FanPost

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills (exchange with Melewski)


Steve Melewski posted on MASN today about how he thinks Reimold should get a shot as the everyday LF. I'm fine with that opinion, but I thought it needed some qualifiers, so I posted them. You can see his post here.

Here are the Cliff's Notes: Mainly, he talks about Reimolds hot September and tries to extrapolate out to a 600-at-bat season, and then says that even Reimold's 2011 OPS of .781 would be good enough over a full season:

Overall, in 87 games and 267 at-bats last year, Reimold's numbers came up a little short of most of his stats from 2009 when he had 358 at-bats. Last year, he hit .247 with 13 homers and 45 RBIs. His OBP was .328 with a slugging of .453 and .781 OPS.

...

There is a chance that Reimold's numbers would decrease with more at-bats. But the .781 OPS seems quite reasonable for him, even over 600 at-bats.

And I honestly don't have a problem with any of those sentiments individually, but saying "Reimold is the answer" and not qualifying it with "along with some other moves" didn't sit right with me. So I replied with:

.781 is decent enough on its own but not when no one else among the RF, 1B, 3B and DH are likely to OPS significantly above .800. If the O's want to give the appearance of trying in 2012, they can only give Reimold everyday ABs if they make a HUGE upgrade at one of those other positions, or a significant upgrade at two of them (and obviously two of those spots are taken by Markakis and Reynolds).

On the other hand, if Duquette considers 2012 a "lost year" record-wise and just wants to see what he's got in Reimold, Chris Davis, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and Tillman going forward, I'm fine with playing Reimold every day and giving all those other guys a chance to pass or fail for a full season.

What I don't want to see is some combination where the O's sign the Millwoods, Vlads and Derrek Lees of the world that don't add anything and take away starts and ABs from those guys who might actually be part of the future of the team.

 

 

Melewski:

 

I don't think you have sized it up very well. Arrieta and Britton are likely in the rotation, they are a big part of the future. Matusz, we'll see. These are two good young pitchers even if they were not Cy Yng candidates this year. A lot of teams would like to have them. Putting them out there does not tell me 2012 is a lost year. Plus I like the lineup more than you seem to and you can score a lot of runs with players that are in the .800 OPS range and the Orioles have several in Reimold, Jones, Markakis, Reynolds, Hardy and Wieters.

When did I say Arrieta and Britton are terrible? I'm simply saying expecting them to improve enough to make the team competitive in 2012 is foolish. Anyways...

 

Me:

I don't think you've sized up what I've sized up very well...

Say you've got a lineup that includes Markakis, Jones, Reynolds, Hardy, Wieters, Reimold and Chris Davis, and then you've got a rotation that goes Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta and 2/3 of Matusz/Tillman/Hunter. There are only 2 ways to improve on that lineup, which is basically the lineup that lost 93 games last year:

1) Hope and pray to all that is holy that the pitchers (and Reimold and Davis) become the players that they have the potential to be.

2) Make major upgrades at the 1-2 positions that the Orioles have available.

What don't you agree with out of that? You can't really argue that just running those guys and a couple stopgaps out there is going to produce a winning team when all the evidence points to the contrary.

Me again:

p.s. I never said playing Arrieta and Britton makes this a lost year... But taken as a whole with all the other unproven/up-and-down guys (Reimold, Davis, Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen) would make it clear that the team is trying to see what they have for the future rather than focusing on 2012. I'm fine with that if it's the strategy, but there's no way that team is competing for anything in 2012.

Melewski:

You can't just plug in the same numbers for the players and figure the same results. A few pitching upgrades and/or improvements and that lineup would look much better. The Orioles didn't score big at all in going 34-23 to end 2010, they did that with solid pitching. Plus I like the lineup right now and see it as probably better than average going into 2012. Look, a lot depends on the pitching, pure and simple. Add and/or improve there and the team can easily improve on the 2011 record.

Melewski again:

I give you credit for being confident in your opinion.

Me:

Yeah but there's a huge area for improvement between 2011's record and actually being a good team. I think you're taking my "lost year" sentiment to mean the 65-75 win range. When I said "lost year record-wise" in my first post, I meant no chance of legitimately competing.

 

Ugh.

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