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Reviewing the Draft: Joe Jordan Year One - 2005

In order to better understand the current failures of the Orioles, as well as to see what the future will hold, it is useful to review the performance of our club officials.  Let's begin with Joe Jordan, Director of Scouting, by taking a comprehensive look at the draft results of the Orioles during his tenure.

Jordan was hired by the Orioles as scouting director in November of 2004.  Jordan had previously been a member of the scouting departments of the Montreal Expos and Florida Marlins.  He began his scouting career in 1997 as an area scout for the Expos before being named Midwest Supervisor in 2001. He moved into the same capacity with Florida when most of Montreal's front office staff moved to the Florida organization in 2002, and he was named National Crosschecker a year later.

Before that, Jordan was drafted as a catcher in the 19th round of the 1985 draft by San Francisco. He batted .213 for Everett, the Giants' Class A team in the short-season Northwest League in 1985, but was injured the following spring and was released at the end of spring training. He returned to his alma mater, the University of Oklahoma, received his degree in 1987 and spent three years as an assistant baseball coach for the Sooners, 1988-90.  He spent seven years in the financial investment business before returning to baseball as a scout for the Expos in 1997.

Jordan was hired by the Orioles by former Executive Vice President for Baseball Operations Jim Beattie.

Star-divide

 

Player Selected Position Round Overall HS/JC/College Signed?
Brandon Snyder Catcher 1 13 HS Yes
Garrett Olson LHP 1s 48 College Yes
Nolan Reimold OF 2 61 College Yes
Brandon Erbe RHP 3 93 HS Yes
Kieron Pope OF 4 123 HS Yes
Reid Hamblet RHP 5 153 College Yes
Blake Owen RHP 6 183 College Yes
Bobby Andrews OF 7 213 College Yes
Chroye Spoone RHP 8 243 JC Yes
Paco Figueroa 2b 9 273 College Yes
Ryan Stadanlick RHP 10 303 College Yes
Bruce Gallaway LHP 11 333 College Yes
John Raynor OF 12 363 College No
Kyle Dahlberg Catcher 13 393 College Yes
Mark Fleischer 1b 14 423 College Yes
Brandon Kendricks OF 15 453 HS No
David Hernandez RHP 16 483 JC Yes
Jeff Moore RHP 17 513 College Yes
Michael Whitney RHP 18 543 HS No
D.J. Lidyard RHP 19 573 HS No
Ryan Steinbach SS 20 603 College Yes
Brian Logan LHP 21 633 JC No
Paul Chmiel 1b 22 663 HS Yes
Elvin Vargas OF 23 693 JC No
Stuart Musslewhite SS 24 723 College Yes
Daniel Lonsberry RHP 25 753 College Yes
Carlos Hernandez LHP 26 783 HS No
Chad Thall LHP 27 813 JC No
Miguel Abreu 2b 28 843 College Yes
Tannner Scheppers RHP 29 873 HS No
Greg Young OF 30 903 JC Yes
Arik Hempy LHP 31 933 College No
Josh Faiola RHP 32 963 College No
Tyrone Anu OF 33 993 HS No
Matthew Sopic RHP 34 1023 JC No
Patrick Egan RHP 35 1053 College No
Shawn Ferguson RHP 36 1083 College No
Stephen Foster LHP 37 1113 HS No
Chris Vinyard Catcher 38 1143 JC No
Caleb Annesley Catcher 39 1173 HS No
Harrison Bishop RHP 40 1202 JC No
Mark Horner LHP 41 1231 College Yes
Bryan Lee RHP 42 1260 JC No
Danny Figueroa OF 43 1289 College Yes
Brian Bent Catcher 44 1318 JC Yes
Brad Rifkin 1b 45 1347 HS No
Benjamin Brian OF 46 1376 HS No
Craig Johnson RHP 47 1405 JC No
Brent Davis RHP 48 1433 HS No
Ryan Saldivar Catcher 49 1460 HS No
Jeremy Bloor LHP 50 1487 JC No

  • The Orioles total budget for the 2005 draft was $4.2 million. 
  • The Orioles failed to sign 26 of their 51 picks, including three of their top 20 picks.
  • Of the 25 players who the Orioles signed, 10 are still with the organization (Snyder, Reimold, Erbe, Pope, Spoone, P. Figueroa, Hernandez, Moore, Abreu, D. Figueroa).
  • Of the 26 players who the Orioles failed to sign, four were redrafted by the Orioles - Chad Thall, Pat Egan, Josh Faiola and Chris Vinyard.
  • Of the players who the Orioles failed to sign, four were redrafted by other organizations - John Raynor, selected by the Marlins in round 9 in 2006; Carlos Hernandez, selected by the A's in the 35th round in 2006; Tanner Scheppers, who was selected by the Pirates in the second round in 2008 and did not sign and who was taken in the supplemental first round in 2009 by the Rangers and signed, and Harrison Bishop, drafted by the Pirates in the 17th round in 2007.  Scheppers is now in AAA and is a top 50 prospect in all of baseball.  Since Jordan took over as scouting director, no other unsigned draft pick has improved his stock to the degree that Scheppers has.
  • Of the 51 players selected, 22 were college players, 16 were high schoolers, and 13 were from junior college.
  • Of the 26 players who were not signed, 12 were from high school, nine were from junior college, and five were from college.
  • To date, the four players from the Orioles 2005 draft class who have been in the majors (Olson, Reimold, Raynor, and Hernandez) have produced a career WAR of 0.7.  Reimold is the only one of the group to produce a season of more than 1 WAR.

Obviously, it is difficult to draw conclusions from a single draft class. particularly the first class of any scouting director.  But these trends are ones which will be important as we review the job that Jordan has done as our scouting director for the past six seasons.

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26 out of 51 seems very high for unsigned picks

Is it?

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 2:10 PM EDT reply actions  

In 2005, the Red Sox did not sign 25 of 54 picks...

…and the Royals failed to sign 23 of 50. So it seems about average, although I picked those two teams to compare to at random.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would it really ever be feasible to sign 100% of draft picks?

That seems like a ton of people coming into the system every season; I’m not sure where we would put them all.

by kba26 on Jul 28, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure

I mean, first of all, there isn’t a limit on the number of affiliates you can have. But as it is, the Orioles have seven in the US, each requiring 25 players for 175 active prospects. Add to that the number of players who will miss time due to injury, guys who will miss the season because they don’t sign until the deadline, and some guys who you can just work in instructionals, and you easily have 200 players a year. Replacing about 25% of that every year seems reasonable.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think a measure of success would be to have a low 'highest unsigned pick'

Most of the unsigned players should be near the bottom. Having a top 5 player unsigned is a serious failure.

Also, I would think you give a mulligan to unsigned HS/JC players, and a demerit for unsigned college seniors.

I've always said that one of the best ways to build a winner is to emulate another legendary success story, you know, like the Cubs. -- Dan Connolly

by CoachOfEarl on Jul 28, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think that's right

Look, it isn’t about being equal to or better than other teams in my opinion. The problem that we are trying to solve is how to get the most value out of the draft that we can. If you have trouble signing high school or JuCo players, then don’t draft them – the value of any unsigned pick is negative due to opportunity cost.

Obviously, there is a variance in the magnitude of which players you don’t sign – not signing Scheppers is a bigger loss than not signing someone like Bloor who no one wanted to sign ever again. But the purpose here is to figure out how we can maximize our utility, not to grade ourselves on a curve against the league.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brandon Snyder will never be more than a fringe player.

But good pickup of Hernandez pretty late and if reimold returns to past form thats a good pick in the third round. However when david hernandez and nolan reimold are the highlights of your draft class, that is not good.

2632

by H Burg O's on Jul 28, 2010 2:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Snyder is still only 23, he has moved slowly through the minors,

and has needed roughly a year at each stop to get acclimated. I by no means think he will be a star, but he could still be a good hitter. A 23 year old in AAA is just fine for his level, and he’s been mashing since June in a SSS. It’s a little worrisome to me that he’s stopped walking since his cold April, but I don’t think we have to give up on him yet, some guys are late bloomers.

by Strat12 on Jul 28, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

His biggest tool is his bat.

In parts of two seasons in AAA he has a below average OBP and SLG. He will more than likely play in the majors eventually but will never be an impact player.

2632

by H Burg O's on Jul 28, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would be interesting

and be interesting, I suspect that I actually mean depressing, to compare Jordan’s success to that other teams.

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 2:22 PM EDT reply actions  

It would be interesting to score scouting directors...

…but what methodology would you use?

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't think of anything cut and dry

I guess the simplest measure of success would be the major league success of the draftees, although you obviously can’t take that into account in recent drafts. I’d also think you might be able to give some credit to the scouting director for drafted players that are involved in trades that bring talent into the organization, although that’s pretty tricky since he has nothing to do with the trade itself.

Other criteria could be number of picks signed, although maybe only in the top half, because what does it matter if the player drafted in the 50th round doesn’t sign, and maybe current ranking of the draftees by BA or someone similar.

Or you could break it down by the level they draft most from and from which level they find most success, although that calls into question of what success is in the first place.

Doesn’t really seem like something you can definitively rank though, except by your own subjectivity.

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would say, making solid high picks, and signing your picks.

Also, not being afraid to go over slot is important. It would be near impossible to actually make a ranking of scouting directors though. Once the player is in the system, how do you know how much of their success/failure is due to player development, freak injuries…etc. I think you can tell who the bad scouting directors are, the Cubs and Astros come to mind, but differentiating between everyone else would be very difficult.

by Strat12 on Jul 28, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah it would be really difficult

I had typed something about going over slot but I deleted it because it’s another factor that is dependent upon the GM who provides the budget.

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

What about player development?

Doesn’t that factor in, and shouldn’t be credited to or held against the scouts? What about average draft position? What about top prospects who are injured?

I’m not saying that I don’t think a quantitative comparison isn’t a great idea. It is just a huge and complicated endeavor to create the algorithm.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

there are too many people involved to be able to accurately assign credit to one person, I guess. Even if you could somehow determine a way to subtract the impact of, say, player development for one team, it would be impossible to apply that to other teams because of any variations in their organizational procedures.

But then, given all that, it seems that it’d be pretty tough to evaluate the effectiveness of even just Joe Jordan by himself.

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno

I think you could do it. I just think it would be hard. The World Bank does amazing work with massive datasets like national economies. You’d just have to build a massive database and compile a ton of data to work through.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well then you better get started :-)

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK

The World Bank’s administrative costs for FY 2009 were only $1,244,000,000. What fraction of that do you think you can provide me with?

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

What can you do with $20?

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 28, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Less

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

top 5 round success?

It seems like he did OK in the top 5, with guys who had success in the majors (hopefully this doesn’t stay in the past tense) like Reimold, and guys who have been ranked fairly highely on top 100 lists (Erbe, Synder), with another major leaguer (Olson) and a nice little return on the 16th round. I wonder what reasonable expecations woudl be for those slots? Snyder not being much of a viable option kind of sucks, but it’s not like that was a reach at the time.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Jul 28, 2010 3:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I guess it depends

The Reds had the pick before us – their first rounder, Jay Bruce, has 4 WAR already, and their second round pick, Travis Wood, already has 0.7 WAR (the pick before Reimold, not Olson). On the other hand, the Indians picked after us, and their first rounder, Trevor Crowe, has a negative WAR in parts of two seasons, while their most valuable player from that class so far, Jensen Lewis, has 0.7 WAR for his career, equal to the career number for Reimold.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very Interesting

This is a very interesting subject. Some of the daunting complexities of rating a Director of Scouting are listed above. Add to the list player injuries. Whether Jordan has been average or good is a topic worthy of discussion. At least his selections have not been awful, as were the choices of his predecessors.

by BaltoBen on Jul 28, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Brandon Snyder went to my high school.

So I really want him to succeed, more than other Orioles fans. It would just be cool if a guy who went to my school that’s only existed for 10 years becomes a part of my favorite team.

That is my highly insightful contribution to this discussion. I apologize if I wasted your time.

by ahoque24 on Jul 28, 2010 4:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Not a waste mate

Thanks for reading.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's an interesting post.

I’m not sure what kind of conclusions to draw from just this first post, but I am curious to know if the Orioles have drafted badly recently (which I’ve always kind of assumed) and, if so, how badly, keeping in mind the role of the organization’s minor league system in player development.

by ahoque24 on Jul 28, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I don't think that you can draw conclusions from this point alone

I mean, I’ve written before about the importance of signing all your picks, and I think this class shows again why that’s important – we redrafted three of the guys who didn’t sign, our highest unsigned pick went on to be a decent prospect, and Scheppers went on to be a top prospect.

But I think the value of it is more in identifying trends.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

you went to westfields????

i went to HS pretty close by…..knew him and his dad too

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Jul 28, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, just graduated last month.

What school did you go to? And I never actually met him, so you have that on me.

by ahoque24 on Jul 29, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Signing the prospects

I assume that the Scouting Director is not to be faulted if a player he drafted is not signed.

Some of the good HS players chosen in the late rounds may be “fliers” because they have no intention of bypassing a few years of college. Scheppers may have fallen into that category. Were I a strong baseball talent, I would opt for three years of college. That way, I would have a college degree, or most of a college degree, to fall back on if my MLB dreams disappeared, as most do.

by BaltoBen on Jul 28, 2010 5:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Eh

The Scouting Director is generally responsible for signing the players, and is definitely responsible for getting a sense of what the player’s demands are before the draft.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 28, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

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