Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Trent Richardson Interviews Fellow Brown Brandon Weeden

29 Trades for 29 Teams: Boston Red Sox

Even after a disappointing end to the season and blowing up the front office, the Red Sox, hereafter known as Pink Hat Nation (PHN), know that they still have what it takes to reach the playoffs, especially with the expanded wildcard. But they do have some missing pieces, pieces that the O's can fill nicely. Let's see what we can do.

The most glaring hole on PHN's team last year was the lack of starting depth. Apart from a healthy and productive duo in Lester and Beckett the rest of the rotation was either bad, injured or inconsistent. Even Beckett is inconsistent between seasons and the PHN have to worry that he will keep on with his pattern of having off-years in even numbered seasons. Right now the rotation consists of Lester, Dice-K, Beckett, Bucholz and Miller. Miller and Dice-K are not good or consistent enough to be penciled in if there is another option. Enter Jeremy Guthrie, stage right.

Guts has been discussed among the SB Nation blog Over the Monster as a possible trade target and I agree. He would fit in perfectly in the #4 slot, giving the PHN one of the strongest #4's in the majors. The Sox have a few top pitching prospects on their way to the majors, but with the PHN in constant "win now" mode, they will probably be looking to bridge the gap and Guts is the perfect candidate to fill that hole.

Star-divide

There is also a hole is in the lineup, specifically right field. Ryan Kalish isn't ready for the show and Josh Reddick is better suited as a fourth OF. My first inclination was to package Markakis with Guthrie in order to dump some salary, but on second thought this trade should maximize the return in talent; the O's can keep eating Nicky's salary without too much trouble. Enter Adam Jones, stage left.

AJ's value is as high as it's ever has been and with 3 years left of team control he's more than just a rental. His arm and range would play well in right and he would be an option to back up Ellsbury if he gets injured. With the lineup strong from top to bottom AJ and his weak discipline would probably bat in the bottom third of the lineup but would still be a valuable addition if he builds on this year's success.

With such a valuable package the O's can expect to get a lot back from a strong Sox system. Obviously I will be looking mainly at pitching. Unfortunately (or fortunately, seeing as this is a pretend exercise), many of the PHN top pitching prospects had disappointing seasons and some have worrying injury history. We will take advantage of this to get RF Bryce Brentz (2011: High-A) and RHP Anthony Ranaudo (2011: High-A). Since these players are at the same level as Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado and Johnatan Schoop, they will be MLB ready (hopefully) at the same time, giving the O's a very strong core.

Anthony Ranaudo is a consensus top-10 Red Sox prospect. Fangraphs describes his arsenal as such:

He has a strong repertoire with a 90-95 mph fastball, a solid breaking ball and a good changeup. Ranaudo has a good pitcher’s frame and takes a long stride on the mound.

Although he has an injury history (a stress fracture in the elbow), if his body has healed well, he is considered as having the ceiling of a #1-2 starter.

Bryce Brentz is just outside the top 10 Red Sox prospects and the prediction is that he will become an above-average RF with good range and a strong arm. He is one of the (if not THE) top power hitter in the Red Sox system with the ability to hit for a good average as well.

This is a big trade for both teams, but one that I think is balanced and addresses both teams needs. The Red Sox have a system lacking in top-end talent but very deep in high potential players. Giving up these two won't cripple them and they will get some very good ML players to compete with in the coming seasons.

Since (in my mind) this is a close trade, I'd be more than happy to hear other opinions.

Poll
Who wins this trade (Adam Jones and Jeremy Guthrie for Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz)?
Baltimore
38 votes
Boston
110 votes
Neither. This is a balanced trade.
32 votes
Neither. This would never happen.
88 votes

268 votes | Poll has closed

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

Comment 25 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

There's a good chance that Reddick

is a better hitter than Jones in a year or two. And he’s a great defender in right.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." - EW

by ThreeRunHomer on Dec 11, 2011 7:43 AM EST reply actions  

Boston gets the better end of this deal, but I really don't see Baltimore even making this trade.

Doubt they’d trade their current starting CF with nobody else to put there.

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Dec 11, 2011 12:33 PM EST reply actions  

Like Stacey mentioned, there are FA CFs that can play well enough for the meantime.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 11, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm really surprised by the voting on this one.

2 years of AJ and one of Guts for two great prospects. What would even the trade? Leave Guts out of it? Just Guts? More prospects?

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 11, 2011 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

From what I've read

pundits are a bit down on Ranaudo due to inconsistency, and Brentz has serious question marks in re his swing translating to success as he progresses through the minors.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I admit i didn't do the most thourough research, just some basic lists and needs, expectations etc.

Can you quote your sources so I can check them out?

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 11, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Here is the most recent article regarding PHN prospects.

http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=492:boston-red-sox-2012-top-15-prospects&catid=18:articles&Itemid=11

Sickels just put up his prelim list. So it will be interesting to see what he has to say regarding Ranaudo and Brentz.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Really just just put it up.

Wish I had this one. It was hard finding post-2011 lists.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 12, 2011 1:12 AM EST up reply actions  

and this

http://www.soxprospects.com/

A little older, they don’t have Barnes factored into their list.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

and now that I take a 2nd look at it

I realize I am a doofus. Barnes is slotted in at #7. I completely missed that the first time I looked over that list.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

clear win for Baltimore

I doubt Boston makes this trade, but I think you could make them think about it, particularly given their impending luxury tax issues. Nice thinking.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 11, 2011 4:45 PM EST reply actions  

We should probably just throw in JJ Hardy and Markakis while we're at it.

I’m getting tired of people proposing Major League starters for prospects. I know we need building but AJ for both of those guys is still lopsided. Getting rid of our only proven pitcher as well? 29 trades is more like 29 ways to commit fan suicide.

by Bird of Pray on Dec 11, 2011 6:48 PM EST reply actions  

He didn't say AJ would be a back up for the Red Sox.

He’d be the starting right fielder and would play center when Jacoby Ellsbury can’t. Because Ellsbury happens to be good at defense in center and AJ isn’t.

Also, ideally we’d get to see more of this.
http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/BELLSBURY.gif

by ahoque24 on Dec 11, 2011 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Am I Just a Homer?

I can’t seem to like nearly any of these. 2 High-A players that have a while to go to potentially fall from grace is a terrifying return for AJ and Guts. My theory of my homerism is this- Although MacPhail didn’t get us anywhere, he had some freaking amazing trades. Of the major ones I can’t think of one we didn’t win (Bedard, Sherrill, Hardy, and reynolds is basically a wash b/c of his fielding)

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 8:09 PM EST reply actions  

With BUHDARD

we were trading a 29 year old pitcher who had just come off a 5th place finish in the Cy Young balloting. Guts is older and not as good as His Surliness. We aren’t going to get that type of return for him.
With Migi, we were trading a durable SS with one of the best bats in the game. Again, we aren’t going to get that type of return for Jonesy.
With Flat Breezy (Sherrill, for the uninitiated), well, the trade looked good at the time, but time has shown us that we didn’t really get anything of value out of it. More value than what Georgey would have given us? Perhaps, in the future.
With Hardy, he seems to have fallen to us due to injury concerns. I would imagine part of his performance last year was due to having a bit of a chip on his shoulder. Hopefully he doesn’t lose that with his new contract.
With Reynolds, we will be lucky if that trade ends up a wash from a WAR perspective. Hernandez was pretty good last year for the Snakes. Maybe moving Reynolds to 1st will help him retain some of the value his bat provides.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

wasn't trying to relate the trades

rather saying I got spoiled how a few turned out. And baseball isn’t a game you just decide to smack the shit out of the ball just cause you are pissed off. To assume he will try less because of what could easily be an underpay is just dumb. My point on the first comment is that trading Adam Jones away for players not even in AA yet seems entirely too risky. Pitchers, especially with one who already has injury concerns, wash out so quickly. Look at Tillman, or Matusz.
Especially with a team that has large problems in the scouting department, trusting your scouts to pick out the right High-A guys is wayyyy too risky. Would love older players who are better known even if you sacrifice some of the reward in a trade this large.

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

The problem with going after older, or more advanced players

is that the club that controls has a better idea of what they are capable of as well. And that club will rationally want a return more in line with whatever value they place on that player.
By targeting lower level players, you get to target a player with a higher ceiling, and you get to bring a player into your system and have them developed by your own personnel. I agree, that that has been a veritable game of Russian Roulette with our organization in the recent past. We are all hoping that Duquette & Buck will be fixing any problems that they see in our developmental program so that players we bring in going forward maximize their potential.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe then

They should shy away from the lower level players until they can evaluate what is going on with scouting/ development

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

This is actually a good idea.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 12, 2011 1:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Proposed Trade

A good trade for the Orioles would be Nick Markakis for Ryan Lavarnway. The Red Sox would get a right fielder while the Orioles would get a cost-efficient first baseman/backup catcher.

by Go U Birds! on Dec 11, 2011 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

Lavarnway would be an interesting guy to target.

His bat is legit good; glove legit bad. But I don’t see him having played any 1st. He looks to be a replica of Jesus Montero in the Yankees system. Still something this club could use.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Could be.

But they do have Saltalamachia (sp?) still, I believe. And reports of Lavarnway’s glove/defense are pretty bad. Hence the Montero comparison.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

He is better than Montero with the glove (who isn't?), but still needs time to work on it,

so they’re probably going to platoon the two of them to begin with.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 12, 2011 1:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

The SB Nation blog covering the Baltimore Orioles.

Please read our Community Guidelines

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Dscn6381_small
Oriole Birthday Mantra.
Small
On Being an Oriole Fan in Israel
Wieters_small
The O's and Early Bullpen Usage
Mlb_orioles_wieters_240_small
O-R-I-O-L-E-S! *NOT* Day-O!
Cc_small
Awesome Stuff

Recent FanPosts

Imagescalwmbnw_small
Brian Roberts story continues to unfold
Small
Okay, okay, I give! I'm sucked in!
4fgfgjfxe30x64uwibpb59rg9_small
Help with Baseball Statistics
Small
I have to ask...
091_small
Rooting for the Red Sox
4fgfgjfxe30x64uwibpb59rg9_small
Can we get a broadcasting coach or trainer for Mike Bordick?
Pbr_12_pack_small
Literary Lounge

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Yahoo_full_count

Official Sponsor of Camden Chat GameThreads

Tankeray_medium
Tankeray provided by dayzd toe


Bowser

Cc_small Stacey

Koopa Troopas

Baltimore_oriole_avatar_small zknower

P1030831_small 2632

Rainbowsmall_small duck

Esskay_small Eat More Esskay

Youppi-192_small Andrew_G

Goombas

Birdman_small birdman

Thumbnail_small j.q. higgins

Img_0927_small dfa

4840750964_54cdc24eef_small James F

091_small WestcoastO'sFan

2009_june22_philliekid3_small twistedlogic

Yoshi_small PaulFolk