.31, and an ERA just over 4. These numbers are probably a little worse because of his four years in Arlington. He also averages over 200 IP per year.
That not only makes him the best pitcher on the O’s since Erik Bedard, it also makes him a well-above-average pitcher in either league, and a #1 or #2 starter on most teams.
Note that most people would consider “average” to be a synonym for “mediocre”, so by saying that someone so obviously above average is a “mediocre” pitcher, you’re betraying that you don’t understand what the word means.
I don’t really care about his age. And I don’t know how he’ll do next year.
What I’m saying is that if he’s pitching like this at the deadline, it’s a far better bet that he can help us next year than any prospect we’ll get for him. And I actually care more about next year than I do about 2014. It’s also an even bet that he can contribute more than any pitcher we have in AAA right now.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Additionally
If Millwood is pitching really well in the second half, that combined with his good year last year would probably make him a Type A Free Agent, which would probably give the Orioles even more pause in trading him.
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
right - I said that already
I mean I think the only reason to not trade him
is if you think he’s going to be an A free agent and you think the sandwich round pick will give us more value than anything you could get in trades. T
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
I should probably actually read all the comments, huh?
This just in: adorableness on the rise, family copes with child getting schooled. Film at 11. -daveh873
if you want to talk about this:
These numbers are probably a little worse because of his four years in Arlington
Then you should probably also consider that he pitched 8 years in the NL with 6 of them in ATL.
And I"m just saying – of the last 7 years he had as many years with an ERA+ below 90 as above 100 (tossing out the 99 and 102 as precisely mediocre). That seems pretty mediocre to me. 100 is the definition of mediocre correct?
Seems weird not to care about his age since it’s such a good predictor for performance.
Saying you care more about next year than 2014 is fine if you think we’re actually going to compete next year. I’ve yet to see any evidence of that though and if we’re 20 games under 500 at the trading deadline it’ll seem an even more ridiculous idea.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
The issue with trading him though is that other teams will realize this as well
Do we really want a Chris Ray back for Millwood, or hold on to him as a solid middle of rotation starter? If someone blows us away with an offer, sure trade him. But if he’s pitching well, I’d set that bar pretty high.
even if we got the return we got for Bedard,
which was a fleecing, by any measure, I wouldn’t trade him away if he’s pitching the way he is now.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
i'll help the opposing GM check into a psych ward
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 19, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
AFTER we make the deal, yes?
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
oh of course
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 19, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
wow!
That’s just crazy talk to me. Are we just betting the farm on 2011 or something?? I thought we were trying to build an actual franchise again. I would take half the return we got for Bedard even if Millwood was going to win 20 games this year.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
well, let's revisit at the deadline then
But I will add this:
And I"m just saying – of the last 7 years he had as many years with an ERA+ below 90 as above 100 (tossing out the 99 and 102 as precisely mediocre). That seems pretty mediocre to me. 100 is the definition of mediocre correct?
Why are you cherrypicking his stats? hey, instead of his last 7 years, let’s go with his AL years only, 2005-2009. Because that’s the league we play in, and also, he’d already turned 30. So they should be more accurate, right? Throw out the low (88) and high (147), and you get an ERA+ numbers of 89, 102, and 127. That averages out to 106, which is obvi better than mediocre.
Seems weird not to care about his age since it’s such a good predictor for performance.
I don’t read too much into overall statistics. I didn’t even like arguing the ones above. Too much emphasis is placed on stats for my taste becasue you can always look to find what you want in them.
With regards to effectiveness at a certain age, it’s like pitch counts. There are always notable exceptions, and a lot depends on how the player conditions himself, etc. And any “predictions for performance” based on age are including all the guys like Sidney Ponson, who were never in shape, and who were able to get past that when they were younger based on talent.
200IP guys are not a dime a dozen. That says something to me about Millwood’s conditioning and longevity. By your reasoning we’re trading away Roger Clemens in 1998 when he’s got 9 years in front of him (albeit 9 juiced eyars, and yes I know that makes a difference).
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
I actually
included the 7 years specifically to include that one random 147 number since if I used the last 3 years (which seem more appropriate to me) I figured you’d complain about me excluding the 147.
I never said that 200 IP guys are a dime a dozen, but I think once you get over age 35 they are even more rare.
Millwood is very much not Roger Clemens – steroids or no.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
nor is he sidney ponson.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
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