Chris Tillman: Candidate for demotion? Not yet.
by cjatud2012 on May 9, 2011 6:50 PM EDT
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PrintHi all,
I’m a long-time lurker here at Camden Chat, and figured the best way to become more involved in the community here was to write a thoughtful Fanpost– plus, I have a report due tomorrow that I’d like to procrastinate, so this seems like a good way to accomplish that. Right now a hot topic in Birdland is the state of our rotation, so this seems to be a good issue to discuss in my first Fanpost. So here we go, any feedback is welcome :)
With our rotation struggling to put in a consistent performance night in and night out (and to keep our bullpen off the field), many are calling for Chris Tillman to be demoted to Triple-A, once Brian Matusz or Alfredo Simon or whoever is able to return to the bigs. Since his first game of the season, in which his line was 6IP, 0R, 0H, 3BB, 5K, we have watched Tillman allow 22 runs over 21.2 innings, good for a 9.14 ERA over that stretch. So what’s going on with this guy, and does he deserve the criticism he’s received so far this season?
Some of Tillman’s peripheral stats actually suggest that he is pitching okay. His BABIP up to this point in the season is .361, which is far above the average, so perhaps he’s experiencing some bad luck. To confirm this we can look at his xBABIP, which comes in at .293 (Fangraphs writes that the "ballpark" calculation for xBABIP is LD% + 12%). Tillman is also pitching to the tune of a 6.18 K/9 and a 2.93 BB/9, better than Zach Britton in both categories (5.02 and 3.35, respectively, for Britton). In addition, Tillman is sporting a ridiculously low HR/FB% of 4.5%, below both the major league average and his own career average. This makes his FIP, which is based on the three preceding stats, come out to a team-best 3.48.
Judging from this, it seems like it would be a bad idea to yank Tillman from the rotation. His rate stats and advanced stats suggest that he ought to regress for the better over the course of the season. The only exception to this is his HR/FB%, which is bound to go up – but even so, his xFIP comes in at 4.36, which isn't a great number, but it isn’t bad enough to merit his demotion, in my opinion. I’m sure many will say, too, that Tillman needs to move down to work his fastball*. It is true that Tillman has lost some velocity on his fastball, but unless he’s injured, what is a trip to Norfolk going to do to fix his velocity? Jerking him back and forth last year certainly didn't help him develop.
* it would be nice to look at this Pitch/FX or another advanced tool, but I’m not knowledgeable enough to do this on my own.
All this considered, I think Tillman, who has never had a fair chance to prove himself in the bigs, ought to stick in the rotation. The O’s still have some time before they will need to bump someone from the rotation, as Matusz is still healing, Simon might end up in the bullpen again, and Duke would surprise nobody if he didn’t pitch at all this season. But when that time comes, I hope they place some faith in Tillman.
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woah, I never realized
that SB Nation automatically links to a player’s profile when you type their name in a post. Wicked :)
interesting perspective
I didn’t realize his peripherals were so good. So maybe there is hope. But, I still can’t get over how slow and straight his fastball is.
I would sort of rather see him come out of the bullpen in a long relief role. God knows we need help there and his inability to pitch deep into games only further hurts the pen.
my main concern with the bullpen thing
is does it help his growth as a pitcher? If it does then it’d be more justified, although I think leaving him in the rotation is the best option for his development, and he’s showing that he’s capable in that role (or his peripherals are, anyway).
That was the Weaver Way, isn't it?
Have a guy work out of the pen to work on getting major league hitters out.
What do Palmer, Flanagan, Cuellar, MacGreggor, and Martinez have in common?
They all were relief pitchers early in their career. Seems possible there is some wisdom in that, and sure beats sending Tillman out every 5 days to pitch 4 innings and creating an unsurmountable lead.
But where is the competing talent
that enabled this approach?
When Palmer was in the pen in 65 his rotation spot was encumbered Milt Pappas. When Flanny, Mac and Denny were in the pen in 76 they were competing with each other for starts and had vets like Ken Holtzman & Ross Grimsley ahead of them and had one year wonder Wayne Garland encumbering a slot.
Faced with ‘problems’ like that, I’d bet Buck and Andy would happily let Tillman mature in long relief.
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
yeah... obviously we don't have the luxury of competition here
but I think this sort of debunks the idea that sending a guy down to the bullpen to work on his stuff at Major League level for a while isn’t going to hurt his development.
Yeah, Tillman's peripherals are good
Part of the reason for his high BABIP is the fairly poor defense behind him. Our outfield doesn’t have good range, nor does Roberts, nor does anyone on the left side of the infield with Hardy out.
I would not be opposed to leaving him in the rotation, but even with his peripherals looking good, he hasn’t pitched much better than the rest of the rotation. Arrieta is at a 3.80 xFIP, Guts’s is at 4.13, Zach Attack’s is 3.97, and even 3E1N’s is 4.56. In other words, only Brad’s been somewhat worse than Tillman, just looking at peripherals, and his actual results have probably been better.
Also, I don’t think ANYONE wants Simon to do anything except maybe come in as middle relief.
yeah Tillman certainly isn't blowing anyone away
but he’s not nearly as bad as it may seem to the casual fan, and he deserves the opportunity to play it out. Just my opinion though. You are very right about the rest of the rotation.
And yeah, I will certainly be upset if Weak Sauce finds his way into the rotation, but who would be surprised if the O’s made the move? sigh.
Great first post!
I don’t think Tillman has anything left to prove in the minors. When Matusz comes back, he or Bergy goes to the pen, and it makes no difference to me. They’re both just below average major league starters at this point, and that’s what your 5th rotation spot is for. You just gotta throw someone out there who is capable and hope for the best.
Tillman’s velo seems to be down from last year, but he’s still throw low-90s. There’s plenty of successful starters throwing that fast in the majors. I feel like there’s a more intangible problem with him, like maybe he’s tipping his pitches. Granted he’s had some weak, unlucky hits against him that have inflated his BABIP, but I’ve watched almost all of his starts, and there have also been a ton of really hard line drives hit off of him, especially in the Yankees debacle. That leads me to believe that he’s giving something away in his delivery that veteran hitters are all over.
Less big words and more exclamation marks
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on May 10, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Great first post!
Wish I had done so well. Welcome and lurk no more!
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
Great, post. Thanks!
I don’t know what the Orioles will do but to me it’s a no brainer to keep Tillman in the rotation when Matusz comes back. He’s clearly the better talent than Bergesen, and while he might not put it all together, this is the year to just let him out there to give it a go.
thanks for the kind words everyone
Cheers :)
and, fwiw,
I still haven’t finished my report, lol.
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