Saturday Bird Droppings

by zknower on Oct 15, 2011 11:06 AM EDT in Open Threads

Here's your quick-hit roundup of the last 24 hours:

LaCava exit would 'sting' - sportsnet.ca
Alex Anthopoulos: "If for whatever reason Tony wasn’t here, it would be a very, very massive loss that would sting incredibly well. … It’s not like you have a player, you’re going to lose him to free agency, you’ve got someone to step in. You don’t replace Tony LaCava. We wouldn’t have anybody to step into the role."

Mining the Baltimore Orioles roster for Buck’s nuggets | Through The Fence Baseball
"The Orioles are now at least competent in five positions. I know that sounds pathetic to a non-Oriole follower, but at least the days of Deivi Cruz and Marty Cordova seem to be behind us."

Orioles Insider: Should Buck Showalter add an ex-Oriole to his 2012 staff? - baltimoresun.com
As of this posting, you could be the first to comment! But only if you haven't used up your page views.

Willie Randolph will not return to O's coaching staff | MLB.com: News
Britt's party-line article about the non-renewal of Willie Randolph.

School of Roch: Leftovers for breakfast
Roch says: Don't expect any GM developments this weekend, the faves are still D-Backs' Jerry Dipoto, Jays' Tony LaCava and Marlins' Dan Jennings. Also, John Stockstill is in Japan scouting Nippon-Ham Fighters pitcher Yu Darvish. I think they should drop the hyphen and become the Nippon Ham Fighters. Wouldn't that be cool? GO HAM FIGHTERS!

Okay boys, gather around here and listen up. We're shuttin' it down, Open Thread's here to mop up.

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Comments

it's swell that they sent a stockstill to japan...

but what are the chances of getting darvish? are they worth it?

"If it sounded like I was delighted by Tony Romo’s failure last week, I was."
-chris cooley

by j.q. higgins on Oct 15, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

comparison purposes

In 2006, the Red Sox paid a $51.1MM posting fee for the exclusive rights to talk to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and then signed Matsuzaka to a 6-year, $52MM contract (with another $8MM in incentives).

Darvish is a year younger than Matsuzaka was at the time and considerably more well-regarded. Oh, and also it’s five years later.

So… I’d say we’re talking about a $75MM posting fee and something like 6 yrs/$60MM if you win. That would average out to a total cost of $22MM per year. If Darvish hits his MLEs (and stays healthy), that’s a bargain (!), but at the risk of understatement, I’d say there’s considerable downside risk.

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 15, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Gotta be better ways for the O's to spend $75 million in the short-term.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Oct 15, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

venezuelan academy!

"If it sounded like I was delighted by Tony Romo’s failure last week, I was."
-chris cooley

by j.q. higgins on Oct 15, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

$130 mil or more

…or perhaps 2/3 of Prince Fielder?

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 15, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate to be anti-Japan,

but given how massively inefficient a lot of those guys have proven to be, I think I would simply ignore Japan. IIRC, this is Anthopolous’ strategy as well.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Oct 15, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

small sample size, for sure...

but has a japanese starter been successfully developed in mlb?

"If it sounded like I was delighted by Tony Romo’s failure last week, I was."
-chris cooley

by j.q. higgins on Oct 15, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know

Hideo Nomo and Hiroki Kuroda have likely been the most successful pitchers to come over here. Here is a list of all japanese players in MLB per wiki. Korea seems like a good market, but definitely not the NPB.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Oct 15, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

not really a fair comparison

Only a handful of Japanese starting pitchers have come over here, and none of them are in Darvish’s class.

Expanding to all NPB players: so far, the players who have come here from Japan have been either non-elite or way past their prime, and despite that, you’ve got one Hall-of-Famer (Ichiro), plus a whole bunch of guys who have been pretty good (Kuroda, Uehara, Takahasi, Matsui, Okajima, about half of Matsuzaka’s career), plus a whole lot of useful roleplayers (Iwamura, Iguchi, M. Suzuki, Taguchi). Fukudome belongs somewhere on those lists. Nishioka looked pretty good with the Twins until he got hurt.

Basically, the case against Japan boils down to: (1) until recently, the cream of Japanese players haven’t come over to the US until they were way past their prime; (2) Fukudome was a pretty significant disappointment; and (3) Matsuzaka hates the Red Sox and has a “training regimen” that amounts to throwing 20,000 pitches every other day in the offseason.

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 15, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know,

It doesn’t seem like a market inefficiency at all to me. In fact, quite the opposite. I think the Rays did great with Iwamura, so I guess I should refine my point: guys like Irabu, Dice-K have not only not been good, they have been bad and expensive.

I just don’t see why the team should bother with guys who are being posted. Here is an interesting article about Darvish:

While it’s pure speculation on my part, it makes sense to me that any team securing the rights to negotiate and actually come to an agreement with Yu Darvish must be willing to spend something in the $100 million range…Using the idea that a each win above replacement cost $5 million on the free agent market this year, while assuming an inflation rate of 5% per year, we can get a rough idea of how Darvish would have to perform in order to live up to a team spending $100 million on him for the next five years of his career….He would have to accumulate something around 17 wins above replacement for that to work out….These are the pitchers with more than 17 wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) over the last five years: Roy Oswalt, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle, James Shields, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia and Roy Halladay.

I just don’t see how it makes any sense to pursue this guy. I think the Orioles could significantly more efficient trying to sign guys from Korea and Latin America.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Oct 15, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't disagree with any of this

I was just saying that I think “ignore Japan” isn’t quite the right approach.

With Darvish (as with Matsuzaka), you’re overpaying for potential upside. Right now, the going rate for a true ace starter is probably north of $25MM per year — we’ll find out exactly how much in a few months when Sabathia signs. If you think Darvish can become an elite pitcher like that, then $20MM per year is a bargain.

Now: what are the odds Darvish can become Sabathia? I don’t know. It’s not zero, certainly. It’s not 100%. Where you place the probability is where you will come down in terms of how much to post.

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 16, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Now: what are the odds Darvish can become Sabathia? I don’t know. It’s not zero, certainly. It’s not 100%. Where you place the probability is where you will come down in terms of how much to post.

Much, much closer to zero than 100%. Bid accordingly.

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Oct 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

It's the posting fees that really make it crazy.

This isn’t take a flier territory.

I’m not getting worked up about Stockstill being out there anyway. I mean, come on – like the O’s are really going to do anything about Darvish? Probably just smooth-talked his way into a Japanese vacation on the company dime.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Oct 15, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Nuggets,

The GM is in a tough spot for a lot of reasons. One I think is to figure out what to do with some players that could be average with others that could be above average. The article on the nuggets doesn’t classify Moldy as one, though I could argue that he could be a league average LF. The pitching staff is a series of questions, though I like the amount of talent we have. Better instruction and development would go a long way.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Oct 15, 2011 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

well, when the standard for "nugget" includes Robert Andino

then yeah, it probably ought to include Reimold — as in, “okay, that’s not a position of dire need that you have to fix.”

All of that being said, I don’t see how Reimold overall, as a 28-year-old RH DH, could be league average as a left fielder. Fangraphs lists him as having a positive UZR/150 in LF this year, which makes me wonder WTF Fangraphs is smoking; Reimold kind of reminds me of Chris Sabo in left,. with a little bit of Larry Sheets for good measure.

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 15, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

HUGE DEAL

Gotta run, but amazon.com is having a huge jersey sale. Majestic replica blank O’s jerseys are 24 bucks, player jerseys are 30. Grabbed 2 wieters ones. There are very few left. Wanted to let everyone know.

"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower

by daveh873 on Oct 15, 2011 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

this is awesome

thank you daveh

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 15, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry my info was so minimal

I was already late for a party and was being yelled at by the fiance (even though she got a new Wieters jersey in the deal). I couldn’t NOT tell CC though, so I had to sneak in a quick message before we left. I don’t even wear jerseys anymore, but for 30 bucks I just might

"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower

by daveh873 on Oct 15, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

totally...

just got a roadie for 24 clams. stoked.

"If it sounded like I was delighted by Tony Romo’s failure last week, I was."
-chris cooley

by j.q. higgins on Oct 15, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Booooo

I seem to have missed it.

by Holymittens on Oct 15, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

No, it's still live

but like I said, it’s only certain colors and sizes. Here’s one that’s still 24 bucks
http://www.amazon.com/Baltimore-Orioles-Replica-Jersey-XX-Large/dp/B001QAMSHQ/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1318735257&sr=8-3

"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower

by daveh873 on Oct 15, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I wanted a black Wieters jersey

I don’t really dig wearing white.

by Holymittens on Oct 16, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I would have never guessed :P

"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower

by daveh873 on Oct 16, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

still the highest bidder on WW's phone with 1 hour to go!

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Oct 15, 2011 4:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

will you get the floral arrangement as well?

"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino

by zknower on Oct 15, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

zk, if you were still looking for wing options tomorrow, try reading this

http://www.seriouseats.com/2010/02/the-best-baked-buffalo-chicken-wings-in-oven-not-fried-appetizers.html
I’ve done it the past few weekends and have had really great results. Only change I made was to cut the salt a little bit.

by kba26 on Oct 15, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

wow, thanks for this

FOOD LAB FTW!

Only trouble tomorrow is, i’m dropping the missus at the airport at 9:30, and I plan to be firmly in a seat watching redskins/eagles by 10. Including the commute from the airport, I won’t have enough time to cook my own.

But as chance would have it, it turns out there’s a bar that I can walk to that sells some of the highest rated wings in LA. At 10am. And carries all the games. Perfect.

That said, I can’t wait to try the food lab recipe!

"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino

by zknower on Oct 15, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

So normally Facebook posts are stupid and get on my nerves but this one by an old friend was good,

“Peer editing WR 121 papers is lowering my confidence in the human race to a dangerous level.”

ROBERT MOTHERFUCKING ANDINO!

by WestcoastO'sFan on Oct 15, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

So what is up with CentSports turning into "free sports betting"?

The layout of the new site is terrible

ROBERT MOTHERFUCKING ANDINO!

by WestcoastO'sFan on Oct 15, 2011 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

I actually like it better

You bet more than one at a time without doing parley, and it will automatically fill in the same bet (which is what I usually do) when you bet more than one at a time. It also seems to automatically log me out much less than centsports did. My computer isn’t in a library, it doesn’t need to log me out every 10 minutes.

by DaveAA on Oct 15, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

It just seems harder to get to where I want to go,

in other words, there is too much stuff and now they are starting to push stuff that you need a membership for. Once that happens you know things can only get worse. Also, where do you cash out at?
I bet 1.81 on a 6-line parlay to win 30.
Packers (-14.5)
Lions (-4)
Panthers (+4)
Raiders
Bengals
Saints (-4.5)

Feeling, pretty pretty pretty good about this.

ROBERT MOTHERFUCKING ANDINO!

by WestcoastO'sFan on Oct 15, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions