Recapping the Orioles' Trade Deadline
by Andrew_G on Aug 1, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
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Sunday afternoon marked the non-waiver trade deadline, and the Orioles did some things. Let's review (with all salary and service time coming from the amazing Cot's Contracts):
Koji Uehara and the approximately 1 million dollars remaining on his contract for this year (and his 4 million dollar vesting option for 2012), along with 2 million dollars cash were traded to the Texas Rangers for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. Hunter and Davis are owed a combined approx. 300,000 dollars in 2011 and who are both under contract through 2015.
Derrek Lee and the approx. $2.5 million still owed to him (and the much-discussed $2.75 million in service time bonuses Lee is on pace to accrue), along with "between $500,000 and $1.75 million depending on how many plate appearances Lee ends up with" (per The Sun) were traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for non-prospect low-minors first baseman Aaron Baker.
So, all in all, the Orioles shaved about 1.2 million dollars off their 2011 budget, and saved around one million dollars of what they would have owed Lee in bonuses. They also dropped their already-committed 2012 budget by 3 million dollars (assuming both that Koji's option will vest and Hunter and Davis are both still in Baltimore next season). They also, of course, effectively replace Lee with Davis and Koji with Hunter (who will be used as a starting pitcher).
In case you are unaware of the rules governing the trading rules, the "non-waiver trading deadline" is the last point in the season where a player can be freely traded to another team without any obstacles and/or hoops needing to be jumped over/through. Throughout August, however, players who are traded need to be first put on revocable waivers, where any team can claim the player. The waiving team can then pull the player back, which means they keep him for the remainder of the season, or simply give the player and his contract to the claiming team for no return. Any player that goes unclaimed can then be traded as normal.
So, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that the Orioles roster will still see some changes before the year ends, but the idea of any critical pieces coming back our way is unrealistic. And of course the salaries potentially being dumped will get smaller and smaller as time goes by. So this is basically what it is: two young players in, two old players out, and about $2MM in the bank.
(A note: The rest of this post exists more or less as a counter-point to an earlier, more optimistic post by birdman, which I highly recommend.)
The two newest Orioles are both interesting but flawed players. Chris Davis has been a high-power, low-OBP hitter who struggles against lefties in his brief major league experience. This year in the hitting-friendly Pacific Coast League Davis has clobbered a 1.229 OPS in 48 games, but did it without showing much walk-drawing talent, and his .368 batting average is highly unlikely to translate to the AL East. Still he's an interesting guy who could maybe make a name for himself in Baltimore if the Orioles give him an extended opportunity to prove himself.
Of course, based on the terribly stupid way the Orioles have treated Nolan Reimold this year, I can't think of a single reason why they'd actually give that extended chance to Davis.
Tommy Hunter is to me much less interesting, a pitcher likely to put up an ERA in the high 4s. He doesn't strike out many batters and relies on low walk numbers. That vague description draws comparisons in my brain to Brad Bergesen. So there's that. Hunter is just 25, so maybe he can get a bit better, but he probably is what he is.
The Orioles are better after these trades than before, but Hunter and Davis certainly don't really fix any of the myriad of big problems on the team, even though the net return seems pretty decent. The extra cash on hand is certainly nice as the Orioles try to sign some of their unsigned and expensive draftees (well, I hope it could go towards them, anyway) like Dylan Bundy, Jason Coats, Jason Esposito, or Nick Delmonico. It's not a lot of extra money to play with, but if it's the difference between nobody and Coats, that makes the trade look that much better (and the off-season signings that much more misguided).
Taken as the Orioles' "big trade deadline moves", these acquisitions fit right in with the overall (and to my mind misguided) team philosophy of relying on the core that is already in Baltimore to develop into a playoff contender. If the O's will need to go through another serious rebuilding effort - which seems right now pretty likely - then that process (and the point in time of coming out of rebuilding) has been put off at least until this winter and more likely until this time next year at the earliest.
In other words, there's still a lot of work to be done in Baltimore to bring the organization's talent level up to where it needs to be. But, well, what else is new, huh?
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Davis struggles against lefties
Welcome Home!!
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
Davis struggles against lefties
Welcome Home!!
FTFY.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
"relying on the core that is already in Baltimore to develop into a playoff contender"
Do you really believe that the O’s think they have a core set of players who can contend? I find it much more believable that they think they have a core set of players who can win more than they lose, and that is priority #1.
Or perhaps I lowered my expectations so that the O’s decisions make some kind of sense.
If the warehouse's ultimate goal is to just break .500
then we are all of us completely and utterly screwed. But I have a hard time believing that.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
I think we have seen plenty to think .500 is a key motivator
Andy MacPhail made two trades after he declared the minors to be barren.
Since that time, they’ve done little to build up the minors (stockpile inventory) which he claimed was necessary for building a winning club. They will tell us they are spending more in the rule 4 draft, but at the same time, they are losing the ‘inventory’ battle to the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays. You think MacPhail thinks the minors now have the requisite ‘inventory’? I find it difficult to think he believes that.
So where’s the money going? They are paying some decent money to high draft picks, and paying over slot for a few later picks. They locked up Markakis a few years back and have otherwise spent money exactly as they O’s have in the past: on suspect free agents. This year MacPhail seemed to be banking on the pitching turn around we say in 2010. Do you really think he believed that Vlad and Lee would propel the team to contention? I don’t. I think he thought they just might get to .500 ball. Why make those moves unless getting some wins was not the priority?
If he thinks he has the core to push for contention, then we’re screwed as well. It just seems more logical to me that he has greater pressure to win 81 games so as to get that monkey of the O’s back.
The pitchers
are, and will remain, key. Matusz, Tillman, Britton, don’t give up on them yet. They can be a lot better, OK none have the makeup to be #1 starters but a team can win with a bunch of #3 starters if one guy has a career year.
Why make those moves unless getting some wins was not the priority?
Because:
A) – Baltimore had an anemic middle of the order last year
and
B) – With the possible exception of Reimold, there is nothing in the system in the way of position players capable of playing at the Major League level
and
C) – There wasn’t much else out there to go get.
Signing Lee and Vladdy to 1 year deals doesn’t hurt anything, except possibly taking dollars away from international development and scouting department upgrades, which isn’t an organization priority anyway – a totally separate discussion. So the question is, so what if they made some minor offseason moves that – by themselves – would at best result in nothing better than a chance at .500 ball. It is still an improvement.
The problem isn’t with the team signing a Derrick Lee or Vlad Guererro. The problem is a failure of the pitchers to perform to expectation.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
well, those two signings totally blocked Reimold
so that hurt. And they were overly expensive and bad value deals, and while that doesn’t have any specific, tangible hurt, it still hurts if nothing else in a utility cost sense.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Signing Vlad blocked Reimold, not signing Lee.
And if I am recalling correctly, Reimold wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in AAA.
It sounds like a coin flip – does Nolan get back to his rookie season level vs. does Vlad have one more year in him.
If the answer is yes to Vlad having one more year, it has the dual advantage of helping the team get over the .500 mark and probably provide younger guys at the mid season trading deadline. Deciding to give (and that is exactly what it would have been) the job to Reimold is the conservative decision. Gambling on Guererro it the riskier one, but which also offers the higher reward.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
Reimold wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in AAA.
Well, the point is give him a chance to develop while facing ML pitchers.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
The counter argument is ...
… it usually isn’t the best idea to have your players learn the game at the ML level.
Reimold showed his rookie season that he has the makings of a ML player. Injury side-tracked him. However his performance in AAA last season and the start of this season was nothing special. In fact it was arguably disappointing. In otherwords, he was a question mark for the team.
Guererro was also a question mark, but of a different sort. If he panned out, then he’s a contributor at the ML level and possible trade chip. The only downside is the blocking of a guy with question marks associated with his performance.
Lets assume that Reimold was his old self and tearing up AAA. The Vlad gamble fails – i.e. below average performance and no trade value – and all Baltimore is out is the loss of half a season of a red hot Reimold. I see that as a reasonable price. Particularly considering that even now with a spot opened up, Reimold is still not able to lock down the position.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
it usually isn’t the best idea to have your players learn the game at the ML level.
Depends on the players. Obviously you don’t want to rush a player. But Reimold was clearly ready for ML level pitching and has nothing to learn from AAA pitching (sort of like Montero this year).
Lets assume that Reimold was his old self and tearing up AAA. The Vlad gamble fails – i.e. below average performance and no trade value – and all Baltimore is out is the loss of half a season of a red hot Reimold. I see that as a reasonable price.
I see that as a lost development opportunity. I leave it up to you as to what’s reasonable.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
Sigh
Guererro was also a question mark, but of a different sort. If he panned out, then he’s a contributor at the ML level and possible trade chip. The only downside is the blocking of a guy with question marks associated with his performance.
This implies that the quality of the gamble doesn’t matter, like it was a 50-50 shot that Vlad might be good or might suck. Of course, this isn’t the case. Vlad was a lousy gamble from the start, an extreme longshot who had a very low probability of coming in. And it was a lousy gamble for big stakes, with the O’s staking $8M on the very slim chance that Vlad would still be a valuable player. It was a sucker bet from the beginning.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
You got to the heart of the issue (and it is a different discussion)
Yeah, the money spent on Vlad and Lee said trying to get 81 wins was more important than spending the money to continue building from the bottom up. It was not spent on scouting (international or otherwise). MacPhail abandoned his stated intentions to go after 81 wins. That’s how I read those moves.
by drj on Aug 1, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
And as they are already on record as not having much faith in the international market and so far results at patchy at best that their system can identify talent better than their competition, we as fans are most likely hosed.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
.500 sucks
You want to know the only real difference between the Orioles and a .500 team?
The Orioles get to draft Dylan Bundy and a .500 team gets to draft Sonny Gray.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
To borrow an NFL example
There’s a reason the 49ers are sticking with Alex Smith at QB this year.
It’s because Andrew Luck is the #1 pick next year.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
To stick to baseball...
…how good are the Rays if they never got the chance to select top draft picks B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, David Price and Evan Longoria?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Given that, how LUCKY are they all four turned out the way they did?
Meanwhile, back at OPaCY, we’re still looking at Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts as the only competent MLB players we’ve drafted in the last 10 years, and even they aren’t exactly top 5 in their positions in offense, and two of them aren’t Top 5 in defense, either.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
We drafted Roberts in 1999, so he doesn't even count for the last 10 years.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
They had tons of prospects, though
They got lucky with those 4 because they had tons of high quality guys who didn’t make it.
Also, the Rays are better at player development than the Orioles.
They weren't especially lucky
From 1999 to 2008, the Rays had ten first round draft picks, all of which were in the top ten overall and eight of which were in the top five. They were:
Josh Hamilton, first overall – we all know this story. Flamed out while with the Rays in legendary fashion and was lost in the Rule V draft for absolutely nothing. Huge bust for Tampa
Rocco Baldelli, sixth overall – a good but not quite great player for the Rays who was plagued by injuries and eventually a degenerative disorder. A pretty successful pick, but one that lost a lot of its potential value due to unpredictable events
Dewon Brazelon, third overall – a huge, huge bust for Tampa. Never had any success in the majors.
BJ Upton, second overall – a good but frustrating player who has never managed to live up to his potential, but has still been a valuable contributor. Somewhat of a win for Tampa.
Delmon Young, first overall – never lived up to his potential in the majors. But Tampa managed to spin him into Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, two key contributors in their recent success who have since been dealt to other teams in exchange for players who are and will in the future provide value. And fundamentally, Young’s elite potential is what made that possible.
Jeff Neimann, fourth overall – a slightly above pitcher in the majors without a lot of upside. Hasn’t come close to his draft day potential, due to injuries that were foreseen by many. Still, he’s an above average starter in the majors. We’ll call this one a push
Wade Townsend, eighth overall – Drafting Townsend turned out even worse for Tampa than it did for us.
Evan Longoria, third overall – huge, huge win
David Price, first overall – Definite win, although hasn’t been quite as good as people thought he might be.
Tim Beckham, first overall – This was considered to be a bust, but Beckham has rebounded this year, although he still isn’t looking like an elite prospect. Disappointment to date and probably in the future, but is putting up enough of a fight that the jury has to stay out.
So, in ten years, picking near the top of the draft, the Rays had three outright busts, and only three outright wins. Seems to me their luck was just about average, although the fact that Longoria is an absolute star pushes it into some category above merely a win.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
i'm amazed by this post.
It would probably take me a good 30-60 minutes to pull out that info and make any comments about it. Of course, i’d probably end up with so many open tabs anyway, that I’d get completely distracted and forget what I was doing.
it’s not that they’re lucky, it’s that we’re unlucky.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
The Niners can't be any worse than the Redskins.
I’d take Alex Smith over whatever scrub the Skins are going to start at QB. Although it would be cool to see Luck play for Harbaugh again.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
and because Alex Smith is better than anyone else out there…
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Sadly, he is.
At a minimum, he is better than all three QBs on the Skins roster. In fact, he’s probably better than all three combined.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
seriously, look at their options, it was pretty much Alex Smith or starting Kaepernick right from the get-go which would be absolutely disastrous. I know the Harbaugh connection is there, but I don’t even see them being bad enough to get the top pick in the first place, it’s another question entirely about whether they wouldn’t just take the chance to plunder some other team’s draft and trade it.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
They won't be getting Luck.
Taking Kaepernick this year almost guarantees you of that. If they end up with the number 1 pick, I’d see them trading down since there are many teams (read: Redskins) who would give up a fortune to trade up.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah the Kaepernick pick pretty much sold me on the fact that it wasn’t happening. you don’t just take two quarterbacks in the first two round in back to back years. that’s some Al Davis shit right there.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Andy's public comments show he thinks they have the core who can contend.
I base that mostly on what he said about the young pitching a couple of weeks ago and he basically said he thinks they will turn things around. And yeah, I guess if the Orioles rotation suddenly turned into the Angels’ rotation then the Orioles might be closer to contending. Although they’d still have the third-worst bullpen ERA and pretty much the worst defense in MLB.
So… I hope what Andy says publicly isn’t necessarily what he actually believes, more something he feels he has to say. But I think that his actions are consistent with him actually believing the O’s have the core in place and that it just needs to develop.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Eat More Esskay...let's talk. You said the other day that you lurk at LSB and that I've never been right on anything that you can recall.
Let’s see…I said Ian Kinsler was going to be a very good major leaguer although that was in Spring Training 2005.
I said that Tom Hicks was up to no good following the 2004 season.
I said before the 2007 season the Rangers had 75 win talent (they went 75-87 that year).
I predicted before 2010 that the SFO Giants would go to the World Series.
I said that CJ Wilson reminded me of an early 90s Kenny Rogers and that he could become an excellent starter.
I said the Rangers were screwing up big-time by trying to make Feliz a starter.
I said the Rangers were screwing up big-time by leaving Chris Davis in The Show after June 1 2009 and were killing their season by bringing him back up in late August.
When Nolan Ryan was hired, I said it was the greatest day in the history of the franchise and that if you weren’t good at your job, you’d be gone.
Lurk some more over at LSB and you might learn something else.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Why exactly are you here?
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Off days are pretty boring.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Answering Eat Esskay's shot at me.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I was being hyperbolic.
I will concede it was not a very nice thing for me to say, but I was just trying to generate some discussion here. That was poor judgment on my part, and bad blog diplomacy as well.
Before yesterday I don’t think anybody on this blog knew Chris Davis from a hole in the wall. Today I would say we have one game of data on him, which isn’t much. So the opinion of someone who’s had an emotional investment as a fan of Davis for years is a welcome addition to breaking down the O’s trade deadline, and, moreover, I think one of the cool things about SBN is one can go around and shoot the breeze with other teams’ fans.
That said, remember: this thread is not about you. This blog is not about you. This thread is about the Orioles at the trade deadline and this blog is about the Orioles. This post will be the last about you in this thread.
If you came here to post because I called you an idiot, then for real: I am sorry. I don’t have sufficient evidence to make that claim and I should not have done so. Depart in peace with an untroubled soul. If you came here under an earnest desire to share some thoughts on Chris Davis, then that’s great. If you came here to do that thing I’ve seen on the Rangers blog where a thread gets blown into a million max-indented arguments, I would advise you to reconsider, because the umpire (in this case, me) is heavily biased in favor of the home team.
I’ll give you this one for free: below, there is a post by O’sFan21 who is just the sort of person with whom you might be tempted to launch such a max-indented argument. Resist that temptation and we can all get along, have fun, and maybe learn something about the new players our respective teams have acquired.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
You know...
I think we learned something here today.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
by duck on Aug 1, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
On Bleacher Report
they always call the Ranger’s ballpark the best, or one of the best, hitters’ parks in MLB. So if Davis can’t hit there, I’m guessing the hope is that Presley can make him an MLB hitter in Baltimore, which is closer to a mid-hitters park. I’m not sure that makes sense, but Davis may yet learn to hit.
Of course, a lot of places like Bleacher Report and Fan Graphics always ignore soul-killing strikeouts that do nobody any good and a low batting average that means you don’t advance runners much. So those places will go gaga over Davis like they did Reynolds even with all the huge holes they create. Hopefully Davis will be good on D at least, and supersede Reynolds a lot, a lot.
let me ask you
do you want to have a serious conversation about the offensive value of certain players, or do you want to just troll? Because Lord knows I love trolling, but I’m getting twitchy wanting to actually talk about this everytime you bring it up.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Where the scouts hang out, duh.
Get a brain, moran!
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
But only the scouts who think strikeouts are "soul-killing"
and that a low batting average paired with a high OBP and SLG somehow doesn’t advance runners.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
But... but they don't list OBP and SLG under the player's names when they show them on TV!
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Aug 1, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, did you SERIOUSLY just quote Bleacher Report as a source of analysis?
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
I didn't get here in time to warn him in time about bleacher report
I learned my lesson a ways back.
shhhh.....its a secret place that only scouts understand!
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
I came to answer that shot across the bow and to also give you an
informed opinion on Chris Davis (and Tommy Hunter as well).
I’m not talking smack on the Orioles…we just went thru a horrible decade ourselves and I’m sympathetic to your plight.
I think this trade is going to help the team much more than most of you realize.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Right.....we did need better depth at AAA.
So yes, it helps some.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
hehe
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
/Matt Foley voice
WELL LA DE FREAKIN’ DA.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
you said this
So… I hope what Andy says publicly isn’t necessarily what he actually believes, more something he feels he has to say. But I think that his actions are consistent with him actually believing the O’s have the core in place and that it just needs to develop.
You are sitting on the fence. Is he saying something he has to and doesn’t quite believe, or saying something he believes? All I’m ultimately getting at is his moves make it seem the former is more logical than the later.
I *hope* he is saying something he has to.
My opinion is that he is saying something he honestly believes, however.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Hello fans of all things Bird...Josey Wales from the greatness of Lone Star Ball checking in and I come in peace to discuss the trade.
First of all, I think your team is doing some of the right things to become better. I said before the season the O’s would win 77 games in 2011 and didn’t discount the possibility of you finishing above .500 (depending on what the MF Yankees did). Buck is a very good manager and you have a lot of young talented players in place. It didn’t happen this year but Buck has a good track record of turning things around in his second full year.
The Trade…
Tommy Hunter should become a 3-4 starter who gives you 175 IPs and a league average ERA. THAT alone makes the trade of a 36 year old relief pitcher a good one. The peripherals may look sketchy and were debated a lot at LSB but this is a kid who put up Game Scores of 50+ in 28 of his first 42 starts (beginning in 2009) and had an ERA of 3.38 in Arlington. He’s not dominant by any means but he is very serviceable.
Chris Davis….probably THE most debated player over at LSB. He’s not a 3B. He’s a 1B and defensively, he’s every bit as good as both AG and Teixeira. He came up midway thru 2008 and was fantastic but every weakness he had as a hitter (inability to walk and contact) was exposed in 2009.
Chris Davis was completely mishandled by the front office of the Texas Rangers that season and the damage proved to be irreparable. He should have been sent to the minors on June 1 but was allowed to drown…gawd it was awful – we’re talking 114Ks in 277 plate appearances with a .255ish OBP for a team that was in a pennant race!!!!
So Davis has been up ‘n down since July 2009. He absolutely murders AAA pitching (24 bombs thus far although he’s also spent a month in The Show) but hasn’t been able to get it done for the Rangers at the big league level.
If Davis can get his wheels back on (and I’d estimate the chances of that happening at 40-50%), he could be something special. A Gold Glove caliber 1B who hits 35 bombs a year.
I think the trade is probably a win-win. Our window to win it all is open from 2011-2012 and we needed to beef up the bullpen. The O’s are 23 games out on August 1 and cashed in a 36 year old relief pitcher for a serviceable starter and a player who has the physical talent to become a star.
You did quite well.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
"Chris Davis was mishandled"
So he’s already used to the treatment he’s going to get here! That’s great news!
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
hey Josey
I don’t really have a problem with the trade, but rather that this was all there was. It’s not going to cut it in the AL East to keep running into battle with this roster, even with Hunter and Davis. There’s needs to be some bold new something. And I have no idea what that could possibly, realistically be with the current front office.
Re: Hunter – in 2011 the AL league average ERA is 3.92. If he pitches at that level it will either be because he got a lot better or he got really lucky. And with the O’s defense behind him…yeah, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Re: Davis’ defense – Come on.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Hunter does need a good defense behind him because he doesn't have dominant stuff but he did pitch very well in Arlington (3.38 ERA / 151 IPs). Everything you hear about
Arlington being a tough place to pitch is true and the defensively sub-par Young was at 3B from 2009-10 while Hank Blalock manned quite a bit of 1B as well.
Davis defense? It’s the truth. He’s absolutely one of the best defensive 1B I’ve seen and we had Tex here for 4-5 years. Smooth, athletic, great hands. Has the accurate arm and range that’s needed, will dive for balls and make every conceivable scoop. He’s really that good.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
How come the defensive metrics and folks at fangraphs disagree regarding Davis' defense?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
He's a terrible 3B but an excellent 1B.
Trust me on that one.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Well we'll just wait for our resident scout, dsciswe, to give us the real scoop there.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
Its obviously a joke.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
Trust you huh?
Yeah I’ll just ignore all his statistics and the opinions of people who are paid to evaluate players and trust some dude off of the Ranger’s blog.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
You will love his defense if he's kept at 1B.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I will love his defense
If he can catch all of those Mark Reynolds offerings that 10-foot tall, 15-foot wingspan Derek Lee was able to scoop with ease.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Aug 1, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
I trust people who watch and have a vested interest in a guy over metrics which say nothing about team impact, soul-killing strikeouts, park effect (think Granderson pounds home runs in Oakland? But metrics say he’s a fantastic, just great player this year). As is often, sabermetrics lovers hate the Giants, who do better and won a WS with lousy saber stats.
Take a good look at Davis career numbers at Oakland, LAAA and Seattle.
All decided pitcher’s parks and I think his career OPS at those places is something like 1100 in 140 plate appearances.
Davis needs a shorter memory, more confidence and to find a way to get on base via the walk.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
If there's one thing playing for this black hole of an organization does,
it’s instill confidence
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Aug 1, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
He hates Reynolds, remember?
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
Right, but i've seen republican congressmen have a harder time sticking to talking points
by kba26 on Aug 1, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't know how to do the the line through thing ...
… but that sentence should read " I’ve seen congressmen have a harder time sticking to talking points."
If you believe one party is better at this than the other, hook me up with your dealer. You are obviously smoking the high quality stuff.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
The Republicans are way better at it
and thats not an insult. Democrats are never able to put forth a unified front, which is why they’re currently getting their asses kicked despite holding a majority in the senate and the white house.
And despite holding a position
that most of the nation supports on the issue that’s currently dominating the headlines.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
The Koji trade?
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
by timg56 on Aug 1, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Republicans are legendary for their message discpline
Trust me, in the inner sanctums of Democratic campaign rooms, they WISH they had the message discipline as a party as the Republicans do.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
I thought about bring up this point ...
… but decided it was too nice a day to get into a political argument.
Or at least any more into one.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
I think we're in complete agreement on this
Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line. :)
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
And in the end, we all get fucked.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
Wait, hold on.
You think sabermetricians don’t look at park effects? A key tenet of sabermetrics is putting things in context and, thus, considering park effects. And about the Giants, first of all, the team that wins the WS is by no means the best team in baseball. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Getting there is the real test. Besides, the Giants led baseball in WAR last year (I believe fWAR). So the stats didn’t say they suck. Sabermetricians just believe that the Giants weren’t the best team in baseball last year, because accumulative WAR isn’t necessarily the best way to determine that.
I'd take issue with one point.
… the team that wins the WS is by no means the best team in baseball. …
They are the best team, buy the simple fact ultimate success in baseball means winning the World Series. Any other definition or metric is nothing more than something to argue over in a bar (or on a blog).
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
Yes, ultimate success in baseball is winning the World Series.
But winning the World Series does not make you the best team. World Champion sure, but not the best team. They weren’t better than the Rays, Yankees, Phillies, and maybe even the Rangers. Winning the World Series doesn’t change that.
If you are not the team standing on top when it's all said and done ...
… you are not the best team.
Doesn’t matter who has the best pitching or hitting statistics. Hell, it doesn’t even matter who won the most games – although that is possibly the only outside claim a team might be able to make at being the best and not winning the title.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
My point is that the small sample size of the playoffs allows inferior teams to beat superior ones.
In Moneyball, Lewis points out that the then terrible Rays still could win a playoff series against the Yankees.
Please tell me...
soul-killing strikeouts
you were making a joke at your own expense here?
More to the point, advanced metrics are best used to handicap performance over a longer stretch of time, hence the frequent use of SSS as a qualifier when discussing a player and his performance. That shit went exactly right for the Giants in the super small sample of the playoffs (including them facing off against uber-genius Ron Washington, who put Vlad and his “soul-killing” defense out in RF) doesn’t speak to validity of SABR thinking.
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 1, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
sample size is too small to make an accurate judgement from his big league time so far
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
too small a sample size for scouting reports???
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
i mean if you're looking at fangraphs' numbers
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
but no scouts think he's any good defensively either do they?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I can only speak for those that I read
like Keith Law who said “he’s a good athlete who might be able to handle third base, though first is more likely”.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
good athlete who might be able to handle third base
sounds a lot like Mark Reynolds pre-2011.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Emphasis on the...
might.
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 1, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I can think of a scout that probably would....
(ret’d)
"Human beings make life so interesting. Do you know, that in a universe so full of wonders, they have managed to invent boredom?" ~ Death
fan scouting reports on fangraphs
also have him at average (+1-2 runs). our friend from LSB doesn’t hold the prevailing opinion on davis.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
nobody is ever just a "pretty good" defensive player, you ever notice that?
everyone’s always got to go right to the extremes.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Just when I thought the O's might wise up and try to see what Reynolds could do at 1B.
We get his mirror image…
Make Reynolds the DH and give Vlad his walking papers.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I don't think you'll find much argument with that sentiment on this blog.
Though there’s also the possible frightening reality that there isn’t a better option at 3B. I mean, Josh Bell? I dunno.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Kind of sad that people not watching the O’s regularly can figure this one out and our FO can’t.
Back on the Sweed train. Choo Choo!
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Aug 1, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
if only we were actually getting another Mark Reynolds…
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hahaha.....6 percent walk rate.
This is gonna be great.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
Obviously a guy the O's targeted.
They know they won’t have to waste time teaching him to unlearn bad habits.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
What was the league average among starters?
by Wieters Wieners on Aug 1, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Andrew's 3.92 number is the median AL team ERA for starters.
Seven teams are below it and seven teams are above it. The O’s have the worst at 5.12. The Angels have the best at 3.35.
What really kills the O’s is having the fewest innings thrown by starters by a wide margin. O’s starters are averaging about 5.1 IP. The average is about 6 IP.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Davis = Pena?
Maybe Davis can turn into what Carlos Pena turned into for the Rays after struggling for several years. He had three monster years after being traded 4 times and labeled as washed up.
by Sno Alchemist on Aug 1, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's our best case scenario.
Which we know never comes true.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Also...
Pena was never that much of a stud if you take out his 2007 resurgence. From 2008 to the present day, Adam Jones is a 9.3 win player, Pena is at 8.5. During this time Pena has been playing in his yr 30-33 seasons, Jones in his yr 22-25 seasons. There exists a strong possibility that should Adam continue his pace this year into next (and develops some modicum of defensive proficiency, like slightly less than league average), he’ll have put up better WAR numbers than Pena.
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 1, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s a 1B and defensively, he’s every bit as good as both AG and Teixeira.
Really? I really hope that’s true, but that’s not all what I’ve heard. I’m hearing he’s pretty average. And that numbers support that.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
i'll take averag over soul-crushingingly bad
like reynolds at 3rd (notice it’s his D, not his Ks, that crush souls, especially those of britton and matusz)
Why does Felix Pie continue to get starts?
Why don’t they just stick with Reimhold? Am I missing something?
Andy doesn't like how he couldn't rein in that foul mouthed Axel Foley.
"Human beings make life so interesting. Do you know, that in a universe so full of wonders, they have managed to invent boredom?" ~ Death
The other day, I went to imdb to see what Judge Reinhold has been up to since the
early 90’s. The answer was nothing… nothing at all.
Sounds like he would be a perfect fit in left field.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
HBT poses an interesting question...
Could the Orioles have turned J.J. Hardy into Colby Rasmus?
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
you know that Guthrie and Hardy would not fly
Who knows if MacPhail will continue to listen to offers for Guthrie in the off season. I figure that’s a better idea than giving up those two guys for Rasmus. Andy likes to get back numbers, and I have to figure he was looking for a few players for Guthrie.
by drj on Aug 1, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
what am I missing about Rasmus?
He doesn’t look like much of an upgrade over Jones. He’s got better OBP, but Jones has more power, and his defense metrics, like Jones’, look rather suspect. His total WAR is comparable to Jones, and he’s a year younger, but a lot comes from a great 2010 where he had a BABIP of .354
On Rasmus, it has a lot to do with the public feud between his family and Tony LaRussa.
One of those things “everyone” knows is that TLR had Rasmus in the dog house. So there’s a lot of belief, perhaps legitimate, that he needed to be a change of scenery guy to blossom.
I think drj is right that there was little to no way the O’s would have been in on Rasmus because like he says, Andy likes to get back numbers.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
ramus can stay at CF, there seems to be a lot of skepticism of jones remaining at CF.
that’s a HUGE difference.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
based on his UZR numbers, at least,
i wouldn’t have that much more confidence in his ability to stick there.
I'm pretty sure Jones could stay at CF if he pulled his head out of his ass and started to actually play.
Instead, he’s blowing bubbles and shit rather than catching the ball.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
it’d probably let us move Jones to left and completely take Pie out of the lineup. that in itself is a win in my book.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
true,
but I wouldn’t be too thrilled about trading away Guts, Koji, JJ, JJ, and Pie (i don’t remember the exact packages that were discussed here) to get a guy who appears to be just a little better than Adam Jones.
Yea....one player won't do shit for this team.
We need a whole mess of players…..trading away your 4 best players and 1 scrub (does Pie even get scrub status with his league-cellar -1.8 WAR?) for 1 decent player doesn’t make much sense.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
wait, was that what they were looking for for Rasmus?? seems odd to ask for so much considering everyone and their grandmother knew he wanted out and that the Cards were more than happy to oblige.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
not every front office (case in point: the cards) operates like ours.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Aug 1, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah but still, that’s just…wow.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
oh no no no no
i have no idea what what they wanted from us, if anything. That was just some hypothetical I saw thrown around here, I think.
On a side note, Andrew and EME
The definitions of the trading deadlines in this piece reminded me of the ‘Stat of the Week’ feature that appeared once on CamdenCast. Any chance that comes back? I seem to remember you were going to talk about bacon…
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
It'll be back... probably.
A lot of it is that we are still trying to spread our wings, figure out what we want the podcast to be and what it realistically can be. So we started out with that feature, but then we were trying to have entertaining podcasts with a guest (James and then Stacey), and now we’re trying to keep it shorter. Next podcast we will hopefully have a Blue Jays blogger on to break down next weekend’s series, so probably no specific picked stat for that either.
But I haven’t forgotten about it. It’s just taken a back seat to working out some other things for a few shows.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds to me like
You need to decide on a solid course of direction for this CamdenCast rebuilding effort. Stop bringing in high priced veterans like Stacey and James and invest in some international talent.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Aug 1, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
We have nothing to add. Now could you please get off our foot? Sorry it was there when you stepped on it though, buddy.
"Human beings make life so interesting. Do you know, that in a universe so full of wonders, they have managed to invent boredom?" ~ Death
As Weird Al sang...
Always hear the same kind of story
Break their nose and they’ll just say “sorry”
Tell me what kind of freaks are that polite?
It’s gotta mean they’re all up to somethin’
So quick, before they see it comin’
Time for a pre-emptive strike!
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
EME needs to trade you for some prospects while your stock is high.
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless - like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Aug 1, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Andrew and I are the prospects.
Careful Stacey doesn’t do some wheeling and dealing and trade us for Peter Schmuck.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Backgrounder stuff
is probably better for the off-season anyway. No pesky losses and drafts and losses and trades and losses and losses and losses to get in the way.
I’m enjoying the journey as CCast evolves. Thanks as ever.
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
by 33 on Aug 1, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Tommy Hunter is to me much less interesting, a pitcher likely to put up an ERA in the high 4s.
for the most part, I agree with what you wrote. the only reason why i ranked hunter as the much more valuable piece is because he’s likely to provide value. he’s 1-2 fWAR starter the last couple of season. even adjusting for division change, i could see him being 1 win starter the next four years with maybe even a random, flukey 2.5 win season throw in. davis, in contrast, could very well flame out and be released a year from now.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
Did we already say Randy Moss retired?
If not, he did.
"Human beings make life so interesting. Do you know, that in a universe so full of wonders, they have managed to invent boredom?" ~ Death
Heh
I guess this means I can scrap the piece I was writing about the final trade deadline of the MacPhail era.
I think the Orioles got robbed, naturally. I think we gave up a valuable and rare commodity for a slightly above replacement swingman with nearly no upside and a busted prospect who will almost certainly be unconditionally waived in a year’s time.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Unconditionally waived in a year?
Isn’t that too resolute an outcome for this organization? Better bet that he lingers around past the point of absurdity.
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
by 33 on Aug 1, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I was gonna say something similar. I figured he’d be making regular appearances until his contract expired. then again, maybe if we get a new, more decisive, GM in here…
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
He's out of options after this season
And he could easily be bad enough to not deserve a roster spot.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Well, under the post MacPhail regime, I hope it will
And I think that people are underestimating just how awful Davis might be.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
true
but he could also end up being okay. And it seems we get the benefit of two whole months to try and find out.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Actually, the odds are lower that he will be OK than any other potential outcome
Davis is almost entirely boom or bust. Either he learns to make more consistent contact or he doesn’t. If he doesn’t, which he hasn’t in over 950 major league plate appearances, he will be a black hole nearly equal to what Pie has done this season. If he does, he probably will be a two to four win player. But there is very little chance that he will improve at making contact just enough to be a replacement level player.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
can you give some examples of boom or bust guys
both that worked out and those that didn’t? Just so we have some kind of frame of reference.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Sure
That worked out: Carlos Delgado.
That didn’t: Brandon Wood.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
You keep talking about the post-MacPhail era as if its going to be a good thing
I’m bracing myself for something along the lines of a Rick Dempsey turn at the wheel
I believe it will
That Angelos has decided to replace MacPhail is in itself such a positive sign that I don’t have even the slightest belief that he will not upgrade. He may not upgrade significantly enough, but I see the worst-case scenario as a reunion with Pat Gillick, not the elevation of a moron like Dempsey.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
koji is not a rare commodity
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
Put simply, I believe you are wrong
Koji has been one of the 25 best relievers in all of baseball by fWAR in each of the past two seasons. Prior to that, he was a dominating closer in Japan for multiple seasons. Koji has demonstrated over five seasons between the US and Japan that he is capable of being a durable reliever who provides elite performance out of the bullpen, and he does so with an arsenal that projects to age well.
Because he has sustained his high performance over so many seasons, it is very unlikely that he is merely the beneficiary of the small sample size of a relief pitcher’s innings. Instead, it is probable that he genuinely is one of the 25 best relief pitchers in baseball. We can debate just how valuable one of the 25 best relief pitchers in baseball is, but certainly given the number of relievers in baseball, if we accept that Koji is as good as his performance has been, then he is by definition a rare commodity.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
as long as he doesn't start
and you use him judiciously as a reliever, he’s durable in that he can stay on the field.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
Eh
I don’t know if we really know that at all. He didn’t start last year, pitched mostly single innings and still got hurt. He wilts in the heat. I would not describe him as durable.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I wasn’t really being clear. I was typing on my tablet earlier and I didn’t feel like writing out a full answer. That said, Koji is an excellent reliever. I certainly won’t argue he’s in the top 25 because he’s probably is. My point is that good relievers are a dime dozen during the trading deadlines every year. Maybe a few are of Koji’s caliber but his value is diminished given his fragile condition. After all, the Orioles wouldn’t even use him on back to back days. Given that relievers aren’t used much to begin with, this additional restriction further diminishes his value. Now I’m going to steal a little bit from Keith Law when he was discussing the K-Rod trade to the Brewers. As Law said, it’s ridiculous to give anything of value for a reliever because across a 3 month span, even an excellent reliever will only provide 1 maybe 2 wins. In other words, the difference between picking up an excellent reliever versus a good one is minimum in terms of wins. Thus Koji is not a highly valuable commodity. A team could simply pick a good reliever instead and barely notice a difference in wins. Hell, a team could use a replacement level player and barely notice a difference in wins (of course to a playoff team, every win is very important). Putting together his value when factoring in his health and the actual value of excellent relievers themselves, I would dispute the notion that Koji is a “rare and valuable commodity.” If Koji is a rare and valuable commodity, it diminishes the meaning of these words because what would you describe a true number starter or a power hitting shortstop who can field. These are truly rare and valuable commodities, not a middle reliever, not even one as good as Koji. That’s not to say Koji is valueless though.
Finally, I don’t understand how the Orioles got robbed because I don’t know what criteria you’re using. If we use expected fWARs as one criteria, I highly suspect Davis/Hunter with their years of control will provide more value than Koji. I even agree with you that it wouldn’t be surprising if Davis is no longer with the O’s a year from now. But I suspect Hunter alone will outproduce Koji. He’s been a decent, serviceable starter in a tough ball park. ERA+ is adjusted for division and league differences. As of right now, I think you can make a decent case that Hunter can continue to be 1-2 win starter (mind you, I’m uber confident in this statement in the AL East, but I’m not looking to make an airtight case here). That’s about 4-8 wins the next four years before he hits free agency. That alone will be much more than what Koji will provide. Overall, I suppose the O’s could have gotten an Aaron Baker type of prospect in Davis, given the limitations of such a prospect, Davis isn’t bad. Certainly nothing to say that the O’s were robbed over.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
you know what would be an interesting bet
is to see who produces more fWAR, Koji and the year and half left on his contract versus Davis and Hunter and the years they have left before free agency. I would obviously take Davis and Hunter. Of course, this assumes Davis and Hunter aren’t traded. And this would be a long ass bet as I barely remember my off seasons bets from January much less one that would last 4 years. But it would be interesting nonetheless.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
You would also have to throw in whoever the Rangers get
by way of compensation pick for Koji (if they do).
"Baseball is an island of activity in a sea of statistics." - Anon
One, that would extend the bet out to 4 billion years. Two, it assumes the Rangers will offer him arbitration for his age 38 season. Highly unlikely considering the O’s refuse to do the same this offseason.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
One, I got time
Two, yeah you’re right.
"Baseball is an island of activity in a sea of statistics." - Anon
Just when I started to think I might try to be optimistic about these trades, I knew James would show up to destroy that.
And he’s probably right, too, which makes me sad.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 1, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I know.
It isn’t often that I actually agree with James, but, in this case, I do.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
i appreciate james as much as anyone
but sorry, i completely and utterly disagree with him on this one (see above).
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
I'm siding with you.
Much as I respect his opinion, I get the feeling he’s starting to allow his jadedness to effect his analysis.
It isn’t so much his low evaluations of Hunter and Davis as it is his calling Koji a rare and valuable commodity (as you so nicely addressed above).
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
overall, the reaction to this trade is pretty surprising to me.
the other popular sentiment expressed in this trade is that we didn’t get back good prospects. if that was your benchmark, then you were never going to be happy with this trade because good prospects was never a possibility for koji. you can’t build a farm system from trading old relievers. from what i understand, the rangers offered two good prospects for adams, which the padres took, and they made the same offer to the A’s for Andrew Bailey. I have not heard that possibility was on the table for koji (if so, the O’s should have taken w/o a doubt). the padres also wanted to two good prospects for bell (to compensate what they would get via compensation) but nobody stepped up. i guess all i’m saying (actually ranting and raving) is look at the value that was brought back in light of what was traded. of course, davis and hunter are very flawed players, but koji is a player with limited value.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
You know you're probably right about Davis likely being waived...
there will no doubt be the need for a spot on the 40 man for another former Cub.
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 2, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
No, he didn't.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
Lee smacked a homer for Pittsburgh. And to answer a silly question, the ex-scout I know (he’s 58, vacationing in Alaska now) is no fan of the internet (says it turned away fans and made everyone an “armchair expert”). He’s been out of the game 5 years, too, not 20. So whoever he talks to about baseball stuff isn’t pulling his chain, he has buddies who still work there; I won’t be posting his comments when he gets back though, no point here, it never leads to valid discussion obviously. After all, 3 or 4 weeks ago he said Pittsburgh was going to trade for Lee, I posted that here, and he was 100% correct. But what replies did I get….?
Back on point, if Davis strikes out and his BA is at his usual rate, that’s bad; if his best rate is what to expect, then he’ll be a solid #5/6 guy. If his wonderfully illuminating OPS is high, but he can’t hit and strikes out 1/3 of the time, then what?
Based on stats alone Davis will fail in Baltimore, Hunter will be a serviceable 4th starter/swingman. But they haven’t had a chance to succeed or fail in Baltimore, so we’ll see. After all, Berkman, Francour, Colon, and many more got a chance this year to improve, and, well, based on stats signing them was a mistake. Jury is out, for now.
You! You're the reason we won't be hearing this scout's comments!
Okay yea…..I don’t really care about them either.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have tried numerous times to engage you in "valid discussion"
and I have yet to get a response.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
by Andrew_G on Aug 1, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Of course, none of the signings you list were a mistake "based on stats"...
…nor are they even particularly comparable. Colon was a flier on a non-guaranteed contract; a perfectly reasonable thing to do based on his stats. Berkman had gone through a single bad season after over a decade of being one of the best hitters in the game; the chances were good that he’d rebound, particularly in the NL. The questions surrounding the Berkman deal were about his defense in right field (which were warranted) and about the size of his contract, which was a bit higher than people expected his market value would be. Francouer, meanwhile, has been exactly what his stats would predict, except that he has enjoyed his best isolated power numbers since his rookie year, an outlier which should stabilize over the course of the season.
But in all those cases, as well as in the cases of Davis and Hunter, none of this is based on stats alone. Traditional scouting plays a huge role in why people doubt these players. It isn’t merely that Hunter gives up too many flyballs and has a FIP consistently higher than his ERA. It is that his fastball isn’t that fast and isn’t that nasty, that his changeup is a fringe average pitch, that his breaking ball doesn’t create swings and misses. It isn’t merely that Davis strikes out a lot; it is that his swing is too long by a significant margin, making him easy prey for offspeed pitches. Scouting of the traditional kind, like that performed by your buddy, are as big a part of why people are questioning these deals as stats are.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
A buddy of mine, who's tech averse...
calls it SpaceBook.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
Hey now
Just because someone doesn’t use ‘em doesn’t mean they’re tech averse….I build computers and game, but I hate Facebook and Twitter…they just seem pointless to me and none of my friends use them…but I do love the Internet and tech.
"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."
by NewYorkOriole on Aug 1, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm of the opinion that Twitter is perhaps the most aptly named application ...
.. to ever come down the pike.
It is tailor made for twits.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
We're all really glad you predicted that Lee was going to the Pirates for a no-name worthless prospect.
You also told us Vlad Guerrero was a prime trade candidate and that we would be getting a prospect as well as a high-WAR locker room cancer for him. Well done with that last prediction.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Aug 1, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
you also said Vlad outhits a lot of DH’s and then, to back up this statement, promptly listed three DH’s which he does not outhit. see why I’m skeptical?
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 1, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Please elaborate on how his "illuminating OPS" could be high and it would be a bad thing?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I just can’t get past the same old “strikeouts are the worst thing ever” mindset.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 2, 2011 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Fuck Buzz Bissinger...
that’s who you’re talking about, right?
Also, comparing Lance Berkman to fucking Chris Davis is ruh-tar-ded. Since 2000, Lance Berkman trails only Pujols, ARod, and Bonds in WAR. His “worst” year was a year in which he posted what at the time was a career-low BABIP of .289 (more on this in a second) and yet somehow still managed to put up a two win season, making him a serviceable starter. This year he’s been even more dicked in terms of BABIP, posting a new career-low clip of .267. Given that, he’s still a three win player, headed up to being a four or a five win player if a few more of his balls in play fall in.
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 2, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
So did Mark Reynolds...
right? Or did he just rape the Braves so badly that I’m imagining he hit well against the NL this year?
Let’s go to the videotape: No, he fucking destroyed the NL this year. OPS of 1.223, 24 XBH in 56 AB. Shit, that terrible baseball player even had a K/BB rate close to 1!
Why didn’t anyone in the NL inquire about this man at the deadline this year?
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 2, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Short answer to my own question:
Nobody in the NL wanted him because he’s fucking awful at defense this year. Can’t they just hide his glove and tell him to DH every day?
‘Contrairiwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might
be; and if it were so, it would be: but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s
logic.’ — Through the Looking Glass, Lewis Carroll
by TerroristFistJab on Aug 2, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
fuck him. fuck him right in the ear. at least they lost.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
"MLB ready"
I wonder what prospects the Orioles could have gotten from that loaded Ranger system if AM didn’t ask for guys who could help right away. I just don’t understand AM’s logic…why would a contending trade away any of their good players who were helping them, well, contend? Davis and Hunter were expendable because they aren’t that good. But I guess the Orioles didn’t have a first baseman for this important Royals series coming up on Tuesday.
If the team wasn’t going to get much for Koji, I’d much rather have just kept him. At least the team could’ve offered him arbitration and received a draft pick. But those guys are really far from the majors…
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
From Camden Depot on the Uehara trade.
It is impossible to look at the deal and consider it a loss for the O’s. In return for a relief arm with no real role in the club’s future, Baltimore landed two 25 year olds — one with a bit of upside and not a lot of probability, and the other likely to be a solid contributor but not much more than that. Further, adding $2 million to the deal is a no brainer if it gets you back Davis. It is another strong value package landed by MacPhail and another feather in his “good trade” hat.
Camden Depot is the shit.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
The counterpoint to that is look at what Texas traded to get Mike Adams.
That being, you know, prospects, as opposed to “major-league ready” talent. I guess it doesn’t really make a difference because either way we’re on a wing and a prayer hoping whoever becomes a contributor for the Orioles.
I think saying the $2 million bought Davis as a positive is drinking the Kool-Aid. Realistically, Koji is on a very cheap contract this year and next and is so wildly outperforming it. He was not a salary dump candidate where there was the necessity to pay a team to get him to go away. I think Koji should have gotten a return without the O’s giving up money. If Texas wasn’t willing to pony up then MacPhail could have just said, “Well, let me just go call the Angels…”
Honestly though, in the end the money doesn’t matter. If either Davis or Hunter are good for the Orioles then it will have been a good trade. If they aren’t, then it won’t. I definitely think that Koji had more value as a trade chip than he did to stay on the Orioles roster. The question is whether MacPhail extracted the maximum value, or close to it. For me, that answer is no. But I’ll be rooting for Chris Davis to hit 35 home runs and Tommy Hunter to win the Cy Young next year anyway.
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 2, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The counterpoint to that is look at what Texas traded to get Mike Adams.
And I would say those guys weren’t available for Koji. Texas offered those guys to Adams, which SD took, and to the A’s for Andrew Bailey. Billy Beane decided to pass for whatever reason. I haven’t heard anything that these guys were available for Koji.
The question is whether MacPhail extracted the maximum value, or close to it. For me, that answer is no.
I guess what I’m saying is what is this based on? What evidence is out there to suggest more value was out there but Andy didn’t capitalize on it.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
This is my bugaboo.
People thinking a GM could have done better, with the inference being the GM obviously sucks for not doing better. How so? How does one have even the slightest inkling of what was available? Unless you have a GM with a track record of constantly making bad deals, you have to give the guy the benefit of assuming he knows his job and probably got about as good of a deal as he could, all factors considered.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
i don’t think macphail is a good gm, but i begrudgingly give him credit when it comes to trades. he’s done well.
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
I don't think I'm really qualified to judge whether MacPhaill is a good GM or not.
I am disappointed in his performance so far, but I have no good understanding how much of that is lack of ability on his part verses other factors outside his control.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
methinks MacPhail may have gotten a similar, maybe not quite as large, offer but turned it down for “major league ready” players that he’s so fond of.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Aug 2, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
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