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29 Trades for 29 Teams: Philadelphia Phillies Edition

Life has been pretty good for the Phillies of Philadelphia of late. 5 straight N.L. East titles. The best 1-2-3 pitching punch since the days of Maddux, Glavine, & Smoltz. An enviable core of homegrown infield talent. But the times, they are a-changing. The Braves may have the best collection of young pitching since, well, the Braves of the early 90's. With a shiny new ballpark and expectations of buku revenue flowing in, the Marlins are spending dinero like the proverbial drunken sailor. The Nats have a solid young core at the ML level already, and more than their fair share of minor league talent nearly ready to compliment it. And the Mets....well....they are a catastrophe at the moment. But they do have a well regarded G.M. in Sandy Alderson, so there's that.

My focus here is to make an offer to the Phillies which should help them fend off the barbarians at the gate of the N.L. East throne, and possibly help them bring another parade to Broad Street while their current window of opportunity is wide open.

Star-divide

The Phils have shown little hesitance over the past few years to trading their minor league prospects for major league talent. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (his first go around with the club), and Hunter Pence each required hefty hauls in minor league talent to be acquired. The Orioles have two players, in particular, who could help the Phils immediately: J.J. Hardy and Jeremy Guthrie.

The Phils have an opening at SS at the moment. It does look likely that they will resign Jimmy Rollins. However, Rollins is 33 years old, and wants a 3-4 year deal. Signing Rollins to a deal like this would likely only exacerbate future problems with the Phillies' payroll, which is already expanding at a rate on par with the Big Bang. Enter: J.J. Hardy. The New-Old J.J. is signed for the next three seasons (his age 29-31 years) for $7M/per, and will almost certainly outperform Rollins over that time frame.

Another area of need for the Phils is, surprisingly enough, in their rotation. While Halladay-Lee-Hamals is formidable, there are still two additional vacancies to be filled. Vance Worley pitched very well for them last year, and he will likely claim one of those spots. Roy Oswalt was cut loose earlier this off-season, so they have a need for a competent starter. Enter: Jeremy Guthrie. Poor Guts, pitching well every fifth day in relative anonymity for our lowly Orioles. He would slot in quite nicely in the 4 spot for the Phils. And if he was feeling chippy, he could even still bike to work every day (ok, maybe not. That would be nearly 200 miles round-trip).

So, that is quite a haul for the Phils. it would certainly secure their status as front-runners in the N.L. What say we take a gander at what lurks in their farm system, hmm?

Unfortunately, all those big name trades from the past few years have left the Phils cupboard a might bit barren. Some cobwebs, some dust, a can of corn, some sardines. But sometimes you can cook up a nice little meal out of nothing spectacular. One area where the Phils do seem to have some intriguing young bucks is pitching, which, coincidentally, happens to be an area of need for our beloved O's.

Prior to delving into an examination of potential minor league targets for acquisition, I should state the first player to be sent in return to the O's would be Joe Blanton. 'Ole Joe is saddling the Phils with an $8.5M deal for the '12 season. By taking on his contract the O's would be able to extract some additional value in prospects.

Now, onto the prospects. First up is a LHP named Jesse Biddle. Both Sickles and Baseball America rank him as the Phils #2 prospect. He sported a nice 8.4 K/9 rate over 133 IP in the SAL last year. He would be a very nice compliment to Dylan Bundy. Next up, Phillipe Aumont. The Phils acquired him from Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade. Also a consensus top-10 prospect, the RHP Aumont has maintained a 9.6 K/9 over four MiLB seasons. He would bolster the O's bullpen immediately, and could slot in as our future closer. No better way to build a quality bullpen than with cheap, cost-controlled talent, am I right? Finally, as an throw in for the salary relief provide by taking on Blanton, I'd like to see Austin Hyatt included. He's already 25, and only in AA so far. But he sports a nice 11 K/9 over three minor league seasons through the use of a fantastic change-up.

So, there you have it: J.J. Hardy and Jeremy Guthrie for Joe Blanton, Jesse Biddle, Phillipe Aumont, and Austin Hyatt. A nice influx of young pitching for the O's, and two players sure to help the Phils try and make it back to the World Series. What think you, Chatters?

Poll
Who gets the better of this proposed deal?
The O's
55 votes
The Phillies
45 votes
Even-Steven
22 votes
Is PBRmeASAP still drunk?
25 votes

147 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

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The only way this works is if Amaro completely forfeits the future.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 11, 2011 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Hasn't he already, though?

Those contracts, plus the past wheeling-and-dealing. I see them riding out this current wave and then in 3-4 years just accepting the fallout, hopefully with multiple World Series banners to soften the blow.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

That's why I put the word "completely" in there.

I also think they’re going to crash but I think that they have a strong enough farm (currently) to maintain their level by the MFY method. Superstar potential prospects stay, everyone else is trade bait with a light trigger finger. We’ve been waiting for the MFY to collapse for a long time and the Phillies also have a ton of money.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 11, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Seems like we would ge getting too much here.

Blanton and Guthrie have very similar levels of production, with maybe an edge to Blanton. So basically that’s a wash except for the Phillies getting salary relief for getting rid of Blanton. So, really the trade is salary relief and JJ Hardy for three of the Phillies best to better prospects. I think that’s too much to ask, especially given that the Phillies have an immediately available option to fill SS in Rollins without giving up any prospects. I see this deal happening for like one of the best prospects + PTBNL or two of the middle prospects. What do you think?

Mother, did it need to be so high.

by salvotion on Dec 11, 2011 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Blanton has been putrid the past few years.

I think Guts is a clear upgrade over him. The Phils other in-house option for the rotation would be Kyle Kendrick, who was acceptable in limited action last year, but seems to be better suited to be a long-man/spot starter.
And as I stated, the problem with Rollins is the almost certain declining production he will offer, while at a possibly higher $ than Hardy.
Granted, Biddle and Aumont are both highly regarded, while Hyatt is regarded, but not particularly highly. The Phils are awash in young pitching with potential talent. I tried to find some interesting OF players who could be included, but we already have our fair share of ‘toolsy’ guys who might not be able to hit.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

You make good points.

And Aumont isn’t that highly regarded anymore. He already had to be moved to relief because he wasn’t cutting it as a starter. And he’s still wild as heck.

I rate this trade idea the best of any presented so far.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." - EW

by ThreeRunHomer on Dec 11, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm going with still drunk.

One, fuck Joe Blanton. The Phils would trade him for a cup of coffee and a boston creme donut. Doubt they’ll cough up the farm either if they aren’t getting something superb in return.

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Dec 11, 2011 12:30 PM EST reply actions  

They've already coughed up most of the farm, though.

You can’t expect to keep acquiring the Halladay’s and Lee’s of the world when the farm system has already been razed.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Right.

So why cough up the remainder for next to nothing?

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Dec 11, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Guts and Hardy are not 'next to nothing'

They can each be quite valuable pieces to a team trying to win the World Series over the course of the next 2-3 years, which the Phillies will be.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

JJ Hardy

With the exorbitant contracts Reyes signed and Rollins likely will sign, the value of the Hardy deal could be pretty sweet. Consequently, I’m a little reluctant trading him without receiving a top flight prospect. I wonder if it makes more sense to deal Guthrie and Hardy separately? Biddle seems like a nice prospect, but I’m not all that impressed with Aumont. Blanton also seems unnecessary, or at least not a viable piece in a deal like this.

So I vote no. Sorry!

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Dec 11, 2011 2:31 PM EST reply actions  

I've been wondering something similar.

Should JJ, Guthrie, and AJ all be traded separately? I think you might be able to maximize returns that way, but what do I know, I haven’t even volunteered to participate in the 29 trades.

by ahoque24 on Dec 11, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I think this is correct

It strikes me that a lot of the proposed “29 trades” so far seem to suffer from “sim baseball syndrome” — the logic that says “okay, that’s not quite a good fit, so let’s have team A give up another guy… wait, that’s too much value, so have team B kick in another minor-leaguer…” and you’re left with an 11-team deal with Jim Johnson as the centerpiece.

In the real world, trades don’t happen this way. Clubs don’t send multiple major-leaguers out, and acquiring clubs don’t send back 6-10 minor-leaguers including their top 5 prospects.

I think the O’s might be able to pry loose a pair of interesting B/B+ guys for Guthrie, and possibly a star package for Jones. Hardy’s value strikes me as contingent on a team losing it’s shortstop — so, for example, if the Phillies get burned by Rollins, you might be able to get 3 prospects headlined by a B+ guy (or a single A-level guy) if they otherwise feel like they’re over the barrel.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 11, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh.

Would rather have Domonic Brown instead of Biddle and Blanton. Without checking, doesn’t Blanton have a super bloated contract? And I think Hardy has maybe more value than this. Yes we have him signed to 2014, when he is 32, but I dunno I could see him being here beyond that, At second if schoop is at third, or whatever, as Roberts comes off the books in 2013. My point being I think he is still at the age where I think he could contribute to a winning O’s team. Just hard to convince me that a player in his prime who hit 30 HR in 121 games last year at SS isn’t worth a more overwhelming haul.

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 7:50 PM EST reply actions  

Im a homer

Admittedly, but I feel like Brown’s value has sharply decreased, and he may be stuck at AAA for them again. If hardy puts around 3.5 WAR the next three years he has 20 million dollars in surplus value. Which is very possible. No idea if brown is worth that or not.

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Brown will likely slot right into the Phils OF along w/ Pence & Victorino

Although one of either Pence or Brown will have to move to LF. I don’t think either has played any LF previously. And Blanton’s contract expires after this upcoming season. The Phils wanted to move him last year, but were unable. But I am sure they would love the chance to shed the $8.5M due to him this season. All he will be doing for them this year is wearing a groove in the pine with his ass.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe I read too many whispers from MLBTR

But im pretty sure the GM said he will prob start the season at AAA again, presumably Mayberry has won his spot?

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Mayberry or Francisco then, if that is the case.

But I would imagine the Phils still view Brown as a long-term part of their OF plans.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

Han Ram is 28, and while he has been better, a healthy JJ is really a good walk rate behind him offensively, and he is better than him defensively. Staying healthy is obviously in question though.

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

If the O's are signing a 32 year old JJ Hardy to a contract extension

with Machado and Schoop ready to come up, then they are stupider than I imagined.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

color me an optimist!

Or maybe I just think they are stupider than you. Either way, now I am one sad panda…

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Dec 12, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

as long as we’re playing fantasy trading, I’d rather try to get Brown or Vance Worley, who was brilliant for about two months at the end of this past season

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.

by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 11, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Depends on the author thus far

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.

by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 12, 2011 8:55 AM EST up reply actions  

32 isn't that old?

And Machado at SS, Schoop at 3B/2B, leaves another position in the infield. Nothing wrong with another 2 years if he can stay moderately healthy in the next three. For Christ sake, the Cardinals had Furcal out there and won a WS. Yes, I know that they had a lot of better pieces. But if the Os actually make this club respectable in the next 2 years (doubtful), he wouldn’t be a bad resign at market value.

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 8:15 PM EST reply actions  

32, in baseball years, for your average player

is pretty clearly aligned with declining production. I’d rather the O’s look for someone younger at that time. Someone just entering, or in the midst of their prime years. But if Hardy is producing at the rate that he did this past season (unlikely) when he’s 31/32 then he’s going to want a big contract, which I would rather the O’s direct that money towards other means.

He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...

by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 11, 2011 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

also

can we stop pretending a .310 OBP is some kind of awesome season? Hardy had a good first half (.278/.338/.498) and then essentially didn’t draw a walk in August and September. On the plus side, he didn’t get hurt, but I think a lot of people are really overrating Hardy.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 11, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know how true that is

Over parts of 7 seasons, JJ Hardy has a career OPS of 756. The average OPS of SS in MLB last year was 695. He is due $7M a season for the next 3 seasons for his ages 28-30 seasons. Just a few days ago, the Cardinals signed Rafael Furcal to a 2 year deal worth $14M. Furcal is entering his age 34 season and his OPS over the last 3 seasons is 728.

I guess what I’m saying is that if he can stay healthy the Orioles have themselves a quality shortstop who should provide more value in terms of production than what they are paying for. Of course, the Orioles likely won’t be serious competitors over the length of his contract, but it seems apparent that he would net a top 50 and a top 150 prospect now, if not more than that.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Dec 11, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't really disagree with most of that

But when people are talking about re-signing J.J. Hardy in 2015, it’s clear that some people are drastically overrating him. You’ve pegged Hardy’s value as one B+ and one C+ prospect, and I think that’s about right.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 11, 2011 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

also

a 4.8 WAR season is pretty effin good all things considered, with less than 550 AB. WAR counts in wOBA and therefore OBP.

This year he would be a FA, but he is starting a 3 yr/22.5 million contract. Assuming we keep the same 5 million per win on the market, he needs 4.5 WAR over the contract to reach market value, or 1.5 per season. Three of the last 5 seasons he was right around 4.5 WAR, while the other 2 he was oft injured, putting up 4 between them.

Let’s say he produces 9 WAR over the next three seasons. I think that cuts down on his talent level suitably enough for his injuries. Thats 45 million dollars value, or 22.5 In surplus! I am pretty sure a contending team that will most likely overpay for a declining Rollins would love to have the 22.5 million dollars in surplus, not to mention he mostly likely represents an upgrade over Rollins.

by mdterps0325 on Dec 11, 2011 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I could see Hardy for Brown if Rollins signs elsewhere

That would be a huge win for the O’s, but the Phillies seem down on Brown and in any event are inclined to value certainty over upside.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

The Phillies are likely on the ebb side of their success cycle.

The team’s best players are aging or already old, almost all on the wrong side of 30. This puts them in position to either (1) do everything they can to win now and make the most out of the back end of the success cycle or (2) begin stockpiling young talent in preparation for an inevitable retooling or rebuild. If they choose option 1, then Brown can be had (it would give them a hole in the OF but that can be filled through FA). If they choose option 2, they keep Brown and the Phillies do not become a very good trade partner for us.

Mother, did it need to be so high.

by salvotion on Dec 12, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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