FanPost

If the O's start winning, is our hope for the 1st pick gone?

This is a serious question. All through this dismal season the one positive for me was that we were going to get the 1st pick. I don't know much about who's available (James F, you can help me out), but I think our best bet at number one -- assuming we still have it -- is Anthony Rendon. Correct me if I'm wrong. I thought I'd look at project wins and losses and figure out what we have to do to keep our dreams alive.

I thought I'd look at my Yahoo sports page to start off. I've only really glanced at those accuscore playoff predictions in the past, but I figured they might give me some insight. The most recent ratings are from July 6th. Here is the link:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-accuscoreplayoffforecast070610

In the American League section, the O's are in a tie for last place with the Indians, with 0.0% playoff chances across the board. Let's put aside the depressing thought for a moment -- we all know by now we're not going to the playoffs. Now for some reason I decided to compare the Orioles record with the Indians. It was just a hunch that the two records could matter. I will look at the National League later, so don't forget this accuscore thing quite yet.

The Orioles record is 27-59. Yeah, that's pretty bad. The Indians record is 34-53. Not so great either. I'm not really sure how this works, and my theory is probably totally off-base, but I've searched all over the internet, and I've settling on the Pythagorean formula for figuring out the rest of a team's season, or what they're win-loss record is most likely going to look like. According to Baseball Prospectus, well...I'll show you. The columns that say W1 and L1 are the wins and losses the O's are likely to get the rest of the season. Add that to the current record, and you get the rest of the season:

Screenshot20100711at511_medium

via img691.imageshack.us

Look at the Orioles. They are on pace for 54-117. Is that the worst ever? I went to find out -- just for fun. Before the expansion of the National and American leagues in 1961 and the subsequent implementation of a 162 game season (boy was that a mouthful), that distinguished honor was held by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who had a record of 20-134. That's a winning percentage of .130! But after that, actually following the expansion, you guys might know who holds the record for most losses in a season. It's the 1962 New York Mets. Let's be fair: they were an expansion team, so we can't be too hard on them. After searching the internet for a short time, I stumbled on a nauseating blog post by a Yankees fan...http://unclemikesmusings.blogspot.com/2010/03/what-was-worst-baseball-team-ever.html <-- read at your own risk. Please trust me on that. 

Anyway, let's get back to the original point, shall we? I thought I'd take a look at the Indians 2010 record, and what they are on pace for. 

 

Screenshot20100711at532_medium

via img189.imageshack.us

They're on pace for a record of 69-102. That's a pretty big difference, isn't it? So, really, it's going to be pretty hard to beat the Orioles dismal record. But hold on, I'm not finished. We still have to check out what's going on with the National League right now. Let's turn back to accuscore. I may use this later, I may not -- we'll see. But for now, I suggest we take a look. There's another tie for the worst playoff chances, which are, um, zero. The Astros and Pirates are fighting it out. Oh, yes, I had to refer back to Baseball Prospectus for their projected win-loss records. The Astros have a ways to go before they reach Orioles-bad. That's 65-108. But wait, the Pirates -- oh, they might be trouble. Their projected record is 53-118 -- a clear threat to our bid for #1. Here's the screenshot in case you're interested:

Screenshot20100711at601_medium

via img227.imageshack.us

But let's take a chill pill and have a little reality check: these projections aren't perfect.

I thought of throwing away the accuscore altogether, but I decided to be a downer and leave it in. I apologize sincerely for the pain I have caused you. Anyway, as it stands, the pesky Pirates are very pesky -- duly noted. Even if there is reason to be alarmed, these projections may not come true. Just because we've won three games in a row doesn't change the fact that we, well, suck. Three games in a row may look like a lot after all we've been through as fans, but I honestly don't see this team improving much more than these projections. We can only pray for the Pirates to go on a major tear. It can happen, right?

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

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