Community Projections Results: The Rotation

Jake Arrieta: 27 GS, 159 IP, 4.24 ERA, 17 HR, 63 BB, 113 K, 1.36 WHIP

  • Five people predicted that Jake will finish 2010 with and ERA less than 4.
  • The highest ERA predicted was 4.87.
  • Luke E predicted Arrieta will only make 16 big league starts this year. I predicted the second least with 20. Nearly a third of the responders think that Arrieta will make at least 30 starts.

Brad Bergesen: 28 GS, 172 IP, 4.16 ERA, 19 HR, 45 BB, 94 K, 1.325 WHIP.

  • Alexw predicted that Bergesen would make only ten starts. He seems to be the only one who thinks Bergy won't get basically a full season in at the ML level, as the next least amount predicted was 24. 
  • Luke E, Westie, and HIO'sFan were all very optimistic about Bergy, predicting him to pitch between 195-200 innings with an ERA between 3.60 and 3.95. That's be amazing.
  • Not everyone is drinking the 3E1N flavor-aid, though. dfa predicts him to have a 5.14 ERA in 29 starts, the only entry more pessimistic than alexw.

Justin Duchscherer: 14 GS, 83 IP, 3.42 ERA, 8 HR, 25 BB, 64 K, 1.35 WHIP

  • Rick predicted that Duchscherer wouldn't pitch at all this season (I only included his numbers in GS and IP). Duck was almost as pessimistic, predicting the Duke would get in four starts.
  • Zsiv was the most optimistic of us, predicting Duke to make 19 starts with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.
  • Over a third of those who make predictions believe that Duke will make at least 18 starts. I hope you're right.

Jeremy Guthrie: 32 GS, 205 IP, 3.83 ERA, 25 HR, 55 BB, 124 K, 1.26 WHIP.

  • 3.83 happens to be the exact ERA that Guts put up in 2010, although with a much lower WHIP than predicted (1.16).
  • Only birdman seems to think that Guthrie will be traded or miss significant time with injury, giving him just 22 starts on the year. No one else predicted less than 27. 93% of the predictions have Guthrie making at least 30 starts.
  • 75% of us think that Guthrie will have an ERA of <4, something he has achieved two out of the last three years (the third year it was 5.04). I wasn't one of the optimists, pegging him at 4.16; only five people predicted a higher ERA.

Brian Matusz: 32 GS, 192 IP, 3.60 ERA, 17 HR, 60 BB, 163 K, 1.24 WHIP

  • Astronaut Mike Dexter predicted that Brian Matusz will pitch 230 innings in 34 starts. That's an average of 6.75 innings per start. Last year Matusz averaged just under 5.5.
  • Out of 63 responses, only 8 people believe Matusz will have an ERA of at least 4.00. The highest predicted was 4.19 by Typozzz. Five people predicted an ERA of less than 3, including Pickford who seems to think we'll be going with a four-man rotation (39 GS).
  • As a group we predicted Matusz will have a BB/9 of 2.81 and a K/9 of 7.64. Those are almost in line with the numbers he put up as a rookie in 2009 (they regressed slightly in 2010).

Chris Tillman: 19 GS, 109 IP, 4.35 ERA, 16 HR, 45 BB, 73 K, 1.40 WHIP

  • Predicting a 4.35 ERA for Chris is actually pretty bold considering his ML ERA is an ugly 5.61.
  • Only about 25% of us predicted Tillman will get almost a full year in (at least 25 starts). Almost the same amount believe he'll get 10 or less.
  • DougWilliamsSisters is hiiiigh, predicting Tillman to pitch to a 2.25 ERA. The next closest prediction is over at run higher at 3.42, and I think that one is ridiculous. O'sFan21, who isn't shy about his lack of faith in Tillman, thinks he'll get 17 starts and put up an ERA of 5.25.
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