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Fourteen Years in Review

 

So you’re tired of fourteen losing seasons. I don’t blame you, not one bit. I’ve been an O’s fan for about as long as I can remember, so I can tell you there have been more good days than bad. The difference is the bad days weren’t fourteen consecutive years long.

During the losing streak, I’ve seen a philosophical change in the way the organization goes about its business. The biggest change is more excuses and less accountability. Meaning we, the fans, hear about all the things the organization can’t or won’t due to change the direction of the franchise and we don’t hear what they can do. I’ll give you an example; we hear from the front office, "We are a small market team and can’t compete financially with the Sox and Yanks." This is true, however, the reason the Yanks are a big market is because of twenty-seven championships. The market size for the O’s gets smaller every time a fan says; "The hell with this!" and doesn’t watch any more televised games and doesn’t buy any more tickets; the stadium attendance drops meaning  less revenue. The O’s market share has decreased by one.  The bottom line is, winning breeds increased revenue which in turn breeds continued success.

Another philosophical error by the club is their assumption that their young draft picks will succeed and contribute to the immediate success of the club. This wrong thinking is the reason why the front office is cautious about giving long term deals because a player like Manny Machado is on the fast track to the parent club. THIS IS A MISTAKE! Improve the club. Plain and simple. A minor league player should force his way onto the club. We shouldn't sign players to keep the seat warm for some up and coming prospect. I hope Machado succeeds, however, I don't feel like waiting.  McPhail said publicly that the O's success will be dependent on how far our young pitching staff takes us. Talk about pressure!  I don't think you'd hear that from Mr. Steinbrenner. I believe we win as a team, we lose as a team.

My last thought is this. I believe we have some really good players, however, we as fans need to keep things in perspective. Balance the tangibles and the intangibles. For example, after fourteen loosing seasons, I like to keep my feet on the ground with regards to our team's success. Would I like a right fielder that hits 50 hr in a season? Sure, but having a right fielder who never is on the disabled list and gives 100% is something I think a lot of teams would give an arm and a leg for. Jim Johnson could be a pretty good starter, but I bet he'll be an all-star closer.

It is past time that this organization starts thinking success, stops making excuses and start thinking smarter.

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Well this is just silly:
the reason the Yanks are a big market is because of twenty-seven championships

The reason the Yankees are a big market is because of the 22 million people in the New York metropolitan area.

by kba26 on Oct 30, 2011 11:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Beat me to it.

It also helps that they own a TV network that lots of those 22 million people watch religiously.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 30, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not all of them watch the Yankees. The Yankees are a brand name. They are America’s team. Winning will do that. Would they really be a brand name if they had one ring?

by VeganWolf on Oct 31, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd argue its far more likely that the market led to the rings rather than the other way around

There’s a reason the Mets are consistently near the highest payroll in the league despite winning only 2 world series and none since 1986.

by kba26 on Oct 31, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I take your point

If I understand correctly, the market set up the Yankees success and now their marketability continues their success. If so, then the O’s need to win and win now. Can we agree that as the O’s continue to lose, their revenue will continue to drop, which in turn would mean payroll will decrease as well as expenditures in all aspects of the organization?

by VeganWolf on Oct 31, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Orioles revenue has actually increased quite a bit over the last decade, and I think we're fairly close to rock bottom as far as fan support.

 Additionally, in 2010 gate revenue was estimated as only 25% of total revenue. Even if attendance was drastically cut in half, the Orioles would only lose about 20 million dollars. MASN money and revenue sharing would likely be largely unaffected. Sellout crowds, which is in this economy is far from a guarantee, would probably only increase revenue by about 40 million dollars. A lot of that would go to servicing debt and profit for the team. Overall I think fan support could only impact the amount of money available to improve the team by about +/- $20M. Is that insignificant? No. But i think it has a substantially smaller impact on the club’s success than the manner in which the available money is being spent.

(numbers from this 2010 Forbes article: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/33/baseball-valuations-10_Baltimore-Orioles_336064.html and B-R’s attendance numbers http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/attend.shtml)

by kba26 on Oct 31, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very interesting!

Does this mean the small market vs. large market ideology is rubbish?

by VeganWolf on Oct 31, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not at all

The revenue is still substantially lower than the Yankees/Red Sox/etc – the point is just that losing hasn’t impacted the revenue as significantly as some people think.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, i'm more arguing that changes in fan support is largely irrelevant

The Yankees will always have more available resources than the Orioles by virtue of having a market thats several times larger than one available to the Orioles. Increased or decreased fan support would have an impact on revenue. Fan Base Optimization, if you will, however will never lead to the Orioles matching resources with the Yankees. It could move us up or down a few spots in the payroll rankings, but thats largely irrelevant if we continue to not spend the money as well as the Blue Jays or Rays, both of which have less revenue.

by kba26 on Oct 31, 2011 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have you read Diamond Dollars?

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2011 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha fair enough

I’ve been meaning to check it out, but it does some interesting analysis of the financial impact of making the playoffs (among other financial analyses).

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2011 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I did get a good laugh out of this
“Diamond Dollars offers up exciting and stimulating new ideas about the business of baseball. It provides a set of metrics for decisions that have typically been a “gut feeling” for many organizations. I think teams should make this required reading for everyone in their organizations." —Jim Beattie, former Executive VP and General Manager, Baltimore Orioles and Montreal Expos

If only this book was published before he was fired.

by kba26 on Oct 31, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

that is pretty funny

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I haven't read it

but I remember reading some article by the author about how big of a financial payoff there is to making the playoffs. But as you point out just because they would have more revenue that’s not to say the money would necessarily be spent on the team.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it's important to remember

That the Orioles and MASN are not the same company. They are two different businesses owned by the same person. The profitability of MASN does nothing to change the fact that the Orioles are operating at a net loss. And that net loss is directly influenced by the dwindling crowds at Camden Yards.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.

by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Nov 3, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ummm you sure?
The Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is a regional sports network owned by two Major League Baseball franchises — the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles — and televises every available game of both teams, live and in high-definition.

http://www.masnsports.com/masn_news_information/about-masn.html

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Nov 3, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, absolutely sure

They are separate entities. Most major corporations (but in this case, Angelos) have their holdings broken into multiple LLC’s. Major League Baseball is comprised of about 12 of them.

The point is, Angelos doesn’t need the team to be good to make money. He could sit fat on MASN and not improve the baseball team, as we all know. He could and and very well might at some point sell the team and hold onto MASN. Angelos selling the team sounds great, right? However unless his sons inherit the team and MASN combined upon his death, anyone buying the team will be buying a money losing enterprise, and it will probably leave us strapped for cash like a lot of small market teams.

Not to go all dciswe on everyone, but I saw the breakdown of not only this but all of MLB a few weeks back, and it was fascinating. And I’ve wanted to talk about it with you guys so much, but I can’t.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.

by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Nov 3, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know – that site is very clear – they are owned by the Orioles. You said they were owned by Peter Angelos separately from the Orioles. Those are different scenarios and only one is true.

I agree with the 2nd paragraph about Angelos not needing the O’s to be good to make money, but that wasn’t the point I was quibbling with.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Nov 3, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Winning definitely raises revenues and leads to more winning

but I don’t agree with “the O’s need to win and win now” – that’s pretty much impossible. They need to build a winner that’s capable of competing long term.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

the market didn't lead to most of the rings

free agency didn’t exist until the mid 70s

the majority of rings came before then

"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino

by zknower on Nov 1, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome to Camden Chat

Interesting post, I agree that Andy MacPhail tended to base the future around the team on the assumption that the prospects would all meet their potential, when even in the best case scenarios that doesn’t happen. But as for the “Improve the club” how you propose we do that? They have to fortify the minors so that when the inevitable happens and some don’t pan out, you have more in the wings who might.

by Stacey on Oct 30, 2011 11:37 PM EDT reply actions  

I suggest continuing to strengthen the minor league system. However, I don’t agree with the O’s shopping in the free agent bargain bin looking for short term fixes. I know it’s not cut and dry, but even a free agent signed to a medium length deal could be traded when a said prospect is ready to be brought up. I also like the old school mentality of bringing up one or two pitching prospects to fill the bullpen. They would receive major league experience in a somewhat less pressure environment.

by VeganWolf on Oct 31, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

OK, you're right, that was a bit harsh.

My humblest apologies. It is nice to see a few paragraphs from a non-regular and I should be a bit more welcoming.

"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King

by duck on Oct 31, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

No apology necessary

Thanks for pointing out the error. I’m using the blog as a writing exercise in order to improve my other writing interests. This first entry is rather bland. I need to add some spark into future posts.

by VeganWolf on Oct 31, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't mind shopping in the bargain bin sometimes

The Orioles’ troubles are that they aren’t paying bargain prices. $8M to Vlad, $7M to DLee, $4M to Garrett Atkins, etc.

by Stacey on Oct 31, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ditto!

I agree. It would seem to suggest that the O’s will need to take a risky overpay and hope it leads to respectability in the standings. The million dollar question is who do the O’s greatly overpay for that will make the greatest impact?

by VeganWolf on Oct 31, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

ZAUN

"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino

by zknower on Nov 1, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

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