29 Trades with 29 Teams: Tampa Bay Rays
by tflach2 on Dec 12, 2011 12:08 PM EST
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PrintThe Rays have been able to do what the Orioles haven't: Develop young pitching into Major League talent. While there have been missteps (Dewon Brazelton and Wade Townsend come to mind), through sheer numbers of early round draft picks, they have had their share of successes, like 1st rounders David Price and Jeff Niemann and 3rd rounder Wade Davis. With the addition of later round diamonds in the rough (Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb in the 4th round; Matt Moore in the 8th; James Shields in the 16th!) they now have an abundance of quality starting pitching.
That is seven starting pitchers, each drafted and developed by the Rays who would right now probably be considered no worse than a #3 in the Orioles rotation. It is impressive. But we've come to plunder the Rays, not to praise them. Because, despite their ability to develop major league pitchers at a high rate, they have been less successful in developing and retaining impact bats. Desmond Jennings might explode in 2012, as he showed periods of brilliance in '11. But he also struggled down the stretch, with an OPS of .506 in September. It looks like the league made an adjustment, and we'll see if he is able to take the next step. But, assuming that he does (and I believe that he will), that leaves the Rays with a solid foundation at LF, CF, 3B, wherever they stick Zobrist and possibly RF if they decide that Matt Joyce is good enough to face left handed pitching on a consistent basis. Either way, they could really use a couple of bats, especially at 1B and DH, which would allow them to keep Zobrist at 2B. Kotchman and Damon are available, but they are old and the power is dwindling or non-existent, and both coming off decent years so they won't be cheap. They also will need relief help, this year and in the future, so I am adding a relief prospect to help sweeten the deal.
Since the Rays have locked up Moore through his FA1 year on a pretty sweet deal, I think he is off the table. Although he seems like kind of a jerk from tv interviews I've seen of him, I think that the best pitcher to go after would be Jeremy Hellickson. He is young and good. Which would be a great change from young and awful.
Here is how my trade would go down:
Orioles get:
- P Jeremy Hellickson
- OF Justin Ruggiano
Rays Get:
- 1B/DH Mark Reynolds
- OF/1B/DH Nolan Reimold
- P Clay Shrader
Obviously the Rays will get to decide if Nolan would be able to play 1B, or platoon with Joyce, or DH and have Reynolds play 1B. We would get 6 years of Hellickson in exchange for a couple of years of useless HR's from Reynolds, plus a 28 year old with a 2.4 career WAR and a relief prospect. I added Ruggiano to even up the 40 man on both teams, and so we can have a 4th outfielder since we traded away Reimold.
edit:
After getting a general feedback that I am giving up far too litte to pry Jeremy Hellickson away, I am going to go back in and make a few changes to my proposal. I really want pitching, and I want Hellickson, so I will up my offer significantly. It still might not be enough, but hopefully I won't be laughed out of the room.
Orioles get:
- P Jeremy Hellickson
- SS Reid Brignac
Rays Get:
- 1B Mark Reynolds
- SS JJ Hardy
- P Jim Johnson
- P Daniel Klein
- MI Jonathan Schoop
- Cash considerations
The Rays need offense, especially power bats, and relief pitching. They get our two best HR hitters and our best reliever, none of whom will be on the next good Orioles team. They get two of our top prospects, a RP who could very well graduate by the end of 2012 and a possible replacement for Hardy or Zobrist in a couple of years.
It does seem like a lot to give up. 3 of our best players and 2 top prospects for a SP. Kind of makes you wish some of our own SP prospects would work out every once in a while.
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Can we stop shitting on every suggestion please?
Of course we’re not gonna fleece Andrew Friedman in a trade. Part of the fun of this is the originality everyone is putting into their effort and what people would actually think is a decent trade, from the casual fan to the stat heads.
And maybe the Rays would do something like this, because their offense is simply not that great, and they have an assload of pitching prospects. I thought just by looking at their lineup preseason that it would be absolute dog shit last year. But of course, them being the Rays and all, they got successful years from improbable people. To name a few: journeymen Casey Kotchman, 3 months of All Star caliber offense from Joyce in the first half of the season, one month of MVP level offense from Desmond Jennings. It seemed like just enough people were clicking at one point or another to get them over the hump.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 12, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
respectfully
I’ve praised the suggestions that are sensible (Red Sox and Nationals come to mind).
I don’t think it’s helpful to say “hey, my idea is to get an ace-level pitcher in exchange for scraps.” If that offends you, I guess you can skip over my comments or lobby to have me banned or something, but I don’t think I’ve said anything particularly aggressive or unfair.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Understood, sorry for going OsFan on you
I see that you have agreed with a few. I would just prefer some more analysis (like below) rather than a snarky “Why would the Rays do this?”
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 12, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Like this...
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 12, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I thought for certain
that I was going to get rickrolled there.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
That's hilarious I didn't know what that was until now
And it’s safe to say I will be rickrolling someone in the near future.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 12, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
fair enough
that’s why I tried to spell it out below, and I get that I’ve been negative on the last few. I’m trying to be constructive — note that on some of the other threads I’ve proposed friendly repairs.
Here, it’s sort of hard to do that. I wonder what Andrew Friedman would say if offered Matt Wieters for Jeremy Hellickson.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Because they need to score more runs to have a chance to win the WS.
They have too many pitchers and not enough hitters. Reynolds’ oWAR was 3.0 last year, and Reimold’s was 1.3 in 300 PA. They combined to hit 50 HRs, while the Rays hit 172 as a team.
The Rays are shopping their pitching for bats, I’m not making that up. Maybe it would take a little more than this to pry Hellickson, but we don’t have anything better at the ML level to offer. I thought about making the trade for Wade Davis, but I don’t really think he’s going to be good. It’s no fun to outline a trade for Wade Davis.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
Jeremy Hellickson was worth 4.2 fWAR all by himself!
And he’s 24, and under team control for another five seasons.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
I would assume Hellickson is off limits
And if he weren’t it would take a much larger package to get him. The guy just won the ROY, posting a sub-3 ERA in the AL East. I think you’d be able to get Wade Davis with this kind of deal, and maybe a low level minor league pitcher with some upside.
Yeah, you are probably right, we would probably need to give more to get Hellickson, for starters
we probably would have to add cash for Mark Reynolds contract. I didn’t realize that it was $8M for this coming season. And maybe add Jim Johnson.
I thought about this trade for Matt Moore when I signed up for the Rays and they were talking about trading pitching for bats. Once they signed him long-term, I changed it to Hellickson. I wanted the Orioles to get young pitching under control for a while in exchange for bats to make a playoff run this year for the Rays.
I think we would be giving up too much for Wade Davis with this trade. He doesn’t strike out many guys and gives up too many hits. I don’t think that I want to give up a bunch for him.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
a bit more analysis
You’re proposing to trade the following players:
1. Mark Reynolds, signed for $7.5MM in 2011 with an $11MM (!) option in 2013 ($500K buyout). That 2013 season isn’t happening, so Reynolds is essentially an $8MM player with one year of team control. I think it’s possible he becomes a useful option at 1B, but so far he’s been an immovable object in the field.
2. Nolan Reimold is a 28-year-old fourth OF who can’t play 1B. That’s of zero value.
3. Clay Schrader is an A-ball relief prospect.
This is just woefully lopsided.
I am in total agreement
I still think Reimold could end up being good enough to play every day, but right now we don’t have any proof of that, and they’re not gonna trade away Hellickson for a guy who MIGHT be good enough to be an every day player. Reynolds is way too expensive for them.
Last year the Rays tried to get Nolan Reimold for Jason Bartlett, that’s how good they think he is.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to get a player like Hellickson. But the Rays didn’t get to where they are with trades like this.
Reimold
I think this is the quintessential guy that you play when you’re a non-contending team; if he racks up 600 ABs and hits .280/.340/.480 (which seems possible), his trade value will go through the roof. If it turns out that Reimold can’t play every day, well, all you’ve lost in playing him is opportunity.
It’s also why I would play Ryan Adams if I were the O’s. And Matt Angle, frankly.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Reimold is a guy who I think we Orioles fan's latch onto because we need some hope
but that the rest of the league looks at as a 28 year old wash out with occasional glimpses of something but not much more than any 4A 28 year old most teams have. .
I actually think Justin Ruggiano is a pretty good comp
their skill set is a little different; Reimold has a touch more power, and Ruggiano has more speed and defense. But I would say they’re of roughly equal value.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
I think Moldy has *some* trade value
Given that he is paid the league minimum and might be a league average corner outfield, there is definitely value in that. Heck, not having to watch Jay Payton has value. Is it worth a package for Hellickson? No. But that doesn’t mean he is without value.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Acquiring Hellickson would require a much more aggressive deal by the Orioles.
Let me put it this way, I’m not sure the Rays would trade Hellickson for Wieters straight-up. But if they would, would you trade Wieters for Reynolds, Reimold, and PTBNL?
I think that to acquire Hellickson would require something like Hardy, Reynolds, and Jones along with possibly Schoop and Bundy the Lesser.
I was trying to tailor the trade for what the Rays need to win the WS this year.
Obviously the general sentiment is that I am not giving up enough. This is definitely a harder exercise than it appears. Especially when you think you balanced it out pretty good and everyone lets you know that you didn’t.
I might play around with this a little more and then add an edit to the bottom with a new proposal. I am also rescinding my application for all front office positions, pending further notification.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
suggestions
So, seriously, I’m sorry if I came off overly harsh. It’s easy to be snarky online, and I hadn’t meant to come off like a jerk.
I think there are interesting arguments for the following:
1. Matt Wieters for Jeremy Hellickson
2. Mark Reynolds for Wade Davis
3. J.J. Hardy for Reid Brignac, Chris Archer, and Enny Romero
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Not that it would likely help the next O's team that is ready for contention
but what if the target for acquisition were James Shields? He’s due to become relatively expensive by Rays standards, and moving him would open up a slot in the rotation for Moore or Cobb.
He praised my creativity, though he spoke sarcastically...
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 12, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
interesting
here’s what I’ve heard about Shields:
1. The Rays asked for Joakim Soria, Wil Myers, and Christian Colon from the Royals for Shields. Now, that’s an ask, and who knows where they would ultimately settle.
2. The Rays have turned down Logan Morrison from the Marlins for Jamie Shields. That’s an offer, so it tells you that the Rays value Shields more than one young, cost-controlled bat with All-Star upside.
3. The Rays have been linked to the Reds, with the suspicion that they have turned down Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal (a top 50 prospct and a top 100 prospect) for Shields but are asking for Devin Mesoraco instead of Grandal, which the Reds aren’t willing to do.
So I’d say that a competitive offer for Shields would be something equivalent to Alonso/Mesoraco. Hard to find O’s pieces that fit that profile — is that Machado and Schoop? — and it would sort of derail the O’s rebuilding plans to part with 2 of their top 3 prospects.
Shields for Wieters would be interesting; Shields is signed to a below-market deal through 2014, and Wieters is under team control through 2015, so it’s an extra year of control versus the cost-savings of getting a $20MM pitcher for an average of $9.3MM over the next 3 years.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
This is the big problem with trading for Hellickson.
Yes, the Rays have an embarassment of riches in terms of pitching talent. But the talent the Rays tend to move is MLB talent that’s about to get expensive or is already expensive. Thus, the two candidates for the Rays right now are Price and Shields, with Shields the easy front-runner in that category. As AndrewTorrez states above, the Rays’ asking price for Shields so far has been astronomical. I would imagine that Hellickson, who just made a strong debut in MLB and with many more years of team control, would come at an even higher price, if he is made available at all.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
If you play around with it
think about changing the target from Hellickson to Davis or Niemann. Even then you’ll have to adjust the O’s side of the trade too.
The Rays don’t need outfielders. Jennings, Upton and Joyce/Guyer are the likely starters and they’re all better than what the O’s have in the outfield. What Tampa needs are SS, C, 1B and DH. And count on throwing cash their way too, although they aren’t as poor as people here think (they could afford Reynolds if they thought he was good … but they always go with a good defensive 1B so I doubt they want him.)
Best of luck.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." - EW
by ThreeRunHomer on Dec 12, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
You took on maybe THE hardest assignment of this whole exercise
The Rays have 1) a brilliant front office that is 2) not at all desperate to "win now’ with veteran players, 3) their farm system is already stacked and 4) they wouldn’t want to strengthen a divisional rival.
What’s cool about choosing them is that their team has so much talent in the minors that you could come up with n! different trades that we could make with them.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 12, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
As a general comment
I’ve noticed that everyone is using Moldy as trade bait. I do not think he has much trade value and his addition to any package of players would be minimum. It was only a year ago and that Moldy could bring Jason Barlett, a mediocre SS with year of control left. I doubt his trade value has increased in the last year. Moldy is type of guy a lot of teams would love to take a chance on as a waiver wire pick up or “take my extra trash” type of trade. But I don’t think he could be used as a viable piece, however small, in a trade for a good young player like Hellickson. .
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I think we got the waiver claim fee.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 12, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
He hasn't pitched for an MLB club since 2009.
So I don’t think we need to pay a waiver claim fee. He’s free! Let’s get Jamie Walker, Danny Baez, and put the whole band back together.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Rays non-tender Andy Sonnanstine
sort of a Bob Milacki-type; had a productive 2008, was seriously unlucky in terms of BABIP as a starter in 2009, and has been nondescript in long relief ever since. He threw a pitch to Matt Wieters in September that I don’t think has landed yet.
That being said, he’s exactly the sort of guy the Orioles should sign for SP depth. Having a guy like Sonnanstine around means you can trade Guthrie and not have to toss, say, Bobby Bundy to the wolves too soon.
Like
the trade for both sides. Doubt it happens though; Big moves like this rarely happen.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 13, 2011 2:15 AM EST reply actions
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