29 Trades for 29 Teams: Texas Rangers

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 11:01 AM EST in Commentary & Analysis

Setting The Stage

Texas: The two-time defending American League Champions have been close to triumph two years running. There is a juggernaut that is looming within the division after the Angels backed up dumptrucks full of $100 bills in front of the houses of the best free agent hitter and the best free agent pitcher. Fate is fickle, and you never know when you will be back. Yu Darvish is probably coming to town, which is great, but it's time to shore up your weaknesses and man the battlements.

Baltimore: All hopes were pinned on the arrival of the cavalry. The cavalry finally arrived and those hopes have since died of dysentery. You now know there are no sure prospects, and that the only thing that can save this franchise is a steady stream of potential players, praying that out of enough quality prospects enough will stick. In the minors, outside of Dylan Bundy, Machado and Schoop, the cupboard is mostly bare. The team paid $87 million to players and lost 93 games in 2011.

The Trade

The Orioles receive:

2B Rougned Odor
RHP Tanner Scheppers
OF Jacob Skole
RHP Matt West

The Rangers receive:

OF Adam Jones
RHP Jim Johnson

The Rationale

They made the World Series, but there were holes in the Rangers ballclub along the way. There were a number of weak points, including the bullpen, which had a 4.11 ERA on the year. That's only slightly better than the 4.18 bullpen ERA that the Orioles managed, both among the worst int he league. Texas gave up some players for some rentals, but in the crucial game 6 of the World Series, they were still relying on the likes of 40-year old Darren Oliver, and Mark Lowe and Scott Feldman. Two of these trades involved the Orioles.

The Rangers also had weak production from first base, with Mitch Moreland getting 500 plate appearances and putting up a .733 OPS. Mark Reynolds might represent an upgrade here, but if the Orioles are going to get value for him in a trade, I don't think this is the best place to do it.

Another problem area for the Rangers was the outfield. 29-year old David Murphy received 440 plate appearances and managed a .729 OPS. Less time was given to the younger Craig Gentry and Julio Borbon, who also did not impress. Josh Hamilton can't play 162 games and only has a year remaining before free agency. The Rangers farm system has several international prospects slotted to play the outfield, including Leonys Martin, but their time hasn't arrived quite yet.

Recent real-world trades between the Orioles and Rangers have involved the O's taking players that Texas was getting ready to give up on anyway. Tommy Hunter, Chris Davis, Pedro Strop and Taylor Teagarden all fit into this category. Andy MacPhail's battlecry was getting "major league-ready" players, but what that really meant was he got players who'd appeared in the big leagues but mostly failed and thus didn't stick. We are driving a harder bargain here. We don't want the guys who are on the cusp of a DFA or an offseason non-tender.

In exchange for Jones and Johnson, we want potential. As we well know, right now the O's organization has virtually none. The Rangers are receiving two years of Jones at moderate cost, a good player who can allow Hamilton to man the less-demanding left field. He's also a player who could thrive in an environment where there is no expectation that he could or should be the best player on the team. Johnson has three cost-controlled years before free agency. He's been a workhorse for the Orioles, but shouldn't have to chew up as many innings on a better team. He gets a lot of ground balls.

After the O's re-assigned most of their professional scouting department, the joke was that they would be relying essentially on Baseball America and John Sickels prospect lists to scout players. For this trade, I have done precisely this. Recently, trading prospects has been a less efficient market, but, the Nationals did part with four players for Gio Gonzalez. The players the Nats gave up had grades of B+, B, B, and B- from Sickels.

I am deeming the Jones/Johnson combination to be worth four players in return, but not as high-quality as the ones the Nationals gave up for Gio. Three prospects for two solid MLB players seemed like too little to me, but four almost seems like too much. I've tried to balance this out by having the Orioles take on players with less polish or otherwise more risk involved.

Odor, a B prospect, signed out of Venezuela for $425,000 and played in low-A at age 17. The O's don't have a good 2B prospect deep in the minors. This isn't aiming at the very top of the Rangers system, but he's #5 according to Sickels. I don't know anything else about him except that his name is awesome and I want to hear Gary Thorne try to pronounce it on a nightly basis.

Scheppers is a B- prospect whom Sickels rated as the #11 Rangers prospect. He was drafted out of high school by the Orioles in the 29th round of 2005, but did not sign. He was also drafted by the Pirates in the 2nd round in 2008, but again did not sign. The Rangers took him with a supplemental first round pick in 2009, and he signed for $1.25 million. He was the #42 Baseball America prospect prior to 2010 and the #84 prospect prior to 2011. Scheppers has struck a lot of dudes out in the minors, but he'll be 25 next season and is described as having injury issues and command issues. Like, 4.2 BB/9 in AAA command issues.

Skole, another B- prospect, was a Rangers first round pick in 2010. Skole was drafted 15th with the compensation pick Texas received for failing to sign Matt Purke in 2009. He has the raw/toolsy label and is going to be just 20 years old next season. He is #15 in the Rangers system on Sickels' list. I've picked him because I thought the O's needed to get an outfielder back in this trade. This is something of a numbers game. The Rangers gave Skole $1.557 million to sign, which is a lot, but this July they gave $5M to OF prospect Nomar Mazara out of the DR and $3.5M to another DR outfield prospect, Ronald Guzman. That's not counting the $15.5M they gave to Martin, a Cuban defector, in May. Texas has the least invested in Skole, and that makes him the most expendable in this trade.

West is a C+ prospect. He used to play third base. He converted to pitcher after four years in professional ball. 2011 was his first season as a pitcher. West struck out 35 batters and only walked one in 26 innings at low-A Spokane. That is impressive, but he'll be 23 and just hitting high-A next season. Plus it was a really small sample size. So you know, Texas, we'll just go ahead and take your #23 prospect off your hands, and don't worry too much because he'll probably never amount to anything, especially not in our farm system...

Summary

The Orioles are giving up two known quantities in Jones and Johnson. In exchange, they are receiving two young and raw players who are by no means sure things, and two older prospects who project as relievers and have some risk involved - injuries/command issues in the case of Scheppers, and a recent conversion to pitcher by West. The Rangers receive two solid pieces where there is a need in their club's immediate future without completely having their farm system raided of its top-end talent.

The Scouting Reports (read: Baseball Reference Pages)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsji04.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=odor--002rou
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=schepp001tan
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=skole-001jac
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=west--002mat

The Verdict

You tell me.

Poll

What do you think about the hypothetical Jones/Johnson for prospects trade?

EME, you are a homer (Orioles advantage in trade)

14 votes

EME, you are an idiot (Rangers advantage in trade)

153 votes

EME, you have beginner's luck (mostly even)

21 votes

188 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 40 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I do think we need to focus on quantity over quality to beef up the farm system

As in, I’d rather get four B/C guys instead of one A prospect in a trade. Given that though, I still feel that with the years left under team control, especially for Johnson, we could get higher quality prospects than this. But what do I know?

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.

by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Dec 28, 2011 11:36 AM EST reply actions

I don't know anything either.

This trade was me trying to make my best guess, for fun. We can see what the people who voted in the poll think about it.

My thought process is that I don’t believe Adam Jones is going to fetch a top-end prospect. For this Texas trade, I assumed the O’s simply don’t have the pieces to get the best prospects (Profar, Perez) – although two years down the road when we’re talking about trading Britton and Wieters because we’re still bad, I do think that for either one of those guys we could demand to raid the top end of a good system.

Based on the kind of trades that are being made, I also don’t think that Jones would bring back two top-10 prospects from Texas, or three of the top 25. Jones isn’t going to be worth a Gonzalez haul or a Latos haul to Texas. So, to get at that quantity (with some quality, if not an A prospect) I threw JJ in there and tossed in a couple more.

It was really hard to resist the temptation to stick on Koji as a throw-in, because I don’t think he liked Texas and I don’t think Texas really liked him. But that would have made it too silly. I did try to take this trade seriously, though it’s clear that the voters don’t like my judgment. Haha.

That said, I don’t know that I would pull the trigger on this trade. I don’t think that the Orioles would either, because they think Jones is worth more than he is.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

If the O's aren't going to contend in 2012 and won't likely contend in 2013...

… should every single major league player current with the organization be traded, including Wieters, Britton, etc.?

If we shipped out absolutely everything we had, could we build a Kansas City-type farm system and have an actual shot of contending in 2015?

by Tezcatlipoca on Dec 28, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

YES!

If a guy’s value in trade is below where his actual value to the team might be in 2015/2016 (Britton?), then it’s okay to hold on to him. But essentially this should be the metric with every single player, every single trade: how does this move affect the 2015 Orioles?

It means that you can look forward to fielding teams like this for the next few years — but you know what? The Orioles have fielded teams that are almost that bad for a decade and a half.

Side note: it’s going to be harder to do this now than if the O’s had been sensible and done this back in 2000, thanks to the new screw-everyone-but-the-Yankees CBA. But as far as I can tell, it’s the only way out of fifth place.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

I could live with finally bottoming out with 100 losses on a team that's expected to suck.

Probably most of the people on this site could too, although we’d bitch about it. Attendance would tank, though, and I wouldn’t blame anybody for staying away at that point. People who remember the Syd Thrift demolition (which netted us Melvin Mora and nothing else – more of a happy accident than any real plan to get a great future player) and the Andy MacPhail failed rebuild of more recent memory will be gun-shy. Kicking even the illusion of mediocrity, let alone contention, that far down the road would be painful. Necessary, but painful.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

attendance is already pretty tanked, no?

And again, the problem with those plans is that they were half-assed. In 2000, Thrift traded Bordick and B.J. Surhoff (and the 812-year-old Will Clark, whee), but held on to Delino DeShields, Brady Anderson, Scott Erickson, and Mike Mussina (who left at the end of the season via free agency, anyway).

That, in essence, is why the team has been terrible for a decade and a half: their premier ‘rebuilding’ effort involved trading three guys.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

Attendance is down, but I don't think it has tanked.

I’d say it’s at a soft floor, but two years where we go in expecting to lose 100 games will crash it down further.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

I'm a year away from waving that white flag.

If our starting rotation’s not shaped up in 2012, I’ll be in trade everyone mode. Right now I’m willing to mulligan 2011 and give it another year.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

serious question: what do you think is a realistic upside projection for the Orioles in 2012?

80 wins? 85?

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

72 wins

unless matusz, Tillman, Jake take some huge step forward.

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Dec 28, 2011 4:02 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

If the pitching is somehow league average, I think they can be .500.

That will mostly hinge on whether players like Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta get back on some kind of development track rather than just being derailed into failure. The less that happens, the more it’ll slide back.

I’m feeling pessimistic enough to go under 70 wins right now, but not pessimistic enough to say we need to trade Britton and Wieters, I guess.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions

that'd be a 14-game pythag improvement to get to 81 wins

that’s the equivalent of adding two MVP candidates. And even then, where do you go from there? That’s still ~12 wins shy of realistic playoff contention, and that’s assuming the O’s max out their young pitchers.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

If I have my math right...

The O’s starters had a 5.39 ERA over 881 innings. If that was merely bad instead of astoundingly terrible – say a 4.50 ERA – that’s .89 fewer runs per 9 innings.

881/9 is 97.8 repeating (games), and that number times .89 runs/game is about 87 runs. If we slash a run per game from the starters, that’s still a 4.39 ERA but almost 100 runs fewer.

Now our hypothetical bad-but-not-terrible starters can throw more innings – 90 more innings from the starters would have been AL average – and cut out bullpen scrubs like Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Accardo and Josh Rupe (90.2 innings combined, like a 5.66 ERA) … you know, even if I take those 90 innings and shave the ERA that only gets us like 113 fewer runs allowed… which assuming a league average scoring offense (which the O’s had in 2011) still doesn’t get us to a .500 in Pythag.

Well, OK. But it’s closer, I guess. So maybe what I really meant was like 76 wins if most of the pitching is decent and not much of it goes completely awry.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

My only objection is Scheppers.

I’d rather replace him with a different player. The O’s have more than enough pitchers with command issues. I’d rather take a player with lower K/9 and BB/9 issues.

by Tezcatlipoca on Dec 28, 2011 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Scheppers was the last addition to the trade.

Other Texas pitching prospects with B grades: Robert Ross, Neil Ramirez, Cody Buckel, Roman Mendez

I assumed we would not get one of those guys in addition to Odor and the rest. If I’m the Orioles, I surely ask, but I think the response from Texas is laughter followed by hanging up the phone.

Pitching prospects with B- grades: Justin Grimm, Will Lamb, Kevin Matthews

I originally had Will Lamb, another convert to pitcher, but he was a 2011 draftee and thus couldn’t be traded right now. Same with Matthews.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

Admit it

You just picked the guys with the best names.

by Stacey on Dec 28, 2011 12:12 PM EST reply actions

There was a certain undeniable appeal to Rougned Odor.

Mostly though, he plays 2B and ranks about where I thought the top guy in a hypothetical Jones trade should rank.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

odor!

at first I thought you were giving kinsler a cute name.

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Dec 28, 2011 1:24 PM EST via Android app reply actions

After briefly consulting with a couple of posters on the Rangers SBN blog...

…one of whom said that the Rangers would “jump on that trade like a donkey on a waffle” (what?), I have voted myself an idiot.

I think I tried to avoid being a homer so much that I went too far in the other direction.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 1:46 PM EST reply actions

those crazy Texans

Although who doesn’t like waffles?

by Stacey on Dec 28, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's a Shrek reference

but I base this solely on the fact that on the back of my Bisquick box there’s a recipe for “Donkey’s Favorite Waffles!” and the Shrek logo.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's a fair trade

but I’m really high on Skole. Baltimore is probably about the worst place to fix Scheppers, even though there’s real potential there.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

I did consider that about Scheppers.

We don’t have a very good recent track record of cleaning up guys with command problems. I doubt it would be any better in the case of Scheppers, but he seems like the kind of guy where teams always think they can be the one to fix him up.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

I love that these trade proposals are getting run by other fans' blogs for validation.

Gives it more realism in terms of what to propose.

Good work, EME.

by Tezcatlipoca on Dec 28, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

you're asking for the wrong guys

if it’s position players you want, you should be asking for Jurickson Profar (ss), Mike Olt (3b), Leonys Martin (cf)

if it’s pitchers you’re after, you need to ask for Neil Ramirez and Martin Perez before you go sniffing around Tanner Scheppers.

by oc on Dec 28, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Profar and Leonys Martin are untouchable, you'd have to think

Maybe the Rangers trade Profar in a time of absolute dire need for a superstar (because they have Andrus at the MLB level), but I don’t see them parting with those guys in a “hey, wouldn’t this be neat” deal.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

profar must be untouchable?

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Dec 28, 2011 4:03 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

yup

it’s why I liked EME’s creativity in targeting Odor in this deal. He could flame out — that’s what 17-year-olds do! — but it’s a good way to get a guy who could completely untouchable next year.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I was considering Profar, Perez and Martin as not even being on the table for this deal.

Orioles fans wish Adam Jones was worth those guys.

It’s possible that Ramirez instead of Scheppers would work out. He’s younger but does have some recent injury history, so the O’s are still assuming some risk there in hopes of reaping the upside.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 28, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

Olt isn't a bad optimistic target

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

I found this link over at Camden Depot really interesting about Jones' trade value

Link.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Dec 29, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

If Jones alone is seriously going to fetch three players, A-, B+ and B, he should be traded last week.

Hopefully the scout who made that assessment has the GM’s ear.

"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP

by Eat More Esskay on Dec 29, 2011 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

I voted no,

Potentially because I am overvaluing Jones and Johnson. Given how far the Orioles are away, I think we should simply aim for the best prospects that we can get. I like Odor and Skole, but I would want a stronger prospect than Scheppers.

Way to show your work EME! I enjoyed reading the rationale!

I think the lesson learned in this exercise is how difficult this process really is.

If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever

by dfa on Dec 28, 2011 2:10 PM EST reply actions

by this time next year, Odor could be untouchable

17 in low-A with crazy tools AND the ability to play in the middle infield? That’s basically already Jonathon Schoop-level. If Odor just holds his own in full-season A-ball at age 18 this year, he’ll be a potential top 25 talent next year.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 28, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

i like trade.

we need that option in the poll.

Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"

by birdman on Dec 28, 2011 7:03 PM EST reply actions

I almost couldn't pull the trigger

on ‘advantage Rangers’ because you tied it to the idiot characterization. This is a fantastic read, with some really interesting ideas. I just think the return is a little light (not much, just a little) but I have no idea how to adjust the scale. So I’m right with dfa about the lesson learned.

Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08

by 33 on Dec 28, 2011 7:07 PM EST reply actions