FanPost

Buy, Hold or Sell. The trade deadline Edition 2: Luuuuuke


Hey guys, I really enjoyed the comments (althought depressing and slightly pessimistic) in my first article about whether or not we should deal Jeremy Guthrie. I ask that when you vote this, please take the long term into account as well as what would realistically happen. I know some want the O's to deal everyone not named Matusz and Wieters, but that simply will not happen.

Luuuuuke is a very interesting case for the Orioles. Last year Luke put up some great numbers, and his stock has taken quite a hit this year, as his 10' OPS+ of 144 (100 is average) is down to 97 this year in his 200 AB's. Clearly Luke is hurt as he is batting .223. Luke is currently making over 6 million this year, and is due for a modest raise in his final year of arbitration. If you are the Orioles what would you do with a fan favorite Luuuuke as he is 33 years old and currently taking at bats away from another fan favorite, the 2nd string quarterback, Nolan Reimold.

Buy: There is no disguising it, Luke's value is at an all time low and it would be an utter shock for the Orioles to negotiate an extension for Luke. The only realistic possibility for arguments sake, would be a 2 year/$9million deal or so with some sort of buyout that guarantees Luke money. Scott could even be nontendered by the O's as he stands to make $7mil or so next year (I seriously doubt this). We all know an aging Luke is still capable of a 25 homer 75 RBI season as a #6 hitter or so, and if we can buy him for an extra year, rebuild his value, perhaps instead of a C-level prospect we could get two B-level prospects for him.

Hold: Luke Scott's value is at an all time low and it makes the most sense to wait until the offseason when he is healthy, or next year's trade deadline, while swallowing the millions he is owed, in snag a B-level prospect. Scott can be a 2-3 WAR player (he was 3.5 last year) and help keep the Orioles from falling off the face of the Earth and/or losing 162 games. Scott can mentor the young players, taking them to the shooting range and teaching them you don't even need to be American to be president. Luke can help the 2012 Orioles.

Sell: Luke Scott will not be on the next winning Orioles team, we shoudl trade him. Even the most optimistic fans (your's truly being one) cannot possibly believe Luke Scott will be the LF or DH of a winning Orioles team, so it makes sense to deal him. Even if we deal him this season, then we will be able to give more at bats to a Nolan Reimold or a Matt Angle. Right now we could get a marginal prospect for Luke and be able to rid ourselves of his roughly 2 million left due this year plus probable 7 million next year.



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