Bench Vlad
by Birdface on Apr 7, 2011 10:12 AM EDT
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OK, so I'm not really advocating that...but he looks terrible. He hacks away in the ugliest possible manner at every single pitch, then staggers across the plate like an arthritic old man after failing to make any contact with the ball. It's early, yes, and it's too early to say it was a mistake to pick him up. But if he doesn't improve, at what point do we start to wonder if the team wouldn't be better off with Luke at DH and Pie as an everyday outfielder?
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I already think the team would be better off
with Luke at DH and Pie (or Reimold) in LF. But Vlad is going to have to stink for quite some time before it comes to that.
I'm not sure Luke is a better option right now
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he is
He’s put up the same production as Vlad the last three years and he’s quite a bit younger. At the very least having both of them is redundant and Luke was here first.
The only place I think Vlad is a better option
Is that he is a name. People know the name Vlad Guerrero more than they know Luke Scott. I think having Vlad in their excites people (average fans) more than Luke.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
fan excitement doesn't really affect wins and losses
and also fans will get less excited as Vlad continues to suck. So there’s not really a good reason to play Vlad, other than he was the “premiere” off-season acquisition.
Luke sucks just as badly IMO
So it’s not like he is factoring in to more wins. There really isn’t a good reason to start Luke instead
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, Luke was BETTER than Vlad last year
Luke had a 3.1 WAR to Vlad’s 2.6. And that’s counting the fact that Vlad was a DH and isn’t penalized for defense, like Luke was for his poor play at 1st.
We were talking about right now, no?
Neither of them have looked good this year, granted Luke’s numbers are on a smaller scale. Last year their numbers are comparable. I think right now Vlad is just a better option and kicking him to the curb after 5 games seems a bit premature.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Except that Luke doesn't suck?
He’s played in TWO game this season and he was easily the O’s best hitter last year. I’m not saying Vlad is going to suck all year long either, but I do think at this point in his career he is more likely to.
He's looked like crap at the plate, I know, small sample size
How was Luke “easily” our best hitter last year? Besides hitting for power, I don’t think he was better than Nick by any means. Especially, when you consider his whole hot/cold bullshit that he goes through. And lastly, being the “best hitter” on that team last year really doesn’t say a lot.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Best Hitter
Statistically, Markakis was the better of the two except with regards to slug.
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
He hit for better AVG and had a better OBP.
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
Nick's OBP was .002 better than Luke's last year
Luke’s SLG was .099 higher than Nick’s.
I love Nick, but come on.
I know
I just still think that Nick was a better hitter than Luke. Luke hit the ball harder than Nick did last year, but Nick was by far the more consistent hitter of the two
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
I don't even know how to have this discussion
so I’m going to bow out. What you’re saying is ludicrous.
OK how about this
Games played- Nick 160 Luke 131
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
well it IS he fault he got injured, you're right
Look, I would rather have Nick on this team than Luke if I had to pick. But you’re just making a fool of yourself by saying Nick was a better hitter last year.
Ok
Look, I’m not trying to get nasty about it…All I’m saying is that I think that Nick is the better hitter. I like Luke as well, I just don’t think that he’s as steady of a hitter as Nick. Sure, Luke hit for way more power than anyone on the team last year, but Nick played in 30 more games and still came up with a better AVG. That’s all I’m trying to say. For my money, Nick was the better bat.
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
It's true that...
If you have two hitters, both with near-identical OBPs, the hitter with the higher AVG is more desirable. But that’s also assuming they have similar power outputs.
Luke’s power far outstripped the difference between his AVG and Nick’s.
Now, over the next 5 years or so, Nick will almost certainly be a more valuable hitter, as he’s still in his peak years, while Luke is likely to soon hit his decline phase. But last year Luke was a superior hitter and he has a good chance of being a superior hitter this year as well.
Ok
Well I guess that we just don’t agree on this one. To me being a better hitter means that you actually hit the ball, not the distance that you hit it after contact. I might be being ludicrous, but I’m afraid that’s just how I see it.
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
And yes
I do ignore advanced stats, FYI
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
OBP: advanced.
"I have fear, but I am not afraid."
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
by danielreese05 on Apr 7, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Where do the other parts of hitting come into play for you, then?
You’d be completely correct if you said that Nick has a better “hit tool,” or hits for better average, or is a better line-drive hitter. But “better hitter” implies you’re at least taking power into account, and probably on-base skills, too, doesn’t it?
Chris Tillman? Check (for now). Next: Free Nolan Reimold!
Yeah
I guess that’s fair. I don’t really know where I would rank power. I guess I’m just saying that the better hitter is the one that gets the hits when he steps up to the plate. I suppose that I was just generalizing hitting.
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
You forgot to add:
Deal with it!
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Apr 8, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
AVG is a meaningless stat
Comparing hitters using it is utterly pointless. And Nick was .002 points better than Luke in OBP. That’s insignificant.
Funny
I actually think that AVG is how you can tell a good hitter from a decent hitter.
I’m actually not a big fan of the WAR stat…I think that it’s kind of fake
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
Thanks
But who? And I’m not talking about guys that have like 3 AB’s…I mean everyday guys
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
Seriously?
Have you purposefully kept yourself blind to any advanced baseball analysis over the past decade?
Ok, Jeff Francoeur in 2005, 2007, and 2009. He posted AVGs of .300, .293, and .280. He was only a good hitter in ’05, because of his power numbers. In the rest, because he hit neither for power nor got on base, he was a poor hitter.
I don’t have time to look up any others, but there are a bunch of guys. There was one season a year or two ago when the Royals led the league in AVG, but were utterly dreadful offensively because they never walked and didn’t hit for power.
I've been trying to forget about his existence all of my life
But then when I think of baseball in the 1950s, I think of Juan Pierre. He plays the game the right way.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Apr 8, 2011 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions
except the way he wears his hat...
where do you think he finds those caps w/ the crooked bills?
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
Man...
they just the regular kind, we just turn ’em that way!
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Apr 8, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
attaboy!
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
by j.q. higgins on Apr 8, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember hearing that the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is an extra hit per week given about a league average amount of plate appearances for starters.
there are plenty of reasons to not trust avg. but that’s one of the biggest ones for me.
"I have fear, but I am not afraid."
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
by danielreese05 on Apr 7, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Somebody
should give a barroom speech about this point in a movie
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
by 33 on Apr 7, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
They could base it on a career minor league catcher
They should call this character Crash too. That would be awesome
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
Well, getting on base is far more important
But considering they did it at virtually the same rate, Luke’s obvious power advantage makes him a clear winner, doesn’t it?
Power, and...
He got on base at the same clip as Nick (.370 for Nick, .368 for Luke) and actually had a better walk rate (10.3 to 11.4). He had an OPS almost 100 points higher (.805 to .902). They were pretty close in WAR (2.8 to 3.1), though that is of course adjusted for position.
The streakiness is overblown and as far as I can recall, was not a problem last year.
And Luke would be considered a good hitter on any team he played for.
He wouldn't have been a starter for Texas last year
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
Yes he would have
He had a higher WAR than all but 3 Texas players: Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler (and Kinsler gets a bonus for being a 2nd baseman). Luke is ludicrously better than David Murphy and any of the scrubs they trotted out there for 1st base. He was also better than Vlad at DH.
OPS is just another form of power, so I don’t get how that is another point.
How is the streakiness overblown? Didn’t he have a bad OBP for most of the beginning of the year last year?
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
OPS is also another form of on base
It’s combined to show how good a hitter is. It’s not a perfect stat, but it’s one of them.
Luke had a bad April last year, but every other month his OBP was .345 or better. If you exclude July, his OBP was .369 or better all year. He had one bad month out of 6? That doesn’t make him “streaky”.
It’s a form of on base that just adds a power statistic to it and I already conceded that Luke is a better power hitter. So I don’t understand how that is anything different.
So, would you then say that Luke had a streak of bad play in April and party of July. Then had a streak of good play for the rest of the year?
This is getting out of hand though. My point is that I do not think Luke is a far and away better option than Vlad right now. Or at least there is nothing to tell us that with certainty. It is 5 games into the season and we are already talking about benching the guy.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
No...
Because he didn’t play poorly in July, he just didn’t play as well as the rest of the season.
I also agree it’s too early to say Vlad needs benching. But I also think Luke was a better hitter LAST YEAR than Vlad (do not get sucked in by strict statistical comparison, as Vlad played in Texas, which inflates batting numbers), is several years younger, and is thus more likely to be better THIS YEAR than Vlad.
I am ignorant to this issue, but how does playing in Texas inflate your batting numbers?
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
It’s a massive hitter’s park. It is much easier to hit in Arlington than many other parks in the Majors.
No need to be a dick about it
I said I didn’t know.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't mean to sound like a dick
The “really?” was more one of confusion than anything. I thought it was common knowledge that the Rangers played in an insane ball park for hitters. Not quite on the scale of pre-humidor Coors, but about as close as you can get without being a mile above sea level.
Gotcha
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
He had a poor April last year
that lasted as long as the slumps of many hitters. But like I said above, I don’t know how to have a conversation about this because it’s so absurd.
Then don't
No one is asking you to have the conversation if you do not want to.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Just saying
Just because you think something is absurd, doesn’t mean I am wrong.
I never said Luke sucked last year.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
And we are saying Vlad sucks based on 20. You mean…
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not what I said at all.
What I said was:
He’s put up the same production as Vlad the last three years and he’s quite a bit younger. At the very least having both of them is redundant and Luke was here first.
and
He’s played in TWO game this season and he was easily the O’s best hitter last year. I’m not saying Vlad is going to suck all year long either, but I do think at this point in his career he is more likely to.
That’s pretty much what that last sentence says.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not because of 20 ABs that we think Vlad will suck
But rather a historical trend for players in their late 30s to stop being good.
But there are outliers
Especially when a player has had a solid track record. Why even sign him in the first place if we are so worried about the age?
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of us weren't happy about the signing to begin with.
We’re really not just reacting to the first few games.
Chris Tillman? Check (for now). Next: Free Nolan Reimold!
The we implied more the O’s organization than we as fans. Sure, we fans can be mad about something, but it doesn’t do much. If they went out and got Vlad because they liked something he had to offer, then what is the purpose of putting him on the bench just a short week into the season?
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 7, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, sure.
I didn’t want us to sign him, for various reasons. But since we have, yeah, it’d be pretty silly to bench him already, and I don’t think anybody here is really saying we should. (Even the original post author said “not really.”)
Chris Tillman? Check (for now). Next: Free Nolan Reimold!
Maybe
if people keep saying the same things to you it’s because you keep saying the same things to people.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I'm sorry that was harsh
I’m having a fucky shitty day and I’m stressed out that I’m not gonna be allowed to come to work on Monday because Congress is a bunch of dickbags.
But seriously, when he said that I thought he was calling back to the conversation we had in the open thread so I said that jokingly. I thought what he and I were talking about was entirely different in that we were having an actual conversation and I really just had to stop because I couldn’t think of one person to say to a person who thinks that Luke Scott sucks.
But apparently he wasn’t joking.
haha
You don’t have to worry about my feelings – I dish it out often enough that I better be able to take it.
Congress sure is a bunch of dickbags though – the mrs. won’t be going into work on Monday either it looks like. Timing couldn’t be more perfect too with us just having to sink a bunch of money into our house which apparently is the low point in a 3 block radius and so collects most of the neighborhood’s water. Good times!
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I'm not gonna lie I wouldn't mind a few days off
even if I don’t get paid. To actually not be allowed to go to work seems like it might be kinda liberating. But if it lasts longer than a week or so I’m going to start panicking.
Yeah
she’s basically in the same boat. I think the whole idea is so ridiculous and even more ridiculous that the people who decide whether to shut it down or not continue to get paid either way.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Seriously!
Not to mention the military and other essential personnel who will have to work but not get paid until the budget passes.
I was talking to someone who was out of work during the '95 shutdown
he missed six days of work at the EPA, but when they went back to work, they were paid for those six days off. So, it seems like it’ll be a paid vacation.
Really?
That’s not the word around my wife’s office, but that would make me a lot more comfortable.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Maybe it differs based on a lot of things
or maybe it’s changed. This guy was a Ph.D high up on the food chain, so he might have had something written into his contract.
nah it was everyone in 95
I work with a fair number of people who worked here in 95 also so they keep telling us, “It might not be like 1995, everyone is probably not gonna get paid.”
I think Luke Scott has sucked this year, which I admitted was on a small sample size…but so is Vlad’s sample size. I say he has sucked this year because his swing has looked like shit at the plate. That’s it. His OBP of 182 really supports that so far.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Apr 8, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Vlad has looked like that for years now
I know, he looks like he’s going to break with every step he takes, but I think that he’s still got one more year in him. He can still be productive (as he demonstrated last year) and I think the lineup is way more potent with both Luke and Vlad in it than with Luke and Pie. Pie is at best a bench player.
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
you're right
why take a shot at 29 homers, from two positions, in the middle of the lineup when we could watch Pie learning how to hit in the Big Leagues every night? If we’re lucky he might put up a career high .750 OPS with 10 ding dongs this year – from a LF.
Is it Groundhog’s Day?
Fan-dabby-dozy.....tastic.....
I agree
If Vlad continues to look ancient and terrible, Pie will be a better option solely because of his defense.
I'm seeing
a better argument for putting Pie in CF than LF at this point.
But christ guys, it’s 5 games. And Vlad has been a flailing SOB (much like Pie) his entire career. Difference is he has a long track record of making it work. And I mean really work. That’s why he’s Vlad and Felix is the guy whose name you need to teach people to pronounce.
Fan-dabby-dozy.....tastic.....
I agree
you have to give Vlad time, basically. If we get to May 1 and he’s still looking like the has-been that we’ve seen so far, then we can have a serious conversation about sitting him.
Free Nolan Reimold!
the team as a whole,
with a few notable exceptions, has been shitty at the plate though. We are 29th in the Bigs in OBP, 23rd in SLG.
Fan-dabby-dozy.....tastic.....
way ahead of you. I made sure I subbed him out for Nick Swisher awhile ago.
"I have fear, but I am not afraid."
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
Wow.
Little early to be calling to bench anyone, let alone the guy that lit up spring training. Vlad hacks at everything. Thats what he does.
Just so I'm not misunderstood
I think Luke is awesome
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
HAHA!
Just wanted to make sure that I wasn’t the only one who saw that party hanging out of the back of his cap
"Are you trying to say that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"-Harris
In tampa his hat flew off when he was making a catch
and I truly beheld the power and glory of God
"Initially thought I had BieberFever but turns out I have pneumonia."
-Guts
by Steve. on Apr 8, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I heard on 105.7 that most Dominican and other Carribean hitters take longer to get going
Because of the cold.
I would advocate benching Vlad on Memorial Day if his SLG is below ____.
Some fun data:
Vlad’s career SLG: 562
Vlad’s 2008 to 2010 SLG: 496
Pie’s SLG as an Oriole: 421
Scott UZR/150 career in LF: 5.9
Pie’s UZR/150 career in OF: 4.6
I think given that Vlad’s body is breaking down is going to make it difficult for him to hit as many doubles as he would otherwise be able to. This will hurt his SLG, which in turn will minimize his value.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
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