Jeremy Guthrie vs. Brian Matusz: Who should be the Opening Day starter?
by Stacey on Mar 4, 2011 11:30 AM EST
in Commentary & Analysis
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The Opening Day starter in baseball is not that important in the grand scheme of things, but the naming of that starter is symbolic of who the team believes will be the leader of the rotation. Rotations are supposed to be organized from best to worst starting pitcher, of course, but please raise your hand if you think Kevin Millwood was the best pitcher on the Orioles last year. Anyone? No. He was named the OD pitcher because of his experience and because the Orioles were trying to sell us on his ability to mentor the young rotation into success.
Prior to Millwood's arrival, Jeremy Guthrie was given the ball as the team ace in 2008 and 2009, but will he be given that honor again in 2011? Guthrie is the longest tenured Oriole in the starting rotation, and aside from a substandard 2009 has been quite good for the team since joining the rotation in 2007. Other than Justin Duchscherer he is the oldest member of the rotation and his 122 career games started are just five less than the combined number of starts made by Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman. Of the pitchers in competition for the 2011 starting rotation, one could say that Guthrie has the best pedigree for the position of 2011's #1 starter. But does that mean he should get the job?
Guthrie has been a good pitcher for the Orioles, a bright spot in seasons when we didn't have much to enjoy about the team. But the tide is turning to a new set of pitchers, and what better way is there to show that they've arrived then by naming the OD starter as Brian Matusz? Who better to lead the new generation of pitchers into what is hopefully going to be a season where the Orioles are significantly better than they were in the past?
The smart money is on Brian Matusz being the best pitcher on the team in 2011, and it might not even be a close race. Through the final three months of the regular season last year, the Orioles went 13-3 in starts made by Matusz. His ERA in those sixteen starts was 3.62 and batters hit .225/.304/.359 against him. His K/9 was a touch over 8, his BB/9 3.5. He'll be twenty-four years old on Opening Day and could feasibly be the OD starter for years to come, anchoring the staff throughout his twenties.
By the way, so that you don't think I'm trying to hoodwink you regarding Matusz vs. Guthrie, I offer up the fact that Guthrie's stats were a little better than Matusz's over the time frame I mentioned above. Guthrie held opponents to a .241/.294/.404 hitting line with a 3.38 ERA. He also pitched 24 more innings in the same number of starts. My intention in citing them wasn't to say that Matusz buried Guthrie in performance, but rather to point out that he got better as the year went on, and it's just another thing to add to his age, his upside, and the fact that he does symbolize a better and brighter future for the Orioles.
I like Jeremy Guthrie. If the Orioles decide to anoint him OD starter I certainly won't have a problem with it. But to an extent Guthrie represents the past as much as Matusz represents the future. If Matusz is ready to take his place at the top of the rotation, 2011 is a good time to start.
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Definitely Guts
I don’t think anyone is doubting Matusz’s upside and potential. The kid has definitely arrived. But for as high as everyone is on him (and rightly so), he still has only made 40 major league starts. Give it another year, and if he does what we all know he can do, he will be anointed the 2012 opening day starter.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
Guts has earned...
give Matusz something to shoot for next year.
"If you know how to cheat, start now." - Earl Weaver
Agreed.
The early polls are reporting Guts in a landslide
"No Atlantis is too underwater or fictional!"
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Mar 4, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Why the hell not put Matusz in?
He’s proved himself enough. I think throw him in the deep end so he can learn to swim. He needs pressure if he’s going to be a player in the AL East.
Scientists believe that the first human being to live 150 years has already been born. I believe I am that human being.
"Why the hell not?" is not a good argument
In fact, this is kind of a terrible argument.
“He’s proved himself enough.”
He’s started 40 MLB games and was only really consistent for about 3 months total.
“Throw him in the dep end so he can learn to swim.”
We have all seen in recent years how mishandling pitching prospects can pan out. When you throw people into the deep end, most of them drown.
“He needs pressure if he’s going to be a player in the AL East.”
Well, yes. But he would need to be able to handle pressure no matter what division he played in. And he will be subjected to pressure plenty without being prematurely thrown into the #1 rotation spot. The two don’t really have a whole lot to do with one-another.
I really don’t think anyone is doubting what we all know Matusz CAN do. But the simple fact is that he has yet to really actually DO much of it just yet. Don’t let optimism and excitement blind logic.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
Well, it doesn't hurt to try.
That’s all I was saying.
Scientists believe that the first human being to live 150 years has already been born. I believe I am that human being.
And what I was saying
Is that it actually very well could hurt to try.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
Also
love the Parks & Recreation reference in the signature.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
Thanks :)
We can agree on that.
Scientists believe that the first human being to live 150 years has already been born. I believe I am that human being.
Why does he need more pressure?
There are time to throw players into the deep end, but those times are usually out of desperation. Fore example last year when we brought up bell even though he wasn’t doing well in the minors. We brought him up because we got a decent offer for Tejada. That didn’t turn out well.
And I’m not saying that he would for sure flop as the opening day starter, but why would you put more pressure on him than we have to? I don’t know if you have ever played on a sports team and had to have a lot of pressure on you, but it makes doing the same things harder, and why would we make this year harder for brian when all signs are pointing to him having a break out year??
"Puttin' clams on ice," dmoney
I don't think it's about pressure
It’s about saying to him, this is your team, your rotation, and we know you can handle it.
It’s not a big deal to me either way, if he doesn’t start this year he’ll get his chance next year.
It’s nothing like Josh Bell. Bell wasn’t ready for the majors; Matusz has proven that he is ready and ready to be awesome.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
I agree completely...
He’s ready.
Scientists believe that the first human being to live 150 years has already been born. I believe I am that human being.
not saying it is exactly the same as bell
and of course he won’t fall flat on his face like bell did if he gets the opening day start. But he was “a little antsy” during his spring training start this week, and do we really want a kid who is nervous in spring training taking the ball opening day?? I really just don’t see it helping him at all, and I could very well see it hurting him.
"Puttin' clams on ice," dmoney
Just because it's not "about" one thing or another
doesn’t mean that it won’t be a latent effect of making him the opening day starter. Just because you say it’s only about saying to him, this is your team, your rotation, doesn’t mean that the only effect of making him opening day starter would have is to make it clear to him that this is his team/rotation.
Don’t get me wrong, I agree with you that it’s not really a big deal either way. But just because it’s not a big deal either way doesn’t necessarily mean that either choice is the correct one. It would be completely premature to have someone with such limited experience top any rotation.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
When Jeremy Guthrie was the OD starter in 2008
He’d made 27 career starts.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
at the same time Danny Cabs had 82
how irresponsible to let Guts go ahead of him.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
cabs vs today's guthrie
i think we can c a difference… one sucked and one is good. not really the same
"Puttin' clams on ice," dmoney
Of course there is a difference
But he said it’s “completely premature to have someone with such limited experience at the top of any rotation.” I was just using the same narrow scope that he did.
Also, at the risk of sounding like a bitch, please spell out your words here. Thanks.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
Using the same narrow scope that I was
Does as much for your argument as it did for mine. However, my argument did not live and die by that one point. OD starter is largely ceremonial and you don’t boot out Guts in favor of Matusz until it becomes overwhelmingly obvious to do so.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
the only point I was trying to make
Was that it’s kind of silly to say someone should not be an Opening Day starter based on their # of starts.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
by Stacey on Mar 4, 2011 1:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Caught being silly, in that case.
But IMO Guts is the right call for OD starter regardless
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
And to reiterate what I said before
I don’t think anyone is doubting Matusz’s upside and potential. The kid has definitely arrived. [removes narrow-scope line about his 40 career starts]. Give it another year, and if he does what we all know he can do, he will be anointed the 2012 opening day starter.
The bottom line is that Matusz has been consistent in the rotation for about a total of 3 months in his career as of yet. Give him time to perform consistently up to the potential that he very obviously has, and then we’ll talk in 2012.
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
Ok
I thought blogs were informal, but I guess I was wrong. If it will help you get through the day I will write my words out.
"Puttin' clams on ice," dmoney
It will help me, thanks!
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
by Stacey on Mar 4, 2011 2:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You had a shit on when you came in here.
NO SHIRT
NO SHOES
NO DICE
Right. Learn it. Know it. Live it.
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
Why are you discriminating against D&D players?
"You can always tell Yankees fans by the total vacancy which occupies the space where most other people have faces." - J. K. O'Toole (paraphrased)
by Eat More Esskay on Mar 4, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
HEAR THAT? THAT'S MY SKULL!!!!!
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
were you watching vh1 today?
power block of fast times and blues brothers.
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
competition
Well I think we can all agree that if we didn’t have Guthrie Brian would be the OD starter, and he probably would have been in 2008. Guthrie beat out: Cabrera, Loewen, Traschel and Burres (not sure about burres). I would have picked Guthrie or Matutz that year over the rest of that rotation… haha
"Puttin' clams on ice," dmoney
and when guthrie was made OD starter
what was the alternative option?
"Here's a bold prediction: The Orioles will go undefeated in games this year in which Guerrero drives in the 10th run."
Voted for Matusz.
Now I know what it must have felt like to vote for Alf Landon in ’36.
"I believe in Earl Weaver's 'Big Inning Theory of Baseball.' The game was created by a Boog Powell three-run shot. You can look it up."
by Emperor Lrrr on Mar 4, 2011 12:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Or Mondale in '84....
NO, I wasn’t old enough yet, thank you very much.
"Don't be intimidated by other teams. You guys got bubble gum cards, too. Let's go." - Buck Showalter
I appreciate your rationale but...A WARNING...
…I don’t think the OD assignment goes to the flatout best pitcher in the rotation, albeit in most cases, that’s who it would go to. I think it’s a mixture of a lot of factors, of which statistics are only a part of it. It’s a significant part, but not the overriding factor in our case.
Most people right now feel that Matusz is the best pitcher in the rotation, and it’s just a matter of time that that emerges statistically. This time next year, all of this might turn out to be true, but unfortunately, making him the Opening Day starter today could throw up some awkward clubhouse hierarchies (See Veteran Michael Young being pushed to other positions by rookies), and may disgruntle some veterans, perhaps forcing their eventual exit inevitable.
If it’s such a empty symbolic gesture anyways, why possibly threaten chemistry over it?
That said...
…I plan and hope Matusz will eventually be the clear-cut Opening Day choice, and this kind of discussion is essentially meaningless, since it’s just so obvious.
The only veteran in line to get disgruntled
would be Guts, and that doesn’t really seem like his style.
They don't have to be good. They just have to be there. - EME
You would be surprised..
..Ostensibly, you are right. It’s just Guthrie who might get disgruntled, but this kind of thing can be pretty unpredictable sometimes.
Some veterans, are sensitive to internal clubhouse cliques and hierarchies. I remember in the 80s, after Eddie left, a lot of subtle issues came out about how some young guys were handled and made him sour a little, and other vets felt disrespected. At the end of the day I don’t believe in treating players like pampered kids, but I also think it takes someone who is able to make good reads about the clubhouse to make these kinds of decisions.
Guts
As intriguing as it would be to see a David Price/Brian Matusz matchup on OD, I’m voting for Guthrie. It’s more of a ceremonial honor than anything. Guthrie and Matusz will both get the same number of starts either way, assuming health.
Guthrie. Matusz will get the ball next year.
I think Matusz is the better pitcher on any given day, but let’s not kid ourselves here: we’re not contending in 2011. I like a lot of the moves Andy made this winter, but Arrieta, Tillman, 3E1N, and Britton (since he won’t get a call up before August unless someone goes down early) are still a season away from having it all click for them. Matusz is the only one of the kids I expect to be good-to-great wire to wire this year. Let him get a feel for winning this season before you hand him the ball for a more pressure-packed “statement game”, which is what OD is.
"Look, we all deal with Lou Montanez in our individual ways."-Andrew_G
by NoTimeForLove, Dr. Jones! on Mar 4, 2011 3:39 PM EST reply actions
I voted Matusz
I don’t really think it matters at all, nor do I particularly care what happens, but gun to my head I view Matusz as the leader of this pitching staff at this point.
FROG SAYS PROTECT HOME
I'm going with Ryan Drese
Wildcard, bitches!!!
I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj
by Christopher Claxton on Mar 4, 2011 6:24 PM EST reply actions
matusz may be the most talented pitcher we have
and may be the best pitcher on the team this year, but Guts has earned it. he was the best last year, and has the experience to handle it. if we don’t have to throw matusz completely to the wolves, why would we?
"I have spent most of the day putting in a comma and the rest of the day taking it out." --Oscar Wilde
Toss up
Guts has earned it, but Brian is going to be filthy this year and everybody knows it. I’m not worried about too much pressure on him. At the Trop? What are they going to do? Throw AARP cards at him? All 15 of them? There’ll be more pressure on the home opener, which is looking like Bergy. I’m good with that.
"They're throwing bottles at your house...Come on, let's go break their arms." - Henry Fool
by Fahrenheit 451 on Mar 4, 2011 11:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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