Buy, Hold or Sell. The trade deadline Edition 2: Luuuuuke

by FreddieBoomBoomBynum on Jul 17, 2011 12:33 AM EDT

Hey guys, I really enjoyed the comments (althought depressing and slightly pessimistic) in my first article about whether or not we should deal Jeremy Guthrie. I ask that when you vote this, please take the long term into account as well as what would realistically happen. I know some want the O's to deal everyone not named Matusz and Wieters, but that simply will not happen.

Luuuuuke is a very interesting case for the Orioles. Last year Luke put up some great numbers, and his stock has taken quite a hit this year, as his 10' OPS+ of 144 (100 is average) is down to 97 this year in his 200 AB's. Clearly Luke is hurt as he is batting .223. Luke is currently making over 6 million this year, and is due for a modest raise in his final year of arbitration. If you are the Orioles what would you do with a fan favorite Luuuuke as he is 33 years old and currently taking at bats away from another fan favorite, the 2nd string quarterback, Nolan Reimold.

Buy: There is no disguising it, Luke's value is at an all time low and it would be an utter shock for the Orioles to negotiate an extension for Luke. The only realistic possibility for arguments sake, would be a 2 year/$9million deal or so with some sort of buyout that guarantees Luke money. Scott could even be nontendered by the O's as he stands to make $7mil or so next year (I seriously doubt this). We all know an aging Luke is still capable of a 25 homer 75 RBI season as a #6 hitter or so, and if we can buy him for an extra year, rebuild his value, perhaps instead of a C-level prospect we could get two B-level prospects for him.

Hold: Luke Scott's value is at an all time low and it makes the most sense to wait until the offseason when he is healthy, or next year's trade deadline, while swallowing the millions he is owed, in snag a B-level prospect. Scott can be a 2-3 WAR player (he was 3.5 last year) and help keep the Orioles from falling off the face of the Earth and/or losing 162 games. Scott can mentor the young players, taking them to the shooting range and teaching them you don't even need to be American to be president. Luke can help the 2012 Orioles.

Sell: Luke Scott will not be on the next winning Orioles team, we shoudl trade him. Even the most optimistic fans (your's truly being one) cannot possibly believe Luke Scott will be the LF or DH of a winning Orioles team, so it makes sense to deal him. Even if we deal him this season, then we will be able to give more at bats to a Nolan Reimold or a Matt Angle. Right now we could get a marginal prospect for Luke and be able to rid ourselves of his roughly 2 million left due this year plus probable 7 million next year.

Poll

What should the Orioles do with Luuuuuke.

Buy

1 votes

Hold

19 votes

Sell

57 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

If the Orioles can reallocate the money owed to Scott..

into international free agency/scouting I would love for them to deal Scott. However, they are more likely to burn said money.

by FreddieBoomBoomBynum on Jul 17, 2011 12:34 AM EDT reply actions

Scott is untradable and will be non-tendered

If he wants to come back to the O’s for around $4M, they might sign him. Otherwise, he’s done here after 2011.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 17, 2011 1:34 AM EDT reply actions

Correction

Otherwise, he should be done here. Never know anymore with this front office.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 17, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

From what I've heard...

…the Orioles don’t want him at $7M+. I actually might be more inclined than the team is to retain him.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 17, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Sick of Luke

Tired of his streakiness, and his off-season comments about Obama’s birth certificate (I don’t like Obama either, but even I wouldn’t say that), was idiotic at best. He is a cancer.

by miskatonic86 on Jul 17, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

what does luke's birhdate have to do with anything?

by Luke E on Jul 17, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

took me a second, but well done. as for Luke being a clubhouse cancer: any evidence? I know, I know, absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence, but I feel like we’d have heard something by now.

Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg

by danielreese05 on Jul 17, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought I read that Luke has served as a mentor to

Adam Jones, and that they are good friends. Kind of surprised me.

by FreddieBoomBoomBynum on Jul 17, 2011 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

I think someone would be willing to

pick up a left handed bat in Scott as a pinch hitter in the NL or as a platoon in the OF, with 2 mil or so being owed to him as not that much of an obstacle.

by FreddieBoomBoomBynum on Jul 17, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

A hurt and shitty left handed bad? I don't think so.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Jul 18, 2011 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions

who is going to DH in 2012?

when healthy, Luke is an adequate DH. I vote hold. If he recovers from injury and sticks around a while his trade value will increase.

by Fun Tymer on Jul 17, 2011 5:28 PM EDT reply actions

Reynolds probably. he’d be awesome as a DH.

Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg

by danielreese05 on Jul 17, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Reynolds, easily

Not only is Reynolds a better value at DH, though still not great, he distracts from what good hitters do. Scott had one decent year and everyone went gaga, ignoring his career record is dull. If they can sell, great, but hard with his track record. Just because a guy hits left doesn’t make him valuable; though in a hitting-poor year, who knows what craziness will proceed?

by dsciswe on Jul 19, 2011 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions

he distracts from what good hitters do.

I don’t understand what this means at all

by kba26 on Jul 19, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Gets on base at a decent (.337) clip, I guess?

Slugs over .470, maybe?
Sports a 123 OPS+, perhaps?

Help me out here…..

I am the Frizzle Fry.

by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 19, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

those whiffs are so distracting though!

They prevent people that don’t understand the game of baseball from realizing that he’s a good hitter.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Jul 19, 2011 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe it's all those rally-killing HRs he hits?

Wishing Frank McCourt had been approved to buy the RedSux.....

by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 19, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted sell, although the time to trade Luke was surely after last season.

However, it was a greater priority (I guess) for the FO to try to bumble their way into an 82 win season. And now we’re sitting here with our figurative dicks flapping in the breeze.

"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11

by Eat More Esskay on Jul 17, 2011 7:54 PM EDT reply actions

Sell...

and that should have happened last year. It didn’t, so now he’s been bitten by the fabrum bear and is pretty much worthless. He’s in his fourth year of arbitration – no way in fuck all he gets a bump this year, right? Pending the new CBA, the cheapest he could be if tendered is like $5.1 million.

Also: may seem blasphemous and improbable but Nick gets really, really, really, expensive the next three years. If he finishes the year hot, is there any chance the Orioles should consider trading him?

‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll

by TerroristFistJab on Jul 17, 2011 8:07 PM EDT reply actions

No way Luke Scott's salary goes down..

from what I understand his value in the 4th year of arb will be between 7-8.5 mil. I’m optimistic it will be 7 mil, and I believe Luke can be a 2.0 WAR player, making him valuable to come back.

by FreddieBoomBoomBynum on Jul 18, 2011 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

7 mil

for a backup with poor D anywhere and poor hitting ability? I mean, if he closes on a career year he bats .260 with 20 homers, 70 rbis, and 120 strikeouts with no steals.

by dsciswe on Jul 19, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

The Orioles will be exceedingly busy with arbitration this offseason...

Even if they non-tender Luke, they still have to deal with Wieters, Jones, Johnson, Bergesen, Berken, Guthrie, Pie, and Andino. I’m assuming that they’re going to non-tender Jeremey Accardo.

Taking into account the glaring holes produced by signing one-year players like Lee and Vlad – this offseason is shaping up to be “the big one” for this most recent rebuilding effort.

Given all of this craziness (not even thinking about evaluating year one of Buck and looking at options with Roberts and his baseball readiness), is there even the slightest chance for the Orioles to change directions in terms of hiring a new GM?

‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll

by TerroristFistJab on Jul 17, 2011 8:15 PM EDT reply actions