DDDWTF for 5/27: Another round of reliever roulette
Andrew G said pretty much all there is to say about this in the comments of today's Bird Droppings, and who am I to duplicate efforts? So here are his words, edited only to remove language not suitable for the front page.
What really bothers me about this is why did he put Berken in there for just the one batter anyway? In the post game Trembley showed a truly stunning lack of intelligence when asked about Hendrickson not getting lefties out (you have to go lefty vs. lefty there), but he also said that he wanted some experience in that situation. So what made Berken experienced enough to come in with 2 on and no outs in the 8th? Why bring him in for just one guy? What was the point of that?
And what is this experience jive about anyway? And why are we letting stats dictate the way we play baseball? Bergesen was removed so that he could still get the win even if the inherited runners scored. That was the given explanation for removing Bergesen – they wanted him to get the W. Is anyone else quite as outraged about how stupid this all is as I am?
Seriously, he used 5 pitchers in the last two innings, because of how it would look on their baseball cards, because of phantom platoon matchups that he doesn’t understand, and because apparently experience is what is called for in the late innings with your bullpen (which is such BS that I can’t even see straight). Alfredo Simon didn’t have experience in the late innings, and while he wasn’t exactly great, he got the job done – you know why? Because experience doesn’t matter. Or it shouldn’t. If that’s the way he manages, all it will do is make those innings more stressful on whoever he puts in there.
It’s the next morning, and I’m still steamed about this garbage.
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I've figured it out
Dave plays fantasy baseball and has Bergesen on his team.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
Then Dave's not good at FB either
Losses don’t count
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on May 28, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
i've seen leagues where they do
But it wouldnt surprise me if he didn’t realize that
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 28, 2010 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Losses count for -5 points in the league i'm in
Is DD in the CC fantasy league?
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
find out if 3E1N is rostered
and let us know who has him
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 28, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
He is owned by "The Fightin' Participants"
It can’t be DD though. He hasn’t made a single pitching change this week.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
by daveh873 on May 28, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You know,
at the beginning of the year, I was on DT’s side. I figured you couldn’t blame him for players not performing well (that’s Terry Crowley’s fault), but this is idiotic. I’ve done a complete 180, he needs to go. This man should not be managing an MLB team. It seems like he’s playing 1950s-style baseball. I don’t care that ‘traditionally’ a lefty gets a lefty out, how is THIS particular pitcher against lefties? Why yank a guy when he’s on a roll? I can not believe the bone-headed moves I’m seeing from DT. He is over-managing this team – almost like he is afraid that if doesn’t make a bajillion moves a game, people are going to think he’s not ‘managing’. Sheesh. You’ve already lost your job Dave, it’s not going to make any difference now.
I am positive that most of the Orioles fans on this site could manage this team FAR better than DT has.
"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."
I wonder how many other MLB managers think reliever roulette is a good strategy
I guess in the plus column you’d have to put somebody like Tony LaRussa, whose reputation is one of a tinkerer. Does it ever work for other teams that have actually been good in recent years? Maybe it works when you have above average relievers rather than just a mediocre assortment that generally succeeds only due to luck.
I don’t have a problem with pulling Bergesen there. “So he could get the win” is a stupid reason to pull him, though. He only had 93 pitches but the first two guys looked like they were dialed in and he looked like he wasn’t fooling anybody for the rest of the night. One might also argue that the young pitcher needs to learn how to get out of a jam and I would accept that line of thinking too.
For all the rest you can only ask: why? (And Trembley does not have an acceptable answer.) Why yank Berken after one batter, ignoring his platoon splits for the year? Why bring in Hendrickson after Berken, also ignoring platoon splits? Why bring in Castillo for one batter in the 9th?
Unfortunately, I think we all know this won’t be the last time this season we deal with a similar situation the day after a game.
I'm ready for a straight jacket. - Joe Angel, 4/17/10 (O's record: 1-11)
by Eat More Esskay on May 28, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
yes, this.
my problem is not per se with the moves themselves, but with the reasoning behind them. Getting the right answer for the wrong reason gets you no credit in this class. And Trembley’s reasoning leaves a LOT to be desired.
"The wise man saith, 'Put all your eggs in the one basket and--WATCH THAT BASKET.'"
I'm sure Bergesen
really appreciates receiving a no decision instead of a win. Keep up the good work, Dave.
According to ESPN stats
Here are the career splits for the two pitchers.
Berken
vs. left ab: 36 avg: .194 obp: .216 slg: .222
vs. right ab: 52 avg: .327 obp: .357 slg: .481
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=30363
Hendrickson
vs. left ab: 38 avg: .342 obp: .386 slg: .474
vs. right ab: 62 avg: .306 obp: .353 slg: .435
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5295
We’re not talking about a ton of at bats, but the picture is pretty clear. Hendrickson just isn’t good against anyone. Let him pitch when the O’s are out of the game, he’ll get plenty of chances. Berken is a BP candidate with some decent stuff and we hope he can figure it out. Plus he’s better against lefties.
I was going to bust out the 07-09 splits to play devils advocate
But Berken’s all came as a starter so they cant really be used. Hendo’s OPS against was 100 points lower vs. lefties than vs. righties.
Still, berken was in already and he’s been the hot hand. It just doesnt make sense.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 28, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Trembley
was not a good manager in the first place and his understanding of modern baseball thinking has been limited, at best, from day one. To paraphrase Rawls from The Wire:
“We are trying to build a baseball organization that relies on computer generated data in its decision making, not your fly-by-your-fucked-up-ass intuition.”
But it’s been clear for a couple months now that he’s simply lost in the woods. The Lineup Bingo every night or so and inexplicable bullpen decisions are doing nothing more than making a bad situation even worse.
trembers
has never struck me as a thinking man’s man, let alone manager, and hes showed time and time again his ineptitude to adapt to adversity and make any type of decent decisions game time, but what he lacks upstairs he tries to make up for off the field with stoicism, cheesy anecdotes, and calling people strictly by their last names.
but i dont think we’ll have to worry about seeing him too much longer. give me Mike Bordick, Chris Hoiles, or BJ Surhof, in there round july and start putting the pieces in place for 2011
"you know what the orioles could use right now? a day off." - joe angel
Heck
I’d let Atkins manage if it got him out of the lineup.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on May 28, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wayward, where are you?
Please join the fray and defend yesterday’s events.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
1) DT has always managed like this from day one. He always he burns though relievers like a chain smoker.
2) If you’re going to bring in a lefty to face Barton, why not use Ohman who is actually good at getting lefties out? Instead, he saves Ohman for large leads.
3) As Palmer immediately pointed out last night and as pointed out above, Hendrickson isn’t good at getting lefties out.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
On the black humor front
playing ’where’s the DDDWTF?’ each night is kinda fun. Even though I knew I would be pissed in a half hour, but I had a moment of pleasure when Dave came out of the dugout for Berken — THERE IT IS! Tonight’s WTF! Like spotting Waldo.
Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
Where's Waldo puzzles are way harder
Dave’s usually pretty blatant about being terrible
by kba26 on May 28, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When 3E1N came out
I wasn’t terribly surprised DT removed 3E1N. It’s pretty standard practice, and this doesn’t mean this makes it right though, to take out a starter once his W is in jeopardy. That said, i was hoping he would leave 3E1N in because he had been getting so many ground balls all night. But I wasn’t pissed or surprised when he brought in Berken. He’s our best reliever other than Ohman. It’s key situation. He’s the right man. I wasn’t scratching my head until he brought in Hendo.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
ahahaha we're syndicated
I was curious how many folks are talking about this, so I news-Googled “trembley berken” .
Turns out DDDWTF is getting picked up by the Googlebots! All the better:

"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
WTF is right..
How inept of a GM/Owner must you be to not realize that DT needs to be fired? When was the last time MacPhail really did a good job either? Minnesota? What is Kranitz thinking when DT spins the bulpen roulette wheel. How bout we hire Phil Garner? We have this Double AA team coach here in San Antonio who pulls pitchers after 5/6 innings of no hit ball too that boggles my mind…saying that it is only for the betterment of his pitcher…we should start doing a DDDWTF game poll just like MBP polls that i see…last thing i want a DDDWTF shirt!! lol
DDDWTF shirt
with the slogan on the back …Have you seen my baseball…team?
Pulling AA pitchers after 5-6 innings...
…no matter how they are doing isn’t a bad idea in my book. Starters at that level should be throwing 75-90 pitches a game.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Pitch count
yeah i would understand the high PC too but they were all in low 70s and dealing..8+ Ks and anything hit was weak at best…
Eh
It is hard to say anything too specific when what I know about the situation is so general. But the minor leagues aren’t about wins and losses.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
So it was cool
that Tillman threw 114 pitches the other night, right? These kids, they need to learn to pitch deep into games donchaknow.
"The wise man saith, 'Put all your eggs in the one basket and--WATCH THAT BASKET.'"
I don't agree with it, personally
And I think it isn’t a coincidence that Melewski wrote about how the minor league pitchers need to go deeper into games and within the next two days we see that from Tillman and 112 pitches from Arrieta and the complete game from Zagone. At the time I thought that article was filled with horrible ideas, and the more I think about it, the more I think it was fed to him from someone in the organization.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Not the hardest phone number to find in the MASN corporate directory, either, I'd imagine
There would have to be a certain amount of this going on. It goes on with mainstream media as well – someone within the org has an idea, and feeds it to a beat reporter, and it sees the light of day.
When you watch the Orioles every night, a beer after dinner turns into a six pack WAY too many times. Stacey
I'm with you
I cringe every time I hear someone say something akin to “how are these young pitchers ever going to learn how to pitch past 100 pitches, or 110 pitches, if they never do?”. Uh, guys, Tillman is 22 years old. Let’s not turn into Rice University here, mmkay?
"The wise man saith, 'Put all your eggs in the one basket and--WATCH THAT BASKET.'"
Not to mention the risk/reward problem
Let’s see, what do we get out of it if they do “learn” to go deeper into games? 10-15 more pitches per start? And what do we risk? Arm injury that at least results in zero starts being made for a while and perhaps ruins the asset long-term.
Pretty simple to me.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
this.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Trembley is a terrible bullpen manager.
I will not be sorry to see him go.
But I have two questions:
1. Who is out there to replace him?
2. Will that replacement actually have any better grasp of the things that we’re complaining about here? Bunts, h&r, misuse of the bullpen, over-reliance on ‘veteran presence;’ all that crap is pretty deeply ingrained in the old school baseball culture, and Andy doesn’t strike me as the guy who is gonna go and hire a manager who isn’t already part of the old school baseball culture.
"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008
Adam Jones is the tits.
by KenDixonFanClub on May 28, 2010 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
1. Who is out there to replace him?
1) A magic eight ball > DT.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
I'll fix that for you
A magic eight ball = DT
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 28, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
nope - greater than
Magic 8 Ball is succinct and entertaining.
Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
by 33 on May 28, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Should I replace Meredith with Castillo?
All signs point to yes!
"The wise man saith, 'Put all your eggs in the one basket and--WATCH THAT BASKET.'"
8-Ballin
Shake it up…Can’t tell you now…lol…i am sure he has the Staples button too then…that was easy…
Well, I'll say it.
Maybe it’s because I live in the Bay Area, and I’ve seen every manager that’s come by (for the A’s and Giants) get continually dumped on by the fans, but I really don’t think managers are generally as dumb as the fans think. Some Giants fans kept a count of “Dusty losses” in which they counted games in which Dusty Baker had cost the Giants a win, even as the Giants were going to the playoffs every year. Felipe Alou was also considered inept, and the McCovey Chronicles folks are all over Bruce Bochy. Art Howe was mercilessly criticized during the A’s run of success in the early 00’s, and Ken Macha and Bob Geren after him.
Managers have to make decisions. When they do, some fans will think it’s the wrong one. The fans can never be proven wrong, because their scenario doesn’t play out. But the manager’s decisions will go wrong every now and then, and given that every baseball team loses quite a few games, the manager will seem wrong.
I’m not talking about any specific fan, any specific manager, or any specific decision. It just seems to me that a lot of baseball fans think that the dumbest baseball person in the stadium is the one managing his or her team.
Here's what i think the difference is
Trembley makes the same calls. every single night. And much of the time, it does not mesh with what we know to be true about baseball or the his previous success making those same exact calls. Then, in a far too large of a percentage of time to chalk up to mere second guessing, it fails to work. I’m not criticizing him for a bunch of individual mistakes (and to some degree I do think looking for a DDDWTF every night isnt necessarily fair). I’m criticizing him for having a consistent failed strategy that he either is unaware of or refuses to change.
The sad part is about DDDWTFs...
we don’t have to look for them. They become self-evident.
When you watch the Orioles every night, a beer after dinner turns into a six pack WAY too many times. Stacey

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