Trading Prospects: A Key to Building a Winning Team
by James F on May 5, 2010 6:53 PM EDT
in Minors & Draft
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PrintYankees General Manager Brian Cashman doesn't get a lot of credit as a developer of minor league talent. Yet for the past eight seasons, Cashman has done an almost unparalleled job turning prospects into major league WAR. He's done it by trading his prospects at the peak of their value.
What do you think would have been a reasonable cost in prospects for such players as Randy Johnson, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Boone, Kevin Brown and Nick Swisher? Cashman got them in deals where the prospects involved were the likes of Dioner Navarro, Brandon Weeden, Brandon Claussen, Charlie Manning, Yhency Brazoban, Joaquin Arias, Brad Halsey, C.J. Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez, Jeff Marquez, Jhonny Nunez, and Carlos Monastrios. If beyond Navarro, none of those names are familiar to you, well, they shouldn't be. None of them went on to succeed at the Major League level; only about half of them ever saw the majors.
A big part of how Cashman has been able to acquire these players for such unspectacular young talent is because he is able to take on contracts that other teams can't or are eager to get rid of. But a big part of it that gets overlooked is that he is able to do it by developing a solid base of low minors prospect talent, and is willing to part with a lot of it. And because he has such a broad base of talent, Cashman is able to make deals while still developing players from within, like Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes, and current top 10 overall prospect Jesus Montero.
Young talent developed from within is of tremendous value in the Majors today, and particularly for a mid-market team like the Orioles, which may not be able to compete, dollar for dollar, with the Yankees and Red Sox. It is also more valuable than ever because teams are being smarter about locking up the best young players before they ever reach the open market. But there is also a simple truth to be faced: many, if not most, of the Orioles' young prospects, will never be more valuable than they are now.
All of us can name prospects who were traded and went on to become stars, like Hanley Ramirez. But for every Hanley, we can name a dozen top prospects who went on to disappoint: Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera from our own recent past, to former top prospects Brandon Wood of the Angels and Alex Gordon of the Royals. At the peak of his value, Wood was a name who was rumored to be about to bring the Angels many different All Stars in potential deals. Now he is struggling to hold on to a roster spot as an out-of-options bust.
Due to the ineptitude of recent Orioles teams, many of us have dreamed of a day when our major league roster features names like Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Caleb Joseph, Brandon Snyder and Brandon Erbe. The unfortunate reality, however, is that most of them will probably not reach their potential. It is quite possible that Adrian Gonzalez, for example, will produce more Wins Above Replacement in 2011 then they will combined in their careers.
I'm not suggesting that we ought to sell the farm for Gonzalez, or that we are necessarily at the point where trading our prospects for other teams' stars is the correct choice. What I think cannot be disputed is that smart teams make sure that they get a major league return from their most valuable assets. The Yankees are not alone in this. In our division, key players such as Josh Beckett and Matt Garza were acquired through trades of top prospects. It is highly improbable that we will able to be a successful, contending franchise without doing likewise.
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Cash has done a good job of trading away crap for good ML players. I’ll give him that. Developer of minor league talent though? Hell no. He’s not awful but he certainly doesn’t stand out.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
I'm making an argument that suggests another way of looking at it
First of all, I think you’d be hard pressed to find many teams who have developed minor league talent like Hughes, Cano, and Montero. But second, I think you have to look not at the ultimate outcome of these prospects, but at their value when they were traded.
In any case, I think that what you call it doesn’t matter that much. Cashman turns prospects into wins at the major league level. Which is the name of this particular game.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
First of all, I think you’d be hard pressed to find many teams who have developed minor league talent like Hughes, Cano, and Montero.
It really be that hard if you’re looking over a 6 or 7 year period (Cano is in his 6th year). Over a 7 year period, every time has a prospect of Cano’s caliber and usually 1 if not 2 of Hughes and Montero (who are/were highly regarded as prospects).
But second, I think you have to look not at the ultimate outcome of these prospects, but at their value when they were traded.
OK, then isn’t it the best way to assess how these prospects were valued when they were traded is to view how the Yank’s farm system stacked up on yearly ranking throughout the 00s? If so, the Yanks aren’t anything special.
Cashman turns prospects into wins at the major league level. Which is the name of this particular game.
Yes, I already acknowledged that. And I wonder if part of that success stems from their ability to extend the acquired player’s contract.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
It WOULDN'T really be that hard if you’re looking over a 6 or 7 year period (Cano is in his 6th year).
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
Sure, that's part of it
But I’m not saying we should be the Yankees. I’m saying we should copy parts of how they have succeeded in combination with our own strategies.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I think that's the point though
He traded his prospects, when had the potential to be great but also the potential to be busts, for proven players at the major league level. If all of our prospects turned out to be solid or All-Star caliber players, we’d be set, but that’s not how the MLB works. And Cashman knows this, which is why he can be considered successful. Of course, the deep pockets help too.
He traded his prospects, when had the potential to be great but also the potential to be busts, for proven players at the major league level.
Yes, I already acknowledged that. And I wonder if part of that success stems from the Yank’s ability to extend the acquired player’s contract (e.g., RJ) or take on an expensive contract that other teams are reluctant to take (e.g., Abreu, Kevin Brown).
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
well you said he traded crap
for his players. But no one really knew they were crap at the time (well, maybe some did, but someone missed the memo because they got traded for). But yeah, I would agree the ability to take on bad contracts can help a team acquire some better players via trades.
well you said he traded crap for his players. But no one really knew they were crap at the time (well, maybe some did, but someone missed the memo because they got traded for)
Sure, obviously I meant in retrospect, but you’re right, at the time, many of the guys traded were considered legit prospects. But almost none of them were considered really good prospects except Claussen and Navarro.
I came to camdenchat and all I got was this lousy avatar.
oh okay
Yeah, pretty much none of them turned out to be very good, :-P
Beckett and Garza
I think the key difference in those trades is that the Garza deal was a prospect for prospect deal (something the Orioles should be doing) and the Beckett deal was your more traditional prospect trade (something the Orioles shouldn’t be doing given current position).
Has Cashman succeeded where others would have failed? Sure. Does that make him a top GM? I wouldn’t go that far.
Librarians are hiding something
I think that both should be explored
The Orioles should definitely be looking to trade for blocked prospects like Yonder Alonso, for example. But another example of a type of trade I think the Orioles should be seeking is a deal like the Tigers made for Miguel Cabrera.
Most stars who get traded are either short-term rentals who come at a discount but will not help you long-term, or are players like Cabrera, Johan Santana, and more recently Roy Halladay who are traded and immediately signed to long-term extensions. Those extensions generally come at a discount to free market prices: Halladay was much cheaper than CC Sabathia was, while Cabrera is being paid about what he is worth but that still is relatively cheaper than Matt Holliday and Mark Teixeira got. Adrian Gonzalez is only 28 years old. Joey Votto is 26. To win, a team needs star players, and those have to come from somewhere.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Cabrera
Trading for Miguel Cabrera would be a good move, assuming the price wasn’t exhorbitant because he is locked into that deal and the Tigers might be desperate to rid themselves of that deal. But I can’t foresee trading for a guy like Adrian Gonzalez and then having him sign a huge extension. I mean, the Orioles suck. Could he go to Boston and extend? Sure, and it’s prolly worth the gamble for Epstein. I mean, would you sign an extension in Baltimore?
Agree on targeting Alonso. And if that meant trading Arrieta, so be it.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on May 5, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
MacPhail might be afraid of a prospect for and prospect deal. If he trades prospects for prospects and it ends up bad for us, he looks really bad. He has so much pressure on him already to rejuvenate the crappy O’s, he’s afraid of failure. It’s time to play the waiting game with our prospects already here, I guess.
by PurpleNorangeNbeer on May 5, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
and it takes two to tango
other GM’s dont want to take that big a risk of looking bad either.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 6, 2010 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I remember you using this point when the O's signed Gonzalez.
It is a fair point but I think the money issue is bigger than you make it out to be here. You use Beckett and Ramirez as an example but the Red Sox had to take on Lowell to get that deal done. It worked out for them since Lowell surprised everyone, bit still.
I don’t know about the rest of the top of my head, l’d have to look it up. I agree the Yankees have done well in developing the likes of Hughes, Cano, etc., but I also think it’s easier to give up a ton of prospects when you know that if the player you’re trading for doesn’t last you have the money to buy back any talent you lost.
Sometimes I just want to talk about beer, blowjobs and baseball, y’know? -2632
by Stacey on May 5, 2010 6:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The money is a bigger issue than I let on
But this goes to another point you’ve heard me make before: the Orioles don’t spend their money correctly. Frankly, I think the O’s should be spending money only to have stars (whether to the stars directly or to take on contracts like Lowell to obtain stars). When you aren’t spending the $4 million for the difference between Atkins and Hughes and the $12 million on the difference between Gonzalez and Simon, you have more money to spend on obtaining players who really make a difference.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I agree but it's not always so simple
I agree in theory, but these guys are running a business and also have to take into account what is going to bring people to the park, hold fan interest, etc. It’s hard to think that way about Atkins and Gonzalez since they’re both ineffective, but for example Miguel Tejada and Kevin Millwood. Having those two guys around for one year at a total price of $15M isn’t going to take the Orioles to the playoffs even though it might get them a few more wins this year. But those guys got people talking about this team, they provide the fans with some excitement and the feeling that the Orioles are doing something to win. You can’t totally write that off.
Sometimes I just want to talk about beer, blowjobs and baseball, y’know? -2632
I agree with that in theory
But tell me, how is the business side of the Orioles going? Fans filling the seats to see Millwood and Tejada?
I think the fans are pretty savvy. Sure, we’re more informed than many if not most fans, but I don’t see anyone thinking that Millwood or Tejada are difference makers in the comments at the Sun or at Roch’s. On the other hand, those people were really excited about Wieters and Matusz.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I sort of agree
At least, I used to be a big believer in pay for the all star, get replacement level on the cheap (assuming your organization could actually develop replacement level). I would point to the terrible forays into free agency that the Orioles made for basically a decade (nay Tejada) as proof. However, in fairness, a good percentage of those big contracts have also been pretty an iteration of catastrophic too. I mean, just to name a few: Dreifort, Giambi, Hampton, Vernon Wells, Zito, Alfonso Soriano, Todd Helton, etc. And sometimes those midterm contracts end up being awful (see basically the Orioles of the 2000s) or awesome (Mark Buerhle).
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on May 5, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
ok so..
Phil Hughes is in his 4th year, has played on a World Series quality team his entire career and his career record is 16-10 with a 3.89 ERA. This is skewed from the setup man position he played last year. Montero is a prospect. A highly regarded one yes, but he’s still a long ways away. The Yankees put a lot of money and time into international scouting. That’s where the LIMITED amount of their player development has come from. The Yankees have produced 1 all-star in their system since Jeter/posada/rivera etc came up. ONE. They can afford to trade for these guys because they can sign them to contracts. Everyone knows no one is going to pay them more than the Yankees, no reason not to re-sign. The Yankees have won because they spend money. I am probably wrong here but I think that only ONE of the “key additions through trades” you provided up top even won a world series and I would hardly say that Swisher carried that team. In fact, the year prior to the trade Swisher batted .219, 24hr— hardly a steal and definitely not for anywhere near top tier prospects.
IIRC, the Beckett trade happened because the Red Sox were willing to take on Lowell’s salary. That’s half of what Florida was really after in that trade.
don't forget petite.
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
ehhh
Alfonso Soriano says hi.
Nick Johnson / Juan Rivera are quality players in their own right as well, as was Chien-Ming Wang before that unfortunate injury.
no
he was signed out of college in Taiwan. he’s not Japanese in case you havn’t notice
Signed out of Taiwan at age 19. Spent 4 seasons in the minors.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on May 5, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not really sure i believe in this
ever since the 4 most famous yankees came up back in the mid 90’s, that farm system has produced…next to nothing. joba is a head case and if he’s truly the heir to mariano then the yanks are screwed. phil hughes is decent, but he’s not stud.
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
ehh
Sorry James but I have to agree with Daniel. The arguments you’ve made are marginal at best and the reason the Yankees have won has nothing to do with trading or player development. It’s all based on money man. In 16 years, they haven’t produced 1 all-star. They have relied on spend, spend and spend some more. The significant trades the Yankees have made that impacted their world series outcome were made in 92 and 97. In 1997, they traded MIlton, Mays and Guzman for Knoblauch in a deal they were horribly ripped off on in the end. And 1992, it was Roberto Kelly for Paul O’neill. Those were the trades that impacted a World Series and winning, not the ones you wrote about.
Sorry to dash your hopes man, but money is money and that is the ONLY reason they have won and been competitive. Without money, their front office is garbage.
That's not the point
The point James is trying to make is, Cashman traded those prospects for MLB players that helped the Yankees win. Once they left the Yankees, their future success is irrelevant to the Yankees – they’re already been turned into other assets that have proven to have worth.
"Oh, and Joe? If Brian hits any of your delicate millionaires, know that he meant it." - Stacey
swisher? really? he batted like .220 last year
aaron boone? a career .260 hitter? sure he had that one shot but i mean come on, even a broken clock is right twice a day. and let’s face it, randy johnson wasn’t his best as a yankee. he was good in 05, but the wins in 06 are misleading, he had a pretty miserable year by randy’s standards. not much need be said for kevin brown, he was pretty much a disaster in new york. kinda like javier vasquez this season.
my point is that even though it may seem like this helps, a very large part of their winning comes from outspending everyone. big name free agents: sabathia, burnett, a-rod, teixera, granderson, damon, etc. the free agent market is clearly where they do their most damage.
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Granderson and Arod were acquired through trades.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on May 5, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
They traded a completely legit prospect in Austin Jackson
and he’s been quite successful to this point. They also lost Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke. It’s not like Granderson was handed to them for nothing.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
well we won't know that until we get out of the whole small sample size thing for jackson
who knows? maybe he cools off and hits .260 this year or gets hurt? same goes for kennedy and coke.
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
But that wasn't the point of the article
The point is that they turned prospects into proven MLB players in trades, not that those prospects turned into stars.
My point was that Granderson was not a straight salary dump in any way. They got a highly regarded prospect in return.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
It doesn't matter how Jackson turns out
That’s the point. His MLB career is irrelevant. He and another prospect were turned into Curtis Granderson. Therefore, the NYY’s development of him as a prospect is uin the plus column for the Yankees. He served his purpose – he allowed NYY to get a player they wanted.
"Oh, and Joe? If Brian hits any of your delicate millionaires, know that he meant it." - Stacey
Detroit only traded him cause they couldn't afford him
Kennedy was considered to be washed up because he couldn’t handle NY. Coke wasn’t exactly a lights out reliever, idk how you think he had that much value.
I didnt say he had much value
All I said was that Jackson is/was a legit prospect and they also lost Coke and Kennedy.
idk how you think I stated that he had that much value
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
I wasn't saying you did
I’m just lookin at the responses from a POV of the original argument.
Granderson is actually signed to a reasonable contract
through 2013 with a club option for 2013. The Tigers could have afforded it.
Sometimes I just want to talk about beer, blowjobs and baseball, y’know? -2632
They took the money they freed up by trading him
and gave Cordero 2/14 and signed Damon too.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on May 6, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah the idea was the same
and at the time, alfonso soriano wasn’t exactly a prospect.
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Swisher had a great year last year
He had an OPS of .869. He had a wOBA of .375 and a WAR of 3.6.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
true, last season was good for him
and i see your point for the whole write up which was obviously presented well, but i still think they hit the hardest in FA and blockbuster trades
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
Obviously, of course, this has not been the sum total of how the Yankees have succeeded. But the point is more along the lines of it doesn’t take a staggering cost in prospects to trade for quality players. You can hold on to your prospects too long, and end up seeing their value plummet. The goal needs to be to sell high, and often the “high” point in a prospect’s value is while he’s a prospect.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Swisher had an OPS of 870 last year - OPS+ of 129.
He had a great year. The best year of his career actually.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Nick Swisher
had two seasons in the high 3 WAR in 06/07 , and was still in his 20s and basically did most things the same other than hit .220 in Chicago, it doesn’t take much of a analysist to guess that he’s a huge come back candidate, and he wasn’t signed for much, i’m pretty sure that unless your the Marlins or Pirates, any other of the MLB teams could have had him.
he was part of the etc
I think that’s all 4 of them though. They have had a terrible farm system for years, development production wise. The little talent they do get is all international. I mean what else is there? Guzman? May? ummm someone help?
AND, to be honest, Rivera wasn’t even valued by the organization all the way coming up. They thought he was nothing more than a situational middle reliever.
i thought mo was originally an OF prospect.
but it’s true, their farm system is abysmal. unless cano keeps hitting like he’s hitting, they will have produced 0 offensive players of note in the past 15 years.
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
nope pitching all the way…and if you really wanna talk about how bad they manage things, they left him unprotected for the exp draft… money ftw
says on wikipedia that at the VERY beginning he was a SS
but the yankees liked the fact that with no formal training he could pound the zone at 85-87 MPH consistently.
so we’re both kind of wrong…
"Being an Orioles fan is like having Erectile Dysfunction"
"harden the fuck up mike gonzalez."
The Signing Bonus: We're back in business.
by danielreese05 on May 5, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
They originally had him as a SP
though that happens quite a bit.
"You accept mediocrity and you get mediocrity." - Adam Jones, Son!
No offense to you btw...
I’ve been in this post a lot but I really hate any argument about the Yankees a front office. They’ve won because they outspend people. There’s no other argument that anyone can make that really holds up. It’s blatant and no one cares anymore.
Soon they will make a mockery of the draft too. You will see top-5 picks falling to the high 20s because they will state some absurdly outrageous contract demand knowing only the Yanks will pay. Then, and only then (once again because of money), will they have an effective farm system.
Players want to play in New York. They contend every year, who doesn’t wany to play for a winner. Plus its the media capitol of the world. A guy can make 10 million a year on his contract plus how many millions more on indorsements. Pride, I know if I worked at a McDonalds I would care alot less about my job than if I worked at a 5 star establishment.
dont forget
Their strike zones are bigger for pitchers and smaller for batters. I think it’s magic.
by Philly O's on May 5, 2010 10:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Guys who you acquire by trade...
….have no choice about where they play.
But again, this is not an argument about how the Yankees are awesome. It is about how they acquire good players for their prospects.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
unless there is a clause
I’m sure the yankees are never on the “NO” teams and well we know where the O’s are. But hey Millwood had the OK!
by Philly O's on May 5, 2010 10:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Perhaps but you're argument is that they use their prospects for value
But in reality they get very little to no real value most of the time… if you make 15 “big” trades over 10 years and you get some decent return but no WS, which is their standard, then the trade was of no consequence.
Without spending all that money, the Yankees would be no better than we are now. We ruined our farm system with overuse of young arms (just look at some of the IP by our young pitchers in the late 90s early 2ks in the minors).
i agree to a point
The point being that the trades that NY makes are for 1 or 2 players a year to further enhance their already competitive team. So yes those trades work out well. The problem is the O’s would have to trade all 4 affiliates just to fill a lineup that would compete with the yankees. Not to mention those players would have to have the O’s as an option if there is a clause in their contract. The yankees just have more freedom to trade because they can always buy a quality replacement at the end of the season if its a bust.
by Philly O's on May 5, 2010 10:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
To a degree
Look, this only works at all if you have a good core – you can’t trade from the position of the Pirates and build a contender. But that’s the point – if we are who we think we are as an organization, the time to make these moves is approaching fast. Is Wieters a soon to be elite talent? Is Matusz? Is Markakis a top young right fielder who we have locked up for years at an affordable price? Is Roberts (if he ever plays again) still one of the top 5 second basemen in the game?
I see the question as being how do we complement our core which we don’t plan on changing over the next four-five years.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
you would think FA
But why they are not pulling the trigger is beyond me?
by Philly O's on May 5, 2010 11:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, who is there on the market?
Last offseason, was there a single impact free agent available besides Matt Holliday (and I argued pretty strongly for the O’s pursuing him)? Who is there this coming offseason besides Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth? Even if we look to 2012 the pickings are slim: Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Beltran. Assuming they make it to free agency and are still stars.
In the evolving baseball marketplace, there simply aren’t elite talents who are going to be available very often on the free agent market. Meanwhile, with every season, this core gets older and more expensive and our window with it becomes shorter. And worse still, to sign elite free agents, you still end up giving up a prospect in a first or second round pick.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Pena will be 32 next year...
….and has posted continually declining numbers since his breakout in 2007. While his .374 wOBA the last two years is nice, it wasn’t among the top 30 in the game and comes from first base, where he ranked only 15th. A declining player whose bat is only better than half the qualifiers at his position isn’t going to overtake the Yankees and Red Sox, IMO.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I'd still love to have him
He’s prolly got 3-4 yrs left of 30+HR power, and hes a GG 1st basemen.
He's got a career UZR/150 of -2.6
Just sayin’.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Well that's supposedly the thing were doing
Draft the arms and rebuild teh whole thing with tons of trade pieces. The problem is we have no bullpen so we have to use guys that would normally b #5 starters as bullpen arms. This domino effect drains our system and allows us very little room for error.
My biggest counter to your argument, aside from the NY money though, is Tampa. They aren’t trading their prospects for veterans and they are winning. They are the polar opposite of NY, they trade vets for prospects.
Well, Tampa was one of my examples...
…with the Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal. Young was once the #1 prospect in the game.
But also, bear in mind the combination of luck/ineptitude that it took for Tampa. Prior to 2009 they had the 1st overall pick twice and the third pick the year before that. They lucked into acquiring Scott Kazmir for nothing, and Ben Zobrist for half a year of Aubrey Huff. Carlos Pena was a non-tender.
You can’t count on those kind of breaks.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Minny got rid of Garza for a reason
They thought he was a major headcase and would never progress
Which is funny
because that describes Delmon Young instead, major headcase that would never progress
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 6, 2010 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions
One point
I think it’s a lot easier to trade your prospects for proven (expensive) major league talent when you’re consistently winning and have a shitload of money to spend in the free agent market if the trades don’t work out. If the O’s were to trade Tillman or Arrieta right now, there would be absurd pressure (media and fan base) for whatever they got in return to be absolutely incredible. There would also be a ton of financial pressure because whatever they get in return would obviously be much more expensive than what the prospects are going to cost combined (and quadrupled) over the next 6 years, and if they don’t turn out well the O’s don’t really have the budget to make free agent splashes to make up for it.
So yeah, sure the Yanks have done a good job turning prospects into major league talent, but it’s much easier to do from their position as perennial winners with a bottomless checking account than it would be for the O’s.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
which is really all I've been saying
None of those players were really impact players that made the team a WS contender. The huge FA signings were though. The only trades they made that did bring in those sort of guys (i.e. arod) cost major league proven talent and were salary dumps by the other team.
One other thing about most of these trades
The NY ones almost always involve some amount of money going to the other team.
Well
Some of the reasonablly useful players they developed in the last decade (to different degrees of course)
Catcher
Navarro
Infielders
Cano, Soriano, Nick Johnson
Outfielders
Juan Rivera, Marcus Thames, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner .
SP
Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes
RP
plenty here, Chamberlain (I given up guessing how he’ll turn out, but he’s something for sure) , Tyler Clippard, Ramon Ramirez, and basically half their bullpen in the last couple of years, they done a nice job of utilizing the revolving door tactics with relievers really.
It’s not a GREAT track record of developing player, but relative to their draft position it’s pretty good.
how many of those guys were actually drafted though?
Novarro – amateur free agent
Cano – amateur free agent
Soriano – purchased from Japan
Rivera – amateur free agent
Cabrera – amateur free agent
Wang – amateur free agent
Ramon Martinez – really not developed by the Yanks at all and wasn’t a draft pick
So really it still comes down to money in my opinion.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
oh come on
their average draft position during this span was like 28, if they managed to draft better than a lot of the bad teams that have high draft picks something is seriously wrong, in any given draft they’re usually about 5 really good can’t miss guys up front. and then some 15 guys that turned out well scattered in the rest of the draft, and maybe some 30 guys who have some uses also scattered
you can't trade in teh ML draft
Now, herein lies teh way the top money teams can now tear up the draft. Let’s say you have Jimbo Turner who’s a lights out pitcher but considered unsignable. pick 28 comes around, you pick him and throw him a 6-8mil bonus… think he’s still unsignable?
like who?
Almost everybody you named was NOT a draft pick.
Nick Johnson and Marcus Thames were drafted in 1996. Hughes and Chamberlain were both first round picks. Who else is there to get excited about?
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Off the top of my head some useful players drafted in the past couple years-
Either with the big league team, on the cusp in AAA or traded for proven mlb players.
Hughes
Chamberlain
Kennedy
Austin Jackson
Phil Coke
Mike Dunn
Brett Gardner
David Robertson
Mark Melancon
Obviously none of them are superstars but when paired with cheap unheralded signings like Alfredo Aceves, Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervell they have a ton of value by being dirt cheap and solid role players.
I’m not saying the Yanks are completely home grown and they are helped out more than any other team by the FA market, but Cash has capably filled holes with guys from the farm system.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on May 6, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right
I’m not saying you may not develop prospects. I’m saying you haven;t developed any sort of WS talent the past 15 years ish. Every impact player ( I guess minus Cano) they have comes from FA signings once you get inside that window. The yankees won 0 world series with the trades that were mentioned above for that talent.
I think World Series won is a poor standard
They made the playoffs every year but one in that period. In every season in that period, they contended into September.
On some level, that’s the best you can hope for; beyond that, luck and randomness take over. A five or seven game series simply isn’t a true measure of which team is better.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
and who has?
The Phillies? is Howard / Utley / Rollins / Hamels /Madson / Victorino (actually a Dodgers prospect and IIRC never played in the phillies minor system at all) really better than the Jeters / Posadas? so once they’re signed big moneys they don’t count? well then Utley doesn’t count either then, since he already signed big extention well before 08.
The Red Sox? hahahahah, they devleoped a WS caliber talent alright, except that he’s playing in Miami , (though to be fair Lester / Pedroia / Youkilis / Papalbon are obviously very good players)
The Cards? aside from Pujols, name one guy on theri winning team that they drafted, who was good, and has been good since. (no, Wainright is not the right answer)
the White Sox? same exercise, except this time their best developed player isn’t nearly as good , it’s Mark Buerhle (who’s good of course in his own right)
the Red Sox 04? talk about a all mercenary team there.
of course money matters, you also fail to note that developing 4 guys, 2 are obvious HOF, 2 are borderline and probably will get a reasonable amount of votes, within the span of some 5 years (not to meantion Bernie Williams just a few years before that. is HIGHLY unlikely , they lucked out there by a LOT. if that’s the standard we’re going to be matching against, I’d wager none of the current best 4 home grown guys of any team will match it in their career context.
I think his point
was that the Jeters/Posadas were over 15 years ago now.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
hmm
OK, I’ll sorta buy your argument. But, there is a different standard in NY right? like not making it to the WS is considered a bad year for you guys. The original argument was that Cashman has built teams based on trading high for high return. The high return you guys got really wasn’t all that high. Most of those guys didn’t even factor into you guys even getting a ring. THAT is your standard, not ours or most other teams. If you want to go for that argument, Epstein has made much more critical high end high return trades than Cashman has since they’ve been working.
Now if we’re talking about being a playoff team, the argument still doesn’t stand. The yankees have spent gobs of money on other ppls FA to make them a contender. I’ll sorta give you Chien, but give me another quality SP they have produced (didn’t buy) since Petitte? As I stated earlier, the Yankees pour most of their money into the international market. A place where it IS about money and NOT about where you are drafting.
I would argue that Posada is a HOF’r. Petitte may not be based on a marginal HOF career combined with the whole PED thing. Looking at the overall team though, you can’t tell me that the amount of stupidly absurd contracts you give for SUPPORT players doesn’t factor in.
Pettite:
Black Ink Pitching – 10 (240), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink Pitching – 114 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor Pitching – 118 (72), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Pitching – 38 (78), Average HOFer ≈ 50
Posada:
Gray Ink Batting – 17 (1098), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting – 112 (127), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting – 42 (138), Average HOFer ≈ 50
But back to my original thing. It’s not that you haven’t produced some talent. It’s that most of your top-tier talent was 15 years ago and that wasn’t under cashman. So he has prospered from someone else’s moves and supplemented with big money/ marginal moves based solely on cash strapped organizations looking to unload money and get something in return. Either way, the fact of the matter is, he is a soso GM who has benefited greatly from teh previous admin + big pockets.
Sure
He’s done a great job filling holes and trading pieces, but like I said before it’s MUCH easier to find guys from your system to sprinkle in here and there when you sign all of the best free agents every year. It’s an entirely different situation than we are in. Nick Markakis was our biggest position prospect to come up in years (similar to Cano), but instead of letting him hit 7th or 8th for 4-5 years while he came into his own he almost immediately became our 3 hitters because we had nobody else. In some ways it’s much easier to develop talent when you really don’t need it.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
And as I keep arguing, we need to be spending money here too
The most expensive amateur free agents aren’t out of our price range. They are cheaper than the shitting vets we’re on the verge of releasing in some cases. They are cheap enough that teams like the A’s and Twins have signed the most expensive ones in recent years, not the Yankees.
We can’t sit back and spend what money we have like idiots and bitch that other richer teams have the brains to spend their ducats wisely.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
That's not a WS contending team
It’s not even a .500 team. They didn’t develop Chien, he was bought from Taiwan.
what's your definition of bought?
he signed at 19, never played a day in any other professional league, spend 4+ seasons in hte minors, if he was bought, then so’s every other amature free agent in baseball
they won a bidding war for him
That is being bought
as if
you don’t bid on other amature free agents? if your thinking about posting system, then no, he wasn’t posted.
Sure - all amateur free agents are bought.
That’s why the Yankees get so many good ones. Not sure what the confusion is about.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
How about the guy who was like 50 when they "signed him as an amateur FA"?
Can’t think of his name atm, had a bit to drink…
Roger Clemens!
Wait, no. He was like 30 something.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on May 6, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
yes
the difference here lies of course, that Wang was obviously NOT a MLB ready player when he signed, and he didn’t sign for MLB player like money , (see Matsuzaka). if spending 19-24 in the minors isn’t developed, then only about half the major leaguers today were developed by any team at all.
According to BA, here's teh yankees top prospect each of past 10 years
2000 David Parrish, c Out of baseball
2001 John Ford-Griffin, of Cubs
2002 Brandon Weeden, rhp (2nd) Out of baseball
2003 Eric Duncan, 3b Yankees
2004 Phil Hughes, rhp Yankees
2005 C.J. Henry, ss Out of baseball
2006 Ian Kennedy, rhp Diamondbacks
2007 Andrew Brackman, rhp Yankees
2008 *Gerrit Cole, rhp UCLA
2009 Slade Heathcott, of Yankees
That is a list of first round picks.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on May 6, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh
Lets see how the MacSuccess plan works out first.
b dot o, but i know that i flow rack them up knock them down dominos
A bunch of Crapola
Todays baseball hardly resembles the baseball of my youth.There is only loyalty to the almighty dollar,the yankees open check book,is killing the game and heres why.Other teams develop young players,they become free agents and end up with the pinstripes because they’ll make more money.The present pitching staff of all stars is a sad commentary of hot building a staff within your own organization but stealing players.I seldom watch games anymore,it lacks from the game I once loved,the players are lazy for the most part,no respect for the history of the game.Players that have tested poistive for roids,play on collectin a big check,its a joke and someday the yankees will be playing themselves because they’ll have the best team money can by!
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