29 Trades with 29 Teams: Milwaukee Brewers
by SeanP on Dec 14, 2011 7:05 PM EST
Email
Print
Proposed trade:
Jeremy Guthrie and Mark Reynolds for Nick Bucci and Mike Fiers
Brewers side:
Nick Bucci
Background: Nick Bucci is a 21 year-old right-handed starting pitcher who pitched 150 innings of 3.84 ERA ball at High-A this year. Despite moving from A ball to High-A in 2011, he managed to lower his walk and homerun rates while keeping his strikeout rate pretty much constant. John Sickels graded Bucci as a C+.
Reasons for obtaining him: Though he projects as a #5 starter or middle reliever, Bucci has the potential to be a solid #3 starter. He is still fairly young, so there is no reason to rush him.
Reasons he is obtainable: Bucci was an 18th round pick in the 2008 draft, so he doesn’t come with a high pedigree. While he has posted good strikeout, walk and homerun rates, Bucci’s upside is limited because he doesn’t have any one dominant trait. He also hasn’t pitched in the past High-A yet.
Notes: From a statistical standpoint, Bucci reminds me of Bobby Bundy: both players just posted sub-4 FIPs at High-A in their age-21 seasons; both are 6’2" right-handers; and both were drafted after the 5th round in 2008. I have no idea how the players compare on a scouting/stuff basis, and Bundy is more highly-regarded, but I like the idea of developing Bundy and Bucci on the same timetable.
Mike Fiers
Background: Fiers is a 26 year-old right-handed starting pitcher. He started 2011 in Double-A, pitching 61.1 innings of 2.64 ERA in mostly relief appearances (8 GS, 22 G). He was bumped up to Triple-A for 64.2 innings (10 starts in 12 games) of 1.11 ERA before getting a 2-inning cup of coffee in the majors. Sickels rated Fiers as a borderline B-/C+.
Reasons for obtaining him: Sickels says that Fiers "could be like Josh Collmenter." That probably represents Fiers’ ceiling: a league-average, cost-controlled starter. If he cannon stick as a starter, Fiers could still become a high-strikeout set-up man.
Reasons he is obtainable: Fiers will be pitching as a 27 year-old in 2012. It’s very possible that he has already hit his peak. He is expendable because the Brewers’ quartet of Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann and Bradley could all be ready for the majors between 2013 and 2014. Furthermore, Fiers was never well-known prospect until his 2011 season.
Notes: The Brewers might see Fiers as an older prospect with a low ceiling. If that’s the case, the Orioles should have no problem acquiring him. On the other hand, if the Brewers view Fiers as a rotation candidate in 2012, they might not give him up so easily. He is already on their 40-man roster, after all.
Orioles side:
Jeremy Guthrie
The Brewers seem to be gearing up for another run at the NL Central division title in 2012. They signed Aramis Ramirez to a 3 year deal, they signed Alex Gonzalez to 1 year deal, and they traded Casey McGehee for Jose Veras to solidify their bullpen. These moves all improve the team without mortgaging their future. The Brewers could make a few more low-risk moves to improve their chances at returning to the playoffs.
The Brewers rotation was very lucky in 2011 - their only significant injury was Zach Greinke’s fractured rib, and that only kept him out for 5 starts. Only six pitchers made starts for the Brewers in 2011, compared to 12 pitchers for the Orioles. The Brewers can’t expect to be so lucky again. Guthrie makes sense for the Brewers because he represents an upgrade over their current back-of-the-rotation options and he allows the Brewers to break camp with 6 pitchers who have considerable starting experience in the majors. In the event that one of the Brewers’ top five starters is injured, Chris Narveson will be able to step in and give them above-replacement starts.
Mark Reynolds
Since the Brewers opted to pass on the Prince Fielder Sweepstakes and sign Ramirez to a three year deal, they are committed to giving playing time at first base to lefty Mat Gamel. While Gamel has shown that he can hit well (122 wRC+ at Triple-A in 2011), his skills have failed to materialize in 85 games (82 wRC+ in 194 PAs) at the major league level.
Mark Reynolds will give the Brewers depth at the corners and a good platoon bat for Gamel at first. Reynolds’ large career splits (.377 wOBA vs LHP, .341 vs RHP & .882 OPS vs LHP, .791 vs RHP) show that he could be an excellent platoon bat. He could also start regularly if Gamel falters or one of the other starters is injured.
Overview:
In Guthrie and Reynolds, the Brewers get the depth that they will need to make another run at the playoffs. In return, the Orioles get two undervalued prospects with the potential to become solid, cost-controlled starting pitchers. I think that this is a sold trade for both sides, but it could be inhibited by the sheer lack of depth in the Brewers' farm system due to trades and graduations. My only other thought on trade is that the O’s would probably have to send some money along with Guthrie and Reynolds, as the pair will earn roughly $16M in 2012.
Sources:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/17/2496403/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2012
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa455372&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7754&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7619&position=3B
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2072&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7312&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454969&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9147&position=2B/3B
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bucci-001nic
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=fiers-001mic
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guthrje01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collmjo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bundy-002rob
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenta01.shtml
http://baseballinstinct.com/2011/08/13/touchem-all-top-mlb-pitching-prospects-fsl/
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/fanblogs/116959763.html
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/p/top-2000-prospects.html
FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.
57 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i dig this trade. it's birdtastic.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I would like a better return for the O's.
But this is an excellent suggestion. Guthrie and Reynolds fit right into the Brewers’ apparent plan. I would rather see pitchers farther away from the majors with mid to high-SP rotation stuff than Fiers who is probably all he’ll ever be right now, which does not appear to be equal to either Guthrie or Reynolds in value. Bucci also does not seem to have the kind of upside I would want. A guy in AA ball whose ceiling is a #3 starter and who will need to be developed in our current minor league system is less than appealing. A #3 starter is what Guthrie is right now. Waiting one to three more years for a chance at the same production does not seem good enough.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Thanks for the feedback.
I tried to be really conservative on this trade, given that people (myself included) have shot down most of the other trades for asking for too much in return. Both Guthrie and Reynolds are pretty expensive, so it’s hard for me to see them bringing back much value.
I agree that the O’s should look for higher-ceiling pitchers, but the Brewers system is pretty depleted after their top 4 starting pitching prospects. So, yes, we should be looking for upside, but we’re not going to find much if the Brewers are the trade partner.
I understand the desire to put forth a more conservative approach.
And you’ll get your shot to tear apart my trade proposal :) How about aiming for those higher players. Their top prospects are all pitchers (at least according to Fangraphs). How about one of the following: Jeremy Jeffress (flame thrower, MLB ready, but has a serious makeup question involving drugs), Kyle Heckathorn (flame thrower in A/AA with good GB rates), Wily Peralta or Cody Scarpetta. Then have either Bucci or Fiers as an extra. Thoughts?
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Ah, indeed he was. Just realized that the Fangraphs Brewers prospect list has not been updated for 2012 yet.
Scratch the pitcher suggestions, though Peralta can stay in there. Jorge Lopez looks interesting, as SeanP points out below. I like the name David Goforth but I worry about our ability to develop him given he has serious command issues. We definitely couldn’t beat that out of D-Cabs. Still, he’s a solid upside bet.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Heckathorn is a possibility (and he has a great last name), but his High-A rates don’t look much better than Bucci’s. He probably has better stuff, but he’s also two years older.
Peralta is probably off-limits in this kind of deal (i.e. involving non-star players) since he is probably their top prospect and he could be ready as soon as early 2012.
Scarpetta is a possibility, but I worry about the Orioles’ ability to fix a dude’s command problems.
Peralta is a top prospect in a bad system.
If he were an A/A- kind of guy, I think you would be right. But a straight B prospect for a star player seems like too much even if he is the best they’ve got.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
True.
But I still think that they would rather let Peralta sink or swim than just ship him off for Guthrie.
If I were the Brewers, I would keep Peralta.
But, if I were the O’s, I would at least ask for him and let the Brewers make the call.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
a year rentals won't grab much
bucci seems like a fair return. throw in reynolds and fiers and this trade seems fair.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Now that I've said that, Jorge Lopez might be available in a deal.
He seems to have good upside. Maybe Santo Manzanillo and David Goforth too. But, like I said, I tried to be conservative, and I tried to go for undervalued players.
In my eyes, it’s pretty important to have cost-controlled #3-5 in your rotation.
Lopez was just drafted so he can’t be traded. i would love to get Peralta, Thornburg, or Bradley instead of Bucci, but I don’t see the Brewers giving them up for Guthrie. They would probably figure any of those guys could be Guthrie now.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I'm not saying the trade isn't fair.
I think the Brewers would do this. However, if this is the best we can get for Guthrie and Reynolds, I say to hold onto them.
Maybe I'm seriously overvaluing Guthrie,
But I think the Orioles would be better off simply offering Guts arbitration, though I’m not sure if he would project to have enough value to warrant a draft pick under the new CBA. Regardless, I would hold out for more than a C+ prospect for a guy who can throw 200 decent innings, not for a guy outside or the top 100.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
If you're team looking for a mid to back end guy,
You could either sign a guy like Joe Saunders or give up prospects and get one year of Guthrie. I have feeling most teams would prefer the former because you could get roughly the same player while keeping your prospects.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Well, I agree that Guts doesn't have a lot of value.
But for a contending team, I have to think that there’s a big difference between Guthrie and a guy like Saunders. Contenders need to get as much value as they can out of every roster spot, so the difference between 2 wins and 1 win can be pretty important.
You are definitely right, though, that teams will prefer to sign Saunders instead of giving up any of their best prospects for Guthrie.
But we aren't talking about Guts for top prospect.
We are talking Guts and Reynolds for a B prospect and a C/C+ prospect. Reynolds fits very nicely with the Brewers in that he can play 1B relatively well and hits the crap out of the ball (when he hits it, of course). It would at least make up some of the void left by Prince.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
The difference betwee 88 and 90 wins is markedly more than the difference between 69 and 71,
So if team is serious about making a playoff push, I would agree that there is a substantive difference between Guthrie and Saunders. I would also agree that Guts isn’t worth at top end prospect, but I think more than a C+ guy.
I think it also may make more sense to separately deal Guthrie and Reynolds.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
You're probably right about dealing Guthrie and Reynolds separately.
I think one of the problems that most of us have made in this 29 Trades series is trying too hard to fix the Orioles in one trade. Everybody knows that that can’t be done, but for some reason, I still felt compelled to maximize the number of players in the trade. It was pretty hard to keep myself from seeing how Hardy, Andino, Berken and Simon would fit into the on the Brewers. And when I was sizing up teams other than the Brewers, I originally passed on some because they would “only” make sense for Jones or Hardy or Guthrie, but not more than one.
Guthrie ERA+ 95 in 2011, Col. Saunders ERA+ 107 in 2011
IPs are about the same. Guts is a 2.1 fWAR pitcher, Saunders is a 1 fWAR pitcher. I think Guts is slightly better but the difference isn’t huge. But you’re right, a fringy playoff team will place great value on 1 win.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I think you might be selling Guts a little short in saying Saunders and Guts are equivalent.
Guts has pitched in the AL East and generated twice the fWAR as Saunders (pitching in the AL and NL Wests) in the same amount of innings. Comparable pitchers to guts on the FA market would be more in line with Maholm, who would cost more money to sign than Guts will get in arbitration. I assume, but do not know, that the Brewers have budget restraints and saving a few million on Guts over Maholm may be worth the trade in prospects, especially if those prospects are at a lower level of development and will not be on the Brewers until they have passed their current win-now mode.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
i wasn't trying to say they're equivalent
but i am saying that there isn’t a huge difference. Guts is better but a team could go with Saunders and not lose any prospects or only experience a small decrease in performance.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
not lose any prospects AND only experience a small decrease in performance.
which is exactly why i don’t think a team will give up a good prospect for him. it’s either take a so so prospect like bucci or take possible compensation picks.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
If Guts is only worth a guy with a ceiling of back end of the rotation starter,
why deal him at all? (Not meant to be smarmy.)
I like Guts, he likes Baltimore. He might be a guy who would extend at a hometown discount. And if the Orioles can’t get much for him, I’d rather extend him because finding guys to throw 200 quality innings has not proven to be something the Baltimore Orioles are particularly good at.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Is there such a thing as a "hometown discount" though?
People talk about it a lot, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player actually give one.
Yes Kerry Wood
Came back to the Cubs this year for less than he would have had he gone to another team because he liked the Cubs and Chicago.
by Liverpoolcubsfan on Dec 15, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
That's true.
But that was on a one-year deal, and he also said that he would rather retire than waive his no-trade clause, so the Cubs didn’t get much out of that one.
because guys like bucci could develop in unexpected ways. and not to mention, if bucci does develop into a #4 starter as projected, that’s a cheap and usable commodity. you could get a higher upside guy via the draft but it’s also a higher risk route. i guess it depends on what you prefer.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
yeah, I guess I'm just not certain how valuable back end of the rotation guys are,
especially if a guy like Saunders is readily available for a few million bucks. In a sense it comes down the supply of top end guys…if there are not many of these, than all teams will be trying to acquire these. Trading a commodity for a guy who is a back end guy, of which there is a glut, doesn’t seem like the best policy. So in other words, deal Guts for a quality prospect, don’t deal him just to deal him.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
i don't think dealing guts for bucci
is dealing guts for the sake of dealing him. bucci is a lot cheaper than hitting the free agent market for a saunders type of guy. that money saved could be used toward other needs. plus, once you throw in reynolds and fier, i think it’s a fair and decent trade. bucci probably doesn’t have much upside but he’s projectable. if you take a comp pick for guts, you might more upside, but you might also get a complete dud.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I suppose,
if you take a comp pick for guts, you might more upside, but you might also get a complete dud
I think this could be said for Bucci as well, though. If I was given a choice of 2 C+ prospects, let’s say Eduardo Rodriguez and Oliver Drake, I would choose Rodriguez every time because he has the better ceiling. So, in this case, I’d rather take the comp pick, though my preference would be to extend Guthrie especially if the likely return is a back end of the rotation guy. But I see what you are saying!
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Yeah, Bucci might be a dud. But I’m saying he’s more projectable than a supplemental pick. It’s either a low risk, low reward move (Bucci) or high risk, high reward move (supplemental pick). I guess I think either choice is fine. A team should probably be doing both either through the draft and trades.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
We also don’t know what kind of picks we’ll get for Guts, and we don’t know if he’ll accept arbitration.
that's true
which would give extra points to taking bucci type prospect now.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
this is tremendously well-researched
and very plausible. Nice job!
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 14, 2011 10:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I appreciate the depth of research here, but I'm not sure this deal would work for the Brewers.
Guthrie wouldn’t really have a place in the Brewer rotation, which is already stocked 1-5 with Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson. Greinke, Marcum and Wolf will be free agents following 2012 but so will Guthrie, so that doesn’t really solve anything for them.
Reynolds would give the Brewers another interesting option at first base, so he could make sense.
All told, though, this deal probably wouldn’t work unless the O’s ate almost all of the salary of the players coming to Milwaukee. As proposed this deal would have the Brewers taking on $15-16 million (depending on what Guthrie gets in arb), which would put them at about $110mm in salary for 2012. They spent less than $90mm in 2011.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
My first thought too was that the Brewers don't need starting pitching.
Brewers’ SP 1-4 is pretty much etched in stone and Narveson is not at all terrible as a #5 SP. Getting Guthrie would truly be a luxury and I’m not sure they would want to give up solid prospects for some super insurance, but maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad idea considering Wolfie’s age and Greinke’s injury history.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 15, 2011 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
The thing is
while Fiers and Bucci are probably solid prospects (Sickels likes them), they aren’t generally regarded as such.
Greinke doesn't really have an injury history worth worrying about.
What happened to him last year was a rib injury from playing basketball. His injury back in 2005 I think was a bruised wrist from a batted ball. Not really something to be concerned about recurring on a regular basis. He should be good for 200+ IP if he doesn’t do anything stupid or get hit by another ball.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
Yeah, they do have 5 starters for 2012.
But as I noted, it’s very unusual for 5 pitchers to get 96% of their team’s starts in any given year (as they did in 2011). It’s very likely that at least one of the Brewers’ starters will spend some time on the DL in 2012. In that case, they would prefer to have an experienced starter to slide into the number 5 slot, rather than a replacement (or below-replacement) level minor leaguer.
So, yes, they have a full rotation. And, yes, the Orioles would have to eat some salary in this deal. But Guthrie alone could be a 2 win difference, and that could be huge if it’s the difference between 88 and 90 wins.
Anyway, that’s my pitch to the Brewers : D
Also, thanks for looking at the total payroll.
I really didn’t think about that, but it means that the O’s would definitely have to send some salary relief.
Yeah they all in right now
Trying to win now and worry about it later. I think it makes them an ideal trade candidate.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 15, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Official Sponsor of Camden Chat GameThreads
