2011 Orioles, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 15, 2011 10:54 AM EST

Here is a look at how the Orioles 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Orioles games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4409 which translates to an expected win total of 71.42 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Orioles game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4839 or 78.40 wins. The Orioles actually went 69-93 on the season. Of all the teams I've looked at so far, predicting the Orioles outcomes has been my simulators biggest failure. All that talent, so few wins! Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Orioles were the largest favorite to win.

Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	BAL Win Perc	Sim BAL Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
05-25-2011	Luke Hochevar	Jake Arrieta	KC	BAL	BAL	63.303	63.303	63.368	BAL	2	9	11
05-24-2011	Danny Duffy	Zach Britton	KC	BAL	BAL	60.861	60.861	62.535	BAL	3	5	8
05-20-2011	Jason Marquis	Jake Arrieta	WAS	BAL	BAL	59.432	59.432	55.367	WAS	17	5	22
05-12-11	Jason Vargas	Zach Britton	SEA	BAL	BAL	58.848	58.848	59.239	BAL	1	2	3
05-21-2011	John Lannan	Jeremy Guthrie	WAS	BAL	BAL	58.848	58.848	54.853	BAL	3	8	11
08-30-2011	Brett Cecil	Jeremy Guthrie	TOR	BAL	BAL	58.42	58.42	58.432	BAL	5	6	11
05-26-2011	Jeff Francis	Jeremy Guthrie	KC	BAL	BAL	57.356	57.356	55.589	BAL	5	6	11
06-08-11	Josh Outman	Zach Britton	OAK	BAL	BAL	57.173	57.173	57.082	BAL	2	3	5
06-05-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Jeremy Guthrie	TOR	BAL	BAL	56.989	56.989	54.793	TOR	7	4	11
06-28-2011	Kyle Lohse	Zach Britton	STL	BAL	BAL	56.616	56.616	60.385	STL	6	2	8
04-21-2011	Scott Baker	Jeremy Guthrie	MIN	BAL	BAL	56.044	56.044	63.851	MIN	3	1	4
04-20-2011	Nick Blackburn	Zach Britton	MIN	BAL	BAL	55.947	55.947	62.327	BAL	4	5	9
04-07-11	Brad Penny	Chris Tillman	DET	BAL	BAL	55.556	55.556	56.729	BAL	5	9	14
04-04-11	Rick Porcello	Jake Arrieta	DET	BAL	BAL	54.751	54.751	57.001	BAL	1	5	6
06-12-11	Wade Davis	Brian Matusz	TB	BAL	BAL	54.545	54.545	57.501	TB	9	6	15
06-03-11	Carlos Villanueva	Zach Britton	TOR	BAL	BAL	54.442	54.442	62.033	TOR	8	4	12
05-18-2011	Bartolo Colon	Zach Britton	NYA	BAL	BAL	54.128	54.128	54.173	NYA	4	1	5
07-24-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Jeremy Guthrie	LAA	BAL	BAL	53.162	53.162	56.132	LAA	9	3	12
05-06-11	James Shields	Zach Britton	TB	BAL	BAL	52.267	52.267	57.046	TB	6	2	8
07-15-2011	Josh Tomlin	Jake Arrieta	CLE	BAL	BAL	52.267	52.267	52.4	CLE	6	5	11
06-21-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	James McDonald	BAL	PIT	BAL	52.038	52.038	51.015	PIT	3	9	12
06-06-11	Gio Gonzalez	Brian Matusz	OAK	BAL	BAL	51.338	51.338	47.466	BAL	4	2	6
04-18-2011	Francisco Liriano	Chris Tillman	MIN	BAL	BAL	51.338	51.338	52.385	MIN	5	3	8
05-22-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Chris Tillman	WAS	BAL	BAL	51.338	51.338	53.599	BAL	1	2	3
05-10-11	Michael Pineda	Jake Arrieta	SEA	BAL	BAL	51.22	51.22	58.986	BAL	6	7	13
06-22-2011	Zach Britton	Kevin Correia	BAL	PIT	BAL	51.1	51.1	56.057	PIT	4	5	9
06-26-2011	Homer Bailey	Jeremy Guthrie	CIN	BAL	BAL	50.86	50.86	50.325	BAL	5	7	12
04-09-11	Matt Harrison	Jake Arrieta	TEX	BAL	BAL	50.739	50.739	54.819	TEX	13	1	14
05-04-11	Jake Arrieta	Kyle Davies	BAL	KC	BAL	50.617	50.617	57.955	BAL	3	2	5
05-07-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Jeremy Guthrie	TB	BAL	BAL	50.617	50.617	61.241	TB	8	2	10
07-23-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brad Bergesen	LAA	BAL	BAL	50.617	50.617	55.341	BAL	2	3	5
07-17-2011	Jeanmar Gomez	Mitch Atkins	CLE	BAL	BAL	50.495	50.495	57.504	BAL	3	8	11
04-15-2011	Zach Britton	Justin Masterson	BAL	CLE	BAL	50.249	50.249	44.369	CLE	2	8	10
04-19-2011	Carl Pavano	Jake Arrieta	MIN	BAL	BAL	50.249	50.249	60.913	BAL	0	11	11
04-16-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Josh Tomlin	BAL	CLE	CLE	50.249	49.751	57.634	CLE	3	8	11
06-25-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Brian Matusz	CIN	BAL	CIN	50.739	49.261	52.654	CIN	10	5	15
05-02-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Mark Buehrle	BAL	CHA	CHA	50.86	49.14	51.77	CHA	2	6	8
06-07-11	Guillermo Moscoso	Chris Jakubauskas	OAK	BAL	OAK	50.86	49.14	52.861	BAL	0	4	4
08-12-11	Brad Penny	Alfredo Simon	DET	BAL	DET	50.86	49.14	50.755	DET	5	4	9
07-14-2011	Justin Masterson	Jeremy Guthrie	CLE	BAL	CLE	50.86	49.14	47.888	CLE	8	4	12
05-05-11	Chris Tillman	Bruce Chen	BAL	KC	KC	50.98	49.02	57.087	KC	1	9	10
07-16-2011	Carlos Carrasco	Alfredo Simon	CLE	BAL	CLE	51.1	48.9	53.145	BAL	5	6	11
07-22-2011	Ervin Santana	Alfredo Simon	LAA	BAL	LAA	51.338	48.662	53.382	LAA	6	1	7
07-19-2011	Kyle Weiland	Jeremy Guthrie	BOS	BAL	BOS	51.574	48.426	50.153	BAL	2	6	8
08-28-2011	Bartolo Colon	Zach Britton	NYA	BAL	NYA	51.574	48.426	48.428	BAL	0	2	2
05-30-2011	Jake Arrieta	Doug Fister	BAL	SEA	SEA	51.691	48.309	42.825	SEA	3	4	7
08-05-11	Brad Mills	Tommy Hunter	TOR	BAL	TOR	51.807	48.193	57.76	TOR	5	4	9
04-10-11	C.J. Wilson	Jeremy Guthrie	TEX	BAL	TEX	52.038	47.962	47.463	TEX	3	0	3
05-29-2011	Zach Britton	Guillermo Moscoso	BAL	OAK	OAK	52.038	47.962	48.883	OAK	4	6	10
05-01-11	Zach Britton	Gavin Floyd	BAL	CHA	CHA	52.153	47.847	49.537	BAL	6	4	10
04-09-11	Colby Lewis	Zach Britton	TEX	BAL	TEX	52.267	47.733	47.733	BAL	0	5	5
06-20-2011	Jake Arrieta	Charlie Morton	BAL	PIT	PIT	52.267	47.733	47.098	BAL	8	3	11
05-15-2011	Jake Arrieta	Andy Sonnanstine	BAL	TB	TB	52.607	47.393	51.394	BAL	9	3	12
09-01-11	Luis Perez	Tommy Hunter	TOR	BAL	TOR	52.719	47.281	59.567	TOR	8	6	14
06-16-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Zach Stewart	BAL	TOR	TOR	52.941	47.059	52.646	BAL	4	3	7
07-20-2011	Andrew Miller	Jake Arrieta	BOS	BAL	BOS	52.941	47.059	46.426	BOS	4	0	4
04-03-11	Zach Britton	Wade Davis	BAL	TB	TB	53.052	46.948	51.84	BAL	5	1	6
08-08-11	John Danks	Jeremy Guthrie	CHA	BAL	CHA	53.162	46.838	53.606	CHA	7	6	13
06-24-2011	Edinson Volquez	Chris Jakubauskas	CIN	BAL	CIN	53.162	46.838	46.704	BAL	4	5	9
08-03-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Luke Hochevar	BAL	KC	KC	53.38	46.62	52.023	KC	2	6	8
06-04-11	Ricky Romero	Jake Arrieta	TOR	BAL	TOR	53.38	46.62	54.156	BAL	3	5	8
08-31-2011	Henderson Alvarez	Jo-Jo Reyes	TOR	BAL	TOR	53.38	46.62	58.995	TOR	13	0	13
05-08-11	Wade Davis	Brad Bergesen	TB	BAL	TB	53.704	46.296	53.935	TB	5	3	8
08-11-11	Mark Buehrle	Chris Tillman	CHA	BAL	CHA	53.811	46.189	54.979	CHA	6	3	9
04-24-2011	Freddy Garcia	Chris Tillman	NYA	BAL	NYA	53.811	46.189	49.303	NYA	6	3	9
06-17-2011	Zach Britton	Jason Marquis	BAL	WAS	WAS	53.917	46.083	44.249	WAS	4	8	12
05-03-11	Brad Bergesen	Jeff Francis	BAL	KC	KC	54.128	45.872	52.588	KC	5	6	11
09-12-11	Jeff Niemann	Zach Britton	TB	BAL	TB	54.233	45.767	59.484	TB	5	2	7
08-02-11	Alfredo Simon	Bruce Chen	BAL	KC	KC	54.442	45.558	52.381	BAL	8	2	10
06-10-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Jake Arrieta	TB	BAL	TB	54.649	45.351	48.473	BAL	0	7	7
08-28-2011	Ivan Nova	Brian Matusz	NYA	BAL	NYA	54.649	45.351	44.167	NYA	8	3	11
08-10-11	Phil Humber	Tommy Hunter	CHA	BAL	CHA	54.853	45.147	51.38	BAL	4	6	10
07-18-2011	Tim Wakefield	Brad Bergesen	BOS	BAL	BOS	54.853	45.147	47.964	BOS	15	10	25
08-24-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Kevin Slowey	BAL	MIN	MIN	54.853	45.147	45.183	BAL	6	1	7
06-11-11	David Price	Jeremy Guthrie	TB	BAL	TB	54.955	45.045	43.855	TB	7	5	12
04-30-2011	Chris Tillman	Phil Humber	BAL	CHA	CHA	54.955	45.045	54.411	BAL	6	2	8
08-13-2011	Max Scherzer	Jeremy Guthrie	DET	BAL	DET	55.056	44.944	47.774	DET	6	5	11
04-26-2011	Clay Buchholz	Zach Britton	BOS	BAL	BOS	55.257	44.743	57.518	BAL	1	4	5
05-11-11	Felx Hernandez	Chris Tillman	SEA	BAL	SEA	55.457	44.543	51.994	BAL	2	4	6
04-17-2011	Brad Bergesen	Fausto Carmona	BAL	CLE	CLE	55.654	44.346	52.698	CLE	2	4	6
06-30-2011	Jaime Garcia	Brian Matusz	STL	BAL	STL	55.85	44.15	46.567	STL	9	6	15
08-04-11	Zach Britton	Jeff Francis	BAL	KC	KC	56.044	43.956	49.528	KC	4	9	13
04-06-11	Justin Verlander	Brad Bergesen	DET	BAL	DET	56.14	43.86	46.909	DET	7	3	10
05-31-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Erik Bedard	BAL	SEA	SEA	56.427	43.573	47.807	SEA	2	3	5
08-09-11	Gavin Floyd	Jo-Jo Reyes	CHA	BAL	CHA	56.616	43.384	54.234	CHA	4	3	7
06-19-2011	Chris Jakubauskas	Tom Gorzelanny	BAL	WAS	WAS	56.616	43.384	42.502	BAL	7	4	11
08-20-2011	Tommy Hunter	Joel Pineiro	BAL	LAA	LAA	56.616	43.384	52.339	LAA	8	9	17
08-06-11	Brandon Morrow	Chris Tillman	TOR	BAL	TOR	56.803	43.197	49.191	BAL	2	6	8
06-29-2011	Chris Carpenter	Chris Jakubauskas	STL	BAL	STL	56.803	43.197	50.86	STL	5	1	6
08-22-2011	Zach Britton	Carl Pavano	BAL	MIN	MIN	56.989	43.011	48.979	BAL	4	1	5
05-28-2011	Brad Bergesen	Josh Outman	BAL	OAK	OAK	57.173	42.827	47.133	OAK	2	4	6
08-16-2011	Brian Matusz	Guillermo Moscoso	BAL	OAK	OAK	57.173	42.827	46.628	OAK	3	4	7
09-14-2011	Wade Davis	Jeremy Guthrie	TB	BAL	TB	57.173	42.827	53.913	BAL	2	6	8
08-07-11	Ricky Romero	Alfredo Simon	TOR	BAL	TOR	57.447	42.553	51.046	TOR	7	2	9
07-30-2011	Zach Britton	Ivan Nova	BAL	NYA	NYA	57.537	42.463	42.41	NYA	3	17	20
08-14-2011	Doug Fister	Jo-Jo Reyes	DET	BAL	DET	57.895	42.105	43.115	BAL	5	8	13
05-13-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Jeremy Hellickson	BAL	TB	TB	58.246	41.754	48.947	TB	0	3	3
08-23-2011	Alfredo Simon	Brian Duensing	BAL	MIN	MIN	58.333	41.667	45.974	BAL	8	1	9
09-17-2011	Ervin Santana	Zach Britton	LAA	BAL	LAA	58.333	41.667	56.34	BAL	2	6	8
09-09-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Brett Cecil	BAL	TOR	TOR	58.592	41.408	47.414	BAL	2	0	2
08-21-2011	Brian Matusz	Jerome Williams	BAL	LAA	LAA	58.592	41.408	50.361	LAA	1	7	8
06-14-2011	Chris Jakubauskas	Carlos Villanueva	BAL	TOR	TOR	58.932	41.068	50.31	TOR	5	6	11
09-22-2011	Zach Britton	Jacob Turner	BAL	DET	DET	59.1	40.9	45.98	BAL	6	5	11
06-18-2011	Brian Matusz	Jordan Zimmerman	BAL	WAS	WAS	59.184	40.816	35.337	WAS	2	4	6
04-27-2011	Josh Beckett	Jeremy Guthrie	BOS	BAL	BOS	59.267	40.733	49.053	BAL	4	5	9
05-14-2011	Brad Bergesen	Wade Davis	BAL	TB	TB	59.267	40.733	47.9	BAL	6	0	6
04-29-2011	Jake Arrieta	John Danks	BAL	CHA	CHA	59.432	40.568	47.394	BAL	10	4	14
07-03-11	Zach Britton	Brandon Beachy	BAL	ATL	ATL	59.596	40.404	50.603	BAL	5	4	9
07-28-2011	Brad Bergesen	Carlos Villanueva	BAL	TOR	TOR	59.759	40.241	45.16	TOR	5	8	13
08-26-2011	A.J. Burnett	Tommy Hunter	NYA	BAL	NYA	59.759	40.241	49.058	BAL	5	12	17
08-29-2011	Freddy Garcia	Jeremy Guthrie	NYA	BAL	NYA	59.759	40.241	40.195	NYA	3	2	5
08-17-2011	Alfredo Simon	Brandon McCarthy	BAL	OAK	OAK	59.92	40.08	40.37	OAK	5	6	11
09-25-2011	Brian Matusz	Brad Penny	BAL	DET	DET	60	40	44.044	DET	6	10	16
07-07-11	Jake Arrieta	Andrew Miller	BAL	BOS	BOS	60.08	39.92	41.191	BOS	4	10	14
06-15-2011	Jake Arrieta	Ricky Romero	BAL	TOR	TOR	60.239	39.761	47.083	TOR	1	4	5
09-11-11	Tommy Hunter	Dustin McGowan	BAL	TOR	TOR	60.552	39.448	47.539	TOR	5	6	11
08-25-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Francisco Liriano	BAL	MIN	MIN	60.707	39.293	44.46	BAL	6	1	7
06-01-11	Brian Matusz	Michael Pineda	BAL	SEA	SEA	60.861	39.139	40.974	BAL	2	1	3
09-27-2011	Erik Bedard	Zach Britton	BOS	BAL	BOS	61.165	38.835	47.314	BOS	8	7	15
07-10-11	Mitch Atkins	Kyle Weiland	BAL	BOS	BOS	61.24	38.76	36.415	BOS	6	8	14
05-27-2011	Chris Tillman	Gio Gonzalez	BAL	OAK	OAK	61.315	38.685	38.845	OAK	2	6	8
07-27-2011	Alfredo Simon	Ricky Romero	BAL	TOR	TOR	61.39	38.61	46.704	TOR	0	3	3
08-15-2011	Tommy Hunter	Gio Gonzalez	BAL	OAK	OAK	61.538	38.462	40.404	BAL	6	2	8
09-19-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Kyle Weiland	BAL	BOS	BOS	61.686	38.314	38.94	BAL	6	5	11
07-09-11	Alfredo Simon	John Lackey	BAL	BOS	BOS	61.759	38.241	38.119	BOS	0	4	4
07-05-11	Mitch Atkins	Matt Harrison	BAL	TEX	TEX	61.905	38.095	38.077	TEX	2	4	6
07-01-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Jair Jurrjens	BAL	ATL	ATL	62.049	37.951	46.094	ATL	0	4	4
09-03-11	Alfredo Simon	Wade Davis	BAL	TB	TB	62.264	37.736	45.273	TB	3	6	9
09-23-2011	Alfredo Simon	Rick Porcello	BAL	DET	DET	62.264	37.736	39.84	DET	3	4	7
09-18-2011	Jered Weaver	Alfredo Simon	LAA	BAL	LAA	62.406	37.594	48.79	LAA	11	2	13
04-23-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brad Bergesen	NYA	BAL	NYA	62.547	37.453	36.43	NYA	15	3	18
07-02-11	Jake Arrieta	Tim Hudson	BAL	ATL	ATL	62.617	37.383	43.448	ATL	4	5	9
04-13-2011	Chris Tillman	A.J. Burnett	BAL	NYA	NYA	62.756	37.244	41.614	NYA	4	7	11
09-10-11	Rick VandenHurk	Henderson Alvarez	BAL	TOR	TOR	62.894	37.106	47.008	TOR	4	5	9
04-28-2011	Jon Lester	Brad Bergesen	BOS	BAL	BOS	63.303	36.697	39.291	BOS	6	2	8
05-16-2011	Chris Tillman	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BAL	BOS	BOS	63.303	36.697	42.235	BOS	7	8	15
07-26-2011	Jake Arrieta	Brandon Morrow	BAL	TOR	TOR	63.303	36.697	39.221	BAL	12	4	16
04-02-11	Chris Tillman	James Shields	BAL	TB	TB	63.504	36.496	47.757	BAL	3	1	4
09-04-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Jeremy Hellickson	BAL	TB	TB	63.57	36.43	43.966	TB	1	8	9
05-19-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brad Bergesen	NYA	BAL	NYA	63.702	36.298	37.069	NYA	13	2	15
09-16-2011	Dan Haren	Tommy Hunter	LAA	BAL	LAA	63.702	36.298	45.326	BAL	3	8	11
07-06-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Alexi Ogando	BAL	TEX	TEX	63.834	36.166	35.328	TEX	5	13	18
04-14-2011	Jake Arrieta	Phil Hughes	BAL	NYA	NYA	63.899	36.101	40.614	NYA	5	6	11
04-01-11	Jeremy Guthrie	David Price	BAL	TB	TB	64.222	35.778	44.938	BAL	4	1	5
07-30-2011	Chris Tillman	Bartolo Colon	BAL	NYA	NYA	64.286	35.714	35.719	NYA	3	8	11
09-07-11	Zach Britton	A.J. Burnett	BAL	NYA	NYA	64.851	35.149	40.355	BAL	5	4	9
07-31-2011	Jake Arrieta	Freddy Garcia	BAL	NYA	NYA	65.096	34.904	31.667	NYA	2	4	6
07-04-11	Chris Jakubauskas	Colby Lewis	BAL	TEX	TEX	65.157	34.843	42.339	TEX	4	13	17
07-29-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	A.J. Burnett	BAL	NYA	NYA	65.217	34.783	39.463	BAL	4	2	6
09-28-2011	Jon Lester	Alfredo Simon	BOS	BAL	BOS	66.102	33.898	39.257	BAL	3	4	7
09-08-11	Ivan Nova	Alfredo Simon	NYA	BAL	NYA	66.667	33.333	40.915	BAL	4	5	9
07-08-11	Zach Britton	Josh Beckett	BAL	BOS	BOS	66.997	33.003	40.157	BOS	3	10	13
09-02-11	Zach Britton	David Price	BAL	TB	TB	67.213	32.787	43.86	BAL	3	2	5
09-13-2011	David Price	Alfredo Simon	TB	BAL	TB	67.638	32.362	45.692	BAL	2	4	6
09-26-2011	Josh Beckett	Tommy Hunter	BOS	BAL	BOS	67.742	32.258	43.022	BAL	3	6	9
09-19-2011	Brian Matusz	John Lackey	BAL	BOS	BOS	68.992	31.008	37.3	BOS	9	18	27
09-06-11	Tommy Hunter	Phil Hughes	BAL	NYA	NYA	69.231	30.769	35.271	NYA	3	5	8
08-19-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Dan Haren	BAL	LAA	LAA	69.231	30.769	40.025	LAA	3	8	11
09-20-2011	Rick VandenHurk	Erik Bedard	BAL	BOS	BOS	69.231	30.769	29.59	BAL	7	5	12
09-05-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Freddy Garcia	BAL	NYA	NYA	70.588	29.412	29.91	NYA	10	11	21
09-21-2011	Tommy Hunter	Josh Beckett	BAL	BOS	BOS	70.803	29.197	34.72	BAL	6	4	10
09-24-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Justin Verlander	BAL	DET	DET	71.098	28.902	33.15	BAL	6	5	11

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Comments

no need to remind us :(

Tommy hunter still sucks!

by Steve. on Nov 15, 2011 1:34 PM EST reply actions

It's kind of amazing there were any games all year where the O's were 63.3% favored to win ahead of time.

Although it looks like the 20 most favored games for the O’s were all home games, so I guess that counts for a lot to oddsmakers and simulations, even for bad teams.

If I’m reading this right, the Orioles were not favored to win even a single game after July 24. That’s probably about right.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Nov 15, 2011 5:11 PM EST reply actions

HFA

has a swing of around 9.5% to 10% on the win expectancy (away vs home). Let’s say you had a home game that the Orioles were 60% favorites to win. If you were to somehow magically move the game to the other team’s park it would be right around a 50/50 toss up game.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 15, 2011 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

These odds had the Red Sox at a 66.102% chance to win on the night of September 28.

That is all.

by ahoque24 on Nov 15, 2011 5:48 PM EST reply actions

Crushing dreams and getting coaches and GMs fired like it ain’t no big thing.

by Drubert90 on Nov 30, 2011 3:38 AM EST up reply actions

I’m interested in how your sim works. I’m new here, so if you’ve explained it in an earlier post, my apologies.

I’ve cooked up a sim myself using Excel, although it has limited capabilities. It takes into account L-R splits for home and away, and determines the outcomes based on the log5 method. Baserunners are moved based on the outcome of the AB based on what happened during the season. If there’s not enough data (less then 25 instances), then team tendencies are used. Pinch-hitters and relievers are used based on game situation and platoon match-up.

The problem with it is it takes my aging computer about 3.5 hours to run one season, so getting a large enough sample to get concrete results can be cumbersome. I did run 100 sims of the 1977 American League, and it showed the Yanks winning the East about 70% of the time (they edged the Sox and the Os in the real season- BAL won around 5% of the time) and the Rangers won the West most the time (still trying to figure out how- the Royals beat them by 8 games that year). It showed the variance in wins for most teams around 7 games, so the difference between a mediocre 80 win season and a solid 90 win season could easily be explained by just a simple roll of the dice.

Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, BALTIMORE!!!

by goldomatic on Nov 16, 2011 12:03 AM EST reply actions

Mine is written in C, so it is much faster than that. I simulate each game 100K times, and I can rip through a schedule of 15 daily games in 5-10 minutes. If Guthrie is pitching maybe it takes longer. :)

Those are all good things to have in your sim. Might want to add in defense, an tiring function for your starting pitchers along with the most important thing some good projections. If you are just going back and playing old seasons with already known data then it is much easier to match actual results. The hard part is simulating a game that hasn’t already occurred.

But you’ve got a nice little toy there.

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by Xeifrank on Nov 16, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions