DDDWTF for 5/18: Pinch running for Wiggy in a tie game
by Stacey on May 19, 2010 10:01 AM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
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In every Orioles game, there's at least one managerial move made by Dave Trembley that confounds intelligent baseball fans, a move that causes observers everywhere to smack their palms into their foreheads and unleash a string of curses.
Sometimes the move is based on some ridiculous notion of "old school" baseball which ignores how the game has changed over the years. Other times, it's based on an obsession with "small ball" or late inning matchups. But most often, it's simply a move that leaves O's fans confused and speechless, unable to do anything except turn to each other and say: WTF!?!
These are some of those moves.
Before I get into yesterday's DDDWTF, I want to address something. We are not writing these daily to attack Dave Trembley and we don't do it because we hate him. Dave Trembley seems to be a fine human being and he certainly hasn't been given the most talented team to work with. I don't believe that any manager could make this team a contender; that isn't what this is about. This is about the fact that on nearly a daily basis, Trembley does things that hurt the team. Rarely does the local press ask Trembley about these moves; I don't know why. What I do know is that in post game press conferences we consistently hear reporters ask questions like, "How big was that win tonight?" and "How much of a boost do you get from Kevin Millwood?" I'm not necessarily saying that in a win like last night's the first thing Trembley should hear is about a move he made that could have lost the game. But what about in the losses? Where are the questions then? Nobody is asking them and we don't have access to do so. So instead we're posting here that we do see what is going on. Maybe someone will notice, maybe not. But it's not just because we're haters.
Now, onto Diamond Dave's Daily WTF? The Orioles went into the 8th inning down by one run, having been stymied by Zack Greinke. With Greinke out of the game and one down, Corey Patterson homered to tie the game and Ty Wigginton singled into left field. Yes, Wiggy represented the go ahead run. But there was already one out and Ty is, again I say, arguably the best hitter on the team at this moment. Instead of leaving the best hitter in a tie game, Trembley opted to pinch run with Cesar Izturis. MAYBE if there was a guy on the bench who could hit, I wouldn't have immediately thrown my hands in the air at such a move. But the Orioles are playing with a three man bench that last night consisted of Izturis, Lou Montanez, and Craig Tatum. There are players in the lineup that are either slumping or just plain bad at baseball. You cannot take Ty Wigginton out of a tie game and replace him with hitter whose OPS is .487. Oh, and to add insult to injury, Izturis tried to steal and was thrown out to end the inning.
Luckily for the Orioles and the fans who were watching, it ended well. With the game tied in the bottom of the 10th inning, the O's got the first two men on base. Then, instead of Ty Wigginton coming to the plate, it was Cesar Izturis. Izzy grounded to to the right side and Billy Butler booted the ball, but still threw to the pitcher, Bryan Bullington, in what appeared to be plenty of time. The umpire ruled that Bullington's foot wasn't on the bag although it didn't look that way in a replay. That loaded the bases for Nick Markakis to hit a single to win the game. All's well that ends well? I don't know about that.
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Even a blind duck finds a 10th inning victory sometimes...
…wait, that doesn’t work, does it. :/
i dont really think this qualifies as a WTF moment
i know he took out the hottest hitter on the team right now, but sometimes you have to make sacrifices. i probably would have put some speed out there too, not to mention the improved defense (yea, even B2B is a defensive upgrade over wiggles). Plus, izzy was totatlly safe on that steal attempt.
It does for me
The Orioles lineup is dismal. Currently you have Wigs and Nicky hitting the ball well along with Luke, who could snap out of it at any time and Corey, who has been great fun so far but who we all know isn’t going to keep this up. If you want to improve the defense, slide Wiggy over to 1B and make Izzy/B2B the middle infield.
i agree on the defense shift
but that wouldnt have worked out in that situation. for that situation, it was a good move. i cant argue with trying to win the game without extra innings. sometimes you have to go balls to the wall.
by twistedlogic on May 19, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
If balls to the wall is replacing
the guy who is second in the majors in home runs and whose SLG% is 162 points higher than his replacement’s OPS, then count me out.
Agree
DD was making his best play to win the game in that inning and sacrificing the best overall chance to win the game overall to do so. If this tie was in the 9th on the road, no WTF moment. Last night, it was one. (And Izzy didn’t look safe to me, either)
Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
There are two angles to this that I think are important
First of all, and no offense to the individuals who cover the team, who I suspect are all very nice people – the press coverage for the Orioles is pretty lousy. Let’s take a look at Roch this morning:
I’ll say one thing for this team: It hasn’t quit on manager Dave Trembley.
You can rip the guy for the lineup shuffling, handling of the bullpen, constant breakdown in fundamentals, lack of outward emotion in the dugout, rain delays, whatever gets under your skin. But 25 guys aren’t rooting for him to get bounced.
It’s no fun living this way, but it’s nothing compared to what Trembley’s dealing with. Not even close.
Perhaps the difference between us and Roch and the rest are that he knows Dave Trembley and we don’t. Perhaps the constant defense of insiders that they “know” things we do not because of their access to the clubhouse is even true. Or perhaps working for a corporation that is co-owned by the team and has a financial interest in their success leads to bias.
But boo fucking hoo. Last I checked, Trembley has one of the 30 best jobs in the world for someone in his line of work. His salary information isn’t public, but considering that Mazzilli (the last O’s manager whose salary was public) earned a cool $500K a season, he’s making a truckload too. And last I checked, not only are we 13-27, but every single young player we have, the development of whom is supposed to be Dave’s specialty, has taken a step backward or worse this season.
Pie looked great but is hurt, so we can perhaps put him in the win column for development. But Reimold is struggling even in Norfolk. Wieters is struggling and hardly looks like one of the most heralded prospects in baseball history. Jones we all know about. Tillman hasn’t gotten back to the majors. Even Matusz has been worse this season – his xFIP is nearly half a run worse, his WHIP is worse, his K% is worse, his BB% is worse, his GB% is worse, and the only thing keeping him from getting lit up is a probably unsustainable 2.8% HR/FB rate.
But the press wants to talk about how tough it is to be Dave Trembley. Well, I don’t give a shit.
Second, a large part of what I think we do here and the value of the baseball blogs, is that we ask the questions that other outlets don’t. We’re interested not merely in what happens, but what it means, and what we can learn about how best to run a baseball team. And just like how people like Bill James helped baseball understand that stuff like bunting was usually stupid, I think that there is a good argument to be made that pinch running for key hitters, hit and run plays, and much of the rest of active in-game managing is counterproductive.
Yes, we didn’t lose last night. But inserting Izturis into the game as a pinch runner didn’t help us score and was probably unlikely to do so even if he hadn’t immediately been caught stealing. Replacing Wiggy’s defense with Izturis’ might have marginally improved our defense, but with so few outs remaining, that didn’t add a ton of value. But taking out one of our most effective bats, who was hitting at a key spot in the order – that did subtract a lot of value.
On a lot of levels, I blame MacPhail for all this, and for his foolish public proclamation that Dave was going to be evaluated on wins and losses, rather than on process, this season. But a lot of this seems to me like bullshit Dave is doing to try to signal to everyone how hard he is trying to win every game. And I want to know if that’s true, because if the Orioles are ever going to win, they will need to cut that shit out.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
by James F on May 19, 2010 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Agree on all counts
But the thing about Roch is that he works for MASN. He isn’t a reporter, his paycheck is signed by the same guys that sign Trembley’s. He is a good source of information. Same goes for Brittany Ghiroli, who works for MLB, and who said in her interview with duck before the season started that MLB frowns on them printing negative things. That pretty much only leaves the Baltimore Sun.
And really
for the most part Roch’s opinions are generic and/or nonexistant. He’s a vehicle to communicate pre and post game comments to the masses and little else. Which isn’t meant to be insulting, but he just doesn’t write opinion (or at least thoughtful opinion) pieces for MASN.
In the end though, he isn’t asking the question of “why did you do this” and I suspect that even if he did Trembley would give some vague answer like “I did it because I thought it gave us the best chance to win the game”. So it’s sort of a communication breakdown in multiple places, isn’t it?
Outs in baseball are like lives in Mario.
WORD.
Especially this part:
And last I checked, not only are we 13-27, but every single young player we have, the development of whom is supposed to be Dave’s specialty, has taken a step backward or worse this season.
and this part:
But a lot of this seems to me like bullshit Dave is doing to try to signal to everyone how hard he is trying to win every game. And I want to know if that’s true, because if the Orioles are ever going to win, they will need to cut that shit out.
I came into this season as a Trembley apologist. I’ve moved 180°. The number of ridiculous moves this year has been staggering. And “the guys sure do like him” is not even in the first three things I want in a manager. I want him gone, gone, gone, because as bad as this team is, his insane tinkering at the worst moments is only magnifying the flaws. IN particular, I’ve never seen worse bullpen management. Maaaaaybe Perlozzo and his knack for leaving guys in one three batters too long. But DDT’s nightly revolving-door-of-relievers has gone on all season and he does not seem to hae learned a thing from its ineffectiveness.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
If you...
asked questions like this on a consistent basis you would see your access diminished. Sports reporters and reporters in general have to worry about the blow back. They have to pick their spots. Is asking Dave a question that could piss him off worth the ME getting an angry call by someone from the O’s?
I understand the frustration- I covered boxing all over the country for 5 years and once was denied press passes for a fight a day before the fight in LA. Luckily, our editor threatened to run an expose on the diminished access and my pass was restored- though when I got there I found myself in the nosebleeds instead of ringside.
by Delmarvalous Tom on May 19, 2010 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
I understand that's a risk
However the teams need the press. They’re not going to deny every reporter for the Sun access.
No, they aren't going to do that...
Nor would they deny any Sun reporter because it could potentially get picked up by the 4 letters and other outlets and make them look like crap. But what the O’s could do is severely limit any reporters access- especially one with those pesky questions. This would in turn lead the media outlet to pull said reporter and send in one that asked the right questions. The O’s have the ability to make a reporters life much more difficult than it has to be without doing anything overt.
by Delmarvalous Tom on May 19, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
This would in turn lead the media outlet to pull said reporter and send in one that asked the right questions.
COUGH! KEVIN COWHERD! COUGH!
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
You need to understand...
that I totally agree with you. I’m just giving some perspective on the pressure felt by both the reporters and the media outlets.
by Delmarvalous Tom on May 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
asking Trembley what his thought process was for making a particular move is hardly insulting or deserving of blowback, especially if you don’t word it as an attack (which it doesn’t have to be).
Outs in baseball are like lives in Mario.
Disagree
Wiggy ain’t fast, no matter what Palmer says.
How many defensive plays does he NOT make that B2B does? He botched 2 plays in one inning last night.
Yes, Cizzy’s OPS is like 1/3 of Wiggy’s right now, but he’s not going to be up to bat for another 8 spots, so you figure that probably won’t be an issue. You don’t play for the 12th inning in the 9th, especially when you’re facing KC’s bullpen.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
Lugo is no great shakes defensively
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=565&position=SS#fielding
Better than Wiggy? Sure. But I think people tend to think he’s better than he is.
The odds of scoring with a runner on first and one out just aren’t great enough to trade in your bat, IMO. Then in the 9th inning you’ll be down to the bottom of the order and just like that, back to Wiggy’s spot.
The odds of scoring with a runner on first and one out just aren’t great enough to trade in your bat, IMO.
They are especially low if you then attempt a steal with that same player, who has been thrown out 2/3 of the time this year and has only 2 SB in 34 games.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Oh, like Dave
really has any idea about the 80% steal rule. Speed makes things happen on the basepaths!
Outs in baseball are like lives in Mario.
What's up with that anyway?
This entire team is unable to run the basepaths. They don’t get jumps, attempt steals on strong catchers and don’t attempt on weak catchers. 11 for 22 in SB, 50% = last in AL by a large margin. 23% of baserunners score, also last in AL. 32% of the time runners take an extra base on the basepaths, yep, last in the AL. You’d think Samuel and Shelby are actually running the bases themselves with numbers like these.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
by CoachOfEarl on May 19, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
in izzy's defense
he stole that base. foot was in before the tag
by twistedlogic on May 19, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
doesnt make it the wrong decision
we won the game. plus if wiggy had hit that grounder to first and butler botched it, no way he even makes that a close play.
by twistedlogic on May 19, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
wiggy has a much better chance of getting a hit
than izzy does. also, you cant say, “well wiggy wouldnt have made that play at first close.” unless you know that he’s gonna do the same thing as izzy
and you cant say izzy wouldnt have gotten a hit
since he, you know, got a hit.
by twistedlogic on May 20, 2010 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions
okay
he got on base. then we won the game. seems like it worked out to me.
by twistedlogic on May 20, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
but that doesn’t alter the fact that we have a team-wide problem with baserunning fundamentals.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
This is the key consideration in my opinion...
If Wiggy had hit a double and was already on 2nd, then you pinch run no questions asked. But he was at 1st. Let Miggi hit there. If he hits a single and Wiggs is on 2nd, then pinch run. But replacing Wiggs w/ Izzy in that situation didn’t make a whole lotta sense to me.
Make the world a better place; punch a Yankee fan in the face!
by PBR me ASAP! on May 19, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You have a point about B2B
But Wiggy was batting 2nd, so you had Markakis Tejada Wieters and Scott were due to hit after Wiggy.
I think Nick should have worked the count some instead of flying out on the first pitch, but he made up for it later.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
by CoachOfEarl on May 19, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't know if this has been posted
It also applies in many ways to Trembley
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_posnanski/05/18/royals.diary/index.html
…the biggest reason that Trey Hillman was unsuccessful as manager (three or four times bigger than any other reason) is because he had a lousy team
But more than that, it seems to me that when you give a manager [playerss x,y,z who really aren’t that good]… what you are really saying is, “We will be firing you at an undisclosed future date.”
This is what is has come to for Trembley.
Posnanski wrote a blog right after Hillman was fired
A lot of it, not all of it, but a lot of it reminded me so much of Trembley. Here it is if you want to read: http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/05/13/the-firing-of-trey-hillman/
Yep. Seems you can just replace names in the article.
We’ll never know what goes on in the clubhouse, but I would not be surprised to hear a lot of that article is mirrored in Baltimore.
great article
which only underscores this point:
If/when Trembley is let go, they need to look outside the organization. Because there is nobody in the organization right now that knows what it’s like to run a winning major league team. It’s nearly impossible to change institutions from within. After 11 years of futility it makes sense to challenge the status quo at every turn.
The last two managers were both internal promotions. The one before that (Mazilli) had plenty of big league experience (a +), but not enough experience to command respect, and no idea of finesse. It probably didn’t help that he had played against many of the players, and was seen as more of a peer than a superior. Grover was a good hire who had several horrible teams to work with. I hope that the next manager is someone like him: a guy who has been in a few different organizations, has had some success, can change the culture without losing the team.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
John Farrell!
Okay, that probably will never, ever happen…but if the O’s dropped a huge dumptruck (relatively speaking), he seems basically like the perfect candidate.
Outs in baseball are like lives in Mario.
Well, one main point is to get good players
Stating the obvious… but I hope the O’s plan do more of that in the future. If not, I don’t care who manages.
True, good players are a good thing
But you do not remove the few good players you have from a game before the final out in the 9th inning is recorded.
by Fred Sanford on May 19, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
My favorite Trembley move
Was pulling Aubrey Huff from a game for a pinch runner after he hit for the cycle. The O’s were ahead at the time (8th inning?) but ended up losing the game in extra innings, badly in need of Huff’s hot bat. (OK, I know there’s no such thing as a “hot” bat, but…). Trembley, as you suggest, is probably a great guy. But he’s an idiot as a manager.
while I think this was the wrong move,
I have a much bigger problem with the bullpen useage. Last night he warmed up Berken and Castillo in the top of the 7th, then sat them down and warmed up Koji in the bottom of the 7th, then sat him down and warmed up Castillo, again, and Albers in the top of the 8th, and sat them both down again. Then he brought in Ohman for one batter in the top of the 9th, who Ohman struck out, and replaced him with Simon even though 2 of the next 3 hitters were lefties. I wish he would just make a decision and stick with it.
I disagree with the premise of this exercise.
I don’t believe that Dave Trembley makes a move that is foreseeably bad on “nearly a daily basis.” This one is certainly defensible—you balance the consideration that Izturis is much more likely to score from first on a double and his superior defense versus the concern that the game will go on a few more innings and Wiggy’s spot will come up again. I’m also not sure of the utility of deciding that we’re going to find something to criticize every single day, regardless of what the team does. (Or maybe the “daily” isn’t meant to be taken literally.)
Here’s a challenge. Name one team in MLB whose fan base does not include a large contingent that thinks their manager consistently makes poor decisions. Pick any team, and I’ll bet I can find plenty of comments from fans who think so-and-so’s boneheaded decision hurt the team’s chances of winning on a regular basis.
Part of this exercise
is also aimed at the Orioles mainstream media – why aren’t THEY asking these questions? It seems to me and others that DD gets a pass on strategy. Reporters don’t even bring it up.
So we will, each and every time he makes a move that makes you say “WTF?”
"Oh, and Joe? If Brian hits any of your delicate millionaires, know that he meant it." - Stacey
Here’s a challenge. Name one team in MLB whose fan base does not include a large contingent that thinks their manager consistently makes poor decisions. Pick any team, and I’ll bet I can find plenty of comments from fans who think so-and-so’s boneheaded decision hurt the team’s chances of winning on a regular basis.
Angels, The Braves, and Dodgers off the top of head.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
Okay, let's take the Braves.
Revered manager in his last year. Five thousand consecutive division championships. These comments are all from one post-game thread at the Braves SBN blog after a 3-2 loss to the Mets.
Why not Infante? Can we PLEASE, for the love of all holy relics, sit Chipper until he gets around to retiring? Infante goes 4-for-4 and he gets BENCHED? wtf, Bobby?
agree……. That’s exactly what I said Audi. I’ve been saying this since Esco got back and I even called XM Radio and expressed my dislike about this. YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. You do that by playing your hottest hitter, the hell with loyalty. Esco should not be in there. This guy needs to earn his spot again. Maybe that would lite a fire under his ass.
Last night, Bobby should of piched hit for McCann in the 8th inning with the basesloaded. Bobby knows better then that, especially since he’s the guy who pays close attention to matchups. BMac has been strugging all season, especially with leftys. I told my brother before he even went to the plate he was going to SO, high fast ball in the hands. BINGO!!!!
Play Infante!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chipper would just be Bobby Cox 2.0 if he was a manager. Him and Bobby have the same "eh, we’ll get em tomorrow" attitude, and IMO that is killing this. Just ride off into the sunset and retire chipper. And please, be quick about it.
bobby cox is a BELOVED manager
I’m guessing there is NOT a large contingent that thinks he consistently makes poor decisions.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
This was the challenge
I’ll bet I can find plenty of comments from fans who think so-and-so’s boneheaded decision hurt the team’s chances of winning on a regular basis.
Bad Horse seems to have satisfied it pretty quickly.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Yeah, I guess I wasn’t responding to the challenge mostly because it’s absurdly low standard to plant (I mean I can find negative Internet comments about having sex with supermodels if I searched enough). He (or she) said, “Name one team in MLB whose fan base does not include a large contingent that thinks their manager consistently makes poor decisions.” I was trying respond to that portion. Don’t say I ignore you buddy.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
Sure - it wasn't a high bar to meet
but that’s what they were doing.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Now the argument becomes....
what is a “large portion” for a team that averages over 2 million in attendance?
When you watch the Orioles every night, a beer after dinner turns into a six pack WAY too many times. Stacey
I think we need to do some exit polling outside the stadium.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Before you even posted this....
…we decided to back off from making it a “daily” thing. Because it does pre-judge DD. The title of the feature is being reworked to not include “daily”.
That said, DD’s WTF will be absolutely be a regular feature here. We may still very well post on a daily basis, but that depends on DD.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
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