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All's Quiet on the International Front

Early July.... a time for cookouts, fireworks, and sweltering heat.  And in the baseball world, a time for the signing of teenagers from Venezuela and the Dominican Republic to contracts worth hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars.

Last Friday, as most of us attempted to tolerate the boredom of our offices for a few more hours before we could rush to the boredom of traffic on the interstates and the security theater of the airports, the signing period for international free agents in Major League Baseball began.  The rules of international free agency are pretty loose - a player must be a citizen of a country other than the United States or Canada and must be sixteen years old on July 2nd.  And, well, those are the rules.

These rules, or the lack thereof, have changed the face of baseball over the last couple of decades.  In 2010, over 25% of Major League Baseball players received their original contract as international free agents, including Orioles  Felix Pie, Alfredo Simon, Miguel Tejada, Cesar Izturis, Koji Uehara, and Frank Mata.  As of today, three of the top ten position players according to WAR were international free agents (Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Beltre) as are three of the top ten pitchers (Francisco Liriano, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Felix Hernandez).  More and more, our national pastime is an international game.

Star-divide

However, the Orioles remain one of the organizations for whom this is least true.  Baseball America recently looked at which teams have had the most success in the international free agent market by totaling up the players listed as among the top 30 prospects for all the teams in baseball, and counting which teams had originally signed these players.  The Orioles were tied for third-worst in baseball, having only three prospects who made the list: Luis Lebron, Pedro Florimon, and Garabez Rosa.  Only the Pirates and Marlins have signed fewer international free agents who are currently significant prospects.

This failure to date represents a failure of Andy MacPhail on one of his key goals when taking over as General Manager of the Orioles.  After being hired in the middle of the 2007 season, MacPhail spoke to fans about his plans at the 2008 Fan Fest, emphasizing the need to rebuild the international scouting department and to find talent all over the globe like the Yankees and Red Sox

The disappointment here is not simply due to inactivity, as it was in previous Orioles regimes.  One of MacPhail's first major moves was to lease a baseball academy in Boca Chica in the Dominican Republic.  The Orioles have expanded their presence in the Dominican to the extent that last season, they split a second Dominican Summer League team with the Brewers, and this year, they are fielding two full teams in the Dominican Summer League, and this year returned to Venezuela after shutting down operations there five years ago.  But while spending on infrastructure has increased, money spent on players has lagged.

In 2007, when MacPhail took over, the Orioles signed a dozen international free agents for a total of $370,000.  In 2008, they signed twenty-one players for a total of $750,000.  And in 2009, they signed thirty-six players for a total of about $1.5 million, according to the club, including handing out one six figure bonus (probably to Guatemalan Manuel Hernandez who was reported to have received one of the highest bonuses ever given by the O's to an international free agent), and three bonuses of more than $75,000.  To put this into perspective, in the last several days, the Blue Jays have signed Venezuelan pitcher Adonis Cardona to a deal worth $2.2 million, and even the cash-strapped Rays signed Dominican outfielder Yoel Araujo to a deal worth $800,000, a number that exceeds our total spending from merely two years ago.

The penurious stance of the Orioles towards international free agents has many roots.  One has been the notable failures of the Orioles most high-priced international free agents in the past.  In 1999, the Orioles gave Dominican right-hander Sendy Rleal a bonus of $135,000.  Rleal pitched one season in the majors for the Orioles, achieving an ERA+ of 104 in 2006 in 44 2/3 innings.  Other big investments in international free agents in the 1990s also were failures, particularly in Australia, where the Orioles signed right-handed John Stephens, who provided the Orioles with 65 innings with an ERA+ of 71, and catcher Andy Utting, who never reached the majors. 

Another reason that the Orioles may be reticent to spend big on international free agents is the taint of scandal that surrounds them.  Numerous international prospects have been caught faking their ages and identities, most recently top Dominican pitching prospect Rafael DePaula, who admitted he lied about his name and age last month.  And even if you can establish with a high degree of confidence that a player is who he says he is and is as old as he says, you cannot be certain the performance is real: Baseball America reports that as many as half of the top 40 Dominican prospects this year tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs

Under these circumstances, a cautious attitude towards international free agency has some justification.  And the lower-priced international free agents can become stars too; David Ortiz, for example, was signed for a mere $10,000 out of the Dominican by the Seattle Mariners.  But the fact remains that the Orioles, three years after MacPhail declared international scouting to be one of the keys to rebuilding the franchise, are the most miserly team in the AL East and among the cheapest in baseball when it comes to finding talent outside North America.  The team knows and has expressed that international talent is necessary for them to be competitive, yet they continue to choose not to compete for the best international talent.

And so, for yet another year, we have created an extra impediment to fielding a competitive team in the toughest division in baseball.

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I would rather overpay for Chapman or Sano than spend money on Millwood, the Marlboro man, etc.

Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.

by birdman on Jul 7, 2010 2:13 PM EDT reply actions  

You still have to be smart about how you spend the money though

Chapman so far is hardly lighting up AAA. Its entirely possible that he ends up being worth that contract, but theres also a good chance the Red threw away 30 million dollars.

by kba26 on Jul 7, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

sure, it’s risk. i wouldn’t mind taking that risk. after all, we knew millwood, miggy, and gonzo were a waste in terms of long term development of the team.

Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.

by birdman on Jul 7, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather avoid focusing on THE international prospect

The risk/reward on a player like Chapman is just too high. I think we need to be more active for sure in the international market, but i think you probably have a much higher payoff signing 30 players to million dollar contracts than giving Chapman 30 million and praying it works out.

by kba26 on Jul 7, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Certainly there is an argument there

But I’d say that either option, from the point of view of building a winning team, is preferable to doing what we have been.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 7, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think you probably have a much higher payoff signing 30 players to million dollar contracts than giving Chapman 30 million and praying it works out.

That’s certainly possible. I prefer the later but to each his own.

Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.

by birdman on Jul 7, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

whatever happened to Sendy Rleal anyhow?

certainly the returns on international free agency are considerably less than via the draft (are there any studies I can get linked to on what percentage of spending/players end up as major leaguers of varying degrees?) but it’s pretty ridiculous that the Orioles are just going to drag their feet while trying to constantly play catch-up with the big boys instead of being proactive for once in their lives and being innovative. Hell, the Rays have a Brazilian academy that won’t pay off for a loooong time, but when it does they’ll get ALL of the Brazilian talent until someone else plays catchup.

Fire Julio Lugo.

I like baseball, movies, good clothes, fast cars, whiskey, and you... what else you need to know?

by Andrew_G on Jul 7, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Sendy Rleal

If I remember correctly he became a minor league free agent after putting in his time, but I don’t think anyone picked him up.

Oh and now we’re warming up Uehara. He’ll die. He will actually DIE if he pitches in this heat. -KenDixonFanClub

by Stacey on Jul 7, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rleal pitched in the Independent League the last couple of years

I don’t know what he’s doing this year.

Don't mess with the bull, young man. You'll get the horns.

by birdman on Jul 7, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the informative article

It would be nice to get a Cano w/o burning a draft pick. Our failure to have an effective international player signing system highlights how badly the Os organization was allowed to decay. Thryft was pathetic on all fronts. Did Flanagan and Beatie also completely drop the ball, or were they hamstrung by Angelos?

by BaltoBen on Jul 7, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

This is a question I can't answer

I know what the results have been. I can’t say who is responsible for making the decisions.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 7, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

No idea how much there is to this, but...
“You’ve got to fight your general manager sometimes,” Weaver said. “We were blessed with one of the best scouting systems in baseball. They not only scouted ability, but intelligence, and [willingness] to play. You’ve got to have good scouts. Bless his soul, I love the guy, but Syd Thrift when he was here, tore up our scouting system. We had some pretty good scouts go to other ballclubs.”


Link

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver

by Vuff on Jul 7, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah this sucks

I’d like to see a few more years down the road though. 3 years doesn’t seem like a long enough time horizon to make a real assessment of AM’s attempts to expand operations in this area. Hopefully 3-4 years down the road the results are more impressive.

Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck

by O'sFan21 on Jul 7, 2010 2:56 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with this

You cant just go in with a list of the highest priced guys and sign them hoping for the best unless you are the yanks. Spend money on scouting and then after a few years you start signing guys you feel comfortable with. Its just a shame we are playing catch up this much.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 7, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why not?

Certainly, you have to spend money on scouting. But I’m not sure where we get the idea that the lag time is 6-7 years. Alex Anthopolous has been GM of the Blue Jays since the end of last season, and has already made a bigger impact internationally than the Orioles for the entirety of MacPhail’s tenure.

But it seems to me that of course you can go in with a list of the highest priced guys and make a run at a couple of them. Indeed, I think that is easier – why not allow other clubs to do your scouting for you? Think of the other teams like crosscheckers – if their scouts love player X, and their scouts are good and internationally probably better than ours, then player X is probably actually good.

Of course, it isn’t merely that we aren’t scouting these guys. Miguel Sano, who we were interested in, was told by the Orioles that if he could get more than $3 million from another team, he should take it because we wouldn’t match it. Sano got $3.15 million, which means that we didn’t get him over a margin of $160,000. I don’t think, given our situation, it makes sense to pass on talent over that kind of margin.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 7, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dont know about the 6-7 year thing

But a couple years of lag time in order to get scouts out there and see the players in question isn’t unheard of.

I would just rather spend the money on the draft if those are the players we’ve seen play. This year i’m expecting more signings as well as we continue to have scouted more players. Sure I would love to see our budget on overpriced stopgaps cut in favor of spending on international talent. But if i’m choosing between signing players i’ve scouted in the states and ones i haven’t seen much of internationally. I’m not trusting that other teams are actually that interested. I dont trust the hype machine, they may be good but you have to pay for the name value then. Is it worth it, i’m not sure.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 7, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh

One thing that continues to mystify me is how concerned we are as fans about getting bargains. It is like we’re going shopping and we’d rather come home empty-handed than pay full price for something.

The reality of our situation is that we have spent, over the years, millions less than our competitors, both in the draft and particularly internationally. Most of our competitors continue to be more aggressive than we are in the draft. This includes teams such as the Rays and Jays who make smaller profits than we do. We are in the midst of a several year period where we are also receiving windfall profits from the MASN deal with the Nationals, and even with over $20 million in wasted signings this offseason, we have one of the lowest payrolls in our division and our lowest in years.

All that money coming in, and less money going out than other baseball teams. And we’re worried about whether or not it is worth it.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 7, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea i expect more this year

Three years should be enough to get a pipeline of prospects from scouts to make good choices. You can spend all the money you want but if you throw it in the wrong direction its worthless. There’s a huge list of failed international bonus baby’s. Especially with kids this young, you have to aim well. I hope we are ready to do that.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 7, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is the O's to a t

At least that’s how I view it. I believe Angelos wants to win. I believe MacPhail wants to win. At least enough to end the losing streak- 81 games will suffice. But they want to do it as cheaply as possible. Problem is, since blowing up this organization of its previous losing ways (over-the-hill vets surrounded by at best average youth), MacPhail has exposed the ineptness throughout the organization in their ability to scout, acquire, and develop talent. They just aren’t going to do it on the cheap as did the Rays. Not any time soon. The mess MacPhail inherited runs deep.

by drj on Jul 7, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's just like in every business

Unless you have a shit-ton of money (like the Yankees) when you enter a new market or a a new product area there’s a lag time. You don’t just start stomping the competition that’s already there after a very short time in the market unless you’re bringing something entirely new (which doesn’t really exist).

Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck

by O'sFan21 on Jul 8, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

great piece, as usual James

It really is amazing how far behind the Orioles are not only the rest of the division, but all of baseball. I’m not suggest that the team should merely throw money at the problem (though that would help), but the team needs to be evaluating their evaluators, and going to other markets as well (i.e., Korea). Heck, if they just copied what the Pirates have been doing since Huntington took over, I’d be very pleased. As for now, I guess not much will happen.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Jul 7, 2010 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

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