Transaction Scorecard: O's Sign IFA Tsuyoshi Wada

by j.q. higgins on Dec 13, 2011 10:36 PM EST in Commentary & Analysis

Okay folks, as you heard earlier, the Orioles have signed LHP Tsuyoshi Wada to a 2 year deal with a an option for a third year. With a few hours to mull things over, local and national baseball press seems fairly upbeat on Dan Duquette's latest international excursion.

Craig Calcaterra, Hardball Talk: The deal is for two year and $8.15 million. Even if he’s not much more than serviceable, that’s a good deal for the O’s.

Keith Law, Keith Law Industries: Grade 40 fastball in the AL East? No thanks.

Don Olsen, Orioles Nation: I do think the guy can pitch effectively in the majors, but his exposure may have to be limited. I fear the same way as I did with Koji.

Eno Sarris, Fangraphs: We haven’t quite figured out our translations for the Japanese league, and the new ball just put a wrench in that process. But when you spend $8.1 million over two years (with a team option to boot), and have a pitcher that could be anything from a LOOGY to a serviceable starter, you’ve covered your bases. This deal is more likely to be a boon than a bane in Baltimore.

Daniel Moroz, Camden Crazies: Relatively low risk, low-to-medium return type move, though it does make the Dana Eveland trade look even worse (how many soft-tossing starters does one team need in the AL East?). It is nice to see the team going after international players though, and maybe if Wada has some success the O's can turn him into a younger player with some upside at the trade-deadline.

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You can sign a recent NPB MVP for 2/$8?

Let’s hear it for the international market!

by CoachOfEarl on Dec 13, 2011 10:57 PM EST reply actions

Flip him?

If he has success you can trade him at the deadline? What kind of analysis is that?

What is it with these guys who go in for roster churning? Excellent way to stay in last place for several more years.

If he has success you KEEP him.

by Ampontan on Dec 13, 2011 11:22 PM EST reply actions

I think Moroz meant that they should flip him if he's just decent.

The O’s don’t have enough talent to compete now, and one league-average starter isn’t going to change that.

by SeanP on Dec 14, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

Competing

There’s a lot of territory to competing between being a 70-win team and a 95-win team. I am not a proponent of the outlook that de facto promotes the former just because someone doesn’t expect us to be the latter next season.

I also don’t think we’re quite as far away as other people. Normal healthy seasons last year from Scott and Roberts, and un-subpar performances from Matusz and Arrieta, and we’re looking at a .500 team.

As for what kind of team we have this year, I’m holding off until April 1 to form an opinion.

On another note, I’m beginning to get the feeling that Matusz’s days in the system are numbered.

by Ampontan on Dec 14, 2011 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Fair enough.

I also don’t think we’re quite as far away as other people. Normal healthy seasons last year from Scott and Roberts, and un-subpar performances from Matusz and Arrieta, and we’re looking at a .500 team.

I agree with you, but there are still a couple of problems there. First, we can’t make it into the playoffs with an 81-win team. It will take at least 88 wins in 2012 and probably 86 wins in 2013 and beyond. Second, that’s a lot of things that would need to break right just to get to 81 wins. There’s no reason to expect that many things to go right, injuries and ineffectiveness are always present.

by SeanP on Dec 14, 2011 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

What's the point of considering things like normal healthy seasons from Roberts and Scott?

They didn’t happen and likely won’t happen again. And even if they had happened and we had gotten to .500, how sustainable is that? Is Roberts going to be on the next contending O’s team?

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Dec 14, 2011 2:14 AM EST up reply actions

Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear? What is reality?

by Ampontan on Dec 14, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

I think THIS is actually the attitude that keeps teams in last place.

If you have a chance to turn a guy with very little ceiling who’s already past any development stages into young talent, you do it in a heartbeat.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Dec 14, 2011 2:13 AM EST up reply actions

yes absolutely

Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope

by Andrew_G on Dec 14, 2011 8:07 AM EST up reply actions

?

Very little ceiling past developmental stage brings what in the way of talent? At the trading deadline, no less, when really important deals don’t get done.

Treading water is all it is.

by Ampontan on Dec 14, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

If it brings anything in the way of young talent you should do it.

I didn’t say he WOULD – just that if he did you have to do it.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Dec 14, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions

Of COURSE Keith Law doesn't like the signing.

We could trade Kyle Hudson for Albert Pujols and he’d still give DD crap about it.

I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 14, 2011 1:05 AM EST reply actions

I hate to agree with Keith Law Industries,

but I do. I’m just not all that certain that this guy will have more value than Jo Jo Reyes. I mean, it’s the Orioles, so I want him to be good, but you know, it’s the Orioles.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Dec 14, 2011 1:52 AM EST up reply actions

You can't be certain if Wada will be any good or not...

…but you can be certain that JoJo Reyes will be awful.

I don’t really have a problem with Law. I mean, it’s not like we’ve ever seen any Japanese players with below average velocity and a great K/BB ratios have any success in the AL East…

Have we?

I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj

by Christopher Claxton on Dec 14, 2011 2:49 AM EST up reply actions

That's a pretty specific qualification from a very small population.

There have only been like 10-15 pitchers to make the NPB-MLB move.

by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 14, 2011 4:39 AM EST up reply actions

that's a forced comparison

Koji’s fastball was a red flag to scouts (and not just Keith Law), but I haven’t seen one scout (and not just Keith Law) give the opinion that Wada’s fastball can even hold the jockstraps of Koji’s fastball.

Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope

by Andrew_G on Dec 14, 2011 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

Were they really asked to compare the two?

I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj

by Christopher Claxton on Dec 14, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

The worst-case scenario is that we just over-paid for a lefty reliever who throws strikes – and given the $20 million we’ve spent on Gonzo and Gregg over the past three years, that’s not actually even that bad given that he’ll be given a chance to make the rotation. The best-case scenario is that we just underpaid for an effective back-of-the-rotation starter, who we either use for the duration of his contract or we trade at some point for something valuable. Jamie Moyer was a 6.6 fWAR pitcher for three years with the O’s, and that was in the AL East (and from the info that we have, it seems like he gets more ground balls than Moyer). I really don’t think it was a bad signing at all.

by ChrmCtyRnr on Dec 14, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

however...

it’s kind of crazy to compare the jamie moyer and al east of 20 years ago w/ tsuyoshie wada and the al east of today, i think.

"Three thousand years of beautiful tradition,from Moses to Sandy Koufax,YOU'RE GODDAMN RIGHT I'M LIVING IN THE FUCKING PAST!"- Walter Sobchak

by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah ... that's true.

And from there, Moyer has been moderately successful in the NL East and The AL West (in the pitcher’s paradise that is Seattle). That said, the AL East was still a pretty hard-hitting division even back in ca. 1995. Your right, though, it’s apples and oranges. I guess in my brain, it was more recently than 15 years ago that he pitched here.

by ChrmCtyRnr on Dec 14, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

Okajima?

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Dec 14, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah ...

Okajima was a pretty good pitcher for his first couple/few years in the league (and probably still could be an effective LOOGY, despite a couple of atrocious years there).

I think we’d be thrilled with Okajima-like production, actually. Perhaps not for $4 mil/season, but some of that is worth the cost of seeing if he can be an effective starter. Plus, Wada appears from his home run rates (not a great indicator, I know, but the best we have) to get more ground balls than Okajima, which would be a good thing for sure.

by ChrmCtyRnr on Dec 14, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

his funky delivery is what kept his alive.

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Dec 14, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

no Oriole starter would have been a MVP in the NPB, or posted a 1.51 ERA. That doesn’t mean Wada is going to be great but he deserves a bit more respect than what Law showed

by Omigawa on Dec 14, 2011 8:03 AM EST up reply actions