Lessons from the Diamondbacks?
As I'm sure many of you have heard, D-Backs GM Josh Byrnes was fired yesterday along with manager AJ Hinch. I've always been a fan of Josh Byrnes. He infused his team with players from the farm system and made a great trade for Dan Haren. Not to long ago, the D-Back's system was stacked. In 2006, John Sickels rated their top five (!) prospects as A prospects with two B+ prospects following behind.
1) Carlos Quentin, OF, Grade A
Hitting .284/.413/.474 for Triple-A Tucson, underperforming compared to what he did at the same level last year. This is not uncommon, a player not hitting as well in his second Triple-A year as he did in the first. The theory is that this is due to discouragement. Quentin's status has slipped but I still think he is a good prospect.2) Stephen Drew, SS, A-
Hitting .283/.340/.437 for Tucson, like Quentin he isn't hitting quite as well as expected. Still a top prospect.3) Chris Young, OF, A-
Hitting .267/.346/.496 for Tucson, again less than anticipated. Is Tucson playing more like a neutral park this year?4) Justin Upton, OF, A-
Hitting .279/.348/.405 for Class A South Bend in the Midwest League, certainly not spectacular numbers although the hitting context is not an easy one.5) Conor Jackson, 1B, A-
Hitting .275/.374/.414 in 67 games for the Diamondbacks. Just six homers but has a 34/26 BB/K ratio in 222 at-bats. I still believe in his bat long-term.6) Matt Torra, RHP, B+
Rehabbing a shoulder injury.7) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, B+
Hitting .313/.363/.540 for Lancaster in the California League, 10 homers, 10 steals. Tools hound, has knocked 28 doubles. Strike zone judgment is still an issue but he is making progress.
What's happened to these guys? Quentin was traded to the White Sox in 2008 and played like a beast before settling into mediocrity. Stephen Drew has been a solid SS. His defense has improved after a rough start and his bat is good enough for SS. Chris Young played great in 2008, but he has been relatively unremarkable since then. The Justin Upton has been great and will soon lead the troops in Afghanistan to victory. Torra is flipping hamburgers somewhere but CarGo has been a very good player. Unfortunately, it hasn't been with the D-Backs. Finally, Mark Reynolds and Miguel Montero were also decent prospects as well, but weren't blue chippers.
Why do I bring this up? I'm not sure. On one hand, I find all of this discouraging. The D-Backs, armed with a far superior farm system than the O's, have scuffled since making the playoffs in 2007. The development of the above players players have stalled while other players have left and flourished (e.g., CarGo). Like the O's, maybe the D-Backs simply lack the wherewithal to develop young players. On the other hand, perhaps neither the O's or D-Backs are incompetent at player development. Perhaps these players wouldn't have developed with any team. It should be said that the above players aren't bad by any means. Drew is solid. Young is decent. Mark Reynolds has been quite good. And Montero is certainly a viable major league catcher. But none of them are stars, the Justin Upton being the exception. And it doesn't bode well that the Quentin and CarGo have produced excellent seasons after leaving the D-Backs.
Finally, I will say that the Os need to get on Josh Byrnes. There's part of me that wants him over Andy MacPhail but his shaky player development record leaves me nervous. But I think he can be asset to the organization in some capacity. He's exactly the type of forward thinking executive that the O's desperately need. Get on it Andy.
Are there any lessons to be learned from the D-Backs that apply to the O's? Have at it.
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All it tells me
is that player development is akin to walking into a big casino. If you have a lot of bills in your billfold, and if some of those bills are hundreds, then you stand a better chance at winning some money, but you still stand a pretty good chance of being thrown out at 3 in the morning for not paying for that last cocktail with the money you no longer possess.
Well, that’s not all it tells me, but that is the gist of it.
Fire Julio Lugo.
I like baseball, movies, good clothes, fast cars, whiskey, and you... what else you need to know?
All it tells me is that player development is akin to walking into a big casino.
I see where you’re going but I don’t quite agree. There is a pattern. Star prospects typically turn into a decent big leaguers. But it is a big casino in predicting who will become stars.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
I'm not going to defend a metaphor too long
but a star prospect has a higher chance of becoming a good big leaguer than a B prospect. Just like a $100 bill has a higher chance of becoming $1000 than a fifty does.
Anyway, my larger point: with these prospects, you’re playing percentages. Justin Upton has a XXX% of becoming the next Ken Griffey, Jr. Josh Bell has a YYY% of becoming the next Ryan Zimmerman. Of course, Bell also has a WWW% of becoming the next Tony Batista. AND we can argue about the values for X, Y, and W, and heck, we’ll never even know if we were right. There are literally no “Sure Things” just like in poker (or, if you will, Baccarat).
Fire Julio Lugo.
I like baseball, movies, good clothes, fast cars, whiskey, and you... what else you need to know?
right, there are no sure things but there are patterns
and a pattern is inherently contradictory with a “casino” metaphor. in other words, it’s still a gamble but with prospects, some of the dealer’s hand is showing with you can use to increase your odds.
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
Eh
I think the Diamondbacks are in good shape. Besides their bullpen, they really have a pretty solid team, and that is counting some bad luck like Conor Jackson’s freak illness. They have developed a superstar in Upton and an ace in Brandon Webb, as well as a young core in Young, Reynolds, Montero, and Snyder. And the Kelly Johnson signing was great.
They made some mistakes too, primarily in trades – the price they paid for Haren was exorbitant, and the Edwin Jackson trade was terrible. And they made that horrible investment in Eric Byrnes. But the margin for error in this game is very slim.
That said, a lucky break or a smart move or two is all it will take for the Diamondbacks to regroup. They have a problem with having lost Webb, and Dan Haren is good but not great. But they don’t have that far to go with their current core, and if they decide instead to rebuild, they have lots of great talent to sell.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
So there is a lesson to learn
the price they paid for Haren was exorbitant
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 2, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
manager hunt
From what I hear, AJ Hinch lost the clubhouse which is partially why he was fired (I imagine his crappy record is the big reason). I know in the other thread, people are talking about hiring a manager who will rub the players the wrong way because we’ve had two managers who cuddle players. But I’m concerned someone like Showalter will quickly lose the clubhouse and tune him out. Say what you want to say about DT, but the players respected him and played hard for him (by and large, I’m sure we can point to exceptions like B-Rob lollygagging to 1B).
Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.
but the players respected him and played hard for him
i think there are MANY examples of this not being the case starting about 3 weeks into the season. and lots of players did not respect trembley. they just weren’t vocal about it.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
How do you know they didn't respect him?
I know that when he was the manager we didn’t hear any of this whining to the press like with Samuel here. I mean, he had to go, I’m just saying.
Isn't it almost impossible to believe that none of the perfect games this season have been thrown against us? -O'sFan21
wait...
what’s all the samuel whining?
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
there was stuff about certain players being notably silent when others were defending him.
cla was one, although he hardly counts.
i don’t think anyone can say how many supported him at the end of the day. the ones who support make a lot of noise; the ones who don’t keep their mouths shut.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
when you are asked to do something by a manager and don't ...
I believe that to be classic disrespect
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. - Earl Wilson
Chris Young has rebounded
and is on pace for a better year than the one he had in 08. Still doesn’t hit for average, but his power numbers are okay and all his numbers are up from 08 (not to mention 09). not a great year, but his best to date.
Quentin has been on fire this year
If he stays healthy he could blast his 2008 season out of the water
by wishEYEhadCRABS on Jul 13, 2010 4:11 AM EDT reply actions

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