CCC: Blow a bubble or let it pop?

The 2011 season started with the notion of another "Why Not?" season, but it ended and has continued this offseason with the hiring of Dan Duquette leaving us with, "Now What?" The Orioles front office has several key decisions they need to make and it does not involve a splashy addition of a major free agent like Prince Fielder or CJ Wilson that is not in reality for a team with fourteen straight losing seasons in the basement of the AL East.

These major decisions that need to be made include:

• When are we able to compete and who will be here in several years as the foundation?
• How do we bring back interest in our product as the "This is Birdland" campaign is terrible and the buzz for Buck is nearly gone?
• Are we interested in expanding our scouting and signing of international markets?

When are we able to complete and who will be here in several years as the foundation?

With a depleted minor league system and prospects that have floundered, the future is not here like we all had thought last year. The future may happen in another three to five years with the continued growth through the draft and a revamped scouting program. That leaves the question on who will not be here in those years due to age or players leaving through free agency.

Jeremy Guthrie seems like the most likely candidate to be moved during the Winter Meetings to obtain minor league prospects. Reports indicate that the Angels and Rockies are interested, but the issue that we get into with trading Guthrie is the innings he eats up preventing the bullpen from being overworked. With a young pitching staff of the Orioles, it’s enticing to just keep him in order to prevent that strain. But the move has to be made in order to compete in the future. The following prospects should be included in a trade

Angels: Mike Trout (CF) or

Jean Segura (2B/SS) and Garrett Richards (RHP)

Rockies: Nolan Arenado (3B) and Jhoulys Chacin (RHP)

How do we bring back interest in our product as the "This is Birdland" campaign is terrible and the buzz for Buck is nearly gone?

After "Guts", the trade options quickly dry up. But, there is one bubble that has continued to grow and grow. The question is do we let it pop now or do we let it keep growing. Of course I’m talking about Adam Jones, one half of the "2110" marketing campaign. I investigated options here for trades, but it’s not the right move for the Orioles. Buck Showalter is of high opinion on him and Adam Jones need to be marketed as the new face of the Orioles going forward. This needs to occur through a more dynamic community outreach in the city and counties with a coordinated effort with players from the past. Adam Jones needs to be the Oriole in the locker room pushing this effort and instilling the notion of the "Orioles Way". The front office should aim at completing this extension during January. A five year extension at $60 million would be applicable for this organization.

Are we interested in expanding our scouting and signing of international markets?

This should be an obvious yes and to kick it off it should begin with the signing of a major free agent for the Orioles. A press conference should be called regarding the development and restructuring of the Orioles International Scouting. At this conference, Yoenis Cespedes is ushered in as a newly signed member of the Baltimore Orioles. A highly coveted international player in the off season would bring attention to the Orioles and allow us to make a new start in the international market. A six year deal at $45 million is proposed.

Arbitration:

The following players should be tendered arbitration:

The following players should have arbitration declined:

Luke Scott is the most notable name not to be picked back up. His health concerns and sporadic hitting is of concern for a team rebuilding. As well, his politics are a distraction this organization doesn’t need any longer.

Free Agency:

With the trade of Guthrie, there needs to be a veteran pitcher signed during the offseason. While I would love to sign Mark Buehrle, it will not happen. I would look at Roy Oswalt with for a 2 year dear for 8 to 10 million per year with a 3rd year option that kicks in if he hits 300 innings total over the first two years. Other options would include Aaron Harang and Paul Maholm.

In order to meet the necessary Justin Duscherer quota for this offseason, I would advocate looking at Scott Kazmir or Brandon Webb for around 1 to 2 million for one year. If successful, they could compete for a 4th/5th rotation spot.

This leaves us the following for the 25 man roster:

Hitters (12):

Catcher – Matt Wieters

First Base – Mark Reynolds

Second Basemen – Brian Roberts

Shortstop – JJ Hardy

Third Base – Chris Davis

Left Field – Yoenis Cespedes

Center Field – Adam Jones

Right Field – Nick Markakis

Designated Hitter/Outfield – Nolan Reimold

Utility – Robert Andino (as long as he learns how to bunt)

Utility – Matt Antonili

Back-up Catcher – Taylor Teagarden

Starting Pitchers (5):
Zach Britton

Roy Oswalt

Tommy Hunter

Jake Arrieta

Brian Matusz

Relief Pitchers (8):

Kevin Gregg

Jim Johnson

Pedro Strop

Darren O’Day

Alfredo Simon

Chris Tillman

Brad Bergesen

Jason Berken

The wild cards here will be Tillman, Bergesen, Berken, and Matusz and will need to be moved between AAA and the 25 man roster dependent on Spring Training. If the Orioles are willing to sign another starting pitcher, then it would push the starting pitchers around with Matusz likely falling to maybe a rotating 5th pitcher slot. However, I believe this would push the salary to between $95 and 100 million and I don’t believe this to be a realistic target as it would be a major increase in salary from last year. With the late start to this off season, the signing of two free agents, a trade during the winter meeting, and an extension of your new franchise player along with a revitalization of your international scouting program would be a good (…not great) off-season for the Orioles.

Salary:

TOTAL: $86,646,667