The use and abuse of Chris Tillman
by Stacey on Aug 31, 2010 3:10 PM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
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It's no secret that many people around here, myself included, have been very disappointed with the treatment of Chris Tillman this season. He is making one final start for the Norfolk Tides tonight before being brought back to the team as a September call up, but that doesn't make up for the roller coaster ride the Orioles have put him on this year.
Going into Spring Training it was assumed that one of this year's rotation spots would go to Tillman, but he didn't impress the Orioles brass with nine walks to just ten strikeouts in his sixteen spring innings (because ST stats are so indicative of talent). Instead the Orioles went with David Hernandez as the fifth starter (he racked up twenty Ks to just three BBs). Both Tillman and Hernandez were in the O's rotation in 2009, and while both had their troubles, Tillman was not only better in '09 but is also clearly the more talented pitcher with the higher ceiling. Combined with that was his domination of AAA hitters in eighteen starts prior to his big league debut on 29 July 2009 (96.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.42 BB/9), and the decision to keep Hernandez was something of a head scratcher.
But he walked nine batters in Spring Training, so off to AAA he went. I know, it was probably more complicated than that (maybe). Whatever the reason, David Hernandez was given a spot in the rotation where he made eight uninspired starts before the Orioles realized that he belongs in the bullpen. Chris Tillman went to Norfolk where he started off a little rough (having lost his major league paycheck probably threw him for a loop), but after a few starts settled down. In the seven starts leading to his call up, Tillman allowed 11 earned runs in 49 innings (that's a 2.02 ERA). He struck out 37 and walked 8, and he never walked more than two batters in a game. Oh, and for good measure he pitched a no hitter. As he did in '09, Tillman proved that he did not find AAA hitters to be challenging.
Called up on 29 May, Tillman made four starts for the Orioles before they decided it was time for him to go back to AAA. In those four starts he had two decent games and twice he got knocked around, and that was apparently all the Orioles needed to see. He hadn't had time to prove anything and he was gone. The quick hook on Tillman was contradictory to the way the Orioles have treated the other pitchers on the team this season, notably Jake Arrieta, who has been given much more leeway than Tillman this year despite inferior performance. Even Hernandez got eight starts before he was banished to the bullpen.
Back in AAA, Tillman picked up where he left off. He made three starts where he allowed 4 ER in 21.2 innings with a K/BB of 2.6. His reward was a trip back to Baltimore (well, actually Texas), and in case my upcoming tone doesn't properly portray it, this is where you should start to get a little outraged on behalf of Chris Tillman. Tillman pitched a fantastic game in Texas, allowing just one unearned run on two hits in 7.1 innings. He out pitched Cliff Lee and shut down one of the better offenses in the league. It was a very encouraging start.
The Rangers series was the final one played before the All-Star Break, so when Tillman next took the mound, this time against the Tampa Bay Rays, he'd had twice the amount of time between starts that he normally does, and it affected him. In fact, it affected a lot of pitchers, as the only Oriole in the rotation who didn't stink coming out of the All-Star Break was the veteran Jeremy Guthrie. Tillman, Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, and Brian Matusz all stunk it up. In fact, Arrieta and Bergesen had been taking turns stinking for awhile and both continued to do so for the Orioles after those starts. Not Chris Tillman, though! Forget about that outstanding game in Texas, forget about the fact that he'd just had eight days rest when he's used to four, clearly he needed to go back to Norfolk after such a disappointing performance against the best team in baseball.
This time, Tillman didn't get right back into the groove of things. In his first three starts back in AAA he wasn't himself, giving up 5 ER in 3.2 IP, 4 ER in 4.1 IP, and 4 ER in 5.0 IP before finally putting together a few good starts. Can you blame him for losing focus? I can't. Tillman is a 22 year old pitcher who has shown multiple times that he is too good for AAA. He hasn't been given one fair chance with the Orioles this season and to make matters worse he has watched as other pitchers have been given an extended opportunity to straighten things out on the big league level. That includes Arrieta, who Tillman has out-pitched in the minors (and the majors, frankly) despite being two years younger and a level ahead of him for most of their careers.
What does this say about the Orioles? Is the problem in their evaluation of their players? Do they really think a handful of sporadic starts in the majors gives an accurate picture of Tillman's talent? And if so, why wasn't Arrieta sent down after he had a couple bad starts? Do they believe there is nothing more Arrieta can learn in AAA while Tillman can? It's impossible to know the full motivation behind their decisions about Chris Tillman, but just by looking at the end results it appears that they value something in Arrieta over Tillman that just isn't showing up in their pitching. And I'm not trying to devalue or throw Arrieta under the bus by mentioning him so much; I believe he's been done as much a disservice as Tillman by the team.
None of it sits well with me and frankly it's one of the most discouraging things that I've taken from this season so far. There is still time to fix it, though, by giving Tillman a few uninterrupted starts in September and by bringing him in to Spring Training next year and evaluating him on his talent level and not a few arbitrary spring numbers. To my knowledge, Buck Showalter hasn't seen Tillman pitch in person (although with as much as he's reported to be around the minor league teams I could be wrong) and I hope that Tillman will find an ally in the new O's manager, so that if he is going to bust as a pitcher, he at least fails on his own merit and not because of mishandling by the team.
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I disagree.
I am not endorsing the Os handling of Tillman this season, but there’s clearly a message behind the up and down demotions. If there is one thing Tillman needs to do to stay in the big leagues, it’s to throw more strikes. Last year was his first run, and like many young pitchers with plus stuff, they’re able to get by at first by getting batters to swing at their stuff. Tillman hasn’t really changed that much between last year and this. The batters just swung more last season, so using last year’s numbers compared to Hernandez doesn’t mean much. The only comparison that distinguished Hernandez from Tillman has been his game plan and approach to pitch to contact. Tillman pitches to strike everyone out, trying to make them miss.
If Tillman gets it, he’ll throw more strikes. And, then he should be allowed to stay. Overreliance on numbers and hype allows us to miss what these guys need. Straightup comparisons between his peers doesn’t necessarily mean a thing.
So then what has Tillman done to deserve this message
That Arrieta hasn’t?
Tillman has thrown 488 pitches in the majors this year. 291 of them have been strikes. That’s 60%. That’s not awful. It’s the same as Arrieta.
What has Tillman done in the brief time you’ve seen him to make it appear that he’s trying to strike everyone out?
"Stick to what you know, which is nothing, and stick to your little blogs." -Rob Dibble
Oooh! I know this one! Pick me!!
Chris Tillman
BABIP: .346
Strand Rate: 54.8% (by far the lowest and, hence, most unlucky I can remember seeing)
ERA: 7.92
Jake Arrieta
BABIP: .291
Strand Rate: 67.6%
ERA: 5.10
Plus Arrieta has a HR/FB of 7.4% which is absurdly low.
"Stick to what you know, which is nothing, and stick to your little blogs." -Rob Dibble
also true,
but I was referring to what has Tillman done that Arrieta hasn’t. As in, Tillman hasn’t forced hitters to hit the ball at his fielders as often, and he hasn’t instructed his BP well enough to keep his inherited runners from scoring.
Considering the quick hook on Tillman
And virtually none on Arrieta, I would say your stats are quite skewed. That last Tampa game alone drove teh ERA up 2.3 pts.
I would imagine if you took out their 2 worst starts, or even their worst start, the numbers would be quite different.
I'm not sure what your asking me here?
Are you just complaining about the ERA? Because my point is that Tillman’s ERA is based very largely on his strand rate and BABIP, both of which are (mostly) out of his control.
oh, i guess i shouldve been more clear
but i think Tillman is now and will be in the future a much better pitcher than Arrieta. I’m not rooting against him or anything, but I’m not convinced Arrieta will ever strike enough guys out to make up for his walks, while Tillman has shown an ability in AAA to get a good bit more K’s and less BB’s than what he’s shown so far.
Playing devils advocate here.
I’m not trying to defend the O’s, but is it possible that the demotions had to do with Tillman’s attitude/make up? I’m not saying I buy that reasoning or think it’s good enough to yank him around.
I remember the start before Bergesen got sent down…he looked like he was going to cry when he came out of the game. I always thought that lack/loss of composure was one of the reasons he was sent down. Maybe they feel the same way about TIllman.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
I'm not buying it
it’s the same sort of commentary I hear about “how much of a man Jake Arrieta is” and how he’s a “bulldog”…but his results still blow. If Tillman’s mound presence was the primary factor in sending him down, I don’t see how he stands to get better by being jerked around.
...a piece of V mail in which everything but the salutation "Dear Mary" had been blocked out and on which the censoring officer had written, "I long for you tragically. R. O. Shipman, Chaplain, U.S. Army."
I agree
I’m just trying to figure out their thought process.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Well they do seem to love the idea of Jake being so confident
Even though they kept saying that right around the time he looked sad and miserable all the time. I think he grew the mustache as a way to mask his pain.
"Stick to what you know, which is nothing, and stick to your little blogs." -Rob Dibble
I don't buy the attitude/make up questions either.
I do believer players can be affected by shaken confidence, but I think its mostly just lazy sportswriters.
Besides that, what's worse for your confidence?
Being jerked around all the time the way Tillman has been or having your team show a little faith and give you a chance?
"Stick to what you know, which is nothing, and stick to your little blogs." -Rob Dibble
It's sort of tangential
but the absurd handling of Brad Bergesen matches Tillman in a lot of ways except that it was backwards. It felt a lot like the Orioles were looking for an excuse – any excuse – to send Tillman back to Norfolk and Bergesen back to Baltimore. One bad game for Chris? Down you go until yo uget straightened out! One good game in Charlotte for Brad? Welcome back! You’re fixed!
It’s been a pretty lame season, but I guess if I get to ask Mr. MacPhail about anything, it’d have to be the decision-making process going on here. Totally unfair and Beckett-level absurdity, and potentially damaging to young Chris.
...a piece of V mail in which everything but the salutation "Dear Mary" had been blocked out and on which the censoring officer had written, "I long for you tragically. R. O. Shipman, Chaplain, U.S. Army."
that's Sam, not Josh
though I’d watch a tv show about their wacky adventures together.
...a piece of V mail in which everything but the salutation "Dear Mary" had been blocked out and on which the censoring officer had written, "I long for you tragically. R. O. Shipman, Chaplain, U.S. Army."
I'd totally read "Waiting for Votto"
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
by wrb1990 on Aug 31, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's a rec.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Well, I've been waiting for this article.
To me, this is the biggest travesty of this season. Of all our young pitchers he’s the youngest, done the best job at AAA and reportedly has the best stuff of them all. He pitched one of the best games by an O’s pitcher this year. His ups and downs have been directly attributed to the fact that some games his mechanics are flawed which elevates his pitches. So what does this tell me? It tells me that the minor league pitching coach is head and shoulders above Kranitz.
I remember watching that Tampa game in astonishment. Clearly the kid was struggling. Instead of going out and calming him down in the 1st inning, they just left him rot. When things accelerated in the 2nd, they left him rot. When he gave up hit-hit-walk-walk-walk, they left him rot. By the time damage was done, they hadn’t had ONE SINGLE conference on teh mound other than a minor catcher/pitcher one. They just yanked him. That is absolute GARBAGE.
I can’t see any correlation between him and Bergy. Bergy doesn’t have a top-end like Tillman’s. He isn’t as young and was never thought to be anything more than a fill-in/long term relief. As far as Arrietta goes, his control is as reliable as Samuel making the right decision at 3rd base. Tillman went in Yankee stadium last year and pitched an OK game during their pennant race. Not a great game, but after the 1st inning he settled down and struck out 8. I’ll take a 21 yr old doing that any day of the week. Looking at his game logs, he looks all over teh place. Dominant one start, bad the next. This is pretty standard for a young pitcher who doesn’t have a pitching coach to rely on to take care of him in his time of need.
I think most people forget this kid was a highschool pitcher. He didn’t gain the polish that college kids did so he needs help in that area. It’s not like he was needing much of that in the minors cause he breezed through them pretty easily. But I am concerned about how this year constant mindfuck will impact his career. If they don’t get someone in there to help him soon (once he comes back up), we may have wasted our future ace due to complete mismanagement.
Yep.
I really don’t have anything to add; just wanted to note my complete agreement.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
The opponents
Toronto – Brett Cooper 11 W 7 L On the Year 3.74 ERA
Boston – Clay Buchholz 15 W 5 L On the Year 2.21 ERA
NYY – CC Sabathia 18 W 5 L On the Year 3.14 ERA
SFG – Jonathen Sanchez 9 W 8 L On the Year 3.54 ERA
Texas Rangers – Cliff Lee 10 W 8 L On the Year 3.26 ERA
Tampa Bay Rays – Wade Davis 11 W 9 L On the Year 4.29 ERA
Tillman was given 2.17 Average run Support
He was setup to fail.
i really, really, really hope that the O's management aren't basing
their opinion on Tillman on who was the other team’s pitcher. Pitchers should be evaluated on K’s, BB’s, and HR’s allowed, and if that’s too complicated for some teams, than at worst, he should be evaluated by ERA. I don’t think anyone in baseball front offices still believe in W-L.
You do bring up a good point though, since every one of those teams are a playoff contender. Also, every one of those teams is an above average offensive team, and the Rays, Red Sox, and Yanks, and Rangers are all in the top 5 of runs scored.
They can still right this wrong
If they let the mentor go and give him that spot for all next year through the ups and downs. This season of bouncing around will be forgotten.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
Just got back from Tillman's game tonight
I’m too drunk to read everything here, but he pitched around 6 scoreless innings tonight (roughly. I can’t remember exacts), and he’ll be back in Baltimore along with Reimold very soon.
Agree that they have treated him poorly
but I’ve also been incredibly disappointed in what I’ve seen from him this year. The stuff hasn’t looked good (really disagree with the comment about him having a higher ceiling than DH until he starts showing some better stuff than a straight 90 MPH fastball that he can’t put in a spot), the command hasn’t looked good, and the approach hasn’t looked good. I’m hoping he starts giving me more reason to care about his treatment.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
exactly
whatever the reasoning, if you want to get paid, pitch well. If you want a shoulder to cry on, play softball. Beings DT and Jaun had a say back then, I would assume Jake’s ability to stay up in the bigs has something to do with Buck. So not sure they can be compared.
I agree with that
But I also think that given the fact that we’ve only seen him make six starts this season in two different stints, it’s hard to even see if he’s making many adjustments.
Luke and Felix are good for the soul. -33
True
Maybe it’s stupid, but I would be a lot more forgiving with him if he were throwing 95. I don’t really understand how he was such a top prospect if what we’ve seen from him is his real fastball and it’s just hard for me to get that bent out of shape about him being bounced around if that’s all there is.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
didn't bergesen find new life on his fastball
just by changing up his mechanics or whatever? throwing the 4-seamer instead of the sinker so much?
from what i understood, tillman was also developing another pitch, and it seemed to stunt his growth, or at least his results, from this year. here’s hoping it makes him stronger for the future, with a 90-something fastball with movement and command.
asking too much?
Maybe
I don’t know if I understand how Bergesen gained so much velocity recently. Usually two-seamers are only 2-3 MPH slower than four-seamers, but he seems to have gone from 89-90 to 93-94 and even hitting 95.
And yeah I always thought the cutter was a bad idea for Tillman. Hopefully he abandons it and gains back some velo.
Rub some $100 bills on it, you sell-out. -duck
Does it matter?
Query: Is it really an emotional roller coaster for Tilghman to be sent down and recalled a couple of times during the season? I don’t know the answer. He must know that he is a very talented pitcher and that he will be in the rotation as soon as he can pitch consistently in the bigs. I am sure that he does not like being demoted and then recalled, but does it retard his development.? Does it damage him? I assume that he continued pitching on his regular rotation.
The guy who is under pressure is Bell. Bell is getting an extended shot at proving himself. He is not so young any more. If he falls short, the Os will be looking for a long term fix at 3rd. To me, Bell is better than I expected in the field. But, I ask how a player can succeed when he strikes out every third at bat.
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