This is the first edition of a series I am going to bring to Camden Chat. As a mostly intelligent blog, I would like to throw a market value out there for a player and have birdland decide whether or not we should Buy(re-sign), Hold(wait until the offseason and/or offer arbitration to get a draft pick), or sell at the deadline for market value.
Buy: Guthrie has been our ace and at age 32 optimistic birds fans have to believe that he is still capable of being an inning eater as a #2/#3 starter for a winning Orioles squad. Guthrie is currently making 5.75 Mil this year and is looking at an arbitration rise to about 7 million next year. If we were to extend him we could look at buying out his arbitration year and getting about a 4 year/34 million deal. Of course then we would have Guthrie through his age 36 season. Then again with no injury history he may not be the greatest risk signing into his mid 30's.
Hold: Next year is a more realistic year for the Orioles to be a winning baseball team and fringe playoff contender. The Orioles could keep Guthrie around to energize the fan base as the Orioles would chase .500 and maybe a wild card spot. If the Orioles keep Guthrie, he would continue to anchor a young staff for the rest of the season, and save our bullpen. However the longer the Orioles hold on to Guthrie, the more his value recedes. Holding onto Guthrie into the offseason would allow the Orioles fans to continue to generate excitement toward next season, but would also lose the Orioles some value in potential prospect bait, as many contenders always need workhorse frontline starters (Guthrie could be a legitimate #2 for some contenders.)
Sell: The Orioles young starters have not progressed quick enough for Guthrie to be an integral part of the next playoff Orioles team (when hell freezes over). Perhaps the prospects the Orioles would net for Guthrie (should be built around a top 75 or so prospect with a few other prospects). However, the lack of Guthrie's presence atop the rotation could have disastrous effects on the psyche of fans. Trading away the best pitcher and top innings eater could be catastrophic for the developing Orioles. However, trading our most valuable asset could help turn the Orioles into a playoff contender..... someday.