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What's Our Strategy?

I haven't posted on Camden Chat in a while. A new baby (to go along with the 2 year old) will do that to you - I've spent the majority of the last three months too tired to type anything longer than 140 characters. I was reading an article last week though and it depressed the hell out of me. Here's the URL:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6746478/undervalued-sluggers

So first off, I don't really like Grantland. The articles seem to be about the authors more than they are about sports, so I'm not terribly interested in participating in gratuitous stroking of the ego. Still, when I have a second and the article is about baseball, I'll take a peek.

Second, it was written a week ago, so my apologies if it has already been discussed on this site. Anyway, you should check this article out in its entirety because it's pretty interesting. It's about the Brewers and the strategy they've pursued this year - buy some bats, buy some arms, plunder the farm system, completely neglect defense.

And as I read it, I started to think about how sensible it is - not to copy this exact strategy, but to utilize ANY strategy. To make a conscious decision to purchase one attribute at the expense of another. Load up on offense and ignore defense - there must be a cumulative, greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts impact to having a loaded lineup. Go with solid pitching that can go deep into games and a strong defense and hope you can get good at winning 3-2 - maybe if your bullpen is well rested then they should be even more effective and help you hold leads late. Even if your strategy is simply to go after balance, to only take guys who are equally good on both sides of the ball, that's something. And the depressing part of reading the article was this - I can't figure out what the Orioles strategy is.

Can anyone tell me? What is it that this team is trying to be good at? It can't be defense. You don't sign Mark Reynolds and shove Luke Scott back into left field if defense is your objective. (It should not surprise anyone watching the games that the Orioles are, by far, the worst in the league in UZR.)

And, of course, we can't be trying to secure a dominant offense either. Everyone knew that the Vlad and Lee signings weren't going to make this team score a ton of runs. They were PR plays at best, desperation at worst. We haven't had a really good offense in years - two over the hill players weren't going to change that... and our team offense has proven to be middle of the road.

So of course everyone must assume that we're trying to build the team through pitching... you know, the whole "grow the arms and buy the bats" thing. Except I'm not so sure that's it either. In 2007, 3 of our top 5 draft picks were position players. In 2008 it was 5 of 7. In 2009 it was 3 of 6. In 2010 it was 3 of 6.

I'm just not sure that I understand. If you want to grow the arms, you'd better take a lot more pitchers with high picks. And you'd better invest in some D. If you're going to commit to team defense, then you can't sign bat-only players at multiple positions.  If you want to win with offense, you need to spend bigger - not waste $8M on Vlad - but actually put a realistic, market value bid out there for a Teixeira or Carl Crawford or whoever the big free agent is.

If you say we can't afford the big free agents, then we'd better play where we can find prospects for cheap - the draft and in international markets. But we give up draft picks to sign middle relievers and ignore international scouting. Or we could always trade for a big name - it's not like Milwaukee is some wealthy market and they were able to pick up Greinke. But instead we re-sign guys like Brian Roberts and JJ Hardy at their very peak value.

I've always generally liked MacPhail, but I'm becoming more and more skeptical by the day. Does he know how to build a team around a particular strategy? Does he believe that playing a "type" of baseball is important, or at least more valuable than having everyone do their own thing? Does he think we should be a defensive team or a slugging team or an OBP factory or a team of great starting pitching? Or does he simply go out and acquire mid-level, past its prime, overpriced talent in a vacuum, which has generally led us to nothing but failure?

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe a team doesn't need to focus on something. It's certainly possible that you can employ a butcher at third base that hits for a low average (but some pop!), an overrated defensive center fielder that refuses to take a walk, a defensive star at first base that is well past his prime at the plate... and I guess, in theory, you can win with that. It sure seems to me that it's easier to be decent if you narrow your focus a little bit, create and cultivate a team strategy, and sign players who fit into it.

Am I wrong here? Do we need a team strategy? Or is it enough to just look for guys that don't suck?

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Absolutely, we need a team strategy.

And you are right, we don’t have one. We all thought it was supposed to be about the young pitching, but then, as you said, we bring in guys like Reynolds and throw Scott into left to sacrifice defense for offense. Any sensible baseball mind knows that good defense goes a long way towards developing young pitching. It’s almost as if AM is trying to develop a balanced team, but it just isn’t feasible in our current situation. In order to be successful as a balanced team you have to be above average at all aspects of the game. Last time I checked signing guys like Vlad, Atkins, Miggi, etc don’t give you that balance. They bring, at best, one facet of the game to the table and, at worst (which is what we always end up getting), nothing. A team in our situation can’t always go after the superstar five tool guys that make a well balanced team. We absolutely must decide what type of ball we want to play and stick with it.

Say no to Prince Fielder in 2012.

by Knubles and Bits on Jul 16, 2011 8:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Defense

One hallmark of the 1989 turnaround from 1988, was the attention to OF defense with Anderson/Bradley/Finley/Devereaux. I’m not saying the situation is the same with this team, but we had an OF of highlight films that year that elevated what was ultimately mediocre pitching into contention…

"To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; to steal from many is
research."

by Auricursine on Jul 16, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fire Sale

Everybody except Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Britton, Arrieta, Johnson, and Koji has got to go. We can’t win with the other bums. Maybe if we gave Guthrie, Scott, Roberts, Guerrero, and Lee to Milwaukee for some pitchers and Fielder, that might work.

by miskatonic86 on Jul 16, 2011 8:29 AM EDT reply actions  

i believe that's the right move

but what matters is what you get back, and that’s really what i’m talking about. we need to decide what kind of team we want to be, not just trade and sign haphazardly. i don’t think we have the resources to say “we’ll just try to get the best possible player at each position”. we’ll fail that way. we need to get good players, but players that complement each other in some way. like i said, go for all high OBP guys or go for team defense and speed, whatever. pick something (preferably something that’s undervalued where we can buy a lot of it) and be consistent about it.

by joet on Jul 16, 2011 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

It isn't a fire sale...

…if you aren’t selling anything. Hell, the seven players you’ve listed are the majority of the players we have with any trade value at all.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 16, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with most of this

except the draft – I think you have to take the best player available with every single pick regardless of how they fit into your organizational strategy or needs. Then if you want you can use those better prospects to trade for pieces that work for your strategy down the road if you really want to.

All that being said, I’m not sure the O’s are regularly taking the best player available, but that’s a different issue.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Jul 16, 2011 1:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I disagree..

and I will be argued with by many to my point, but I believe MacPhail has copied the Rays strategy (defense/young pitching) and to buy bats still. Every highly touted prospect over the last two years sans Wieters has been a pitcher and we have made some defensive upgrades in the field: Lee at first, Hardy at short. Mark Reynolds long term will be our DH I believe, with AM hoping that Bell can still take over at the hot corner. Markakis has regressed slightly in left, and UZR on Scott before this season showed that he was an above average defender(not saying I agree with it or that the sample size is large, but still).

by FreddieBoomBoomBynum on Jul 17, 2011 12:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know what most Os fans see, but it clearly isn’t strategy. Vlad and Lee may not have been what was expected, but on the other hand they quickly become dispensable when the Os are in last. if other teams are looking to make a playoff run, they need a veteran bat, and not some guy from the minors. Chances are stars on other teams are locked down. Proof in the pudding… People keep picking up Jason Giambi and Jim Thome to round out the bench. Tell me thy wouldn’t want Vlad or Lee? And what can the Os get in return?

It may not have worked as planned, but it is an opportunity, not a failure.

by Richard Lynch on Jul 20, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions  

They wouldn't want Vlad and we aren't getting much in return for Lee.

It is a failure.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Jul 20, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

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