What to do about Nolan Reimold?
by Stacey on May 4, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
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Nolan Reimold, our pleasant surprise from 2009, the rookie with the patient eye and the power bat, has been nothing but a disappointment this season. He's been unable to come close to his success last year through the first month of the season and it's really hurting the team. His Achilles injury delayed him in Spring Training but we haven't heard about it lately and it doesn't appear to be affecting him. He's just not hitting and at some point something is going to have to be done.
Reimold's patience hasn't waivered; he's not chasing balls out of the strike zone. He's walked 9 times in his 74 plate appearances, which isn't really much to go on, but it is a 12.2% walk rate. That's up from his 11.4% rate in 2009 and behind only Nick Markakis on the team. I think that's actually what has made watching Reimold more bearable than Adam Jones this year. Both are having their troubles (although Adam seems to be getting it together thank goodness), but Nolan isn't flailing around out there looking totally lost.
If anything, Reimold is being too patient (or tentative, perhaps). Last season he swung at 20.5% of balls outside the strike zone; this year he's at 17.8%. Unfortunately he's swinging at a lot less balls inside the strike zone as well, just 50.7% compared to 63.7% in 2009. Overall he only swings at 34.4% of all pitches, lowest in the team by a pretty big margin. That's a whole lot of standing around looking, and explains his increased strikeout rate (25.4%, which is better than only Rhyne Hughes and Luke Scott).
When he does swing, Reimold is making contact a little bit less frequently than he did last year, but his BABIP is just .213 (last year it was .316), probably because he's hitting a lot of fly balls without enough power to get them over the fence.
It's still early and Reimold has time to turn it around, of course. It would appear that he needs to be a little more aggressive at the plate. It seems bizarre to say that about an Oriole, especially with the knock on the O's being that they go after pitches too frequently. Reimold appears to be the complete opposite of Adam Jones. If he can drop his K rate back down closer to 20% and put more balls into play, maybe his BABIP would get back up to a more respectable number.
The question is, how long can or will the Orioles wait for Reimold to get his act together? He does have minor league options but we haven't heard if any consideration has been given to sending him back down. If it would help him in the long run I'd be all for it, but then there is the issue of replacing him. Luke Scott can play left field of course but he's just as cold at the plate, and if you move him there you still have to replace the DH. The current options on the bench are no better, and the outfielders in AAA are behind Lou Montanez on the depth chart for crying out loud. For now it seems that Reimold will continue to try and figure things out at the major league level, and hopefully he'll put it together soon.
I miss Felix Pie.
(All data from FanGraphs)
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Nolan
I like Nolan a lot, and I feel confident that he will straighten himself out. Were it my decision, I would send him back to AAA or even AA to regain his confidence. Because of his surgery, Nolan could not hit over the off season, and his spring training was curtailed. Think of the demotion as extended spring training.
The Os can’t afford to have so many players on the team who are stone cold at the plate: Lou, Lugo, Nolan, and Luke. Salazar is hitting well in Notfolk. Why not bring him up and let either Luke or Nolan, or both, return to the minors to regain confidence. Besides Salazar, no one else leaps out as a candidate for promotion.
The problem with promoting Salazar...
….is that he’s not on the 40-man roster.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Out with the old, in with the Reimold
I don’t think they will move Nolan anywhere. I think any of the possible replacement ideas would be a lot harder to watch. I really hope he turns it around and I am hoping its just an extended slump.
The future is not what it used to be.
What the media did not tell you.
Nolan is fine...
With young players you have to becareful of predicting what to expect. I realize that last year’s success might put us in a wishing mode, but what makes these guys young, outside of your once-in-a-generation Pujols types who’ll be good everyday from Day 1, is that they are still learning and inconsistent. Maybe last year was better than what we might expect from him on the career? Maybe this year thus far is a fluke? The liklihood is that both samples probably have the basic seeds of his game in there.
The thing that encourages me that he’s ok, is that you don’t find many young players who’s “problem” might be too much much patience. That in itself is rare. I think it is reasonable to expect something about a .250-.270 career AVG with above-average power, mix in a few career maybe-All-Star years, and that sounds do-able. Right now his achilles is probably a bigger problem than has been publically known, and/or Reimold himself is trying to play through it because of pressure that he might lose his chance at the majors if he doesn’t. Remember that he suffered a lat injury in the minors that forced a lost season and a half so he knows what that’s like. The key thing about an achilles injury is that it’s the plant foot for turning on fastballs. I would keep an eye on how he fares on inside fastballs. If he’s able to pull them with any measure of authority, he is probably ok. Though his success last year was being able to stay between the fastball and offspeed by trying to go the other way, while getting power on happy accidents.
Great stuff, Stacey
It’s almost funny his problem is being too patient. Be careful what you wish for, I guess.
"Oh, and Joe? If Brian hits any of your delicate millionaires, know that he meant it." - Stacey
He seems emotionally distressed.
Seriously, he looks like the saddest person on the team, which can happen when you’re in the worst slump of your career, but he just seems different from last year.
"Amber has quick hands." ~ Joe Angel, 4/8/10
nolan is NOT fine!
Send his automatic-out ass down to AAA until he has a clue what he’s doing at the plate. He is still a young man – the league has adapted to him but he cannot make the adjustment. Figure what your doing down in Norfolk and not on our time!
Yea, he's totally stealing at bats from Lou Montanez and Corey Patterson
Unless he’s legit hurt, I don’t really see much of a point in demoting him. He’s still walking, which means his discipline hasn’t totally collapsed. As lame as it sounds, I think that this is one of those things that will work itself out. There is absolutely no one else that can fill in and do much better (as sad as that is). The kid is talented. We let Nick work through his issues. Let’s let Nolan figure it out. It isn’t like he’s keeping us from our playoff run or anything anyway.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
+1
The future is not what it used to be.
What the media did not tell you.
by John Stephens on May 4, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Nolan probably will never hit for average like Nick
and he’s definitely not the fielder Nick is, but he’s pretty damn patient at the plate and has more power potential. I’d imagine Nolan has a chance of becoming a very similar player OPS wise. Regardless, he seems to be able to figure things out as he goes. I don’t know why you think it’s impossible for him to improve at the ML level much like Nick did.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
and also that there's NOBODY to take his place at the moment.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
-1
The future is not what it used to be.
What the media did not tell you.
by John Stephens on May 4, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
So how is he going to learn to adjust to MLB pitching in AAA?
Especially when he left Norfolk with hitting .394/.485/.743. He has nothing to learn there.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
Ugh... this is endemic of the whole line-up more or less
and it’s not like I’ve been paying close attention all season long, but I’ve noticed in a few games that there seems to be a LOT of standing around and looking at pitches in 3-1 counts. That IS, historically speaking, something of a hitter’s count, right? Diamond Dave tried to shine a little light after the game last night, mentioning that we were taking Sabathia deep into counts, and he just “made pitches when he had to”. Um, yeah, b/c every time the count went to 3-1, he threw it belt-high in the middle of the plate. I watched so many of our guys do this last night, and it was just driving me nuts. On a positive note—Dr. Jones is no lollygagger. I’ve seen him run out every dribbler he’s hit during this slump. And boy, have there been a lot of them.
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July."-Earl Weaver
by NoTimeForLove, Dr. Jones! on May 4, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions
Disagree about Jones.
He’s been lollygagging on multiple occasions during the slump.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
I don't think he needs to be any more aggressive at all
I definitely think he belongs in Norfolk for a bit so that he can get his swing and his fielding up to full speed without the pressure of major league games. But I think based on his fielding that he’s been rushed back from injury, and his lack of aggression is to my mind the best sign that he’s got a good head on his shoulders and realizes the limits of what he can currently do.
If he’s healthy enough to play everyday, I think there is no question that he would be playing every day. Which is why I think it is such a huge mistake that he’s in the majors right now in the first place.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
So he knows he can't do it
and therefore he’s not swinging at all? That’s an interesting thought. You’re right, if he can’t do it he shouldn’t be here. He should be on the DL or he should be in the minors.
Sometimes I just want to talk about beer, blowjobs and baseball, y’know? -2632
That's my feeling
I think that if DT thought Reimold could play every day, he would be – at this point, we’re DHing ATKINS and leaving Reimold on the bench, and giving regular starts to Lou in left.. That’s not because Reimold is slumping; it is because he isn’t healthy enough even to DH every day.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Well then that is just another in a line of questions I have about this team in regards to injury
I already feel like they allowed Brian Roberts to play before he was ready, and it’s possible the same thing was done to Felix Pie. What’s going on in the Orioles clubhouse?
Sometimes I just want to talk about beer, blowjobs and baseball, y’know? -2632
Good question
But one thing I really disliked was all the “wins and losses” bullshit from the offseason. Way to tell the manager and staff that their jobs depend on outcomes and not process.
The attitude that some people have that even Reimold at less than 100% is better than our other options I think is exactly wrong. Reimold is one of our club’s best assets, and our goal has to be to maintain and increase his value to us. The difference between losing 95 games and losing 85 games, on the other hand, has no value to us as an organization. But we’ve created a situation where even people with the club are more concerned about winning ten more meaningless games rather than with improving the value of the players we control.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
This is an interesting perspective
Like I said above, if he’s legit hurt, then get him out of here. I don’t even think he should be playing in the minors if that’s the case. Let him rest more and come back after the break. It’ll suck to watch Lou out there every day, but it’s not that much worse than what we’re seeing with Nolan right now anyway.
If we’re talking about sending him down to work on his swing, I don’t really see the point. He’s used to ML pitching and we have coaches here that can (or should be able to) help him. If we’re talking about him being injured and possibly aggrivating that, then DL him and be done with it. He is NOT someone whose career I want to see derailed over something as stupid as winning a couple more games this season.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
I agree with this
I was more saying that it is possible he’s at the point in his recovery where playing a few innings every couple of days will help him get to full speed – an injury rehab assignment if you will. Because he’s not been on the DL, he can’t be demoted for one, but we could just demote him anyways instead of compounding the mistake by trying to work him back into game shape at the major league level where the outcome of each play matters more.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
+1 to you and James F above.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with saying that you think the team should be able to win more games this year and that that’s a goal, but mishandling (yet another?) injury case for the sake of the short-term win-loss record is a bad, bad idea. We have Nolan for another, what, four or five seasons after this? Yeah, let’s risk messing most of those up so we can be 72-90 instead of 69-93 this year.
Better idea?
Atkins and Lugo go, Luke plays LF, Wiggy and Hughes play 1B and DH, Turner comes up to play 2B and backup at SS (with Wiggy shifting to 2B when needed), and we bring up one of our depth guys to be the 4th OF.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
I'd rather see Corey Patterson than Lou Montanez anyway
Warm memories and all…
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
Team slump
If he’s healthy enough to play everyday, I think there is no question that he would be playing every day.
well if the entire team wasn’t in a slump and he was this bad then yes, I would agree. My personal feeling is that him not playing everyday is a result of DT trying to find a lineup that works. when you have lou, luke, and reimold all sucking it up right now and DT working his match-up magic you get the inconsistency in playing time which I feel doesn’t help the situation. We know what he can do. Out of the three, Reimold is the best option. I feel you just let the kid play and work through it. The problem is Luke and Reimold splitting time isn’t going to get either through it especially with lou in the mix now.
I'm not even sure you can say Reimold is slumping
He’s had 78 total plate appearances. Adam Jones has had 120. Reimold has been inactive in a third of our offensive innings so far due to the combination of being removed for a pinch runner or defensive replacement and having not appeared at all in two games and only as a pinch hitter in five. Reimold only has nine games started in the outfield all year and has only appeared in the field period in ten.
That isn’t matchup magic. That’s a player not healthy enough to play the field, and sometimes even to run the bases.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
what about his fielding tells you he's been rushed back?
He looks about the same as last year to me. Decent, but nothing special.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Great article
Thanks! it’s one of those issues where both sides have a big chunk of the truth. I think going down would help him bring his batting around more quickly. It would be nice for the organization to be a in a position to do it for him. But I agree there’s no available option to make it work. I think he’s level-headed enough that having to suffer through this in public won’t screw him up long term, so his staying up is unfortunate but OK and the best the organization can do overall.
Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
Of all the cold bats in the lineup atm.
His is the one I expect to get active and stay productive.
"Ohhh it's baad" - E. Smith
I'm no sabermetrics expert, but...
From what I do know, everything seems to point to plainly horrible luck. So I’m not sure how worried we should be just yet, painful though it often is to watch. Some numbers (mine differ a little; maybe yours were from before last night?):
Year………..2009………..2010
BB%………..11.4…………11.5
K%………….21.5…………25.4
BABIP………0.316……….0.220
LD%………..14.4%………13.7%
GB%………..48.2%………43.1%
FB%………..37.3%………43.1%
HR/FB%……14.2%………4.5%
So he’s striking out a touch more, which isn’t great, but whatever. He’s converted about 5% of his balls in play from grounders to flies (good!), and the line drive decrease is negligible with so few AB, but his BABIP’s dropped by nearly .100? And his HR/FB% has been cut to a third of its 2009 value (and that 2009 value seems perfectly reasonable to me)? This goes with what you were saying about hitting flies but them not making it out. One thing that helps explain this is his spray chart. It’s only for at home, but you can see that he’s just not pulling the ball unless it’s on the ground.
Either he’s more hurt than anybody’s admitting and it’s really preventing him from hitting for power, or he’s probably just in a nasty slump. I saw that you and James F talked about the former possibility above, and I’m rather concerned that it’s the real issue. I would imagine that if he were still feeling significant pain, it would make it really hard to pull anything.
The one other possibility, and I’d love if this were the case, is that he’s doing what Nick did for the first few weeks, and that Nolan’s about to pick it up (just delayed because the Achilles was bugging him the first couple of weeks and he’s lost some playing time). And wow, this comment got long.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
“or he’s probably just in a nasty slump” not catching any breaks.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Good points
If you look at the Trop, Fenway, and Safeco, all of his XBH on the road, including his 1 HR, are to left center to center. His swing is probably screwed up due to his Achilles.
Also, his home road splits:
OPACY: .103/,229/.138(!) BABIP: .120
ROAD: .237/326/421 BABIP: .320
Maybe he keeps getting bad crabs or something. Or his ex is stalking his house, keeping him from getting any sleep.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
why would significant pain make it really hard to pull anything?
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Speculation on my part.
I was hoping you or someone else with a better idea of swing mechanics than I have would chime in. But, pulling the ball essentially means you have to swing just a touch earlier than you would to hit it to center, right? If you’re being tentative about planting your feet due to pain, that’s going to make it harder to be set to swing for power in time to actually pull, no?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Oh sure it's possible
Although on the other hand, while most HRs are hit to the pull side, if you’re really on the ball you’re driving the gaps and up the middle, so I don’t know…
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
he looks really upset about the slump
but it’s obviously not just him, the entire team is sucking it up with the bat right now. i would really hate to see him go due to a hurt achilles after showing so much promise last year
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
Here's what I'd do with Nolan
Get rid of Atkins, Scott, and Lugo, to keep those guys the hell away from him and Jonesy.
And/or fire Crowley and replace him with Steady Eddie.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
Paul Blair for hitting coach!
"Oh, and Joe? If Brian hits any of your delicate millionaires, know that he meant it." - Stacey
VENTING
SHAVE HIS HEAD GIVE HIM A TAMBORINE AND DROP HIM OFF AT THE AIRPORT!
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