Monday Bird Droppings
by duck on Jul 19, 2010 7:53 AM EDT
in Open Threads
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PrintRecaps of yesterday's loss can be found at orioles.com, baltimoresun.com, MASNsports (with post-game Juan Samuel video), and Toronto Sun.
Scott expected to return to lineup on Monday | orioles.com: News
Luke Scott has somehow endured his drive back from Florida, and will be in the lineup tonight. Expect Frank Mata to get the bus ticket to Norfolk.
Orioles Insider: Some facts, opinions after O’s swept by Jays
"I never, ever thought I’d say this but Luke Scott, right now, maybe the Orioles’ best defensive option in left field." Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 Baltimore Orioles, where Luke Scott is a defensive replacement.
Rays' Wade Davis eager to face Orioles - Tampa Bay Online
"Wade Davis said he can't wait for tonight when he makes his first start of the second half against the Orioles in Baltimore, a city that has been very good to the rookie." Just in case your Monday didn't suck enough already.
Frank Who? - 2131 And Beyond
A little history lesson on the soon-to-be-demoted Frank Mata.
Demoting Matusz not an option - MASNsports.com
"Interim manager Juan Samuel told reporters after today's game that he's not thinking about optioning left-hander Brian Matusz to the minors. "Not at this point. Not in my mind," he said." Sure Brad Bergesen gets demoted, Chris Tillman gets demoted, but Brian Matusz? No, 'cause he's a PROSPECT.
Kevin Cowherd: Without new skipper, Orioles managing to regress - baltimoresun.com
Remember two months ago when we all thought it couldn't get any worse? Yeah, about that. It's getting worse.
All Nats All the Time: Rizzo doesn't like offers for Dunn -- so far
"A baseball source familiar with the Nationals situation doesn't think they will trade first baseman Adam Dunn before the non-waiver trade deadline. So far, according to the source, general manager Mike Rizzo doesn't like the offers for Dunn." Andy MacPhail, here' s your chance. And get that extension signed, too!
IN THE MINORS
Prospect Britton making push to join O's | orioles.com
"Orioles prospect Zach Britton continues to make a push for Baltimore, adding more competition to an already-crowded O's rotation that is expected get back veteran Kevin Millwood as soon as Wednesday." Because we haven't rushed enough young pitchers in the past two seasons.
Norfolk lost in a shut-out as they collected just two hits while giving up just one run in the loss.
Bowie was overpowered in a 4-2 loss as Richmond RHP Craig Westcott tossed a gem, holding Bowie to just three hits through 7.0 innings.
Frederick had the day off.
Delmarva lost 9-8 as Matt Hobgood was lit up for 6 ER (on just 4 hits) in just 3.2 IP.
Aberdeen won 4-0 as RHP Bruno Sanchez carried a perfect game into the sixth inning on Sunday afternoon.
Bluefield lost 5-4 in 13 innings despite Jeremy Shelby going 3-for-6 with a double and a stolen base.
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Luke our best defensive LF?
Did Pie really look as bad this weekend as Zrebiec says? I didn’t get to watch much.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
On Sunday, yes.
He looked lost on multiple plays.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget...
Saturday too. He def. looked like he is having trouble judging the depth off the bat.
by TerroristFistJab on Jul 19, 2010 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I was there on Saturday, too.
But left field was my blind spot so I had no clue.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Tillman is also a PROSPECT,
but he’s 2 years younger than Matusz, which is what i think the issue comes down to. Also, as far as rushing young pitchers, I don’t think any of them were rushed. Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, and Hernandez all completely dominated minor league competition. They’re not going to learn anything if they are dominating their competition, so promote them until they get a challenge.
You can't "dominate" minor league competition...
…without ever spending a day in AAA.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
ok fine, send Matusz down to AAA and let him dominate for 3-4 starts,
at least it should get his confidence back. Every scout I’ve ever heard from has said that his stuff and his pitchability would dominate the minors and that he could’ve skipped them altogether ala Mike Minor. It’s not going to prove anything, but it should at least help his confidence, so I would be fine with it if they sent him down for a few starts.
Well, Mike Minor is still in the minors
You’re thinking of Mike Leake.
I don’t know where this idea comes from. Most minor league evaluators, including Sickels, believe strongly in the importance of AA and AAA. At this point, meanwhile, it is obvious that the Orioles have a flawed scouting process.
I don’t care if they demote him or not at this point, and I don’t think it is mainly a question of confidence. But I think that it is objectively true that Matusz was rushed, and I still can’t understand what the purpose of doing so was.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I seem to remember (with utter horror) the likes of Adam Eaton and RIch Hill polluting our roster last year.
So that is probably why they brought Matusz up last year. There’s only so much of that scat-show that one can tolerate.
Of course I’m being a smartass, and I agree that Matusz should have made a stop in AAA before coming up to the bigs last year. So let me post a question, with our pitchers doing so well in the minors, and then struggling in the majors, how much of this could be attributable to Kranitz? Or is it just the O’s bad luck that they may have drafted / acquired a bunch of AAAA pitchers?
"This is the Nineties, Bubba, and there is no such thing as Paranoia. It's all true."~Hunter S. Thompson
by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 19, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking this too
how much of this could be attributable to Kranitz?
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think it's AAAA players, these are universally recognized talents,
the Radhames Liz’s and Garret Olson’s were great in the minors, but were mostly thought of as AAAA players in the scouting community because they had flaws. I don’t know who to blame though, it might be Kranitz, they might be getting rushed, I don’t think anyone really knows, but all of our prospects are struggling at the major league level, which seems to me like they must be connected somehow.
I don’t think it’s AAAA players, these are universally recognized talents, the Radhames Liz’s and Garret Olson’s were great in the minors,
I don’t think their MLE’s were sterling either so saber people didn’t love him either. He had a 5.91 ERA ZiPS projection for 2008. And a 5.08 ERA projection for 2007.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Well, Matusz came up when Bergy went down...
….so his case had nothing to do with the scat (and we’re going to get hits from such awful google searches now).
That said, to a degree, we’re just making too much of this. I don’t know how to evaluate Kranitz and the job he does. But I think that a lot of this needed to be expected. Even Strasburg would get shelled sometimes in the AL East at this point in his career. On top of that, we’ve had disarray in management, a poor performance from our training and medical staff, and a lousy defense behind our pitchers.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
A lot of this needed to be expected, yes
absolutely. Prospects rarely just come up and dominate. There are ALWAYS bumps along the way.
And yet, Matusz was still rushed. And it has a very strong appearance of Zach Britton getting the rush-job, too. Which means, if anything, the Orioles don’t think they made a mistake with Matusz.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
I agree with the first half of this,
I don’t think Matusz was rushed, and even if he was, I don’t think it’s fair to say that Britton will be also. They’re completely different pitchers, you can’t evaluate one with respect to the other, you have to be able to evaluate each prospect individually.
To clarify
if you put any emphasis on development in the minor leagues at all, then both of these guys are being rushed. Matusz had 8 starts in the upper minors, none at AAA. Britton has had 17 starts in the upper minors, 3 in AAA (so far). This is not a normal development pattern, and I absolutely believe that it has put them in a position that is less than ideal in terms of succeeding and developing. What are the minor leagues there for, if all you have to do is have 8 good starts before you get out of them?
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
I don't think thats true at all,
I think there are players that don’t need the development time. I think they are very rare, but I think that they exist and can be pushed and challenged. I think Matusz and Wieters were clearly those type of players, and I think Britton could be. I think Arrieta shouldve had more time, because his control issues are legitimate concerns, Matusz, and Wieters had nothing left to prove.
So those players are really rare
and we had three of them at the same time? And what about Josh Bell? Or Jason Berken, who got three or so AAA starts? Or Bergesen? There’s a lot of evidence that suggests that the Orioles like to get their prospects through the upper levels – the most important levels – of the minors as fast as possible as a rule.
I will grant you that if Matusz doesn’t struggle this much, nobody’s talking about it. And I will also grant that a lot of his struggles are normal developmental things. But I still hold that these guys haven’t been put in the best possible position for success. That doesn’t mean they’ve been stunted (necessarily) or that they won’t succeed…but the Orioles haven’t done them any favors, that’s for sure.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
did you actually read what i said?
I said Bell is being rushed and Berken was thrown to the wolves last year. And I said Matusz and Wieters were, but how do you get 3 from that? Give it time and stop freaking out people.
I'm not freaking out
I’m just annoyed at a pattern I see. But, like I said, I still think these guys will succeed, just that it will be partially in spite of the Orioles’ developmental system.
On the other hand, I don’t have access to the information they do…so it’s hard to criticize them too much. I didn’t see Matusz at all when he was in the minor leagues, and it’s absolutely possible that he simply wasn’t going to develop at all down there (though, he sure didn’t get tested against the IL, so…).
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
I'm not saying that the organization hasn't rushed players
just that Matusz, Wieters, Tillman weren’t rushed and that saying since one player was rushed, they all must have been rushed is stupid.
Britton was the third, not Tillman
I don’t really have a problem with how they’ve handled Tillman, outside of the feeling I get that one bad start and he gets sent back down.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
if you put any emphasis on development in the minor leagues at all, then both of these guys are being rushed. Matusz had 8 starts in the upper minors, none at AAA. Britton has had 17 starts in the upper minors, 3 in AAA (so far). This is not a normal development pattern, and I absolutely believe that it has put them in a position that is less than ideal in terms of succeeding and developing. What are the minor leagues there for, if all you have to do is have 8 good starts before you get out of them?
I also want to say that I notice I see a lot of emphasis on number of start to determine prospect readiness. I don’t want to discount the number of starts, but I disagree with this notion that prospects need X number of starts at X level. The development of the pitcher is just as important. After 8 starts, Matusz’s repertoire was already developed. IMO, he didn’t need any additional starts in AA or AAA. His stuff was ready to go. Just because he only had 8 starts doesn’t mean he wasn’t developed.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
I will certainly allow for it
I can’t say for certain that Matusz would have been helped by staying in AA or even by going to AAA…but certainly nobody can say that he wasn’t hurt by avoiding AAA, either. We’re all just playing guessing games here.
My problem, to be perfectly clear, is that I am seeing a pattern of many (but not all) of the Orioles top prospects receiving an abnormal amount of time spent in the upper minors, and that that is possibly if not probably hindering their plan of building a home-grown championship level core.
As for Matusz specifically, I thought he should have seen some time at AAA. I don’t think he was awful yesterday because he didn’t, and overall I’m more or less satisfied with him on the year. He’s a young guy, young guy’s usually struggle. That’s fine.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Kranny
This year is such a shit show that there is no solid ground to base anything off of in terms of Kranny’s ability to coach the pitchers. Just like Millwood, I would assume Matusz is going out there trying to win the game by himself knowing he has no defense or offense. Of the current staff, kranny would be the last I would fire.
if Matusz's mindset
is that he needs to win the game on his own, then Krantiz has done a poor job. Matusz needs to know what he can control and what he can’t, and to let what he can’t control not bother him.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
by Andrew_G on Jul 19, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well
im sure between innings he and even jaun tell him this. But they can’t hold his hand on the mound.
I'm not claiming to know Matusz's mindset
in the dugout or on the mound. But if that is his mindset, then he hasn’t been prepared/coached correctly.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
still
a guy in the league 10 years will do the same thing time to time. doesn’t mean he wasn’t coached correctly. my point is this whole team from top to bottom is flawed and this puts a lot of pressure on the starting pitchers. If the O’s had a solid defense and were able to provide run support, than I would agree this would be due to Kranny not coaching correctly. this could all be moot in the next few weeks anyways.
Whoops, yeah, I meant Mike Leake,
and I think they have a flawed major league development program,not a flawed scouting program. Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, etc were universally recognized talents. It doesn’t matter if you prefer BA, BP, Sickels, Law, or whoever, they were all regarded as incredibly talented players. They just have all struggled at adjusting to the majors for some reason.
Also, for most players, AA and AAA are important levels for development, for rare other players-Strasburg, Heyward, Leake, etc, they don’t really help much, as those players need to learn and make adjustments at the major league level. Matusz was widely considered to be one of those players.
I think both are flawed
It isn’t a question as to the universally accepted fact of their talent. It is a question of our evaluators knowing who is ready for what and who isn’t. Yes, all of them are talented players. But our scouts also told us to sign Miggi and Atkins, I assume.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I think Miggi and Atkins are completely separate cases,
not to defend them, but I think they were both signed as stop gaps. Neither one of them were expected to be franchise saviors or anything like that, I think they were just hoping they would be productive and that they could trade them at the deadline for something useful. Obviously that didn’t work out great, Atkins failed horribly, and Miggi is only slightly better than useless right now, but I think that it’s still a good theory.
I just don’t understand when you think players are major league ready. Arrieta’s walk rate scared me, and they basically just threw Berken to the wolves last year, but every other player they’ve promoted seemed ML ready to me. Maybe they could’ve given Matusz a few AAA starts, I think it would’ve been pointless, but it probably wouldn’t have hurt him. However, from looking at their performance and their peripherals and listening to what the scouts were saying on BA and KLaw, Wieters, Tillman, and Matusz had nothing left to prove in the minors.
Sending one of them down for a few games to get confidence would be fine with me, but I think that is all it would accomplish.
I think with few exceptions....
…players should see a full year in AA and a full year in AAA. And I think that is even more true in circumstances like the last two seasons where wins and losses at the ML level don’t matter. I think you want your players to have to learn from each level on a consistent basis over a long term.
Anyone can look ready in a couple of starts. Armando Galarraga pitched a perfect game, and I can’t think of better proof – he’s a journeyman, who was back in AAA a few weeks later, because he’s just not that good and never has been.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Yeah, and Daniel Cabrera had one gem against the Yankees
that somehow let him earn a major league salary for 2 more seasons. I totally agree with sample sizes. I also think that most players should have plenty of development time in AA and AAA. Josh Bell, for instance, is not ML ready, and bringing him up to DH or sit on the bench is incredibly stupid. However, I think that Matusz had nothing left to prove in the minors. I think if Britton can dominate in AAA than he could be called up in late August or September and I would have no problem with it.
By late August or September he should have reached his innings cap for the year
I think most of us, myself included, were worried that the Warehouse would see him dominate in his first 2-3 starts and think ‘well, that’s all the proof we need. Let’s bring him up’. In my opinion, he should finish out the year in AAA with no consideration of being brought up this year.
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude
by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 19, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I think a legitimate sample size is 1-2 months.
And yeah, I know about the innings cap, I was just speaking hypothetically if he gets to that point.
To what purpose?
I don’t know how we can know that Matusz had nothing left to prove, but that’s in the past.
But what’s the point, exactly, of calling up Britton? It costs us a 40-man spot, starts his service time and arb clock, and won’t help us not be awful.
Why not give him one full season at least between AA and AAA? What’s the downside of waiting, and what is the upside of not waiting?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Especially when there is no need for them on the major league roster
The Orioles suck with or without those guys, so why not make sure?
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Most minor league evaluators, including Sickels, believe strongly in the importance of AA and AAA. At this point, meanwhile, it is obvious that the Orioles have a flawed scouting process.
That’s true of most prospects, but it’s not unusual for top of the top prospects, Matusz being one, to not need a whole year in the minors.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
not need a whole year in AAA to be more specific.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
It is pretty ususual, even for the top of the top
Where is the other top college arm from Matusz’s draft class right now? Well, Aaron Crow is struggling in AA. Of the other top college prospects from 2008, seven are in the majors right now – Pedro Alvarez, Gordon Beckham, Justin Smoak, Ike Davis, Andrew Cashner, Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth. Alvarez has scuffled, but he’s been up for a very short time. Beckham, like Matusz, looked very promising last year but regressed a lot this year. Smoak has struggled and was traded. Ike Davis looks promising so far but has had struggles too, and let’s see how it turns out longer term. Cashner, Perry and Schlereth are all bullpen arms; Perry has looked like the best of the lot, but even so, hard to know much about the quality of relievers in even a single full season. Only Matusz and Beckham didn’t have a full year in the minors, and of course, those are the two having the roughest 2010.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Crow isn't in Matusz's class
And those guys just need time. The Stephen Strasburgs of the world are pretty rare, not the rule. Some of them will turn into other stars.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
it's not unusual for the top of the top
who was the last top 10 prospect you can remember, having a full-year at AA and AAA? Although I admit I don’t know near enough as you about prospects, it seems to me that most of the players that have a full year at either stop do so because they struggle at that level and need to take time making adjustments.
Colby Rasmus
Full year in AA, 90 games in AAA, now one of the best centerfielders in the game.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
not trying to be a smart ass
and i don’t know who the cards had in the outfield before him but I am going to guess they had the time to let him play in the minors.
this is not an acceptable reason
for calling guys up, in my opinion.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker
The point, I think, is that everyone has time to let your prospects play in the minors. Promoting prospects due to need is a mistake and counterproductive, since like Matusz, they generally don’t produce what you need anyways.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
and i'm not saying it is.
The whole rebuilding process sucks and once this first group of legit prospects get established (and I would think they do), the next wave, machado et al, will have the time to spend in the minors. I just see it from both sides.
From looking at minorleaguesplits, I think that was more the fact
that he had some struggles at both levels and had to make adjustments. At AAA in 2008, he was horrible in April and May before he had and awesome June. In AA, he exploded in August after a couple terrible months in June and July. I could be wrong, but that would be my guess as to why the Cards were cautious while moving him.
Brandon Wood got plenty of time in the minors and still faltered
So whats your point?
I generally agree that our players need a little more time in AAA than they have been given, but Matusz looked really polished and had an FIP of 4.08 last year in his 44 IP (smallish population i know). I dont have a problem with him learning against major league pitching. Also I dont think “being yo-yo’ed” is as bad as it seems for a prospect. They spend their career on the road anyways. I dont think Tillman or Arrieta were rushed. Britton needs to spend at least 100 IP in AAA but if he’s in the big leagues next June i’m ok with that.
Josh Bell on the other hand, he’s not ready. Maybe they think he could use a little motivation to improve his hitting. But if it should help them monitor his progress better and get a feel if we need another stopgap next year at 3B.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 19, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
It is pretty ususual, even for the top of the top
So I decided to look at fangraphs most valuable players and see how long they spent in AAA. Look, I agree with John Sickels that most prospects need a full year in AAA. But I do think the top of the top guys do not need a full year in AAA and I think the evidence supports me.
Wainwright, Lester, and Ulbaldo all spent considerable time at AAA. Although it should be noted that Lester was recovering from cancer and Ulbaldo was sucking at AAA.
Zack Greinke – 28.2 IPs in AAA
Josh Johnson – no IPs in AAA
Tim Lincecum – 31 IPs in AAA
King Felix – 88 IPs in AAA
David Price – 52.1 IPs in AAA
Clayton Kershaw – no IPs in AAA.
Justin Verlander – no IPs in AAA
Jered Weaver – 77 IPs in AAA
Big Game James 67 IPs in AAA
Tommy Hanson – 66.1 IPs in AAA
Phil Hughes – 77 IPs in AAA
Ricky Romero – 47.2 IPs in AAA
We’ve treated Tillman and Matusz just fine. I even followed up with John about why he thought Tillman wasn’t handled properly and he said he should have been called up in late August when he called up on July 29th. So that’s one month difference or 4 – 5 starts. Hardly abuse.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
by birdman on Jul 19, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
thats a rec
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 19, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
and it should be noted
that the above AAA IPs would be even lower if teams weren’t delaying arbitration clocks.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
The flip side of that
Grienke struggled and then lost an entire season to social anxiety disorder. Johnson blew out his elbow and had Tommy John his second year. Felix had conditioning and arm problems that limited his utility for two seasons. Hughes missed chunks of two seasons due to injury and then had to spend another year working out of the pen to get to where he is today.
Now, you can’t attribute those things to how they were handled. But you can’t say that this didn’t have something to do with it either. And the result has been that a lot of the years of team control of these pitchers were lost – even though they still turned out to be very valuable starters, the teams who controlled them lost seasons of quality performances.
Obviously, this didn’t happen to half the names on that list (although we’ve seen Hanson and Romero for such a short period that who knows). But also obviously, this list only includes the top pitching prospects who worked out. All the top pitching prospects who never turned out to be as good as predicted are absent from this study, so you’re not getting a very clear picture of the downside.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
by James F on Jul 19, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Grienke struggled and then lost an entire season to social anxiety disorder. Johnson blew out his elbow and had Tommy John his second year. Felix had conditioning and arm problems that limited his utility for two seasons. Hughes missed chunks of two seasons due to injury and then had to spend another year working out of the pen to get to where he is today.
But you can’t say that this didn’t have something to do with it either.
Those injuries had nothing to do with pitching in the majors. If those innings would have came in the minors, those injuries would have still happened. These injuries would have happened to nature of pitching not whether if these pitches came at AAA or the ML level.
But also obviously, this list only includes the top pitching prospects who worked out.
Of course, that’s my point! The top prospects don’t need a whole year in AAA.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
fuck, butchered that last sentence
Those injuries happened because of the nature of pitching. Whether those pitches happened at the AAA or ML level wouldn’t have mattered.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
You don't know they had nothing to do with it
You simply have no idea. I don’t either.
You don’t understand – that list only includes the top prospects who weren’t busts. Show me a side by side study of that with the top pitching prospects who are busts, and it will have some credibility. Looking at only the successes corrupts the sample.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
You simply have no idea. I don’t either.
Whether at AAA or ML level, those innings would have happened. That’s for sure. What’s there to believe that somehow putting those guys longer at AAA would have prevented those injuries? It’s the act of pitching that causes those injuries not pitching at AAA versus pitching at ML.
You don’t understand – that list only includes the top prospects who weren’t busts. Show me a side by side study of that with the top pitching prospects who are busts, and it will have some credibility. Looking at only the successes corrupts the sample.
Well, you’re sort of changing the goal post on me. I’m sure there are top prospects who flamed out after skipping AAA. That may be due to skipping AAA. It may be due to something else. But the evidence above, show it’s plenty possible for success to happen.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Sure, but using success stories...
…to prove the possibility of success isn’t very reliable. That’s like saying that pitchers can still be great well into their 40s because Jamie Moyer has done it, or that you can win the lottery because so-and-so did.
Obviously, it CAN work. But are those cases the exception or the rule? What are the odds of it working? What is the smart choice? That strikes me as the more interesting question.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
true
But using the same logic, you have no basis for saying that the extra time in AAA is necessary. My bet would be that the difference wouldnt be too significant
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 19, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
…to prove the possibility of success isn’t very reliable. That’s like saying that pitchers can still be great well into their 40s because Jamie Moyer has done it, or that you can win the lottery because so-and-so did.
Jamie Moyer is the pretty much the only person to pitch well past 45. He’s clearly the exception. Besides, this isn’t a fair parallel. I NOTED the cases that don’t support my point (Lester, Ulbaldo, and Wainwright). I’m not cherry picking.
Obviously, it CAN work. But are those cases the exception or the rule? What are the odds of it working? What is the smart choice? That strikes me as the more interesting question.
Sure, fair enough. But you’ve set up a goal post that’s impossible to reach. Look, I took one crude way to look at empirically and fairly (if not flawed). Let’s take a look at the top pitchers, and let’s see who spent significant time at AAA. To support your case, I found 3 pitchers. To support my case, I found almost a dozen. To do something more rigorous would be very difficult because you need to control for other effects that might be detrimental to success. Unfortunately, I don’t have the data for such analysis.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Sure...
…you did good mate; I’m not trying to denigrate the effort you put in. I just want us to see the limits of it – it is useful, and interesting. It just isn’t, IMO, definitive.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
sure, but let me say that we reach conclusions about social trends ALL the time w/o definitive evidence.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Who is we in this sentence?
And what social trends are we talking about?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
you, i, me, peeps in general.
Conclusions like regarding the optimal amount of time needed to be good in the major leagues. But it’s other things as well. Do relievers need clearly defined roles to be successful? Do pitching/hitting coach have an effect on their players? Etc. We reach conclusions w/o rigorous evidence and this happens quite regularly.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
LOL
Look, I’m just saying we, and by we I mean people in general, reach conclusions about things w/o conclusive evidence all the time. Instead, we rely on evidence that’s flawed but that’s the best we have at the time. And this isn’t limited to baseball.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Re: the injuries
You can’t know. It isn’t deterministic – it isn’t like Johnson’s elbow was going to blow out on his 2014th pro pitch no matter where it was, or that Grienke was inevitably going to have social anxiety disorder.
Things happened how they did, and if you could replay events exactly the same, they almost certainly wouldn’t happen the same way due to simple randomness. But there is certainly an argument to be made that Johnson might have been used more cautiously if he wasn’t in the majors, or might not have tried to put something extra on the ball to get a big out quite as often, or that Grienke could have adjusted better to being in the public eye if he had done so more gradually… you just don’t know. Anything could happen.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Of course
this is also why we can never, ever, ever say “Wieters was handled poorly and that is why he’s struggling” or whathaveyou. I said earlier we’re all just blindly guessing at “what is best” but there’s really, absolutely no quantifiable or verifiable way to know what is/was the best path for any one prospect.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Matusz
hey guys like Glavine and Smoltz didn’t have success right away. Let him get roughed up, let him work through th egame a little longer and maybe next year or 2 years down the road he starts pitching better. he has had somse small flashes of good stuff
Maybe if Tatum caught Matusz...
He would have looked better.. There’s definitely some kind of correlation here, right?
What up?
Tatum's primary position is catcher, he's more aquainted with calling games, Fox's primary position is 1B, so he wouldn't be good at catching/calling games.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't realize that a good catcher
can stop hanging breaking balls. With his mind, I presume?
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
River Tam for catcher?
“Also: I can kill you with my brain.”
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
this I can get behind
because I aim to misbehave
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
And who wouldn't love to see this on the big screen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doWOdB1d0mg
"Ohhh it's baad" - E. Smith
Eh
I think there is something of a point here.
A better catcher knows more about opposing hitters, and is better able to determine which of a pitcher’s offerings are working. Now, Matusz’s velocity problems yesterday, there probably isn’t a way to overcome that. But part of why the catching choices with Matusz have been concerning to me is because you expect a good catcher to study the opposing hitters and to know a pitcher and to be able to see his strengths and weaknesses from start to start.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Yeah, that was more of a guess...
Since I didn’t really catch a lot of the game.. I’m not a fan of players not playing their “Natural positions..” It’s kind of like them throwing any Tom, Dick, or Harry into a spot and saying “Hey! go for it!”
What up?
by snakethejake on Jul 20, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Mondays blow, yo
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
I have to get a cavity filled in 30 minutes
so at least you aren’t me
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
that was me last week
have fun drooling on yourself and trying to eat when you cant feel half your mouth
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 19, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Glad I could bring a little sunshine into your otherwise dreary day
"Overdrive the sound and make it sound pretty rude." - Jimmy Page
Who are you, Garfield?
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone's got some major time on thier hands.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish I was Garfield
I could really go for a giant pan of lasagna right about now.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Ugh, now I'm hungry.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Personally I'm pretty stuffed
just polished off half a baguette with this zucchini butter I made last night. delicious.
Every time you talk about food
I get jealous. You should come cook me dinner all the time.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Would he be your intern?
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
dinner last night
consisted of grilled pizza with the dough even made from scratch. Sausage, ham, and salami. mmm. got two pieces for lunch. can’t wait.
super easy
http://www.thekitchn.com/thekitchn/vegetable/recipe-jennie-cooks-zucchini-butter-121770
its pretty impossible to screw up
Maybe I'll try it
Although…probably not.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
you should
i started cooking for myself and I eat a lot better than I ever have in my life. So many delicious, complicated-sounding things that really aren’t. Mmmm
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
That's what people keep saying to me
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
I actually get a little anxious if i go too long without cooking for myself
but then again, i watched entirely too much food network as a child
a friend of mine from school
got on the Alton Brown train…I guess I just feel smarter (though definitely more like a know-it-all…I guess nobody is perfect) and more capable and better for it. But, your mileage yadda-yadda-yadda.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
i just got off the plane
and immediately started making scones :-)
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Jul 19, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's not overreact about Matusz
2 starts ago he had his best start of the season and maybe of his career going 7 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sucks giving up only 2 hits and 3 BBs and striking out 8. The next start against the Rangers was shaky with a some control issues, but the big blow was a freakshow HR by Vladdy on a nasty changeup at his ankles. That one swing basically ruined the start and Vladdy’s been doing that to guys on great pitches for 15 years. Obviously it would have been nice to see him bounce back and get through 5-6 innings after that, but he didn’t. Then yesterday was an absolute disaster. But it’s really only two starts. Even before the start against the Sucks, he had gone at least 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts and had only given up more than 3 runs once. That’s pretty damn solid from a rookie, and hopefully these last two starts are just a bump in the road and he’ll bounce right back.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
by O'sFan21 on Jul 19, 2010 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
O'sFan21 preaching patience and asking everyone to remain calm
Book your tickets for the apocalypse now!
by kba26 on Jul 19, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
That's a rec.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 19, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
And no curses!
Well, one damn, but coming from O’sFan21 that’s nothing.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
word booty, was about to write the same thing
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Agreed.
And let’s remember that this team plays in a division with four of the top ten teams in baseball. That doesn’t exactly make the learning curve easier.
Insert something witty here.
by Knubles and Bits on Jul 19, 2010 1:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
and thats why we are 9-30 against our division
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 19, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
And also has horrible defense
Pretty much every game there are 2-3 plays that a good defensive team makes that the O’s don’t and they don’t get scored as errors because our players are so bad they don’t get close enough to make them errors.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Brian Roberts is in Bowie tonight
I won’t believe he’s back and healthy until I actually see it, but I’m starting to think he might actually play again in 2010.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Might as well keep bringing the movie quotes:
“I have a bad feeling about this.”
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Yep. I will be there Section 109, Row A seat 1 and 2
Seat 2 will be empty so come on down say hello and get some closeups of Brian’s first at bats.
For the 2011 Amateur Draft the Baltimore Orioles take Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice Univ with the drafts first pick.
By the way
because I don’t think I can profess enough love for it: Inception for the motherfucking win!
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Just to prove we share a brain
Inception was really quite enjoyable.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Further proof!
Oh and you know what I just realized. Andrew also has a beard! I’m growing more and more convinced that you’re actually the same person.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Can't work...
…IIRC from his blog, Andrew likes football.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
i do like football
and I’m presently clean shaven. For whatever reason my facial hair is noticably lighter than my regular hair, and that bothers me a lot.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Well whenever I saw you, you weren't clean shaven
So I’m sticking with that.
Football is trickier. I guess maybe you’re just mind-mates after all.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
hahaha
because clearly saying “Inception for the motherfucking win!” vs. “Inception was really quite enjoyable” proves that you share a brain.
by Strat12 on Jul 19, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm still literally buzzed from it
just a great, great movie experience. There are really great movies – like when I saw Moon, I was blown away – but then there are really great movies and movie experiences. The audience I was with, combined with knowing so little about the movie beforehand, combined with the stellar everything about the movie just invigorated me in a way no other movie has done in a long while
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
At first, my friend's GF was talking and I was afraid she was gonna annoy the shit out of me
but about ten minutes in, it seemed like everyone in the theater (or at least my immediate area) were intensely paying attention to the movie. The best part of the shared theatrical experience was at the very end, when the thing at the very end happened and then the movie ended (you know what I’m talking about if you saw the movie), and suddenly everyone audibly let the air out of their lungs and were saying things like wow! and holy shit! Even my friend’s GF loved the movie.
yes! That exact thing happened to me, too!
it was a brilliant sense of community in the theatre. I didn’t see any texters, no phone calls, everyone was living and dying with the characters. And those last final seconds were goosebumps.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Don't Spoil It!!
Some of us (sadly) havn’t seen it yet.
no worries
I think its the type of thing that you benefit from having a very minimal sense of what it is going into it. I wouldn’t ruin that for anybody.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Not that you could even attempt to accurately articulate the plot
I’m not sure there’s really much to spoil because it’d be so goddamned hard to even explain what the movie is about. The concept may be easy enough to convey, but specific chains of events… not sure I could do it.
oh, there's no way
how do you even start to describe the entire second half of the movie? It’s one big-long complicated mess – that makes complete and utter sense.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
man, i put my post with SPOILER ALERT
All over it and it still gets erased?!
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
because when I see there is a new comment and I hit the Z button, it takes me right there
I can’t backtrack that fast. If you guys want to talk about it, create a fanpost. It just came this weekend, I’m sure a ton of people don’t want to be spoiled.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
it takes you there but you don't have to read it
That’s why the SPOILER ALERT header and first sentence of the post was put in!
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
My brain is too fast to not read any of it.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Its still hard to ignore
If you could auto collapse comments it would be one thing. but its going to be right out there in the middle of the thread, so please dont.
seems fair
if we want to debate, we can just make a fanpost, no big deal
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
I will simply say...
thanks Stacey. I’m waiting until next weekend to see it (in IMAX, baby!), and I don;’t want to know any more than the very little I already do about the plot.
"Overdrive the sound and make it sound pretty rude." - Jimmy Page
I saw it in IMAX
Since I haven’t seen it in Non-Imax, I can’t really say if IMAX is demonstrably better, but I sat in the very last row of the IMAX screen at White Marsh and it looked fan-fucking-tastic.
Quite welcome, duck
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
One of the things I miss most about living in DC...
….is people talking at the movie in the theater.
Not that Inception would have lent itself to that, but I loved how much better mediocre movies are with audience participation. People in New York are shockingly and sadly quite well-behaved.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
never been to a DC theater
but philly theaters may give them a run for their money. The reaction to hally b in that scene from swordfish was the funniest thing ever. it went on for 5 minutes. dudes literally stood up and high fived each other. I couldn’t stop laughing.
Try the Times Square theater if you like talking.
EVERYBODY talks through the entire movie.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
just re-read this and it sounded kinda smart-ass, which is
not the way it was intended
I thought it was awesome
I rec’d it.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
I listened to the soundtrack all morning
and I was incredibly productive. I wonder if there’s a correlation?
Also, love the movie, can’t wait to see it again. I was on the edge of my seat the entire time. Just loved the shit out of it.
Luke activated
Mata optioned to AAA
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
That's surprising
I’d expected Mata to be designated.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Well, you'll have to in a few days
Somehow, someone is going to have to make room for B-Rob.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
....maybe
I’m with Stacey. I’ll believe he’s coming back when he’s batting leadoff in an Oriole uniform. Although, with these jokers, they’d probably leave Scorey at leadoff and bat Roberts 9th (he’s like a second lead-off hitter down there!)
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Gonzalez is on the way back too, which will also mean a 40-man spot must be cleared.
I think you’re right though, why bother when you don’t have too. It may be they’ll DFA Mata in the near future, but they don’t have to right now, so why do it?
Although it’s very unlikely we need to be flexible in order to keep the valuable resource Frank Mata provides within the organization… maybe it’s just the principle of the thing.
Baltimore is Baltimore. That's kind of what I know. - Manny Machado, 6/7/10
by Eat More Esskay on Jul 19, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I might rather have Mata than Gonzo
…unless we’re talking about the muppet.
those rehab stats, they do not fill me with excitement.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
You and me both.
I’m not sure I see Gonzo’s return as a good thing either, but I’m treating it as inevitable that they’re not going to regard him as a sunk cost just yet. He’ll have to suck for the rest of the season and even then they might not jettison him until next year’s spring training.
I think I might still be a little mad about Opening Day.
Baltimore is Baltimore. That's kind of what I know. - Manny Machado, 6/7/10
by Eat More Esskay on Jul 19, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I still blame PhilR8 for betting Gonzo would take the loss.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
I seem to remember someone getting paid off on a "Miggi GIDP" bet too.
Baltimore is Baltimore. That's kind of what I know. - Manny Machado, 6/7/10
by Eat More Esskay on Jul 19, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm more worried we're going to extend Scorey's contract
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
as a fourth outfielder
I guess I’d rather have Scorey than Lou…but then if those are our only options we’re boned either way. Also they would want Scorey to be the everyday something, that’s for sure. It’ll be interesting to see their thought process with Pie, Luke, and Scorey all on the roster for two spots.
Wait. Interesting isn’t the right word. “Potentially frustrating” is probably about right.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
Only potentially?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Interesting nugget
per mlbtr and Robothal, some scout said Guthrie “should be better than he is.”
I think there’s a tendency to beat the shit out of the Orioles for everything, but I wonder about Guthrie and his potential/production.
Hang onto me, baby, and let's hope the roof stays on
over at minor league ball - 5 o's prospects you may not know
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/7/19/1575503/5-orioles-prospects-you-may-not#comments
I know James already read it, but its interesting that he mentions two international guys from some place called curacao.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
It's an island off Venezuela that is part of the Dutch Antilles.
Andruw Jones and Jair Jurrjens are from Curacao.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
A Guts mention and a Luke mention as potential trade pieces
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/07/19/mlb-trade-deadline-roundup-mets-after-starter-may-prefer-guthr/
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude
"Mets After Starter, May Prefer Guthrie to Lilly"
Here’s my daily reminder:
I called this before the season started. Dreams do come true!
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
I would hope we could net Reese Havens as part of any deal
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude
by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 19, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe this is my 1st post on the matter btw,,,
http://www.camdenchat.com/2010/3/30/1395321/birds-up-os-down-late-spring#33486742
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Ken Rosenthal claims...
“This is a team (the O’s) who have complained about playing in the AL East, but they are 0-9 against the Blue Jays.”
Excuse me? When have the O’s ever complained about playing in the AL East? Take your hyperbole and shove it up your ass Rosenthal.
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude
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