29 Trades With 29 Teams: Kansas City Royals
by HIO'sFan on Dec 22, 2011 6:16 PM EST
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The Royals and Orioles are two teams that are rebuilding. In a year where it seems that every Orioles prospect was injured or regressed badly, the Royals experienced the opposite having good or promising years from their youngsters.
Since we already know about the Orioles, lets take a quick glance at the Royals (based on current roster):
Outfield: Alex Gordon (LF), Jeff Francoeur (RF), and Lorenzo Cain (CF). Cain is the question mark here as he has only played in 49 MLB games but posted decent numbers in those games.
Infield: Eric Hosmer (1B), Mike Moustakas (3B), Alcides Escobar (SS), Johnny Giavotella (2B), and Salvador Perez (C). Hosmer and Moustakas aren't getting traded. Both played well as rookies last year. The clear weakness here is up the middle at 2B and SS.
Pitching: Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Jonathan Sanchez are the top 3 starters, but frankly, the Orioles cannot afford to give up any pitching depth.
Enough of this, what's the damn trade?
Looking at current major league rosters and upcoming minor league prospects, I believe a simple trade for minor league players is the best for both teams.
Jake Odorizzi (RHP) for Jonathan Schoop (2B/SS).
Jake Odorizzi:
Odorizzi was the first round pick (#32 overall) of the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008. He was sent to the Kansas City Royals as part of the Zach Greinke trade. He is currently 21 years old.
John Sickels ranks Odorizzi as the #4 prospect and top pitching prospect in the Royals organization with a B+ grade. Odorizzi split last year evenly between high A and AA ball. His performance in the Carolina League was quite good with an ERA of 2.87, HR/9 0.5, BB/9 2.5, K/9 11.8, and BABIP of .360.
It seems he faltered a bit after being promoted to AA. ERA of 4.72, HR/9 1.7, BB/9 2.9, K/9 7.1 and BABIP of .260. I couldn't find a site that had his FIP so, using the basic calculation of FIP, Odorizzi had a -1.13 FIP (a result of lots of strikeouts with few HR's and BB) in high A and a 1.86 FIP in AA. An indication he still pitched well after being promoted. He also pitched a total of 146.3 innings over 27 starts extending his previous IP total by about 25 innings.
Jonathon Schoop:
Schoop was signed as a non-drafted FA by the Orioles in 2008. He is currently 20 years old.
Schoop is ranked by Sickles as the #3 prospect and #2 infield prospect in the Orioles organization. He split last season between A and high A ball. His OBP/SLG/OPS in Delmarva was .376/.514/.890. He was then promoted to Frederick mid-season and posted a .329/.375/.704.
He has played all over the infield but primarily played SS when Manny Machado was injured and was moved to 2B almost exclusively once Machado got better and Jason Esposito and Nick Delmonico were drafted as 3B prospects. The uncertainty of Brian Roberts return from those pesky concussions made the move to 2B the most sensible solution as well.
Why this works:
The simple answer is the Orioles need more pitching depth and the Royals need middle infield help. With the addition of Ryan Flaherty, Schoop has become more expendable with Ryan Adams and Robert Andino in the mix. The potential gain at pitching is bigger than the potential loss at 2B. I don' t think a return of Brian Roberts has much long term impact as Schoop is still a few years away from the MLB level.
The Orioles depth at pitching is atrocious at best. The loss of a starter means we get to see more guys like Jo-Jo Reyes on the mound. Odorizzi provides the good kind of depth the O's need and may be ready for the majors within 2 years.
Why it doesn't:
Jonathan Schoop is the best infield prospect the O's have behind Machado. The two of them could potentially shore up the middle infield for a long time. If by chance the Orioles young pitching turns it around next year, the need for pitching depth is not as bad as it looks now. A rotation of Britton/Arrieta/Matusz/Bundy/Tillman/Guts (in some form) would be the ideal situation and make Odorizzi less valuable than Schoop.
References:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/15/2490676/kansas-city-royals-top-20-prospects-for-2012
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/11/27/2589979/baltimore-orioles-top-prospects-for-2012
http://www.baseballprospectus.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com
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very interesting
KC strikes me as a fair matchup for Guthrie and a good matchup for Adam Jones.
Jones was my initial thought as a trade target
With Bubba Starling in the mix as a future OF, I didn’t think the Royals would give up prospects for a couple years of Jones. If KC thought they could make a playoff run, or was in the hunt, Jones and Guts would be the O’s best chips.
Not a reply fail at all...
… because it’s a good point.
Jones could be a trade chip for the Royals in July, though.
Chicago is setting up to lose 95 games in 2012. Minnesota is an organization in chaos. Cleveland looks like an up and comer, but realistically, could win anywhere between 65 and 95 games in 2012. Detroit is currently king of the division.
Kansas City, on the other hand, could be setting up to challenge Detroit. Frankly, I would pick Kansas City to finish second in the division, but I think the Royals will win 85-90 games and be a Wild Card contender towards the end of the season. Come July, if Kansas City is within 5 games of a playoff spot, I’d expect them to make a move to shore up a weak spot. If the Royals are contending, the O’s could potentially get a good haul for Jones and possibly Andino.
by Tezcatlipoca on Dec 23, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
It's a really good idea.
For some reason, teams almost never trade prospects to each other. I like the idea of trading AJ for a couple guys in their deep system. Not sure if they would be interested in two years of AJ. They have a couple interesting starters that are close to or ready for the majors. Some progression from Hosmer, Moustakas, and Gordon. They might be a pretty good team sooner than one might think.
Mother, did it need to be so high.
I can't get past this sentence
With the addition of Ryan Flaherty, Schoop has become more expendable with Ryan Adams and Robert Andino in the mix.
I still do not understand everyone’s obsession with Ryan Flaherty (or Ryan Adams). Schoop is on track to develop into a legit everyday starter. Flaherty, Andino, and Adams are all bench players.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
I don't think Flaherty's presence makes Schoop expendable either,
But I really like this trade. I’m not sure if the Royals would do it, but I think both are pretty valuable. Can a poll be added?
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
It wasn't meant to convey that Flaherty was the answer
I’m not too big on him either. More like.. we have a little more depth at middle infield, so we have time to sign and develop another guy after trading Schoop.
this is enough to scare me away from this trade
… Perhaps the vibe I’m getting is unwarranted, but Odorizzi has a Chris Tillman feel to me. Most prospect rankings have him higher, but his present stuff and projection don’t offer a high enough ceiling to ignore his struggles in Double-A.
i usually love prospect for prospect trades
But I know KC is really trying to stock pile their arms and they want to win very soon. I don’t see them letting go one of their pitching prospects who’s almost ready for A-ball player.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
FWIW
Schoop is a much, much better prospect than Ordorizzi. Schoop is a borderline top 50 prospect, Ordorizzi is on the cusp of the top 100. Not a good trade talent wise.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
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