Arrieta, Bergesen, and Tillman: Who REALLY needs to be sent down?
by Stacey on Jul 30, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
35 comments
As it stands right now, Chris Tillman is in the midst of his third minor league stint of the year while Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen toil in the Orioles rotation. None are pitching the way that the Orioles hoped, but while Tillman and Bergesen have become regular passengers on the Norfolk-Baltimore express, Arrieta has been allowed to make nine uninterrupted big league starts. Why is that? Has he really been better?
No, he hasn't. Arrieta has actually been worse at the big league level than both Bergesen and Tillman. A glance at his game log shows what appears to be about a 50/50 split between servicable starts and clunkers. It doesn't actually look half bad compared to Tillman's and Bergesen's game logs, and his 5.40 ERA, while ugly on its own, practically shines next to Tillman's 7.92 and Bergesen's 6.95. I suspect that it is because of these numbers that the current rotation talk is centered on Bergesen and if he should be sent down in favor of Tillman or perhaps even be replaced by someone like Mark Hendrickson. We haven't heard a peep from the Orioles about sending down Arrieta, despite the fact that if you look deeper, he has had more trouble at the big league level than have his two teammates.
Past and Future Performance
| Arrieta | Bergesen | Tillman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERA | 5.40 | 6.95 | 7.92 |
| FIP | 5.72 | 5.84 | 5.39 |
| xFIP | 6.11 | 5.43 | 5.41 |
For the most part, Arrieta's success (relatively speaking) with the Orioles has been nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Both Tillman and Bergesen are pitching better than it appears on the surface, while Arrieta is pitching worse. His ERA is much lower than theirs, but when you look at the more accurate measure of FIP, all three pitchers are much closer together, with Tillman having been the best. Because FIP only focuses on what the pitcher can control, Arrieta can't hide from his horrendous walk and strikeout rates. He struggled with walks in the minors and it's only gotten worse since his promotion, as it currently sits at 5.21 BB/9. Just as bad is his K/9 of 3.91, which is about half what he put up in AAA. Bergesen's K/BB sits at 1.21, the only one of the three to have more strikeouts than walks. And that's even with his puny 3.72 K/9.
Thanks to FIP, we know that Bergesen has pitched slightly worse than Arrieta and Tillman slightly better, but xFIP is the best predictor of future performance, and it tells us that Arrieta stinks. In Tillman's six starts this season, he has an HR/FB ratio of 10.3%, which is just about where it should be. Arrieta, on the other hand, has been extremely lucky with an HR/FB of 8.5%, well below normal. Once that starts evening out, he'll be in for a shock. And poor Bergy is sporting an HR/FB of 12.7%. That high number has messed with his results, but the good news for him is that it has to go down eventually.
Batted Ball Data and Luck
| Arrieta | Bergesen | Tillman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LD% | 16.4 |
15.8 | 27.5 |
| GB% | 40.6 |
47.2 |
40.7 |
| FB% | 43.0 |
37.0 |
31.9 |
Along with Arrieta's high walk rate and low strike out rate is another trend that doesn't match with his minor league numbers. In Norfolk this season, Arrieta had a ground ball rate of 49.5% and a fly ball rate of 29.9%, with similar numbers over his minor league career. He hasn't been able to repeat that so far in the majors. Of course there are plenty of fly ball pitchers who do well in the majors, but not while walking over five batters per nine innings. The ground ball has been one of Arrieta's strengths, especially since he has faced issues with his control. If he can't bring that back along with his strikeout totals, he'll never have success.
Bergesen's success in 2009 was built on a 50.1% ground ball rate, 2.34 BB/9, and quite a bit of luck. Despite his woes this year, his GB% and BB/9 have actually been good. His 47.2 GB% leads the Orioles starters and his 2.97 BB/9 is second only to Jeremy Guthrie. The difference between 2009 and 2010 is that Bergesen's HR/FB last year was very low at 8.3%, and his BABIP, at .289, was also below average.
So far this year it appears that the the fly balls Chris Tillman got last year have been turned into line drives. That's probably a function of all those fastballs he likes to leave over the plate, but given that he's only made six major league starts this season, it's hard to put too much stock in that. No regular starting pitcher this year or last year put up a LD% that high, and it stands to reason that it would come down some if he were allowed to keep pitching instead of being sent back to AAA every week.
| Arrieta | Bergesen | Tillman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOB% | 67.5% | 61.5% | 54.8% |
| BABIP | .281 | .338 | .346 |
| HR/FB | 8.5% | 12.7% | 10.3% |
So if Tillman and Bergesen have pitched better than Arrieta, why has Arrieta had better results? Luck, pretty much.
Poor Chris Tillman hasn't been able to catch a break on anything this season. His BABIP and LOB% are both ridiculous, making it no wonder his ERA is almost 8. If he ever gets the chance to pitch again in the majors (especially if they let him go more than two starts before sending him back down), maybe those numbers would begin to normalize. If we ever get a chance to find out is up to the Orioles.
Also getting jobbed, Brad Bergesen. A BABIP of .338, likely due to the fact that his infield defense is awful, a strand rate that is over 10% below normal, a high HR/FB, and constant talk of being sent down thanks to all three. Let's not confuse things: Bergesen isn't a great pitcher. Of the three, he's the least likely to have a successful major league career. But he is not this bad. And right now, he's not pitching as poorly as Arrieta.
Check out the BABIP on Arrieta. The normal BABIP range is .290-.300, so Arrieta is getting off easy when a batter puts the ball in play. There's no way he can keep that up over the season (especially with the defense behind him), and once that average goes up, it's going to combine with his walk rate for disaster. And if his HR/FB approaches the normal level? It'll be ugly.
If any pitcher gets sent down to AAA, it will probably be Brad Bergesen. But for my money, it's Jake Arrieta that needs more time in the minors. Between 2009-2010, Arrieta has made 28 AAA starts spanning 164.2 innings, but he still needs work. His walk rate was over 4 this year at AAA, something he needs to improve before he'll be ready for the majors. He also needs help with his secondary pitches, which have been simply awful since he made his debut. Only his fastball has a positive value at the major league level. His slider and curve ball have been below average, and his change up has been worse. Give him a chance to figure things out now, I say, so that he can be ready to contribute to the Orioles in 2011.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Minor League Splits.
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Infield Defense
Very interesting read, despite needing to read over some parts because some of the stat comparisons got to my head.
The one issue I have with it is infield defense being “awful” comment. Our infield has been pretty solid (minus Miggy) in terms of making plays, especially middle infield. Izzy is one of the best in the bigs, and at many times this year had the best defensive numbers in baseball. Roberts is back. Miggy is gone. I just take issue with that comment, when so many of our defensive woes have been in the outfield all season.
Our pitchers have given up the third-worst BABIP in baseball, and the worst in the AL...
…numbers don’t lie.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Our all around defense is terrible
But Izzy has been the only infielder worth anything. Yes, Brian is back now, but he hasn’t been here. And Miggi is gone, replaced by either Wiggy or Josh Bell. It’s not great.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Izzy has been an about average defender this year. Wiggington, Tejada, and Moore were and are bad.
1 avg defender does not make up for 3 horrible defenders.
Well done Stacey, this was a good read.
As one of the few Bergy supporters left though, I think it’s worth noting that the biggest difference for Bergy this year has been that he is K-ing more than a batter less and BB-ing a bit more. That being said, he has been much better in the July. His strikeouts are higher than they’ve ever been and his BB’s have fallen back to his career numbers.
Thanks
I admit to thinking Bergy was toast this year, but now I’m not so sure. Like I said, he’ll never be great, but he’s not what he looks like right now.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
yes...
it would’ve been cool to see bergesen somehow sustain his success from last year, but a regression seemed in the cards. i still feel like he could be a roughly average, back end inno be eater. that’s really not a bad thing if you can grow those guys since we’ve seen various GMs shell out multimillion, multiyear contracts for that kind of output.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Jul 30, 2010 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He can be a #4 or #5
And that’s not a bad ceiling.
"I might know something you don't know. 'Cause I've already been young, but you ain't never been old." - Elvin Bishop
Well done.
The only suggestion to improve the paper is the inclusion of a footnote (or a link) explaining the terminology. The reasoning is insightful and well expressed.
AM has twice tried to build a firewall to allow the young pitchers to mature in the minors. Recall the “cast of thousands” approach at the end of spring training last year. The second was the acquisition of Uehara and Millwood. Neither worked out. Hence, the force feeding of pitchers into the majors before their time
That's why I linked all of the terms.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
That's the best article I've seen here in a while.
"[The] dictionary is the only place that success comes before work." - Vince Lombardi
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Jul 30, 2010 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
Totally agree with the analysis
The only reason I’d support sending down Bergy instead of Arrieta is, as you said, “Bergesen isn’t a great pitcher. Of the three, he’s the least likely to have a successful major league career.”
It may be a bit too ‘trial-by-fire’ for some, but I say why not let the guys with the best chance of helping us out in the next few years figure things out up here when we’re looking at last in the majors this year anyway?
Regardless, great article and a really good read.
Thanks
I guess my line of thinking is that the things Arrieta needs to work on, they should have been worked out in the minors. It’s not as though he was getting everything right down there and began struggling up here. The minors are there for a reason, to give our prospects the opportunity to fix that stuff before they get up here.
I would argue that right now Brad Bergesen is the best that he’ll be. He’s not really underachieving, so there’s nothing to be done for him in the minors. Arrieta is a different story, and in the minors the focus is on working on that stuff. Up here, the focus is on doing what you can to win. Even on the Orioles.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Agree
Bergesen probably wouldn’t benefit all that much from more seasoning in the minors. I’d be tempted to send Bergy and Arrieta both down for Tillman and Britton, but that’s more my selfishly wanting to see what Britton can do in the bigs. Doubt I’ll have to wait more than a month or so anyway.
Ugh, not me
Let Britton stay down there awhile, don’t need to break up the way we did everyone else.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Very nice article.
Makes me wonder a bit more about wha the front office looks at when they determine whether or not one of these guys needs to get sent back down to the minors.
Great write up.
Although I believe all three should be in the minors if we had any other options at starting pitcher.
2632
Its a good read, but I disagree
Bergesen should be kept down, and Arrieta and Tillman should be up getting practice during a lost season. They’re the future. Bergesen’s success was a fluke.
Which is too bad, because I really liked him last year, but I don’t think he’ll ever be much good again.
I wonder how low you have to get in the organization before there’s anybody looking at these kind of statistics. There’s no chance anything like BABIP or xFIP makes it onto AM’s radar is there??
One question – I know there’s sort of a typical range for BABIP, but wouldn’t it make sense that guys with better stuff (and Arrieta clearly has better stuff than Bergy and probably Tillman right now) have lower BABIPs?
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Not really
It’s different for hitters, where there is an average BABIP but you really have to look at what they sustain over the years for what is their normal (Ichiro and Jeter are both examples of guys with very high BABIP over their careers), but it doesn’t appear that works for pitchers. According to the people who have done the research, even the greatest pitchers through history are generally at or close to .290-.300 for their entire career.
The only real difference that they’ve found is between ground ball pitchers and fly ball pitchers. Ground ball pitchers tend to have a higher BABIP, which of course explains a little bit of what’s going on between Bergy and Arrieta right now.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
Doesn't that not seem to make sense though?
Isn’t it obvious that a pitcher with better stuff is going to induce worse contact than a guy with worse stuff?
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
It doesn't really matter what seems to make sense
What matters is years and years of data that says pitchers can’t control BABIP.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
I guess
Seems pretty illogical though. It just doesn’t make any sense that Pedro in 2000 wouldn’t induce worse contact than Bergesen in 2010…
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
by O'sFan21 on Jul 31, 2010 1:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Although
I will say I just looked up Pedro’s career BABIP and Jamie Moyer’s BABIP and it’s identical (Moyer actually leads by .001). I really don’t get how that’s possible.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
I think
and this is just me talking off the top of my head, I don’t have anything to back it up, but pitchers who give up a ton of line drives, which are most likely to go for hits, don’t last in the majors, so any pitcher who gives up too many of them won’t have a career long enough to affect the total data that accounts for BABIP. It makes walk and K rates that much more important. Moyer’s career K rate is 5.38 and BB rate is 2.55 (K/BB 2.12). Pedro’s K/9 is 10.04 and BB is 2.42 (4.15). Less guys putting the ball into play in the first place, and less batters on base when they do.
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
I mean that makes sense about giving up a lot of line drives and not sticking long, but you’d think that with the massive variation in skill level through out the league (there really are some studs and some scrubs) that there would be differentiation among how the induce contact. Of course having them put the ball in play much less and walking much less is a huge reason for the differentiation in other success measures, it just still seems like the better pitchers would control the type of contact more than worse pitchers.
BTW…man I almost forgot how fucking awesome Pedro was.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
also...
seems like an accepted truth that speedy players are more likely to sustain a higher babip just b/c they’re more likely to beat out more balls put in play.
( I think I’m stating that correctly)
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Jul 30, 2010 7:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's batters, and probably
Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub
how about Matusz?
Nobody seems to mention it, but why not? He seems to have lost his release point and his confidence. Not easy to regain those things in the AL Beast.
by Dingbat Charlie on Jul 30, 2010 6:38 PM EDT reply actions
Our minor league teams are all also at the bottom of their respective leagues defensively
So we’ll have many more years of this amusement.
Waiting 'til next year.
So a quick review
Tillman is the best of the young lot thus the FO is mindfucking him back to the norm.
by GeoffreyA on Jul 30, 2010 11:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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