Rosenthal: Orioles have discussed trade for Jurrjens & Prado
by Stacey on Dec 14, 2011 10:50 AM EST
in News & Rumors
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PrintLifted from Talking Chop:
[T]he Orioles and Braves have discussed a deal that included both Jurrjens and Prado, sources say.
That's from this article from Ken Rosenthal.
Both Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado are free agents in 2014. Would you trade for them? And if so, who would you offer? And knowing that we all think differently from the Orioles, who do you think Dan Duquette would offer for them?
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I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James
Bye bye Adam Jones :(
Who else would they want from our team that would actually help them? Maybe Reynolds as Chipper insurance. JJ Hardy?
Luke Scott Luke Scott Luke Scott you still my boy-Adam Jones
Right
AJ is really the only player on the Orioles who could bring back a player like Jurrjens. Maybe Wieters, but the Braves have an all-star catcher.
Doubt this will happen though…
by NittanyBlueHen on Dec 14, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
What good is Jones doing this team now?
There should be no one on this team who is untouchable in a trade, with the possible exception of Weiters.
If you want good, you have to give good.
by InfrasonicTom on Dec 14, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
True.
Britton too, probably. Of the MLB team, I probably would make only Wieters and Britton “untouchable” (or as close to that as makes sense … obviously anybody is touchable for the right overpayment, even if you’re not actively shopping that player).
I actually think it would be incredibly smart to shop Jonesy. He had a good year, and he would be hugely attractive to a bunch of competitive teams.
And realistically, Markakis probably isn’t going anywhere because of his contract, which suits me just fine because I still harbor deep-seeded hopes that he will return to being the kind of .300/.400/.500 player he looked like he was on his way to being in 2008. And then I snap out of it a bit, and cry on the inside. Regardless, it’s not at a point where we should be eating contract just to send him away. (And for the record, Bill James is predicting a .297/.372/.451 season from Markakis this year … would would be something like a 3 fWAR season assuming a UZR/150 in the -4.7 range again … and I would take that and be pretty happy having him bat second all year.)
I would eat a chunk of Markakis' contract for something of value in return.
In fact, I intend to suggest doing that as an option once I get off my lazy ass and write my trade piece.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Sure ...
But it would have to be pretty solid value. Markakis, even if not elite, is still a useful player.
If all we need to offer is junk (e.g. Teagarden/Eveland trades), I don't mind it.
I just don’t see the Braves taking junk for either of those guys, mostly because they are both worth more than junk. We just don’t have much in terms of expendable non-junk to trade.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
They want a "Greinke-like return."
They’re on record saying that.
let me be on record
saying no way in hell they get a grienke return.
by mdterps0325 on Dec 14, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Is that because he's nowhere near Greinke?
That said … you shop a guy who went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA, you should be able to get quite a haul from teams who don’t pay attention to advanced metrics.
Think of what they could have gotten from Syd Thrift or Jim Beattie for Jurjenns!
There seem to be fewer and fewer front offices that ignore advanced metrics.
If the Braves can fleece those guys, more power to them. That being said, a Greinke return for Jurjenns after what the A’s got for Cahill is a pipe dream.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
They got a decent return for Cahill.
I would think that they probably would take a Cahill-esque return for Jurjenns, and that probably is a more realistic expectation. Given the age of the two player sand the advanced metrics (and even given that JJ is more of a flyball pitcher and TC is more of a gb pitcher), it’s probably not a bad comp.
So perhaps let’s play with that one.
Does Cahill + Breslow = Jurjenns + Prado? Let’s say for the sake of argument that it does.
So we’re looking at giving the equivalent of Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook.
Parker has TOR talent and is ranked somewhere around the 18th best prospect in all of baseball, even given the rehab from tommy john; I suppose the injury history reduces his value some, but his 2011 season was totally fine and he seems to have regained his status as a top-tier prospect. Cowgill is a really nice outfield prospect with a nice approach and decent pop, he absolutely destroyed the PCL last year and had really strong showings in A+ and AA the two years before that. That’s two MLB-ready guys (regardless of whether the A’s anticipate using them this year), and prior to the trade something like #2 and #14 guy in the Arizona system. Add to that a serviceable reliever prospect who is near MLB-ready and that’s a pretty solid haul for Oakland in my opinion. There’s room for opinion here, but I’m not sure it’s that far off of what the Brewers gave for Greinke (particularly given that Escobar just isn’t that good of a MLB player at this point).
I still think the functional equivalent from our organization would look something like Jones, Bridwell and Delmonico. I could see them holding firm for something like Jones, Hardy, and a couple of minor leaguers. Still way too much to give in my opinion.
Thoughts?
In a vacuum, I'm not opposed to giving up Jones, Bridwell, and Delmonico.
I am opposed to giving up those players for two years of Jurjenns and Prado. Don’t get me wrong, they are both good players and I would like to have them if the O’s were in a different place in their success cycle. There is just little reason to give up cheap, cost-controlled players with upside for either of them now.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
by salvotion on Dec 14, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree on all counts.
If we were a #3 starter and second baseman away from making the playoffs, and had a decent farm system after Bundy, Machado and Schoop, and had a replacement in our organization for Adam Jones (that would still allow us to compete under those circumstances for the playoffs), then I might not even have a problem considering this deal.
I also think that we could do a whole lot better for Jones than Jurjenns if we decided to make him available and shop him. Hell, from the Braves alone we could do a lot better than Jurjenns and Prado for Jones in terms of grabbing young pitching who conceivably would be in the organization and contribute for the next 6-8 years.
But that is a VERY different scenario than the one facing us.
I'm a decidedly "no" vote too.
Jurjenns is a sell-high guy. His peripherals show that he is a good, but not elite, MLB starter. At 42% gb and 6 k/9 in a hitter’s ballpark, with a 3.88 career FIP (higher that that the last two years, and an even higher xFIP), he looks like a solid number-three starter at best. They are looking for elite talent in return, they’re shopping him as an elite pitcher who went 13-6 last year with a 2.96 era (for teams that value such things). The best thing about him is his age, which is mitigated somewhat by the mere two years of team control. He’s a solid #3 starter under team control for two years … what is the market value for that?
So what would the Braves want in return? They have said that they want a “Greinke-like return.” That’s a direct quote from various MLB execs.
The Brewers traded Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and right-handed pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress for Greinke. Notably, Escobar and Cain are both legit MLB starters, Cain profiles as above-average or better, and Odorizzi and Jeffress both still rank in the top 5 and 15 respectively of a pretty strong Royals farm system (even though they graduated quite a bit in 2011). (Note: I’ve never been a huge fan of Escobar, but he was very highly regarded at the time of the trade.)
Generally, the m/o for the Braves would be to seek out 1-2 top-tier pitching prospects below AA in this kind of trade (as well as another useful piece or two), but we don’t really have any of those not named Bundy (who, of course, is not a realistic asking price). So, following that, I’m guessing they would want something that started with Britton or Jones, and probably one that includes Hardy and probably something like Bridwell and Schrader, although it wouldn’t surprise me if they went after someone like Delmonico as a ptbnl. There is NO CHANCE that two years of Jurjenns is worth this kind of package.
I like Prado, particularly if we are closing the book on Roberts. He’s a buy-low guy who really struggled last year, but who I think could rebound and look much closer like the .300/.350/.460 player he was in 2009-2010. Or, he could be something in the .280/.340/.420 range, which is much less valuable when you factor in below-average defense at second base, but still isn’t terrible. If we get him for buy-low prices, then pull the trigger … but the amount of interest on the rumor mill makes it pretty clear that we’re not going to steal him from the Braves. And all of this said, Antonelli profiles as a very similar player to Prado if he can get it together in the big leagues, and we might as well actually give Antonelli 500 plate appearances rather than giving something of value for two years of Prado. This logic applies whether we are talking about Prado(/Antonelli) at second base or third base.
Whatoever we would give up to get Jurjenns and Prado, we need more than Jurjenns and Prado. That’s my take.
by ChrmCtyRnr on Dec 14, 2011 11:48 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
good post
I just scanned, but I agree about giving antonelli a chance over trading for prado. JJ would get killed with a 40% GB rate and an xFIP so high in the AL EAst at camden
by mdterps0325 on Dec 14, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I would be thrilled if Antonelli turned into Prado.
At this point, he looks like Prado but with more strike outs and less power. In other words, serviceable and cheap but not particularly good, either.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
it’s a shame the wheels fell off after AA for Antonelli. I have a hard time figuring out what happened there.
In A+ ball, he was a .314/.409/.499 hitter, and the following year through half of a season AA at-bats, he was a .294/.395/.476 guy. I’m guessing he got hurt, because he only had 223 at-bats. Then, the next year in a full season at AAA, he hit .215/.335/.322. What happened there? If you believe him, he was in severe pain all year, and couldn’t get it diagnosed. (Ultimately, two years later, they found out that he had broken his hamate bone.) It hasn’t been a good scene since, albeit in a lot of part-time and up-and-down seasons split between AAA and the big leagues and missing two years with injury. But it’s hard to imagine that his entire approach at the plate disappeared between A/AA ball and now, right? I like the move because if he is healthy and can regain anything resembling that .300/.400/475 player he was early in his MiL career, then he’s a coup for us. Notably, Pedroia and Tulowitzki, among others, are middle infielders who are playing after having the hamate surgery … so I’m optimistic.
Aaaaand I'm still an idiot.
Misspelling “Jurrjens,” or spelling “Jurrjens” incorrectly. Either way, but not both.
Ugh, I’m done now.
The Braves discussed these two with the Royals...
The Royals walked away when the Braves demanded Wil Myers. The closest the O’s have to Myers is Manny Machado.
Ergo, as to the question of should the Orioles be considering this, the answer would appear to be “no, hell no, get the fuck out of here, no.”
would love to see a tweet from rosenthal
that says “Duquette tells braves to fuck off. My bowtie sucks”
by mdterps0325 on Dec 14, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yes and no.
A bird in the hand …
You have to figure the Braves would be interested in Jones as the centerpiece. So while the primary targets in the Royals organization were prospects (Myers, an elite prospect), that’s not so with the O’s. Everyone has to know that Machado and Bundy are completely off-limits. So this wouldn’t even have been “discussion” worthy (even in twitterland).
Would it work?
Hobgood, Bergy, another pitching prospect and one of our better OF in AAA
Nope, not a chance.
Flip it around, would you be happy with that return for a guy who went 13-6 and had a 2.96 era last year?
Hobgood is worth literally nothing at this point, and Bergy isn’t worth much more (despite that if he re-found his sinker and command – you know, like he had as recently as two seasons ago – he actually could be a decent MLB pitcher). We don’t really have any decent AAA outfield prospects. The best we have is probably Glynn Davis or LJ Hoes (both of whom I actually do like, although Hoes would be better if he played CF or could have stuck at 2b), and neither of those guys really has much trade value at this point – certainly not anything like what the Braves are asking for.
What? Don't Use Those Numbers
Those numbers are incredibly misleading. The Braves are selling high and don’t you forget it. Yeah, he had a 2.96 ERA but that’s entirely because of his first half. He only managed ONE win in the second half of the season and the more batters see him, the more he gets hit. By the second half of the season people were hitting .301 against him. Does that sound like a guy who is capable of a FULL season with a sub 3 ERA? How about his 1.645 WHIP in the second half? It makes Chris Tillman look like Verlander.
I agree with you that I wouldn’t take the trade if I were the Braves, but don’t get brainwashed by his base numbers. They’re just plain wrong.
By the way, JJ’s skill independent ERA? 4.43.
http://belovedborioles.blogspot.com
by Bird of Pray on Dec 14, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Read my posts from earlier, I'm not an ERA/W-L guy ...
In my first post today, I said he was a sell-high guy, and I used his FIP, xFIP and maybe ERA+ (although I can’t remember) in that post. I absolutely get it, I’m just saying the sales pitch for the braves is “13-6, 2.96 ERA,” and that they will get something good for him if they decide to move him. Also, when you look at the advanced metrics and the secondary stuff, the Cahill trade is actually a pretty fair comp. NO WAY that Hobgood, Bergy and one of our nonexistent outfield prospects get us Jurrjens (the same way that they wouldn’t have gotten us Cahill).
Actually...
How about his 1.645 WHIP in the second half? It makes Chris Tillman look like Verlander.
Chris Tillman’s WHIP last year was…1.645.
HA! Really?
I’ll still take Tillman comparing to Jurrjens. But man, what were the odds?
Touche, sir. Touche.
by Bird of Pray on Dec 17, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Lawls
Jim Bowden on ESPN.com suggests that a fair trade would be Jurrjens and Prado for Adam Jones and Josh Bell.
I don’t even like Jurrjens and Prado that much, but I would make that trade in a heartbeat. It’s a ridiculous trade.
I would also make that trade. And would love it.
IRL, however, Frank Wren is not an idiot.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Damn smart people not letting us fleece them!
We should totally trade two prospects like Bell and Brandon Snyder for a washed up player like Hanley Ramirez…
by Tezcatlipoca on Dec 14, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
I actually think that is a pretty fair trade idea.
I still think Wren would try to pick our pocket of a few low-minors pitching prospects, because that’s what the braves do.
I probably would pull the trigger on that one if I were the O’s. So who plays center field next year if Jones goes to the braves?
Coco Crisp.
I am also interested in possibly getting Bryan Petersen from the Marlins to play either of CF or RF in the event Nicky or AJ are shipped off to greener pastures.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Yup ... good thought.
Crisp would be a good idea on a one-and-an-option kind of deal, I really like that solution if we were to shop Jones. Given his injury history it seems like we’d need a back-up, but I’m not sure Angle couldn’t hold that down for this year. And I like Peterson too. Really sss, but his defense seems to play in cf. I also wonder if Coughlin might be available as something of an add-on (or do the marlins having him starting)?
I wonder if Guthrie is interesting to the Marlins?
Marlins have a few players to choose from in CF.
Bonifacio, Coughlan, and Petersen. Unfortunately for my plan, Petersen is likely their best option. Coughlan could be another trade target to play CF. Problem is he isn’t particularly good at defense and is coming off injury-addled seasons. He is a wait-and-see guy for me. I would rather target someone younger and in the minors if Petersen is not available.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Coughlin would be much less expensive
That’s kind of what I was getting at. Conceivably, we could get both if you have us sending them Jones.
That is an interesting idea.
Coughlan is “capable” of playing 2B so he could be a potential fit there. I just doubt that Miami would give up two cheap, cost-controlled, and probably good MLB players for two years of AJ at arbitration prices. Petersen might be as valuable as AJ right now even though he hits for less power.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
The way they're spending ...
They could offer AJ an extension pretty easily!
I’m not sure Peterson is as valuable as AJ right now, depending on whether you believe that AJ took a pretty huge step forward last year. Maybe you’re right, though.
I also didn’t realize that Coghlan hadn’t entered arb yet.
If Jones is traded, we'll be looking at Matt Angle in CF and Kyle Hudson as the 4th OF.
I don’t see anything happening to change that.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 14, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Here's another Jim Bowden-suggested trade
Mariners trade Felix Hernandez to the Yankees for Ivan Nova, Jesus Montero and Dellin Betances.
That’s actually not an insane trade.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 14, 2011 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
I actually like that trade, as much as I would hate to see Felix so much more.
Mariners get a good cost-controlled MLB starter, an MLB ready DH/“C”, and a strikeout SP prone to wildness that is almost MLB ready. Yankees get 2-years of probably Cy Young caliber SP. Seems like a win-win.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
if montero could actually play catcher, i think that's a decent trade.
otherwise, i think it’s still too light on yankees side.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I think that a team might be able to sort of buy low on Montero.
Some people seem to be pretty down on Montero because of his defensive issues, but a catcher can be a really horrible defender if he is has a good bat.
The positional adjustment for catcher is + 12.5 runs, and it’s -12.5 for 1B and -17.5 for DH. So, a catcher can be worth 2 wins if he has a league average bat, plays -12.5 defense and stays healthy. By UZR, the worst defensive player-season by a catcher since 2003* was Victor Martinez in 2006. That year, Martinez cost the team 10.6 runs on defense and another 6.6 runs on the basepaths. Even so, he managed to be worth 3.3 wins by hitting .316/.391/.465 for a .369 wOBA and 123 wRC+ over 652 PAs.
Granted, UZR isn’t a great metric for evaluating catchers, and there’s more to catching than UZR can track. But still, it seems like Montero could be at least a league average catcher, and he could be much better if he plays just reasonably-bad defense.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/catcher-defense-in-war/
he can't throw or block balls.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Fair enough.
I don’t really know anything about scouting players, I’m just making the point that a catcher has to be an absolutely awful defender for it to make sense to move him to first base. But it might be the case that Montero is such an awful defender.
O God, Please No.
Jurrjens is seriously overrated. I think the Orioles remember him pitching that one hit shut out against us, and looked past the rest of his career. Let’s spend money on dudes with upsides, not guys that we’re just waiting to crack.
Keep on going after the IFA! Or sign some prospects! But please, don’t trade our talent for someone like JJ.
http://belovedborioles.blogspot.com
hey.
thanks for heeding my message. and feel free to make your sig line a hotlink if you want, that’s perfectly acceptable.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
Thanks!
Yeah, I confess I’m new to all this. I really didn’t mean to step on your toes. Sorry about that. And thanks for the advice, I’ll do just that.
http://belovedborioles.blogspot.com
by Bird of Pray on Dec 14, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Woah! Awesome! I Owe You One.
Click Here
http://belovedborioles.blogspot.com
by Bird of Pray on Dec 17, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Just want to remind everyone.
You’ve got 2 hours to get your bids for Darvish in.
I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj
by Christopher Claxton on Dec 14, 2011 2:51 PM EST reply actions
I will make sure to do that.
I think I’ve got a $20 in my wallet somewhere…
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Trade them everybody…
But seriously I’d probably hold on to Jones for the Twitter-value alone in this case.
http://actionontheice.blogspot.com/
The thing about trading Adam Jones for Jurrjens and Prado
Maybe it’s a fair deal, maybe not. But even if it’s fair in value, if the Orioles step up and trade Adam Jones it should be out of concern for the future, beyond the next few years. Jones, Prado, and Jurrjens will all be FA in 2014 so we’re not gaining any time.
Exactly.
There’s no point in trading for two years of two players. The braves have a very pitching-wealthy farm system (including multiple guys who profile as 1-2 starters), so if they want Jones then they should be willing to pony up the goods to get him. Otherwise, shop him elsewhere … someone will overpay for him.
O's inch closer to contention
as the Red Sox inexplicably sign Nick Punto — Nick Punto(!) — to a two-year contract today.
In other news: hahahahahahaha
Will he be starting?
If so, lolz. But it looks like he’s just a utility man. At 2 years for $1.5MM per year, that’s not terrible. Punto can’t hit a lick but plays good defense. He should easily be worth that contract. Actually, most of Punto’s numbers are better than Andino, who appears to be our starting 2B at the moment. There’s some food for thought.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Not only is he not starting, he's not even the utility man. He's the BACKUP utility man.
I'd put it this way; if an offense is a sugar cookie, on base percentage is the pastry part of the cookie, power is the icing, and baserunning is like the jimmies that they sprinkle onto the icing. - Bill James
by J(O's)elskIL on Dec 14, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, the luxury of spending $3MM on a backup utility man.
With that role, Punto will play, what, 40 innings?
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Do they still have Scutaro?
Who wins out between Scutaro and Aviles?
Scutaro in a walk, I guess. He was better last year than i thought he was.
Scutaro is on the last year of his two-year deal.
Getting paid $6MM. They also just shipped off Lowrie to Houston so it looks like they have settled in with Scutaro as their starting SS, which is a pretty good decision given Lowrie’s problems staying on the field.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Right right, I should have looked that up before clicking "send."
And I guess Punto, Aviles and Iglesias are in line for the util job(s).
Aviles wasn’t a bad pick-up for them, although they actually gave up quite a bit to get him (two decent prospects). Giving up what they gave up, you would think they intend to use him wouldn’t you?
And Iglesias, I guess.
But I don’t really get the fascination, given that he can’t hit.
with the Red Sox cripplingly close to the luxury tax threshhold?
yeah, this makes absolutely no sense. I love it. Still giggling.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 14, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Aviles, I guess?
Or Scutaro. Whoever loses out on the starting shortstop job?
I guess our back-up utility guy is whoever loses out for time between Flaherty and Antonelli?
this is such a let's go for .500 move.
not surprising given that DD is on a 3 year contract.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I can't wait to trade adam jones...
…but if we did it for this, I’d be very pissed. This deal would help us in no way at all. Why make it?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Agreed.
Trading two years of AJ (plus whatever else we would need to cough up) for two years of Jurrjens and Prado makes little sense in the O’s plans. Hopefully, DD was just kicking the tires to see if he could get a steal.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
If you believe that...
….I’ve got a Dana Eveland to sell you.
Here’s my take on DD so far – sucktacular. The fucking Astros get Luhnow and we get this shit?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Luhnow's first trade was a steal.
A reliever for Lowrie and Weiland would be one of those trades I would have filed under “would never happen.” If we had any need for Lowrie at SS, we could have theoretically swung the same deal for Jim Johnson. I’m still going to give DD at least this year before I conclude he is terrible.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
because DD perceives that this trade will get the team one step closer to .500.
he probably thinks the rotation was a disaster last year. jurrijens is a huge upgrade while jones would be easier to replace.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I just do not see a good match between the two organizations. Adam Jones is a quality player. Not a superstar, but he is capable of playing center field and has a decent bat.
Jurrjens is probably going to pull back about 20MM worth of value over the next two seasons and will likely cost about 14MM.
Jones will be worth about 30MM and cost about 15MM.
You have a 9MM split there.
Prado likely will generate about 15MM in value and cost about 10MM.
Os still have 4MM in surplus coming their way.
There would be 4MM in surplus if the Braves would ever agree to that trade.
There is just no way a Jurrjens and Prado for AJ swap happens.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Right it just makes no sense.
A secondary issue is that the value that Jones is worth is in one player and splitting that value to more than one position.
In terms of value, Jurrjens and Prado are both, individually, capable of producing similar fWAR totals to AJ.
So, if money is not considered, it could be seen as the equivalent of trading 2 AJs for one. I understand that Jurrjens and Prado did not produce at the same level as AJ did last year, but I’m pretty sure that Prado’s production from last year is a BABIP fluke. Jurrjens, though….I don’t know. There are things to like and things to dislike. I see him as a league-average starter.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Lots of folks are capable of producing FWAR totals to AJ. It more or less comes from projecting performance. I Jurrjens is worth about 2 WAR and Prado worth about 1.5 WAR.
I disagree with your Prado projection.
He was worth more than that last year on a shortened season. Looking through Prado’s numbers, there is little to no difference between Prado’s 2009/2010 (3.2 and 4.4 fWAR respectively) seasons and his 2011 season except for his BABIP. It’s possible that he is just as unlucky next year, but I see it far more likely that he rebounds to be 3 fWAR or better. He is still 28 years old so we are probably not going to see age-related decline quite yet.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Then please explain what underlying tools you are referring to and how those tools indicate a 1.5 WAR player.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
He is a true left fielder and I don’t believe in him maintaining a high enough contact rate.
That is basically it.
If you believe he can maintain a .300 average then he is a useful LF, not a star.
I think he is at best below average at second and likely is a poor fit for third base.
by crawdaddy on Dec 15, 2011 7:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
do you think
We could get randall delgado and another guy? maybe chris perez who throws a few more GB?
A big no thanks,
I find Jurrjens injury history extremely concerning. And Prado is redundant on the Orioles.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Maybe the idea is to trade for Jurjenns and Prado, and then flip them?
That’s the only way this makes sense for me.
Possibly
but if they could deal Reynolds and some basic prospect, I’d jump at it in a heartbeat. With guys like C Davis, Andino, Adams, Mahoney, and so on, the O’s can give up Reynolds without losing anything, and get a possible #2 starter back.
Sure, they could get that.
But if that’s the case, why not trade Reynolds for some prospects instead?
The O's don't lose anything ... except a power hitter who will draw a walk.
Which description fits none of the guys you named.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 14, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
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