Nuggets, Roses, and Pile Jumpers.... Duds, Weeds, and Couch Sitters
In the following post I am going to lay out how I think the Orioles should build their roster this trade deadline and upcoming off-season. No questions will be asked, only answered.
The Orioles lineup has failed to live up to the expectations laid out at the start of the year. Almost every single player has fallen short of numbers given to us by the front office. But the Orioles can still build a good lineup around a core of players. Wieters at catcher, Hardy at shortstop, Jones in center, and Markakis in right. If you can extend Hardy that gives you four solid players to build around. That leaves you with five questionable positions: 1B, 2B, 3B, DH, and LF.
Left Field
I have a very hard time seeing Luke Scott being a part of this team in any long term capacity. The fact that he is left handed and has raw power makes him appealing to teams that need a hitter during the pennant race. The Mariners, Angels, and Braves are the three teams that come to mind. Between now and the break Luke could get hot and increase his value, but if we assume that he keeps up his current pace he will have about 10 long balls, and keep his current OPS of .734, a decline from the .904 number that he had in 2011. We know the Mariners could use Luke both at LF and DH, the Angels however would be much less likely to pursue Scott since they already have Abreu and Vernon Wells. The Braves would also be unwilling to give up much since they are fine in LF and have a solid bench. Now the question is, what are the Mariners willing to give up to get a middle of the line hitter. Well, probably not much. You may remeber a few years ago, the M's traded Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard. We can't expect that sort of a deal. So instead, trade Luke Scott for a AAA relief pitcher and Chone Figgins. Yes, I know that he is signed for two more years after 2011 and he has struggled for Seattle. In 170 OPACY at-bats he has hit .330 and if you compare the dimensions, Oriole Park and Angels Stadium are clearly more hitter friendly than Safeco. Getting Figgins could greatly help the top of the lineup. Figgins, when he is on can draw walks and steal bases and considering the decline of Roberts, having a top of the lineup guy would be a great help. You would have to get the Mariners to eat part of the contract though.
Third Base
I have already stated that I think that Figgins should be a part of this team. If that route were not taken however, you have to call Josh Bell up. It's time to see whether or not he can produce at the Major League level. If so, then you can keep him up and if not then we know it is time to move on. Either way, you have to move Reynolds to DH and keep him at least through 2012. I think we are all starting to see that he can produce in that special Mark Reynolds way with lots of K's and long balls, just keep him of the field.
Designated Hitter
With no doubt remaining that Vladdy will not be a part of this team next year it is clear that trading him would be most beneficial for the ball club. However, not that many teams are looking for him since he really cannnot play the field. The only two teams that I could see a trade happening with would be the White Sox and the Twins. But sadly, Vladdy has put up such poor power numbers that the best you could get out of a conteding team would be a AAA pitcher. At this point I would pull the trigger on any deal that nets potential major league talent.
Left Field
This is probably the most difficult position to fix. Neither Riemold nor Pie seem to be starting material. But in 2012 I think I would start with platooning the two of them to perhaps see if Riemold can regain some of his power. There really isn't much in the FA market, unless you took a gamble of Carlos Beltran a move I wouldn't mind seeing considering the numbers he has put up so far this year. I know that Beltran is a Vladdy like player, but signing him to a 1 year deal might prove to be beneficial for Baltimore, as long as he can stay healthy. However, you run a simiilar risk as you did with Derrek Lee in that Beltran hasn't played in the AL in a very long time. Still, if you take a chance Beltran could produce good power numbers in Oriole Park.
First Base
I actually am of the opinion that Lee should be resigned for another year. Unless the Orioles sign Prince Fielder which is probably less than likely, Lee provides excellent defense and one can hope that his second year in the American League results in better power numbers. But, unless of course the Orioles do sign Fielder, it is doubtful that a better option could be found. This gives you a year to perhaps trade for some talent. Of course, I would advise MacPhail to go as hard as possible after Fielder. Unlike Vladdy or Derrek Lee, Fielder will actually put balls and fans in the seats.
All that being said, there really isn't a ton of talent available to the Orioles this deadline. Still, there are improvements that can be made as we wait until some of the younger players in the minor league system develop. Here is a potential lineup for the start of 2012, in no particular order.
2B Roberts
SS Hardy / Andino
CF Jones
C Wieters
1B Lee / Fielder
RF Markakis
DH Reynolds
LF Riemold / Beltran
3B Figgins / Bell
Clearly this solution doesn't help the team get any younger, but until folks such as, Manny Machado and Xavier Avery start coming up to the bigs the best solution for the offense is to try and surround the core of four or five players with players who can pass as acceptable. That means that you try to sign Prince Fielder but you also take a gamble on a player like Figgins or Beltran. In addition, you can attempt to build your bullpen by trading players like Scott and Lee instead of trying to spend big money on relief in the offseason.
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I voted moderate
because I only see the O’s getting immediate ML ready talent in a return for either Guts, New/Old JJ, or possibly Koji. Any other moves made will, in my opinion, only net low-level prospects, similar to the Tejada trade last year, which is fine. If the front office can take any flier for Luke, Vladdy, DLee, Pie, or (optimistically) Gregg, then I think the team should do it. None of them seem to factor into the team’s long term plans, so if they get someone in return who could be then bully for them.
I am the Frizzle Fry.
I’ve always kind of been eying Beltran as a possibility. he’s still producing well in that black hole in Queens, so I’d love to see what he can do in a more hitter-friendly place. giving anything up to get him would be foolish though, only get him if he can be bought for something similar to Vladdy’s deal.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
No to Figgins
It’s the kind of move we’ve been making for years – Vet on the wrong side of 30 with numbers trending down, and we’re hoping something happens. Yeah, something happens – they get worse.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
Agreed
He has been terrible this year and in steady decline. I get to see him play all the time (when he is in the lineup anyway) and his defense is failing along with his bat. It would be a safe bet to say that Seattle would be happy to dump him from the team.
Just say no to aging players whose value comes from speed/OBP
Much more likely to decline with age than power
Less big words and more exclamation marks
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Jun 26, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted unlikely
I think the players we are most likely to trade will not bring back a prospect that is worth a damn. I think the only guys that would get a good prospect would be Guts or New JJ. But, I don’t see the O’s trading either.
Chone Figgins? BARF!
I would like it if we could get Reynolds into the DH spot, but not if it means Figgins is the 3B. Or Josh Bell, really. So I think Reynolds is probably stuck at 3B.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Jun 26, 2011 11:52 PM EDT reply actions
I don't see Bri Bob starting at 2nd next year.
I think his career as a starter is pretty much over. I’d be much happier if they just stuck Moldy in LF, left Reynolds at 3B (he really isn’t THIS bad a fielder), and rebuilt a young right side of the infield.
If the Reds have real interest in Guts, I think we can get Yonder Alonso (Yes please) and maybe move Koji, Gregg (if anyone would take that sad-sack) for some AAA talent.
We have plenty of 2Bs in the pipeline, I think we have a good chance of one of them becoming starter material.
Don't forget - sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming head on
No reference to the pitching staff?
I think the big question has to be the rotation and the biggest question there IMO is – will Chris Tillman be in there? Will he deserve it? He had the velo but gave it up for control, will he be able to improve his control enough to bring back the heat?
I think Tillman is a huge factor in the O’s mid-term success. With him we have four good/very good young pitchers (Zach, Matusz, Jake, Chris). W/O him, we’re a starter short of a decent rotation and that means more resource allocation instead of signing a quality FA or acquiring one in a trade instead of a position player.
Don't forget - sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming head on
Does anybody really believe this BS?
He had the velo but gave it up for control
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
nope, I think he’s got an injury, but the main reason I don’t believe it is because his command was crap too. also; if you’re not able to throw a 92 MPH fastball (I believe I’ve seen reports of him throwing 92 in the minors) then you better damn well have some plus-plus-plus breaking stuff and he just doesn’t.
sad though, I’ll continue to hold out hope that he puts it all together.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 27, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Also
if he were able to throw 92 and was simply choosing to throw 87-88 to hit spots, there would be certain points in a game where he would pop 92 when he needed a little extra and he’s never done that.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
sorry, throw a 92 MPH fastball where you want it to go.*
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 27, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Keep Figgins off the Orioles, please.
Seriously. Guy has had two, TWO seasons of above average wOBA, and a whole lot of total shit otherwise. Current wOBA is .216. TWO. ONE. SIX. No thank you.
"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008
Adam Jones is the tits.
by KenDixonFanClub on Jun 27, 2011 12:48 AM EDT reply actions
this was fun rosterbation
kind of crazy, but fun.
Kevin Gregg is ruining everything I love about baseball, he really is.
by Andrew_G on Jun 27, 2011 7:30 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Added to my vocab, thanks
Less big words and more exclamation marks
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Jun 27, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
you said left field twice
this reminds me of my personal “current roster trade criteria”
trade for a bucket of balls or whatever we can get (wwcg):
vlad
trade for low level prospects or wwcg:
gregg
andino
trade for multiple middling prospects or MLers:
scott
dlee
pie
trade only for really good prospects:
guts
reimold
trade only if we’re giving up on them (i’m not but maybe i should; also, too late?):
tillman
matusz?
trade only if we’re completely blown away:
everyone else except wieters and britton
won’t trade cause likely has no value:
3E1N
o’boskie
the DFAs (fox, accardo)
andino and pie probably belong here too
brob (injury, contract)
extend that man instead of trading him!:
hardy
we’re dropping Jones and Markakis too? those are the other two I’d keep. along with the entire rotation other than Jack o otherconsonants and Guthrie. oh, and both JJ’s.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 27, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, if we were offered Jesus Montero for Arrieta or something ridiculous like that then yeah, I agree that it’d have to be a pretty sweet deal.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 27, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing
team has to accumulate pitchers; that’s the best way to improve trade chances down the road. If you’ve got 8-12 live arms teams will come calling to patch up their sorry staffs and you have leverage to get what you want/need. Never too much pitching.
After all, in 162 games health can trump talent (if not, why did Boston miss out last year, or LAA, or…).
And you never know what other GM’s see in a guy. Sometimes they trade for a guy like Guerrero because they need a few more hits, or want a leader to straighten out the team. Or they think that a change of scenery will do wonders (and there’s enough evidence from the past few years of guys who moved at the deadline and played much better). After all, how many batting coaches actually would try and get Vlad or Lee to use a lighter bat or change their approach?
The most obvious move (to me alone, I guess)..
…TRADE ADAM JONES! Do it NOW, while there is still time.
I also say trade Hardy and Guts, both of whom I think would bring back a quality return. And Johnson and Koji if you can get value for them.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I see the logic
and earlier this year I was right there, but the way he’s driving the outside pitch out of the park to right field has me rethinking that. I know a lot of the peripherals still don’t look good, but one of his biggest problems used to be pulling off the outside pitch and he’s clearly not doing that anymore. Even if he still swings at too many balls the fact that he can actually do something with outside strikes makes him a lot more interesting. Wouldn’t you have to be absolutely blown away with a trade for him since he’s young, cheap and ours for 3 more years?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Well, the thing is...
…right now I imagine a lot of teams would be falling all over themselves trying to trade for him – he’d be like a more appealing Hunter Pence. But he’s not that cheap – he’s already into arbitration, and we have him for only two more seasons that count (2012 and 2013, since this season is a lost cause). and he will be more expensive those years. And we know he isn’t going to sign a team-friendly extension, since he was approached about that last offseason and passed.
Meanwhile, whatever improvement he has made with the outside pitch is outweighed by how much worse he has gotten in the field. UZR, Total Zone and BIS all have him as one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game this season. He’s still having a terrible time making contact, and he still doesn’t walk and never will.
So this, to my mind, represents peak value for Jones. His hitting looks good, even though it is probably unsustainable. His fielding still has a good reputation, but as all the different defensive rating systems begin to agree that he’s actually quite poor defensively, teams will catch on. Sadly, I feel like I am prophetic on his score – he actually IS Jeff Francouer. And there was a time when the Braves could have gotten a lot for Francouer in a trade. And they waited until they could barely give him away.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I don't believe Jones has been approached about an extension at all.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Jun 27, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i remember reading that they were some initial talks in the offseason
but it never got serious.
Folksy literate type.
I never heard anything about that
Felix Pie is a ninja robot sent from the future to make everything adorable.
He was
http://www.masnsports.com/amber_theoharis/2011/05/when-will-os-lock-jones-into-long-term-deal.html
“We actually, in Adam’s case, had a brief conversation with Casey Close of CAA at the last winter meetings and talked about, you know, we’d be interested in talking about it in the following parameters,” MacPhail said. “But I think they felt like Adam was still on the ascent and wanted him to play and further establish himself, and they may very well be right.”
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
which basically means
andy probably laid out some very vague years/dollar figures which close said no to.
Folksy literate type.
Yes, in which vague = team friendly
I don’t think it is hard to see what happened here – the Orioles did what a lot of teams do, and approached Jones’ people about giving up some salary for security. And Jones felt like he would be giving up too much money.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Hmm that's true about his defense
he does look mostly awful out there. Lots of his errors and misplays are just laziness/lackadaisical play rather than a lack of physical ability. It’d be nice if he just got his head out of his ass a little bit out there.
Well I certainly am not opposed to trading him if they can get something awesome. The value they’d have to get in return would have to be eventually equal to his performance over the next 2.5 years plus the supplemental picks that we’d get for him right? What kind of package would meet that criteria and who’s likely to offer it?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Hard to say
We haven’t really established a market for Jones at all – he’s one of the players teams think is totally untouchable. It also depends on what you want – do you want major league ready talent, or the highest ceiling talent available, or some kind of mix.
This is also the kind of deal that might be better in the offseason, or could be better now, that’s also hard to say. Players like Guts and Hardy definitely are at their peak value this deadline; they represent the best or close to the best on the market, and they fit the needs of many different contenders. The best fit among current contenders is the Giants, and I’d be inclined to loot them – aim for Wheeler, Belt and Gary Brown.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Unlikely
because who believes McPhail will actually have the acumen to make a good trade?
JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Jones disagree.
"That was fugly." - JArrieta34
by WestcoastO'sFan on Jul 5, 2011 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The one thing MACPhail has proven to be good at
is getting talent back in trades. It might take him months to pull the trigger, but he almost always gets good talent back (even if it doesn’t always pan out).
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
yes, i agree
the question isn’t whether he’ll make a good trade. he even managed to get a legit prospect for tejada last summer. the question is whether he’ll have the acumen to make a trade in the first place.
Folksy literate type.

























