Let's start out with what each team will put on the table:
Now let's break it down. First we start with Paxton. To quote John Sickels from earlier this year, "There have been a few rumbles that Paxton could be promoted for September, but it seems more likely that he'll be a candidate for 2012. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and profiles as a number two starter if he continues to progress with his command" Paxton is a big lefty with above average velocity, good breaking stuff, and while his command is scouted as spotty it has been just fine in pro ball thus far. He is 23 years old and just appeared in the Futures game. Given the immediacy of his call up and his success in pro ball I would say his trade value is high.
Next, Blake Beavan, a 22 year old right handed starter who came to Seattle in the Cliff Lee deal. A 2007 first round draft pick, Beavan has met with average success in the minors and had a short 2011 cup of coffee. That short MLB appearance was once again average, 1.3 WAR and 90 ERA+, so maybe slightly below average. Was ranked 16th in the Mariners system by Sickles this year, but would probably be a solid 4th starter for a few years in the O's rotation. Trade value, medium.
Taijuan Walker. Tall righthander who was drafted 43rd overall in 2010. Was dominante last year in single-A. Described by Sickels as an "elite pitching prospect." Good strikeout to walk ratio in A ball and he is a strikeout and ground out pitcher which is huge if he is going to play in Camden Yards. Trade value, very high.
Shawn Kelley. Bullpen filler, 27 years old. Low salary guy, worth a shot. Trade value, minimal.
So in total the Mariners give up two highly valued pitchers and two decent pitchers. Now for what the Orioles give up.
J.J. Hardy. Orioles recently signed him to a long term deal, but with Manny Machado waiting in the wings and Hardy coming off of a career year this might be the best chance to deal him. The Mariners have no one to play shortstop now and they don't know when Nick Franklin will be ready. They would love to have a good SS to compliment Liddi at 3rd and Ackley at 2nd. Giving them Hardy would allow them to have a real infield. Trade value, medium.
Nolan Reimold. Will probably end up being an above average outfielder at best, but would easily have the DH spot if he were with Seattle. At the very least he could platoon with Trayvon Robinson in LF, if not start the year taking all the at-bats in LF. Trade value, medium.
Jake Arrieta. Unproven at the MLB level. Potential for innings and medium success at Safeco. Gives the Mariners some replacement at pitching depth. Trade value, Minimal.
Luke Scott. Lefty power hitter. Sign him, trade him to Seattle. Could be a 20 HR guy as a platoon in Safeco. Salary and baggage make him unattractive though. Trade value, zero.
LJ Hoes. I don't really feel like breaking him down, because that has been done a million times on this site, literally. Anyway, the Mariners need outfield depth and Hoes has played more MiLB games in LF than at 2B. Also, speed and contact make him a good fit for Safeco. Trade value, medium.
Jonathon Schoop. After thinking for a while it was clear the O's would have to give up another piece in this deal, although I was tempted to throw in Markakis or Jones or Reynolds, I decided to go with Schoop. Another guy who is mentioned a lot on CC, decent bat and can play 3 IF positions. Gives the Mariners much needed depth on the left side of the field. Would allow them to back up Liddi if he doesn't work out or flip Hardy at the deadline to a team in need. Trade value, medium.
In the end this deal allows the O's to bring in 3 solid starters while giving away hitting depth. It is borderline as to whether or not it would be a good deal for the M's to take. I was considering building a Markakis plus others for Pineda deal, but decided not to. I for one really like this deal. It gets us back to growing the arms and buying the bats. We can always sign a LF to replace Noldy, but getting 2 potentially great starters is going to be much harder. What do you guys think of it? Take the poll, tell me your thoughts.