Koji Uehara traded for 1B Chris Davis and SP Tommy Hunter

by birdman on Jul 30, 2011 7:14 PM EDT

This afternoon the Orioles traded Koji Uehara to the Texas Rangers for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. First, let me say that I LOVE Koji Uehara. He's been a fantastic reliever, and he has awesome sideburns. That said, I love this trade even more. Before today, I thought one of two things would happen with Koji. He stays or he's traded for some crappy 27 year old, organizational player. Teams now value prospects differently than 2-3 years ago and simply don't give up any prospects with decent value for relievers unless you're dealing with Ned Colletti. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are a mess, thus Colletti wasn't available for a fleecing. In 2008, Chad Bradford was a 33 year old reliever-with an additional season of control-who was traded to the Rays for.... nothing. The Rays picked up his salary while the Orioles got a bag of balls. Bradford isn't the strikeout artist like Koji, but he had excellent control and put up great numbers. And unlike Koji, there weren't as many health questions surrounding Chad at the time. Hell, teams don't trade for old relievers much at all because, well, they're OLD (unless they're part of a larger trade in order to balance out the value of players being exchanged). Today, the Orioles managed to get more than a bag of balls or an organizational player for Koji. Frankly, if the O's could have traded Koji for Davis or Hunter ALONE, this would have been a good trade. The fact that they got both makes it a great trade. Should the Orioles traded for prospects? Of course. Should Minka Kelly be dating me instead of Derek Jeter. Of course, but neither is realistic.

So what did the Orioles receive? There is a decent chance that Davis is a AAAA player. He has terrific AAA numbers, with the normal caveats that apply to PCL numbers, and could end up as a decent regular 1B. I haven't ran his MLEs yet, but I'm curious to see them. In the big leagues, he put a 1 fWAR season in 2008 over 80 games before tanking thereafter. His defense is average at best at 1B, but he could be an early version of Casey Kotchman bat wise. He's nothing to get terribly excited for, but he could be a competent player who's under control for several seasons. Tommy Hunter is the much better piece of this trade.

Hunter is a good back of the rotation guy who is under control through 2014. He sports a decidedly average ERA+ of 104 over 266 innings. I guess you could say who cares about a back of the rotation guy, but the O's really don't have much back there right now. Jake Arrieta is kind of scuffling while 3E1N isn't consistent enough to fill that spot. That leaves guys like Weak Sauce or Mitch Atkins. I much rather have Hunter than any of these guys.

Overall, are Davis and Hunter 20 years olds on the cusp of greatness? Of course not. Andy did the next best thing by getting guys in mid their 20s for a reliever who would only provide 1 maybe 2 wins next season. I suspect Hunter and Davis will provide much more than 1-2 wins the next several seasons. We won't have them for six seasons like a prospect trade but the Orioles did next best thing by getting guys with several seasons of control. And if Hunter continues his current performance, unlike Koji, he will have trade value to land prospects. Just because Andy couldn't land prospects doesn't mean the trade shouldn't have been done or isn't worth doing. I'm not saying I'm getting off the Fire Andy ship, but he made a great trade today, and he deserves credit for that.

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Comments

Just daring me to author a counterpoint at this stage

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 30, 2011 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

do it!

i’m off to the golf course though.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 30, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

You should, but understand....

unless you can make a case for Koji being a factor for the Orioles in 2013 or later, you lose.

by MGM31 on Jul 30, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

there are no winners and losers, just people presenting their viewpoints.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 31, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

The issue isn't should they have traded Koji, or not

I think its fairly indisputable that this trade made us better. The issue is whether or not we should have made THIS trade, instead of one that could have potentially had an even better return. That question is much less clear.

by kba26 on Jul 31, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, and it’s hard to know what other offers were out there. I’m guessing this was by far and away the best offer out there, but I’m just guessing.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 31, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like this was a very safe offer

but of course theres no way to know what to compare it to. If it was out there, i would have preferred less proven prospects with higher ceilings, because i feel like we need to at least give ourselves the chance to hit a home run. This is likely just a small, but somewhat assured improvement to the team. Better than no trade at all, but not one that is going to really do much to turn around this team.

by kba26 on Jul 31, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

no trade involving koji was ever going to turn this team around.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 31, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

on its own, of course not

I’m just saying we probably could have gotten an offer that was a little higher on the risk/reward scale.

by kba26 on Jul 31, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose a prospect like Aaron Baker could have been acquired. But it’s not Davis doesn’t have upside. His AAA numbers suggest he has potential he hasn’t realized. If you want more upside, then you see it as a Aaron Baker versus Davis/Hunter trade. I’m leaning toward the later trade as better.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 31, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm curious why you believe this.

You state yourself you have no way of knowing. So why make the presumption that there was a better deal to be made?

We see this all the time. Certain teams are named as being interested or talking to our team. Names may be bandied about – most likely a result of someone looking at 40 man rosters coming up with a wish list. And when nothing happens with a particular trade we get either “The GM was afraid to pull the trigger.” or “He could have gotten a better deal.”

I’m not sure I even understand your point about getting a deal that was higher on the risk / reward scale. Some toolsey, athletic guy who hasn’t exactly put up great numbers in the minors? Some guy who was projecting really high before suffering an injury? No thanks to either.

"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –

by timg56 on Aug 1, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Call it a gut feeling or whatever

but I’d base it at least partially on MacPhail’s comments that he was looking for “major-league ready” players in return for some deals. That makes me think he wasn’t even willing to consider deals that focused on younger, less proven commodities (which may have precluded teams from even presenting such offers.) And that doesn’t necessarily mean toolsy players that haven’t gotten results or injury risks, but players who at least have the chance of becoming stars, even if they may end up not even cracking the majors.

Koji for Davis and Hunter might be a net win for the Orioles, but we aren’t cracking .500, much less the playoffs, with those sorts of players. We need to be looking for players that at least have star potential instead of safe picks that are likely to be ok, but never great.

by kba26 on Aug 1, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

GRR

“The Orioles sent $2 million to the Rangers to help cover Uehara’s salary.”
makes me a bit less content with this trade. I won’t make them, but there are those that could argue Koji was among the best relievers in the league.

by neveraging on Jul 30, 2011 7:33 PM EDT reply actions

i'm can deal with that, a back end rotation guy is typically worth more than 2M.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 30, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Could argue?

Statistically, it is fact.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 30, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Saves are a statistic

and therefore, he is only ok.

by kba26 on Jul 30, 2011 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions

The O's suck

It makes me sick to my stomach. Turn on the tube and they are down 15 to 0 to the yanks. What a joke. I will check back in 5 years to see if anything changed.

"I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok. " - Shaq

by williamhudsonlink on Jul 30, 2011 10:05 PM EDT reply actions

You're a true fan!

Where’s the positivity?

/Dick Lynch’d

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by organizedchaos52 on Jul 30, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

If he's that angry, he really is a fan.

He would just be apathetic if he wasn’t. I didn’t much have an opinion on the Pirates 18 year drought, and I’m not really caring about them now. Therefore I’m not a Pirates fan. However, I’m frustrated with this team, and I guess that makes me a fan, no matter how much I’m trying to root for another team.

by miskatonic86 on Jul 30, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

See you in 5 if they have not changed the locks.

by Commanche on Jul 30, 2011 10:18 PM EDT reply actions

I feel bad for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter, they should just retire now while they still have their dignity.

by BrianS on Jul 30, 2011 10:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Agree with OP

This was a very solid trade. It’s not a franchise-changer, and it will probably result in a few more ugly stomach-churning late-inning blowups that we would have seen otherwise, but it’s a smart trade. Honestly, it’s a good trade for both teams as Texas gets a needed piece. Koji is useful to them this year and perhaps next, which makes him irrelevant as an Oriole.

I think it’s probably folly to expect as much, but I can see Chris Davis as a late-bloomer who finds his feet in a situation like this one where he’s basically handed the job. The last several years, he’s had to compare himself to prospects like Justin Smoak and Mitch Moreland whom the Rangers have made no secret of preferring.

Also, while Arlington is a hell of a hitters’ park, I’m betting that Davis is probably salivating over the 318-foot right field line and the opportunity to bang line drives off the scoreboard.

Hunter is a guy whom I have confidence in to be a mediocre every-5th-day starter who will translate later in his career into an upgrade over Jason Berken as a long man.

There is no chance that Koji will be on the next good Orioles team. There’s probably a 25% chance that one of these guys will be. Therefore, this is a good, solid trade.

by MGM31 on Jul 30, 2011 10:31 PM EDT reply actions

Davis is terrific at 1st base...

"Look if you want a journalist hire a UT grad. If you want a doctor you pick a Baylor grad. If you need a vet you see an Aggie grad. And if you need a pizza you call a Tech grad." -BUBacker

by Mike E on Jul 31, 2011 4:16 AM EDT reply actions

This trade

Taking someone with an injury history and advanced age (and short contract) and turning him into a former ranked prospect and a pitcher with ML success is a clear win for the O’s. Will Hunter be an ace? of course not, but he can be at worst a quality MR and at best a solid MOTR guy.

Davis is the big swing. He’s a quality defensive 1B, and, while his numbers havent been spectacular, they still translate to an upgrade over anything we have in our system, and even a small uptick in his BA with regular at bats could see him become a ML regular.

by ADLC on Jul 31, 2011 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

The Rangers also acquired Mike Adams from the Padres

For 2 pitching prospects, Robbie Erlin (ranked #4 in the Rangers system, and top-35 in all of baseball) and Joe Wieland. I still like the return on the Koji trade, but I wonder if Andy could have gotten Erlin instead of Hunter?

Wishing Frank McCourt had been approved to buy the RedSux.....

by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 31, 2011 3:31 PM EDT reply actions

But, then I guess

the word all along was that Andy wanted ‘ML ready’ starting pitching in any deal, so he probably never even inquired about Erlin.

Wishing Frank McCourt had been approved to buy the RedSux.....

by PBR me ASAP! on Jul 31, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

We'd have been so better off with either Erlin or Wieland.

To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa

by James F on Jul 31, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I just saw that. IF Andy could have gotten Erlin, and I doubt he could have, then he should have gotten him instead of Hunter. That is a complete no brainer. Adams is a much less of health risk than Uehara and should command more value especially considering that the O’s have avoided using Koji on back to back days. That said, I’m surprised Texas gave up those guys from Adams.

I just read Keith Law’s take. He profiles Hunter as a reliever, which diminishes my enthusiasm for this trade considerably. I hope they at least try him out as a starter. If he fails, fine, move him to the pen, but at least try.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 31, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

Look at the return Doug Fister. Wow. He’s pretty a Tommy Hunter type caliber of pitcher and he brought back FOUR prospects. Granted none of them are very good, but that’s still a good haul for the M’s.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Jul 31, 2011 5:42 PM EDT reply actions