FanPost

2011 Orioles, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Orioles 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Orioles games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4409 which translates to an expected win total of 71.42 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Orioles game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4839 or 78.40 wins. The Orioles actually went 69-93 on the season. Of all the teams I've looked at so far, predicting the Orioles outcomes has been my simulators biggest failure. All that talent, so few wins! Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Orioles were the largest favorite to win.

Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc BAL Win Perc Sim BAL Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
05-25-2011 Luke Hochevar Jake Arrieta KC BAL BAL 63.303 63.303 63.368 BAL 2 9 11
05-24-2011 Danny Duffy Zach Britton KC BAL BAL 60.861 60.861 62.535 BAL 3 5 8
05-20-2011 Jason Marquis Jake Arrieta WAS BAL BAL 59.432 59.432 55.367 WAS 17 5 22
05-12-11 Jason Vargas Zach Britton SEA BAL BAL 58.848 58.848 59.239 BAL 1 2 3
05-21-2011 John Lannan Jeremy Guthrie WAS BAL BAL 58.848 58.848 54.853 BAL 3 8 11
08-30-2011 Brett Cecil Jeremy Guthrie TOR BAL BAL 58.42 58.42 58.432 BAL 5 6 11
05-26-2011 Jeff Francis Jeremy Guthrie KC BAL BAL 57.356 57.356 55.589 BAL 5 6 11
06-08-11 Josh Outman Zach Britton OAK BAL BAL 57.173 57.173 57.082 BAL 2 3 5
06-05-11 Jo-Jo Reyes Jeremy Guthrie TOR BAL BAL 56.989 56.989 54.793 TOR 7 4 11
06-28-2011 Kyle Lohse Zach Britton STL BAL BAL 56.616 56.616 60.385 STL 6 2 8
04-21-2011 Scott Baker Jeremy Guthrie MIN BAL BAL 56.044 56.044 63.851 MIN 3 1 4
04-20-2011 Nick Blackburn Zach Britton MIN BAL BAL 55.947 55.947 62.327 BAL 4 5 9
04-07-11 Brad Penny Chris Tillman DET BAL BAL 55.556 55.556 56.729 BAL 5 9 14
04-04-11 Rick Porcello Jake Arrieta DET BAL BAL 54.751 54.751 57.001 BAL 1 5 6
06-12-11 Wade Davis Brian Matusz TB BAL BAL 54.545 54.545 57.501 TB 9 6 15
06-03-11 Carlos Villanueva Zach Britton TOR BAL BAL 54.442 54.442 62.033 TOR 8 4 12
05-18-2011 Bartolo Colon Zach Britton NYA BAL BAL 54.128 54.128 54.173 NYA 4 1 5
07-24-2011 Tyler Chatwood Jeremy Guthrie LAA BAL BAL 53.162 53.162 56.132 LAA 9 3 12
05-06-11 James Shields Zach Britton TB BAL BAL 52.267 52.267 57.046 TB 6 2 8
07-15-2011 Josh Tomlin Jake Arrieta CLE BAL BAL 52.267 52.267 52.4 CLE 6 5 11
06-21-2011 Jeremy Guthrie James McDonald BAL PIT BAL 52.038 52.038 51.015 PIT 3 9 12
06-06-11 Gio Gonzalez Brian Matusz OAK BAL BAL 51.338 51.338 47.466 BAL 4 2 6
04-18-2011 Francisco Liriano Chris Tillman MIN BAL BAL 51.338 51.338 52.385 MIN 5 3 8
05-22-2011 Jordan Zimmerman Chris Tillman WAS BAL BAL 51.338 51.338 53.599 BAL 1 2 3
05-10-11 Michael Pineda Jake Arrieta SEA BAL BAL 51.22 51.22 58.986 BAL 6 7 13
06-22-2011 Zach Britton Kevin Correia BAL PIT BAL 51.1 51.1 56.057 PIT 4 5 9
06-26-2011 Homer Bailey Jeremy Guthrie CIN BAL BAL 50.86 50.86 50.325 BAL 5 7 12
04-09-11 Matt Harrison Jake Arrieta TEX BAL BAL 50.739 50.739 54.819 TEX 13 1 14
05-04-11 Jake Arrieta Kyle Davies BAL KC BAL 50.617 50.617 57.955 BAL 3 2 5
05-07-11 Jeremy Hellickson Jeremy Guthrie TB BAL BAL 50.617 50.617 61.241 TB 8 2 10
07-23-2011 Joel Pineiro Brad Bergesen LAA BAL BAL 50.617 50.617 55.341 BAL 2 3 5
07-17-2011 Jeanmar Gomez Mitch Atkins CLE BAL BAL 50.495 50.495 57.504 BAL 3 8 11
04-15-2011 Zach Britton Justin Masterson BAL CLE BAL 50.249 50.249 44.369 CLE 2 8 10
04-19-2011 Carl Pavano Jake Arrieta MIN BAL BAL 50.249 50.249 60.913 BAL 0 11 11
04-16-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Josh Tomlin BAL CLE CLE 50.249 49.751 57.634 CLE 3 8 11
06-25-2011 Bronson Arroyo Brian Matusz CIN BAL CIN 50.739 49.261 52.654 CIN 10 5 15
05-02-11 Jeremy Guthrie Mark Buehrle BAL CHA CHA 50.86 49.14 51.77 CHA 2 6 8
06-07-11 Guillermo Moscoso Chris Jakubauskas OAK BAL OAK 50.86 49.14 52.861 BAL 0 4 4
08-12-11 Brad Penny Alfredo Simon DET BAL DET 50.86 49.14 50.755 DET 5 4 9
07-14-2011 Justin Masterson Jeremy Guthrie CLE BAL CLE 50.86 49.14 47.888 CLE 8 4 12
05-05-11 Chris Tillman Bruce Chen BAL KC KC 50.98 49.02 57.087 KC 1 9 10
07-16-2011 Carlos Carrasco Alfredo Simon CLE BAL CLE 51.1 48.9 53.145 BAL 5 6 11
07-22-2011 Ervin Santana Alfredo Simon LAA BAL LAA 51.338 48.662 53.382 LAA 6 1 7
07-19-2011 Kyle Weiland Jeremy Guthrie BOS BAL BOS 51.574 48.426 50.153 BAL 2 6 8
08-28-2011 Bartolo Colon Zach Britton NYA BAL NYA 51.574 48.426 48.428 BAL 0 2 2
05-30-2011 Jake Arrieta Doug Fister BAL SEA SEA 51.691 48.309 42.825 SEA 3 4 7
08-05-11 Brad Mills Tommy Hunter TOR BAL TOR 51.807 48.193 57.76 TOR 5 4 9
04-10-11 C.J. Wilson Jeremy Guthrie TEX BAL TEX 52.038 47.962 47.463 TEX 3 0 3
05-29-2011 Zach Britton Guillermo Moscoso BAL OAK OAK 52.038 47.962 48.883 OAK 4 6 10
05-01-11 Zach Britton Gavin Floyd BAL CHA CHA 52.153 47.847 49.537 BAL 6 4 10
04-09-11 Colby Lewis Zach Britton TEX BAL TEX 52.267 47.733 47.733 BAL 0 5 5
06-20-2011 Jake Arrieta Charlie Morton BAL PIT PIT 52.267 47.733 47.098 BAL 8 3 11
05-15-2011 Jake Arrieta Andy Sonnanstine BAL TB TB 52.607 47.393 51.394 BAL 9 3 12
09-01-11 Luis Perez Tommy Hunter TOR BAL TOR 52.719 47.281 59.567 TOR 8 6 14
06-16-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Zach Stewart BAL TOR TOR 52.941 47.059 52.646 BAL 4 3 7
07-20-2011 Andrew Miller Jake Arrieta BOS BAL BOS 52.941 47.059 46.426 BOS 4 0 4
04-03-11 Zach Britton Wade Davis BAL TB TB 53.052 46.948 51.84 BAL 5 1 6
08-08-11 John Danks Jeremy Guthrie CHA BAL CHA 53.162 46.838 53.606 CHA 7 6 13
06-24-2011 Edinson Volquez Chris Jakubauskas CIN BAL CIN 53.162 46.838 46.704 BAL 4 5 9
08-03-11 Jeremy Guthrie Luke Hochevar BAL KC KC 53.38 46.62 52.023 KC 2 6 8
06-04-11 Ricky Romero Jake Arrieta TOR BAL TOR 53.38 46.62 54.156 BAL 3 5 8
08-31-2011 Henderson Alvarez Jo-Jo Reyes TOR BAL TOR 53.38 46.62 58.995 TOR 13 0 13
05-08-11 Wade Davis Brad Bergesen TB BAL TB 53.704 46.296 53.935 TB 5 3 8
08-11-11 Mark Buehrle Chris Tillman CHA BAL CHA 53.811 46.189 54.979 CHA 6 3 9
04-24-2011 Freddy Garcia Chris Tillman NYA BAL NYA 53.811 46.189 49.303 NYA 6 3 9
06-17-2011 Zach Britton Jason Marquis BAL WAS WAS 53.917 46.083 44.249 WAS 4 8 12
05-03-11 Brad Bergesen Jeff Francis BAL KC KC 54.128 45.872 52.588 KC 5 6 11
09-12-11 Jeff Niemann Zach Britton TB BAL TB 54.233 45.767 59.484 TB 5 2 7
08-02-11 Alfredo Simon Bruce Chen BAL KC KC 54.442 45.558 52.381 BAL 8 2 10
06-10-11 Jeremy Hellickson Jake Arrieta TB BAL TB 54.649 45.351 48.473 BAL 0 7 7
08-28-2011 Ivan Nova Brian Matusz NYA BAL NYA 54.649 45.351 44.167 NYA 8 3 11
08-10-11 Phil Humber Tommy Hunter CHA BAL CHA 54.853 45.147 51.38 BAL 4 6 10
07-18-2011 Tim Wakefield Brad Bergesen BOS BAL BOS 54.853 45.147 47.964 BOS 15 10 25
08-24-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Kevin Slowey BAL MIN MIN 54.853 45.147 45.183 BAL 6 1 7
06-11-11 David Price Jeremy Guthrie TB BAL TB 54.955 45.045 43.855 TB 7 5 12
04-30-2011 Chris Tillman Phil Humber BAL CHA CHA 54.955 45.045 54.411 BAL 6 2 8
08-13-2011 Max Scherzer Jeremy Guthrie DET BAL DET 55.056 44.944 47.774 DET 6 5 11
04-26-2011 Clay Buchholz Zach Britton BOS BAL BOS 55.257 44.743 57.518 BAL 1 4 5
05-11-11 Felx Hernandez Chris Tillman SEA BAL SEA 55.457 44.543 51.994 BAL 2 4 6
04-17-2011 Brad Bergesen Fausto Carmona BAL CLE CLE 55.654 44.346 52.698 CLE 2 4 6
06-30-2011 Jaime Garcia Brian Matusz STL BAL STL 55.85 44.15 46.567 STL 9 6 15
08-04-11 Zach Britton Jeff Francis BAL KC KC 56.044 43.956 49.528 KC 4 9 13
04-06-11 Justin Verlander Brad Bergesen DET BAL DET 56.14 43.86 46.909 DET 7 3 10
05-31-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Erik Bedard BAL SEA SEA 56.427 43.573 47.807 SEA 2 3 5
08-09-11 Gavin Floyd Jo-Jo Reyes CHA BAL CHA 56.616 43.384 54.234 CHA 4 3 7
06-19-2011 Chris Jakubauskas Tom Gorzelanny BAL WAS WAS 56.616 43.384 42.502 BAL 7 4 11
08-20-2011 Tommy Hunter Joel Pineiro BAL LAA LAA 56.616 43.384 52.339 LAA 8 9 17
08-06-11 Brandon Morrow Chris Tillman TOR BAL TOR 56.803 43.197 49.191 BAL 2 6 8
06-29-2011 Chris Carpenter Chris Jakubauskas STL BAL STL 56.803 43.197 50.86 STL 5 1 6
08-22-2011 Zach Britton Carl Pavano BAL MIN MIN 56.989 43.011 48.979 BAL 4 1 5
05-28-2011 Brad Bergesen Josh Outman BAL OAK OAK 57.173 42.827 47.133 OAK 2 4 6
08-16-2011 Brian Matusz Guillermo Moscoso BAL OAK OAK 57.173 42.827 46.628 OAK 3 4 7
09-14-2011 Wade Davis Jeremy Guthrie TB BAL TB 57.173 42.827 53.913 BAL 2 6 8
08-07-11 Ricky Romero Alfredo Simon TOR BAL TOR 57.447 42.553 51.046 TOR 7 2 9
07-30-2011 Zach Britton Ivan Nova BAL NYA NYA 57.537 42.463 42.41 NYA 3 17 20
08-14-2011 Doug Fister Jo-Jo Reyes DET BAL DET 57.895 42.105 43.115 BAL 5 8 13
05-13-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Jeremy Hellickson BAL TB TB 58.246 41.754 48.947 TB 0 3 3
08-23-2011 Alfredo Simon Brian Duensing BAL MIN MIN 58.333 41.667 45.974 BAL 8 1 9
09-17-2011 Ervin Santana Zach Britton LAA BAL LAA 58.333 41.667 56.34 BAL 2 6 8
09-09-11 Jeremy Guthrie Brett Cecil BAL TOR TOR 58.592 41.408 47.414 BAL 2 0 2
08-21-2011 Brian Matusz Jerome Williams BAL LAA LAA 58.592 41.408 50.361 LAA 1 7 8
06-14-2011 Chris Jakubauskas Carlos Villanueva BAL TOR TOR 58.932 41.068 50.31 TOR 5 6 11
09-22-2011 Zach Britton Jacob Turner BAL DET DET 59.1 40.9 45.98 BAL 6 5 11
06-18-2011 Brian Matusz Jordan Zimmerman BAL WAS WAS 59.184 40.816 35.337 WAS 2 4 6
04-27-2011 Josh Beckett Jeremy Guthrie BOS BAL BOS 59.267 40.733 49.053 BAL 4 5 9
05-14-2011 Brad Bergesen Wade Davis BAL TB TB 59.267 40.733 47.9 BAL 6 0 6
04-29-2011 Jake Arrieta John Danks BAL CHA CHA 59.432 40.568 47.394 BAL 10 4 14
07-03-11 Zach Britton Brandon Beachy BAL ATL ATL 59.596 40.404 50.603 BAL 5 4 9
07-28-2011 Brad Bergesen Carlos Villanueva BAL TOR TOR 59.759 40.241 45.16 TOR 5 8 13
08-26-2011 A.J. Burnett Tommy Hunter NYA BAL NYA 59.759 40.241 49.058 BAL 5 12 17
08-29-2011 Freddy Garcia Jeremy Guthrie NYA BAL NYA 59.759 40.241 40.195 NYA 3 2 5
08-17-2011 Alfredo Simon Brandon McCarthy BAL OAK OAK 59.92 40.08 40.37 OAK 5 6 11
09-25-2011 Brian Matusz Brad Penny BAL DET DET 60 40 44.044 DET 6 10 16
07-07-11 Jake Arrieta Andrew Miller BAL BOS BOS 60.08 39.92 41.191 BOS 4 10 14
06-15-2011 Jake Arrieta Ricky Romero BAL TOR TOR 60.239 39.761 47.083 TOR 1 4 5
09-11-11 Tommy Hunter Dustin McGowan BAL TOR TOR 60.552 39.448 47.539 TOR 5 6 11
08-25-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Francisco Liriano BAL MIN MIN 60.707 39.293 44.46 BAL 6 1 7
06-01-11 Brian Matusz Michael Pineda BAL SEA SEA 60.861 39.139 40.974 BAL 2 1 3
09-27-2011 Erik Bedard Zach Britton BOS BAL BOS 61.165 38.835 47.314 BOS 8 7 15
07-10-11 Mitch Atkins Kyle Weiland BAL BOS BOS 61.24 38.76 36.415 BOS 6 8 14
05-27-2011 Chris Tillman Gio Gonzalez BAL OAK OAK 61.315 38.685 38.845 OAK 2 6 8
07-27-2011 Alfredo Simon Ricky Romero BAL TOR TOR 61.39 38.61 46.704 TOR 0 3 3
08-15-2011 Tommy Hunter Gio Gonzalez BAL OAK OAK 61.538 38.462 40.404 BAL 6 2 8
09-19-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Kyle Weiland BAL BOS BOS 61.686 38.314 38.94 BAL 6 5 11
07-09-11 Alfredo Simon John Lackey BAL BOS BOS 61.759 38.241 38.119 BOS 0 4 4
07-05-11 Mitch Atkins Matt Harrison BAL TEX TEX 61.905 38.095 38.077 TEX 2 4 6
07-01-11 Jeremy Guthrie Jair Jurrjens BAL ATL ATL 62.049 37.951 46.094 ATL 0 4 4
09-03-11 Alfredo Simon Wade Davis BAL TB TB 62.264 37.736 45.273 TB 3 6 9
09-23-2011 Alfredo Simon Rick Porcello BAL DET DET 62.264 37.736 39.84 DET 3 4 7
09-18-2011 Jered Weaver Alfredo Simon LAA BAL LAA 62.406 37.594 48.79 LAA 11 2 13
04-23-2011 C.C. Sabathia Brad Bergesen NYA BAL NYA 62.547 37.453 36.43 NYA 15 3 18
07-02-11 Jake Arrieta Tim Hudson BAL ATL ATL 62.617 37.383 43.448 ATL 4 5 9
04-13-2011 Chris Tillman A.J. Burnett BAL NYA NYA 62.756 37.244 41.614 NYA 4 7 11
09-10-11 Rick VandenHurk Henderson Alvarez BAL TOR TOR 62.894 37.106 47.008 TOR 4 5 9
04-28-2011 Jon Lester Brad Bergesen BOS BAL BOS 63.303 36.697 39.291 BOS 6 2 8
05-16-2011 Chris Tillman Daisuke Matsuzaka BAL BOS BOS 63.303 36.697 42.235 BOS 7 8 15
07-26-2011 Jake Arrieta Brandon Morrow BAL TOR TOR 63.303 36.697 39.221 BAL 12 4 16
04-02-11 Chris Tillman James Shields BAL TB TB 63.504 36.496 47.757 BAL 3 1 4
09-04-11 Jeremy Guthrie Jeremy Hellickson BAL TB TB 63.57 36.43 43.966 TB 1 8 9
05-19-2011 C.C. Sabathia Brad Bergesen NYA BAL NYA 63.702 36.298 37.069 NYA 13 2 15
09-16-2011 Dan Haren Tommy Hunter LAA BAL LAA 63.702 36.298 45.326 BAL 3 8 11
07-06-11 Jeremy Guthrie Alexi Ogando BAL TEX TEX 63.834 36.166 35.328 TEX 5 13 18
04-14-2011 Jake Arrieta Phil Hughes BAL NYA NYA 63.899 36.101 40.614 NYA 5 6 11
04-01-11 Jeremy Guthrie David Price BAL TB TB 64.222 35.778 44.938 BAL 4 1 5
07-30-2011 Chris Tillman Bartolo Colon BAL NYA NYA 64.286 35.714 35.719 NYA 3 8 11
09-07-11 Zach Britton A.J. Burnett BAL NYA NYA 64.851 35.149 40.355 BAL 5 4 9
07-31-2011 Jake Arrieta Freddy Garcia BAL NYA NYA 65.096 34.904 31.667 NYA 2 4 6
07-04-11 Chris Jakubauskas Colby Lewis BAL TEX TEX 65.157 34.843 42.339 TEX 4 13 17
07-29-2011 Jeremy Guthrie A.J. Burnett BAL NYA NYA 65.217 34.783 39.463 BAL 4 2 6
09-28-2011 Jon Lester Alfredo Simon BOS BAL BOS 66.102 33.898 39.257 BAL 3 4 7
09-08-11 Ivan Nova Alfredo Simon NYA BAL NYA 66.667 33.333 40.915 BAL 4 5 9
07-08-11 Zach Britton Josh Beckett BAL BOS BOS 66.997 33.003 40.157 BOS 3 10 13
09-02-11 Zach Britton David Price BAL TB TB 67.213 32.787 43.86 BAL 3 2 5
09-13-2011 David Price Alfredo Simon TB BAL TB 67.638 32.362 45.692 BAL 2 4 6
09-26-2011 Josh Beckett Tommy Hunter BOS BAL BOS 67.742 32.258 43.022 BAL 3 6 9
09-19-2011 Brian Matusz John Lackey BAL BOS BOS 68.992 31.008 37.3 BOS 9 18 27
09-06-11 Tommy Hunter Phil Hughes BAL NYA NYA 69.231 30.769 35.271 NYA 3 5 8
08-19-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Dan Haren BAL LAA LAA 69.231 30.769 40.025 LAA 3 8 11
09-20-2011 Rick VandenHurk Erik Bedard BAL BOS BOS 69.231 30.769 29.59 BAL 7 5 12
09-05-11 Jo-Jo Reyes Freddy Garcia BAL NYA NYA 70.588 29.412 29.91 NYA 10 11 21
09-21-2011 Tommy Hunter Josh Beckett BAL BOS BOS 70.803 29.197 34.72 BAL 6 4 10
09-24-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Justin Verlander BAL DET DET 71.098 28.902 33.15 BAL 6 5 11

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.