And With the Third Pick.... Part Four: Where We Stand
by James F on May 26, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
in Minors & Draft
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PrintIn two weeks, the draft will be underway, and the mystery of who will be the next top pick of the Orioles will be solved. This pick ought to be a pretty big deal in the history of this organization. It is the highest pick the Orioles have had since they selected Ben McDonald first overall in the 1989 draft.
The following year, the Orioles selected Mike Mussina 20th overall. But in the 19 drafts since then, the Orioles have been mostly a story of ineptitude in the draft. Our first round picks since Mussina were Mark Smith, Jeffrey Hammonds, Jay Powell, Alvie Shepherd, Jayson Werth, Darnell McDonald, Rick Elder, Keith Reed, Richard Stahl, Mike Paradis, Larry Bigbie, Beau Hale, Mike Fontenot, Chris Smith, Adam Loewen, Nick Markakis, Wade Townsend, Brandon Snyder, Bill Rowell, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, and Matt Hobgood.
We all know this story by heart now, and know that our first round picks were fallow for a long time. But the full measure of how bad we have done in the draft isn't made clear by our failures in the first round. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo recently totaled up the MVP, Cy Young, All-Star, Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger awards won by players drafted by all 30 major league teams in the past decade. The Orioles were one of four teams whose draftees had not won a single major award over that period, tied for the worst in baseball. Over that same period both the Red Sox and Rays have drafted a Rookie of the Year. The Red Sox have drafted players who have made 11 All Star appearances in the last decade. We have drafted none. And eight of our last ten picks have been in the top ten overall.
Many of us, including me, hope that recent draftees such as Wieters and Matusz will end this streak of futility in producing stars from our draft picks. But if they and the rest of the Orioles' draftees continue to fail to reach their potential, our years of futility are almost certain to continue. For all the daily fury that our poor free agent signings and questionable managerial decisions inspire, nothing has contributed more to our losing record this season than our lack of impact talent throughout our roster.
At present, the consensus of most evaluators and reporters believe that the Orioles will select prep righthander Jameson Taillon with the third pick, with the Orioles also looking hard at prep shortstop Manny Machado. Machado and Taillon are both also being considered by the Pirates, and the Orioles will likely select whichever player the Pirates choose not to take. Taillon is the consensus top prep arm, and Machado the consensus top prep bat, and so for those who believe in taking the top talent available, either should be pleasing.
There remains, however, a chance the Orioles go another direction. The Orioles could consider third baseman Zack Cox of the University of Arkansas. Cox, a draft-eligible sophomore who bats lefty, is an athletic player at the hot corner with 11 steals in 12 attempts for the Razorbacks. Cox showed major power potential as a freshman, hitting 13 home runs and was named as a Louisville Slugger freshman All-American. He went on to show his potential with wood bats in the Cape Cod League, batting .344 and was named MVP of the Cape Cod All-Star game. This season, Cox has seen his power numbers fall (only 8 home runs so far) but has transformed himself into an on-base machine, batting .432 and walking 33 times while only striking out 29 times. Cox's tools, performance, and polish make him one of the top college bats available in the class, along with catcher Yasmani Grandal, shortstop Christian Colon, and outfielder Michael Choice. Of those four, only Cox and Colon are likely to be strongly considered by the Orioles.
Another college player the Orioles are rumored to be considering is North Carolina right-hander Matt Harvey. Harvey, who has nearly ideal pro size at 6'4" and 225 pounds, was Baseball America's #1 high school prospect for the 2007 draft, but was considered a difficult sign and went to the Tar Heels despite being selected in the third round by the Angels. Harvey was a freshman All-American for North Carolina, but had a very poor sophomore season that saw his stock drop considerably. However, Harvey's stock has risen off of a strong junior campaign, and he is now back solidly in the first round mix. Harvey's calling card is his fastball, which tops out at 97 and has shown that he can maintain his velocity deep into starts. He also has a slider he has recently developed with plus potential, a curve that was a plus pitch for him in high school but which he seldom throws now, and a rarely used changeup. There are indications, however, that Harvey's arm has been somewhat abused with the Tar Heels, having thrown over 120 pitchers in a single start five times this season, including a whopping 156 pitches against Clemson. Harvey's name has recently been attached to the Orioles in rumors, following reports that GM Andy MacPhail had concerns about selecting another high school player after Hobgood last season.
Due to recent slippage in performance, Drew Pomeranz and Karsten Whitson are unlikely to be selected third overall, leaving (in my opinion) six serious candidates for the Orioles' pick: Taillon, Machado, Cox, Colon, Harvey, and prep righthander Dylan Covey. Taillon and Machado are the highest upside picks, but come with major risk factors. Prep players are boom or bust candidates, and with Taillon expected to command a record bonus and Machado a Boras client, both will severely limit the ability of the Orioles to spend in later rounds unless the draft budget is significantly changed from recent years. Cox and Colon would both represent less upside than the prep twosome, but would demand less money and provide more certainty. Harvey would represent a big comeback for the former top prep after many people no longer considered him a first rounder due to his poor sophomore season with a tremendous amount of risk for a college hurler. Covey would be a wild card, a pick reminiscent of the Hobgood selection with the Orioles bucking the conventional wisdom to select a player who is a consensus mid-first rounder with a top five pick.
Whoever the Orioles select, the expectations will be high. With our highest pick in twenty years and our long streak of futility both in the draft and in the majors, how could they not be?
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I voted Machado
But if he’s picked then Taillon is my choice.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
oh yea
With the reasoning being that those two are probably the BPA’s and I would rather add some over-slot arms later in the draft because they seem to be more plentiful than high upside position players later in the draft.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 26, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts exactly
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
I have no idea
But I voted for Machado. Because if there is one thing I’ve learned since becoming old enough to vote, it doesn’t matter if you know what you’re doing.
by Stacey on May 26, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The MLB draft seems like the most random of all the drafts
but I’d like to see them take Cox. The college bat with the plate discipline.
"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008
Adam Jones is the tits.
by KenDixonFanClub on May 26, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions
The MLB draft is the trickiest
Because of all the ranges of ages and positions. Not to mention signability usually plays a role as well. Its not quite as simple as other drafts.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 26, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
My current board, for what it is worth
1. Harper. Clearly the elite talent in this class.
2. Taillon. High school players are always risky. Taillon has the upside to justify it, and prep pitchers who survive attrition by injury can pay off huge.
3. Colon. I just love this kid’s ability and drive, and I think he has the best chance of anyone in this class to living up to his potential.
4. Machado. I think he’s a huge risk, but there are too many defensive questions about Cox for me to put him ahead here.
5. Cox. Not a lot of college bats with 70 hit tools, much less ones that people think can play third or possibly second base.
6. Pomeranz. I think people make too much out of a few uneven starts. Polished college southpaws are premium.
7. Chris Sale. The O’s will never go with a corner outfield bat at third overall, but this kid can mash.
I don’t like Covey or Harvey enough to really consider them where the O’s are picking.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I don't follow the draft much,
but based on this and what little else I’ve read, I have to admit I’d be really tempted to take Colon. No idea if that’s the best decision or not, but barring significant struggles, he’d be able to help the team sooner rather than later at a position of need — and it’s not like we’d be “drafting for need” and missing out on talent, just going with a lower-risk signing.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Jayson Werth turned out just fine!
Our first round picks since Mussina were Mark Smith, Jeffrey Hammonds, Jay Powell, Alvie Shepherd, Jayson Werth, Darnell McDonald, Rick Elder, Keith Reed, Richard Stahl, Mike Paradis, Larry Bigbie, Beau Hale, Mike Fontenot, Chris Smith, Adam Loewen, Nick Markakis, Wade Townsend, Brandon Snyder, Bill Rowell, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, and Matt Hobgood.
There are a few good picks in there. Jayson Werth*, Markakis, Matusz, and Wieters. I wonder how this compares to other organizations. I think I heard on one of those ESPN chats that MacPhail wants to take a college pitcher after watching Hobgood show up out of shape. But the scouts are pushing hard for Taillon.
- It was idiotic for Syd Thrift to trade him after one bad season in the minors especially after calling the next Dale Murphy the season before. And Thrift traded him for a damn reliever!
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
He did
But he was a late bloomer due to some injuries and clearly wasn’t around to help the O’s.
And of course, he wasn’t picked in the last ten years. You can look at the link to see how other clubs did.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
If Taillon is the pick
I’m guessing the O’s will need to assess him fairly quickly and then start working on deals where they pick up some position talent in return for some of the young arms. Hopefully they figure it out and sell high.
Machado is the kind of position player the O’s need, but sooner than three or four years. Big question is how long before he can make it up where he’s sorely needed. Of course assuming he truly has the talent.
I'd be completely happy with Taillon or Machado
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Great primer, James
I really enjoyed this. My pick would be Taillion, though there is some talk on other forums about him demanding a major league contract which would be a terrible idea IMO. My fear is a Taillion or Machado pick limits the overslot strategy for later in the draft, but thanks to Three Mile Mike Gonzalez the Orioles don’t pick in the second round…
Librarians are hiding something
Our first round picks since Mussina were Mark Smith, Jeffrey Hammonds, Jay Powell, Alvie Shepherd, Jayson Werth, Darnell McDonald, Rick Elder, Keith Reed, Richard Stahl, Mike Paradis, Larry Bigbie, Beau Hale, Mike Fontenot, Chris Smith, Adam Loewen, Nick Markakis, Wade Townsend, Brandon Snyder, Bill Rowell, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, and Matt Hobgood.
This a paragraph made me nauseous.
Jonathan Mayo recently totaled up the MVP, Cy Young, All-Star, Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger awards won by players drafted by all 30 major league teams in the past decade. The Orioles were one of four teams whose draftees had not won a single major award over that period, tied for the worst in baseball. Over that same period both the Red Sox and Rays have drafted a Rookie of the Year. The Red Sox have drafted players who have made 11 All Star appearances in the last decade. We have drafted none. And eight of our last ten picks have been in the top ten overall.
C’mon, the All-Star game? I agree on our futility on all the other awards, but the AS voting is an absolute joke. Thinking of the AS Game as anything other than a popularity contest (pitched towards the teams ESPN is backing) is counter-productive.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Eh
You have a point. But it is still sad. The guys we draft don’t even win popularity contests.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Not that the Gold Glove isn't one, too.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
I love the stuff James F posts
It’s like having our own Sickels or Goldstein.
by Dingbat Charlie on May 26, 2010 4:41 PM EDT reply actions
MLB Fanhouse has a mock draft.
# 1. Nationals | Bryce Harper © | College of Southern Nevada
Nothing has changed here. Harper is all but a lock in this spot. Washington GM Mike Rizzo told reporters last night he knows who he’ll take with this pick.
# 2. Pirates | Manny Machado (SS) | Brito H.S. (Miami, Fla.)
Harper is a lock at No. 1, and while Machado isn’t nearly to that point yet, he’s becoming the heavy favorite here. They may have even begun discussing a deal, according to sources. A Scott Boras client, Machado has also pulled out of a key pre-draft event, the Florida High School Classic, something he’d clearly benefit from attending if his status wasn’t already solidified. Pomeranz could push his way back into the picture here with a knockout SEC Tournament performance.
# 3. Orioles | Jameson Taillon (RHP) | The Woodlands (Texas) H.S.
Although I’ve heard Matt Harvey discussed in this spot, all signs still point to Taillon still landing here. Many scouts call him one of the best high school arms to emerge in recent years and the O’s will not pass up a shot at him.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
With the Season all But down the tubes it is refreshing to talk draft. Thanks James F
I chose Taillion. At 6’7", 230lbs the fastball is in the high 90’s. His curve is 12 to 6 with bite. He is a risk as a prep guy however he is the best after Harper. If the Pirates take this guy I have no problem with Machado going to us at #3. What bothers me the most is that the Orioles will not have another pick until the 87th pick. So with that said they better get this right.
Success in 2010. Playoffs in 2011. Go Orioles!
and then they need to go over-slot and make the rest of our picks count
This is disapointing because apparently a lot of teams may go with slot picks b/c next year is supposedly deeper. So there may be talent sitting around in the second round that really could have helped us.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 27, 2010 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions
The O's ability to go overslot may be limited
If we select Taillon or Machado, we’ll be talking about a bonus in the $6-10 million range. In which case, even though the O’s should still spend in later rounds IMO, they probably won’t break the bank.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Wow, 6-10 million you think?
I dont see that much, Matzek signed for $3.9. Porcello signed for $3.5.
Although Tate signed for $6.7 (although he was a two sport athlete so thats spread out over time I believe and he had more leverage). With our budget generally being between $7 and $8.5 million recently, we should hopefully be picking up players in later rounds. At least a few to make up for no 2nd rounder.
This is where signability plays in for me. Lets say Machado is demanding Tate money and Taillon wants Porcello money. If they are both available does that change your pick? It would probably change mine, but thats because I believe them to be simmilar talents.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 27, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, Porcello signed a major league deal
worth $7.28 million plus the $3.5 bonus, for a total of $11.1 million. I figure that Machado gets something between $6-7 million and Taillon gets $8-10 million. Remember, Machado is a Boras client and Taillon has a strong Rice commit.
I don’t really think the money should make a difference; as I’ve written here numerous times, you can’t spend too much money on the draft. That said, suppose someone like Austin Wilson falls all the way to our pick in the third round. Unless the Orioles change their spending habits to something that I think makes more sense, you have to ask yourself if Colon/Cox/Whitson plus Wilson is better than Taillon or Machado by themselves. There are some real wild cards in this class, guys like Wilson and Zach Lee who are true first round talents who may not be signable at any price and will likely fall because of it. It would be nice to take a run at one with our third round pick, since it is protected and we’ll get a comp pick if they don’t sign. But to sign them we’re talking about multiple millions of dollars, if at all.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Ok that makes more sense
That number for Porcello seemed really low to me. Both those guys do have a lot of leverage. Also this reminds me, why did Taillon choose Rice, thats just not smart. If he does go to school his value will be lowered just because people will assume his arm was abused.
I agree that you can’t spend too much money on the draft but if you thought two players were similar but one was asking for half the price that probably changes your pick right? Either way, this team needs high upside prospects in the system so even if we pick an expensive first pick thats no excuse to go cheap later on.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 27, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd think the budget expands with a top 3 pick
Just like the Nationals last year with Stras. You have to make exceptions for top talent. I hope they go for Machado if the Pirates pass. Taillon has gas but only 2 pitches and high school arms are extremely risky, especially at that price.
What makes you say he has only two pitches?
The scouting reports I’ve seen say he has three plus pitches, fastball/curve/slider, along with a solid change that he just doesn’t use much (because no high school pitchers do). His advanced arsenal is part of what makes him so highly regarded.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
The Waste Land
Reading the list of First Round pics reminds me of the poem, The Waste Land. I wonder if we picked untalented players who, for that reason, could not be developed? Or, did we pick good players whom we failed to develop because our minor league system is bad? Or, a combination.
Syd Thryft. Please don’t mention that name again. I break out in hives whenever I hear it. To think that Angelos hired Thryft because Thryft was supposed to be a player development guru.
Nothing earth shattering, but from Jim Bowdon on Twitter:
@JimBowdenXMFOX: Andy MacPhail just told us that he wants the best long term player in the draft & wants a Pitcher..sounds like Taillon
Andy's words to live by:
You win with pitching and… um… more pitching. I’m pretty sure that’s all you need.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Pitching, pitching, pitching
so we can lose more game 3-1.
When you watch the Orioles every night, a beer after dinner turns into a six pack WAY too many times. Stacey
I have a hard time arguing against it
And everyone I’ve spoken to has pretty much told me so at this point.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
As if there isn't enough reasons to be depressed as a O's fan ...
… we get reminded of the O’s draft history.
Man it’s depressing. What ever happened to the organization that ranked with the Dodgers as having one of the best reputations for signing and developing talent?
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
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