Where is the Orioles' Extra 2% in their international efforts?
I have been reading Jonah Keri's new book, The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First, which details the creation, immediate fall, re-branding, and rise of the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays. It's a strong work (though the default comparisons to the legendary Moneyball don't feel right), and would be a good choice for the sometimes discussed Camden Chat Book Club.
I picked up the book because I was genuinely interested in the behind-the-scenes stories of Andrew Friedman and company, but I was also interested in something Keri had said in an ESPN chat. He said that he thought of the book as a "blueprint for the Blue Jays and the Orioles". And indeed I have found a few anecdotes that I think have meaning for the rebuilding Orioles. One in particular has stuck in my craw for the past few days:
In 2001, the Devil Rays had the third overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft, behind Minnesota (who took Joe Mauer) and the Cubs (who took Mark Prior). The D-Rays scouts wanted to take Mark Teixeira third overall, but Tex was of course advised by Scott Boras in the draft and was going to require all kinds of money to sign a contract. Teixeira later did sign for $9.5 million dollars - a positional player record he still holds today.
The Devil Rays' owner, Vince Naimoli, objected to the price tag and Tampa instead took Dewon Brazelton (whoever that is). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was blowing $9 million a year on pitcher Wilson Alvarez, who was hurt and not playing. The D-Rays blew $8 million a year on Greg Vaughn and $7 million on Vinny Castilla. They had just gotten out from a $6 million commitment to Roberto Hernandez. But the price tag for Mark Teixeira was too high for the Devil Rays.
Is there anything worse, more frustrating for a fan to hear? Is there anything more damning of a front office?
One of the criticisms of the Orioles off season this year has been that their increased spending efforts on the major league roster prohibits them from spending more money on amateur players. A lot of the regulars on this very website have scoffed at that notion, and with good cause. The $8 million that Peter Angelos is paying to Vlad Guerrero was obviously not being taken out of what he plans on paying for the newly drafted Orioles this summer. There is no reason to believe that the budget for the roster and the budget for the draft are directly related in the Orioles set-up.
Still, even if a lower major league payroll would not have opened Vince Naimoli's wallet for Mark Teixeira, the fact remains in stone that Tampa's priorities were on major league spending and specifically not on amateur spending. The difference between saying "We aren't breaking the bank for any draftees" and saying "This is your total budget for all baseball operations, but we're not using it on the draft" is semantics. Either way you still aren't allocating resources towards bringing in amateur talent.
Of course, Andy MacPhail will be the first person to tell you how important spending on the draft is and that the Baltimore Orioles, over the past three years, have spent more on draftees than all but three teams (which unfortunately includes the Boston Red Sox). It would be a huge surprise to see the Orioles spend even a penny less on the 2011 draft than they did in 2010.
Fortunately, the check-the-price-tag thinking of the 2001 D-Rays is not only an antique of the business, but one which the casual fan is becoming aggressively sensitive to as well. Orioles scouting director Joe Jordan is still answering questions about why he took the cheaper Matt Hobgood over the better Tyler Matzek (or several other options) - and that was two years ago.
There is, however, another story to tell about amateur spending that isn't nearly as kind to Andy MacPhail and the Baltimore Orioles. In the summer of 2009, the Orioles were working out a Dominican free agent named Miguel Sano extensively. Sano was considered amongst the international talent evaluation journalists to be one of the strongest Dominican prospects ever, though of course he was only 16 years old and, as John Sickels put it, Sano "might turn into Miguel Cabrera, could fizzle in A-ball, no way to know yet".
Sano, you might already know, signed with the Minnesota Twins that September for 3.15 million dollars. Reportedly, only two other teams even made an offer to the kid, with the Pirates offering $2.6 million and the Orioles bringing up the rear at $2.5 million. The Pirates were frustrated, having not had an opportunity to up their offer, but Jorge Arangure reported that Baltimore was given the chance to match the offer and sign Sano. Andy MacPhail declined.
Sano is now one of the top prospects in all of baseball, akin perhaps to Manny Machado on top 100 lists. Three months after he signed with Minnesota, the Orioles gave Garret Atkins $4.5 million. Like I said, the two things aren't directly related, but the difference between the Orioles saying "We want to spend this money on Atkins, not Sano" and the Orioles saying "We don't want to spend this money on Sano" and then later "We want to sign Atkins" is semantics. They don't have Sano in either case, and they don't show the proper interest in the international market in either case.
More damningly, the Orioles haven't shown any outward signs of having felt burned by their penny-pinching international spending. When pressed on the subject this winter, Andy MacPhail offered excuses about buscóns and the difficulty in scouting Dominican teenagers nowadays. Meanwhile, there is also minimal effort shown in major talent producing countries like Venezuela or in new frontiers like Europe or Brazil. Frankly, it's all just unacceptable.
The thesis to Jonah Keri's book is that in the AL East the Rays need to take every single advantage they can possibly find, no matter how small, because the challenge in front of them is as large as any in all of professional sports. The Orioles are in the same boat, but they have so far insisted on trying to tackle the Yankees and the Red Sox with one hand tied behind their back. And I'm worried that in a few years, we're going to see a lot of stories just like the one about the Devil Rays passing on Mark Teixeira, but with the Orioles passing on the next foreign-born superstar. And there's little more frustrating than just powerlessly waiting for those stories.
60 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think I'm in the put all international players in the draft camp
Because signing a 16 year old to a 3+ million dollar deal is just ludicrous to me. True, he is a top prospect now, but he still has a good amount of time before he hits the majors, anything can happen between now and then.
The baseball draft is so tricky, because “can’t miss” guys still take years to advance through a team’s system, subjecting them to potential injury concerns or simply them not having what it takes to make it in the bigs. This can make a team hesitant to go after a guy who demands big bucks if they’ve been burned before.
yeah,
Sano was/is basically a lottery ticket. Not a viable long-term strategy. For every prospect like him, there are a bunch of others with age/ability questions from the DR who never pan out.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and a little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
true but giving an 18 year old draftee at least $3M is par for the course
They’re just as risky.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
but are age issues put to bed w/ sano?
i feel like this is macphail’s issue w/ buscones. the manner in which they shield prospects from scrutiny inhibits the type of due diligence he’d like to do. i don’t think that excuses a lack of activity elsewhere, but if you’re dropping 3 mill for a 16 year old that hits like a 21 year old, he damn well better be 16 not 21.
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
by j.q. higgins on Mar 16, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but it's gotta stop somewhere, 5-10 million is ridiculous for a baseball player being drafted
it’ll never happen, but a slotting system would be nice
it might happen
new CBA this year…I’m definitely keeping an eye on what happens with the draft.
Free Chris Tillman!
It would be nice, definitely help even the playing field
I’m just afraid it’s as much of a pipe dream as a salary cap. I had no idea MLB was due for a new CBA, thanks for the info.
we'll see
Michael Weiner, the new union head, once referred to a hard-slot as a salary cap, which sounds like it ain’t gonna happen, but you never know.
I’m also not sure if a hard slot will help or hurt the Orioles. It’ll reduce draft budgets, that’s for sure. It could also hurt baseball as a high school and college sport. Those two-star athletes are going to be a lot less willing to give up football and basketball if baseball delays their payday and forces them to spend two years riding greyhounds in Carolina. And will a high school star taken in the fourth round be less willing to sign in leiu of going to college with hopes of upping their draft bonus?
Free Chris Tillman!
Good points
I’m thinking maybe just setting a cap per round or something along those lines? Say 1st rounders top out at 4 mil bonus, 2nd round 3, 3rd 2, 4th and beyond 1….probably not the perfect scenario, but you get the general idea.
I dunno, I think Andrew's argument is that it is not ridiculous
Whatever you were willing to pay for the opportunity of Atkins, you should be equipped to pay for a younger, unproven higher upside player.
yeah
the risk of signing Sano is terribly non-trivial of course, but in my eyes, even at the time it seemed like the risk of spending even the exact same amount of cash on Garret M. F. Atkins was way, way, way higher. This is a game about balancing risk and reward, and the Orioles not only missed the basket but accidentally set the ball on fire, too, with that one.
Free Chris Tillman!
But Atkins was a proven MLB vet
even though most people thought he was done at that point, there was a chance he could contribute immediately. Paying players 5+ million in the hopes they turn into a solid player 3-5 years down the line is crazy.
I think the point being made here is that thinking that way is exactly the problem
Because the common knowledge is that it is crazy, as you say.
The evidence seems to be more and more shaking towards, “yeah it’s higher risk, but it definitely isn’t crazy.”
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Mar 16, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
No it isn't
The reason why is because the payoff to paying the amateur player $5+ million is so high if they pan out. You get three seasons of that player at the major league minimum, and another three to four years of them at a price determined by an arbitrator. And those seasons are generally their most valuable seasons.
With players like Atkins, you end up paying $5 million in the hopes of getting $5 million in value. With amateur players, you are hoping to get $30-50 million in value. If one $5 million dollar amateur pans out, it can pay for half a dozen busted prospects who signed for similar money.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
If this is true
why do so many teams shy away from guys who are expected to demand big bonuses in the draft?
Well, fewer and fewer nowadays
I can count on one hand now the teams that still refuse to draft Boras clients or spend big bonuses in the draft still on an annual basis. But basically, you had an inefficient marketplace, and some teams were slower than others to adjust, mostly because of irrational ownership. But market forces are making this irrationality clear, and teams have, by and large, adjusted.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I think, for the most part, the bonuses are ok
But it’s a slippery slope, as we’ve seen with top NFL picks getting 50 million guaranteed. I’d hate to see it keep growing until it takes 25 million just to draft a guy in baseball who may or may not be a quality player in 3-4 years.
Paying any amount of money without getting a corresponding value ...
… in performance is crazy. However baseball (and other pro sports) do not operate under normal rules. Predicting future performance is still a matter of luck, mixed with doses of past performance (or if a young guy, gut feeling) and more and more these days more in depth analysis. I am in the school of thought that think luck is the biggest determining factor, but that you can improve your odds by hiring talent evaluators and developmental staff with proven track records. The more the better.
If it were my money, I’d be less concerned over how much I’m spending on individual vets, draft picks or or international guys. My focus would first be on investing in building the best scouting and development infrastructure. That way, when one of my guys says this guy is a good risk – reward bet, I am more comfortable forking over the cash.
While democracy must have its organization and controls, its vital breath is individual liberty.
- Charles Evans Hughes
You are more likely to be hit by lightening than to win the lottery
Sano is a much better bet than a lotto ticket. All international prospects are. There is risk, of course. Risk that can be mitigated by quality scouting and minor league instruction. But the risk isn’t wild. The players who get multi-million deals in international free agency get them because it is a market price; the scouts of many teams all agree that this player has the potential to be special. That lots of teams wanted Sano is itself evidence of his talent. Sure, he isn’t a sure bet. As Jeffrey Hammonds and so many other top prospects have proven, no one is.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
How ridiculous was it...
…when the Nationals signed the barely 17 year old Bryce Harper to a much bigger deal? How ridiculous was it when the Orioles signed the 17 year old Manny Machado to one of the biggest bonuses in draft history just a year ago?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Very ridiculous.
Both of those guys are 2+ years away from making it to the bigs. Who knows how well they progress through the minors, they could end up being busts just as easily as being worth huge bonuses. Giving guys that young that much money is dangerous lifestyle-wise as well. Not all guys that young can handle the fame and fortune.
I’m not saying they shouldn’t get some kind of bonus, just that there needs to be some kind of limit to it. Teams like the Orioles and Pirates and Royals should be able to draft anyone they want to help their team get back to being competitive without worrying about not being able to sign the guy. The argument that these athletes will just go play other sports instead is bad, in my opinion, as well, because they aren’t going to go anywhere within the next couple years and make money anyway. The ones in college are going to spend less time in the minors and won’t have to worry about it, either.
Why should there be a limit to it?
The players are already undervalued – they are forced to accept the league minimum for three seasons, then to have a salary determined by an arbitrator for another three seasons.
The players have rights. Those rights are more important than what is best for baseball. It also happens that I believe letting the players have these rights is also what is best for baseball. The Orioles, Pirates and Royals have all been among the top spenders in the draft in recent years, including top bonuses to top picks and overslot bonuses in the later rounds. They recognize that not only are they not being penalized in the draft for being small market teams, but indeed that this is the most economically advantageous way for them to spend their money. It is a bargain for them, and they know it. What is the reason why we should make it even more of a bargain for teams?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Well I'd rather see a change to the service time/arbitration process
before allowing draft bonuses to spiral out of control. If a player is playing well at the MLB level, he deserves to be paid for it. I hate that Guthrie has really yet to have a chance to earn his market value. So many guys perform so well while still under the years of team control and have injuries/ineffectiveness prevent them from earning their money in free agency.
Joe Jordan just admitted that the Hobgood pick was basically a money saver, and the Orioles are in desperate need of improving this team through the draft.
Oh give me a break!
What rights are the players entitled to? The right to play baseball? Or the right to the highest salary and bonus they (or their agents) can get from the teams? What is the minimum salary now? It was $400,000.00 in 2009. That’s more than I’ll earn in 10 years. Don’t give me a boo hoo story that they have to accept the minimum salary for 3 years before they can file for arbitration.
The person who introduced Andrew to baseball and the O's
With no disrespect....
How many people in the U.S. can do your job versus how many people can play shortstop at a MLB-level of play?
And I’m betting no one pays to see you work. At least I hope not, for Andrew’s sake. :)
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
by duck on Mar 17, 2011 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's ok -
there are thousands of people who can do my job, that wasn’t my point. The point is that earning hundreds of thousands of dollars is not a “right”. Neither is earning millions of dollars. besides, even Andrew makes more than I do – I’m a poor government worker!
The person who introduced Andrew to baseball and the O's
You mean
you’re one of the wealthy government fat cats with your cushy pensions and higher-than-private-sector salaries getting rich off our tax dollars and driving up our deficit!
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I almost laughed
when I went to the pension protest Monday in Annapolis – 20 dudes with signs and pig masks, calling teachers greedy for wanting the state to actually fund out pensions. Not one of them would do my job at twice the pay.
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
The right to freely sell their labor
Seems to me we fought a war against our own citizens about this issue. It is kinda important.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I agree with your article.
The Orioles are badly mis-managed when it comes to international prospects. It simply makes little sense to almost totally ignore that market. Garret Atkins turned out to be a bust. OK I get it. So does MacPhail and Angelos. Guerero or Lee could be bad moves too. They are trying to improve the club and sometimes it doesn’t work out. Hobgood may be a bust too. They didn’t plan that to happen that way, though. The refusal to invest internationally is a choice, though; and a really misinformed mistake that should be corrected immediately. Refusing to up the ante on Sano, Aroldis Chapman and the Japanese shortstop (can’t spell it) is shameful mismanagement when the money is there. Not having scouts in the Carribean is just plain stupid.
Seriously, is there any other organization
that can say they have developed talent from Aruba or Curacao for that matter. I think not.
andruw jones is from curacao.
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
by j.q. higgins on Mar 16, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I took the liberty of having my craw removed years ago so that I could sleep at night.
I think Angelos can easily afford that money for international scouting, but there may be some backwards thinking in how they think the kids are presented to them now, ie. those fenced in spots.
When in Rome, do as the Romans do. When in Baltimore, do as I tell you to.
by NSOsFan on Mar 16, 2011 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
this is similar
to keith law’s knock on us in the article from the other day.
maybe we can hire sir sid to head up some scouting for us down in his native aruba, i bet he’d make a pretty good agent too, you know willing to fight (judges) for his clients.
"you know what the orioles could use right now? a day off." - joe angel
Is this the 'extra 2%'?
The thesis to Jonah Keri’s book is that in the AL East the Rays need to take every single advantage they can possibly find, no matter how small
A small advantage is an ‘extra 2%’? The otherwise excellent content of this post doesn’t contextualize the question that is its title.
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
I haven't read the book
but I read an interview with him in the NYT the other day and his 2% point was that the Rays try to look for a 2% advantage over everybody else in every single thing they do – the draft, international signings, free agent signings, hosting more concerts than anybody else after games to drum up ticket sales, etc. They aren’t looking for earth-shattering new ideas, just slight advantages that they can gain in lots of different areas. That’s what I took away from it.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
sorry 33
I just re-read this and you’re totally right. OF21 is right, though: the Rays’ driving theory is to grab as many 52-48 advantages instead of accepting 50-50 odds as possible, and they look for as many little ways to grab that extra 2% because they really, really need it. The Orioles do, too, since they’re looking up at the Big Boys (and the Rays)….but where is Baltimore’s Extra 2%?
Free Chris Tillman!
I think you all are missing the point of this post
and the point is: Camden Chat Book Club
Free Chris Tillman!
start one! Show some gumption!
I have this book but I haven’t read it yet. I’m still reading The Garfoose’s book and some silly chick lit.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
I have a more exciting venture that I'm helping spearhead
someone else needs to run with the bookclub
Free Chris Tillman!
I submit any of Jay Johnstone's books.
When in Rome, do as the Romans do. When in Baltimore, do as I tell you to.
Ecclesiastes 3.1
This would be a cool thing, but this is not its season.
The season for a CC Book Club is the off season, when we’re jonesing for substance to talk about.
Hit me up a week after the last out of the WS and I might be game to run one. (Creek don’t rise, etc)
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
by 33 on Mar 16, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
A very good point.
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
I've read "Scorecasting" and treading "The Book" now
At some point, we’re just gonna have to make “Weaver on Strategy” required reading.
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
The Book's tough stuff
I’m as into that sort of thing as anyone and it’s still just a bit of a slog. It’s great information, though. I wish I could just insert it straight into my brain like in the matrix
Free Chris Tillman!
I'm picking and choosing chapters
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
I still haven't opened The Book
which I got for my birthday. I’ll get there.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
ha!
i was thinking that any proposed book club HAS to start w/ weaver on strategy.
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
by j.q. higgins on Mar 17, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Do they have pictures?
I stay away from books that don’t have pictures.
I particularly like the ones where you can choose your own colors for the pictures.
While democracy must have its organization and controls, its vital breath is individual liberty.
- Charles Evans Hughes
I'd be down
FYI – I just picked up the drunkard’s walk based on your rec, but the damn wife stole it before I could start it.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Evaluating talent in dollars
I was pretty bummed that the Orioles didn’t sign Sano. I’m very discouraged with the Orioles not allocating more resources in certain areas, notably Korea and Venezuela (though there are some extenuating circumstances and the team has signed a few kids from there recently). However…isn’t it true that the team has to put a dollar amount on a kid like Sano? The team put a dollar amount on Hector Veloz last July. Who knows if it was too high or too low? I guess what I’m saying is that the Orioles need to commit more resources in Latin America, but I’m somewhat cautious of using Sano as an example (and like I said, I wanted the Orioles to sign him, but I’m not qualified to evaluate how much he was worth). And really, this also goes to the point of how much faith do the Orioles have in their scouts down there? I wouldn’t have much, as I can count on one hand the amount of actual Latin prospects the Orioles have signed in the last decade (not actual major leaguers, but actual prospects).
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Why is this true?
There is no reason to believe that the budget for the roster and the budget for the draft are directly related in the Orioles set-up.
There is every reason to believe that this is true; money is fundamentally fungible and not unlimited. Until and unless there is evidence that it isn’t true, we should presume that it is. To do otherwise simply doesn’t make sense.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I mean directly related as in
If the Orioles had not signed Vlad we could expect them to pour the eight million dollars into the draft budget, and consequently that if they had spent the bare minimum in the draft over the last few years that they would have gone out and signed Carl Crawford or some shit. Money is fungible, but I haven’t seen any proof that baseball teams actually treat it that way.
Free Chris Tillman!

by 



















