The White Sox have reportedly been up for selling on the market, notably Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Carlos Quentin, as they will give them the best value on their return. I say we go after Gavin Floyd. Why?
Because I said so!
First, I'd like to establish why we want Gavin Floyd.
1) 29 years old (In January), 2 years of control left. He has averaged 4.13 WAR in the last three years. Solid K rate, (7.29 in last three years), BB rate(2.54) and a decent GB rate(46%). He is, however, someone who seems to underperform his peripherals, as he has an ERA about a half a run above his FIP and xFIP in the same 3 year timespan. (4.17/3.68/3.69). But clearly he is a solid pitcher, that would be in the front of the horrendous Orioles rotation for the next two years.
2) So you are probably asking why we are going for someone who is established, a but older, and only under control for another two years. Well, for one, it would be a wiser decision than most of the Os FO has made in years past. And no, we aren't in contention now, and probably won't be in two years, when he becomes FA. But 31 isn't that old and he honestly could cost less than he is worth, even in FA. And having an above average pitcher maybe, just maybe, will help us have a semblance of good on this team next year. I am not someone who agrees with constantly pushing the timetable back for contention year after year hoping that someday all the prospects get their shit together all at once.
3) He could replace Guts. This could help mitigate the loss we get in trading young players for Floyd. With Wada, Britton, and Guts most likely starting next year, Floyd would make it so their is only one spot for the collective
asshats underperforming pitching prospects to try to improve with. Preferably, I'd like to have two spots, one for Arrietta, and one for Matusz/Tillman/Patton/Eveland. So trading gGuthrie for whatever he can return helps deafen the minor league blow, and clears some room to die by the sword in pitching. Basically you end up paying for a slightly better pitcher to play for one more year. Which, If DD does right, could be a acceptably low cost.
4) He could very well be resign-able. He will be 31 in 2014, which is how old C.J. Wilson is now. Plus, he is from Annapolis and went to Mt. St. Joe's, so he could be a fan of staying in his hometown area. Then again, Maybe not.
So now that I have used my amazing charm to persuade you we want him, what do we need to give up?
First, let's establish value. The White Sox are in the bloated contracts and we can't win now, plus we don't have much at the minor league level phase, so if Kenny Williams goes all out rebuild, they are actually behind the O's. Gavin Floyd is owed 7 million this year, and a 9.5 million dollar team option next year. That's an average of 8.25 millon, and if we say he puts up 4 WAR in each of the next two seasons, he represents 24 million dollars in surplus value. Which is a lot. But, once again, his WAR may be a bit deceiving, as his ERA is constantly above it. And while FIP represents what his value should be, ERA represents what has happened, so there may be some discrepancy as to what surplus he could actually generate. So discounting the value almost a win, at 20 million in surplus, is a number in which I think both teams could agree on. So let's try to reach that 20 million dollar value using Victor Wang's value of prospects and things at our major league club.
Adam Jones- Also only under team control for another two years, but much cheaper than Floyd. This way they don't have to drag out Alex Rios to center every day, or, if they want De Aza in center, they could move Quentin like they have been rumored to be trying. At 2-3 WAR (hopefully) the next two years, with a 60% surplus and a 40% surplus in each year respectively (I believe this is how arbitration works?), he could be worth between 10 and fifteen million dollars in surplus. But, I think for whatever reason his perceived value is above that, at around 15-18 million.
Xavier Avery- B- to C value, 1- 2 million dollars.
Some of you may think I am insane for this one. Trading a 26 year old approaching his prime for a 29 year old on the cusp of his prime. But I think Floyd could provide immediate value to this team, and if we are still really far away from contention in a year, we can trade him away for prospects and try again. As for AJ, between his right-handed heavy splits, a horrific walk rate, and his below average to terrible defense, his perceived value is much higher than his actual value (I think), which makes him perfect trade bait. I think this makes the team better now, and doesn't sacrifice the future whatsoever.
Who Wins/ is this realistic?
Orioles (Gavin Floyd) (30 votes)
White Sox(Adam Jones and Xavier Avery) (49 votes)
This is homer-ish. (12 votes)
Give up AJ for What?! You crazy. (65 votes)
156 total votes