Orioles 8, Royals 2: A quality starter emerges?
If I told you at the beginning of the season that at the end of play on August 2, the Orioles would only have one starter with an ERA below 4.00, what would have been your reaction? If I asked you to guess which starter that was, how many guesses do you think it would have taken before you gave the correct answer of Alfredo Simon? This is where we are, though. With seven strong innings tonight, Simon brought his ERA below 4. He surrendered only one run during this game and finished with 3.83. We probably shouldn't get carried away; it was only his fifth start and he's only thrown 30 innings as a starter this year. Still, his ERA would be even lower if you removed his relief appearances.
Simon gave up four hits, walked one, struck out three and didn't allow a run after the first inning. Even more to his credit, on a night where the temperature at first pitch was 107 degrees, Simon threw 106 pitches and looked about as good in his last inning as he did in any other. If Simon is able to come close to pitching like this regularly, the Orioles may have had an unexpected, unlooked-for starter emerge from the pack.
In un-Orioles fashion, tonight the O's got runs early and kept adding on runs through to late. They scored in four different innings, including a four-run ninth. In all, they got eight runs on twelve hits. Multi-hit games came from J.J. Hardy, Chris Davis (his first two hits as an Oriole), Robert Andino and Mark Reynolds (three hits, including a three-run monster bomb in the 9th - his 24th of the year), and Nick Markakis added a hit and two walks.
Who would have thought that good things happen when you chase a starter early in a game? Royals starter and former Birdland jokester Bruce Chen had gotten up to 115 pitches in 4.2 IP. He issued four walks to O's hitters and wasn't doing much of fooling people with the soft-tossing stuff, giving up seven hits and three earned runs. Chen exited with a 3-1 deficit, thanks to a two-run double by Reynolds in the 4th and an RBI infield single in the 5th by Davis.
The game was a good one for the newly-acquired Orioles. Davis added his first home run as an Oriole with a solo shot in the 9th that left the score at the 8-2 margin where it would remain. Tommy Hunter appeared in relief, pitching the 8th inning. While a run scored in the inning, he wasn't exactly being smacked around. A bloop hit to left put Alex Gordon on first base, then Melky Cabrera singled through the hole opened up from holding Gordon, who went from first-to-third on the play - team speed is a radical concept.
The next batter was Billy Butler, who hit a soft liner to right. It was one of those balls that should have never been deep enough to score a runner on past years' versions of Nick Markakis, but in 2011 it means a run scores. Markakis fielded the ball clean and launched a throw in the general direction of home plate, but it wasn't going to land anywhere near Matt Wieters and was cut off. So, that's an earned run against Hunter. It could be worse, though. He was throwing some serious cheese and it's quite possible his next appearance will be from the rotation.
Another amazing thing is that good things happen when your starter pitches 7 innings. The end of the game looks a lot shorter. And it gets even less stressful when the offense adds on runs in the 9th so there's no need for our save-soaker to make an appearance. Instead, Chris Jakubauskas appeared in the garbage time situation and had a drama-free 9th, with two strikeouts.
All in all, for one night at least, the O's actually looked like a competent baseball team. After the hellish Saturday and Sunday in New York, it was easy to forget what that felt like. Maybe it will turn out that a series against the Royals is just what the O's needed to get settled in with the new look and turn things around a bit. They will be helped in this endeavor because tomorrow they will face Luke Hochevar, who's sporting a 5.15 ERA. Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound for the Orioles, and if he turns in a strong start, maybe he, too, can join the sub-4.00 starter club.
For tonight, though, the only member of that club is Simon, and he earned his place in it. We can only hope he'll be remaining there with more strong starts in the future.
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Team speed?
Fleas, getting picked off, big you-know-whats who can hit the ball out, etc.
"Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs." -- Earl Weaver
Oh shit, I forgot an MBP poll. Shame on me!
"That ball is gone. We'll pause ten seconds to commit suicide ... I mean, for a station identification." - Joe Angel, 6/17/11
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 3, 2011 12:07 AM EDT reply actions
PS. I voted for Chris Davis because someone told me he's the best baseball player ever.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
HR and rbi, who doubted Chris Davis must bend a knee before me!
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
What's Hunter's Deal, Man?
I’ve read numerous reports that describe Hunter as pitching to contact. The guy has never averaged over 3 K/9 in the Majors. But his fastball consistently hit 95 tonight, and his slider hit 90… Why isn’t Hunter making people miss? I’m confused.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Aug 3, 2011 12:35 AM EDT reply actions
According to Fangraphs, Hunter's averaged 5.03 K/9 over 250.1 IP as a starter in the majors.
But I agree with you, it’s a bit worrisome that he’s not punching out more batters. He kinda reminds me of Guts – good velocity and low walks, but can’t get enough swinging strikes and gives up too many homers. Maybe he can learn to command the zone better and get hitters to swing at his offspeed stuff.
Then again, he struck out 4-6 per nine in the minors, so he hasn’t exactly shown that he can get his stuff by anybody.
You have to remember also that velocity in a relief appearence might not be the same as a start
"Baseball is an island of activity in a sea of statistics." - Anon
My vote is for Adam Jones,
as I was 99% certain he was going to take out JJ Hardy on that liner to end the 6th.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
The Orioles could do worse than have Simon in the rotation all year
literally.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Can you believe
some guy saw Simon throw in Bowie in May and predicted disaster if the Sauce was put in the rotation?
What a moran.
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
by 33 on Aug 3, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Around the minors 8-2:
Norfolk lost to Columbus 5-4. Ryan Adams went 1-5 with a double and 2 Ks. Jake Fox went 1-4 with a double and a K. Steve Johnson gave up 2 earned in six on 8 hits (1 homer), striking out 2, walking none and a GB/FB of 4/6. Cole McCurry continues to struggle of late, going two thirds of an inning, giving up 1 earned on 2 hits and a walk, while striking out 1.
Bowie swept a twinbill against Portland. In the Game 1 7-6 win, Xavier Avery went 1-4 with a walk and a K. LJ Hoes homered, but only once, going 2-4 with an error. He now has 5 homers on the year in Bowie. Joseph Mahoney went 0-4. Caleb Joseph went 2-4 with his 7th homer of the season as well as a K. Ronnie Welty went 0-1 with 2 walks and a K as well as a SB; Welty has 49 walks for the season. I’m not sure why he’s batting 9th in the BaySox lineup, I assume it’s related to the Orioles cleanup hitter. Pat Egan went 1 scoreless inning, striking out 1. In the Game 2 5-4 win, LJ Hoes went 1-3 with his sixth homer, so technically on days that he’s homered, he’s hit 2. He also walked and struck out. Joe Mahoney went 1-4 with a K. Ronnie Welty went 0-1 with 2 walks.
Frederick beat Lynchburg 5-4. Jonathan Schoop went 1-3. Manny Machado went 2-4. Newly acquired Aaron Baker went 2-4 with a homer. Kipp Schutz went 0-4 with 2 strikeouts and a SB.
Delmarva lost to Lakewood 6-2. Ty Kelly went 0-3 with a K, he was also removed for a PH. Michael Ohlman went 1-4 with 2 Ks. Jarret Martin had a tough game, going six innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 walks, striking out 2, with a GB/FB of 10/5.
Aberdeen lost to Lowell 5-4. Glynn Davis went 0-5 with 2 Ks. Joe Velleggia went 0-2 with 2 walks and a K, but was removed for a PR. Wynston Sawyer went 1-4 with a homer and a K. Mychal Givens went 0-2 with 2 walks and a K as wel as a SB. Connor Narron went 0-1 with a walk and 3 walks. Mike Wright had another good start, went five innings, giving up 1 earned on 3 hits, striking out 4 and having a GB/FB of 8/2. Ryan Berry went 2 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 2 hits and a walk, striking out 3. Luis Lebron somehow gave up 2 earned runs, as he allowed 1 walk and 0 hits, while uncorking 2 wild pitches. He pulled this off by allowing a runner on a strikeout courtesy of 1 of those wild pitches.
The GCL Orioles lost the GCL PHN 6-2. Rod Bernadina was back in the lineup going 1-4 with a K. Sebastian Vader went 5 innings, striking out 5, walking 1, and allowing 1 earned run and 3 hits with a GB/FB of 5/5.
The DSL Orioles beat the DSL Rockies 4-1. Byron Capellan went 1-4. Hector Veloz went 2-3 with a double and a K. Alex Mercedes went 2-4 with a SB.
Minor league notes:
- Bobby Bundy makes his Bowie debut on Friday in Bowie! If you are in the area…
- Clayton Schrader is on the DL, but apparently it’s not serious per Melewski.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
bowie is 61-48
is their good record primarily a function of minor league vets?
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
I don't know, but there are a fair amount of interesting guys in Bowie,
LJ Hoes, Xavier Avery, Joe Mahoney, Caleb Joseph, Ronnie Welty all have some major league hopes. The pitching staff is likely more minor league vets, though they recently added Drake and Bundy. Plus Dan Klein, Cole McCurry, Pat Egan and Jose Diaz have all been a part of their bullpen at one point or another. I’m also assuming Zach Britton will rejoin their rotation before the season ends.
Also, the GCL Orioles in first place. Aberdeen is 13-32 now, after losing eleventy games in a row earlier in the season. Frederick won the first half title, and leads the second half by 4 games.
All in all, I’ve seen worse years on the farm. Although you know, what is that saying?
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Aug 3, 2011 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
It's saying that we have so many AAAA scrubs that some of them are in AA, dominating
"Baseball is an island of activity in a sea of statistics." - Anon
Shorebirds are 50-58
But were .500 in 1st half before the exodus to Frederick began.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
by duck on Aug 3, 2011 8:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well...based on some quick and dirty calculations
The offense is driven largely by young’uns
Player (age) Runs Created Total/ Runs Created Per Game
LJ Hoes (21) 40.8 / .65(!)
Joe Mahoney (24) 32.01 / .60
Xavier Avery (21) 51.9 / .49
Greg Miclat (24) 46.7 / .47
Caleb Joseph (25) 38.8 / .47
Buck Britton (25) 23.24 / .46
Pedro Florimon Jr (24) 44.92 / .44
Ronnie Welty (23) 44.81 / .44
Brandon Waring (25) 34.77 / .40
Those guys combined make up 77.2% of the runs created with only 64.0% of the ABs taken.
The pitchers are a different story, with the only true prospect in the top five contributors being Dan Klein with an FIP of 1.97, Oliver Drake and Rick Zagone have done poorly. Otherwise the big contributors among pitchers have been Bascom, Ballard and Diaz (over 25) and Cole McMurry who is 25. Gabino, Viola, and Steve Johnson have also been good, I don’t know if they’re really prospects anymore though.
Conclusion: The offensive contributions have been largely young guys with ML potential, the biggest of which coming from true prospects Hoes, Avery and Miclat. Pitcher wise, maybe there’s some ML bullpen arms on this team (Bascom, Ballard, definitely Klein) but most of these guys are probably just career minor leaguers.
Note that this analysis is based on actual contributions to this team winning games (so how long they’ve been there counts, making Hoes’ numbers even more impressive).
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Aug 3, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What I mean by contributions is...
For pitchers I did a quick runs saved total based on FIP vs. an FIP of 4 in the innings pitched.
So not perfect, but we’re talking about who is contributing to Bowie’s winning games.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Aug 3, 2011 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions
interesting
very helpful. thanks!!!!
The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).
Well, I'm still in the office, it's 2:45 AM...
I had to take my mind away from REC markets for a second, and this was just analytical enough to let me not break my stride excel-wise.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Aug 3, 2011 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the report
At this time of year, one looks to the minor league teams for a ray of hope for the future. I appreciate it.
Even though Simon deserved it more
I had to throw an MBP vote at Davis. I’d like to see piling on with late inning HRs become a more regular Birdland event.
Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
I'm with you
1st O’s hr and a good all around night from our recent acquisition is pretty Birdland. So was awesomesauce, but Davis deserves a few votes.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
He got mine.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
Chris Davis
A reason to get optimistic again, it’s been awhile
"Birdland is the belief that as great as today just was, tomorrow might be even better." -EME
Mark Reynolds
I have no idea how to evaluate Mark. He must be a sabermetrician’s delight. How does one determine whether, over the course of a long season, he helps or hurts? My gut instinct says that I would rather have a more consistent player with fewer strike outs and better defense.
On the plus side, he has power and he walks a lot. On the minus side, of course, he commits many errors, he strikes out a ton, and he is not fleet of foot. What does this mean? Assuming that Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt are unavailable, is Mark Reynolds a valuable player? Or, is he the equivalent of the beautiful girl with a “head case” personality, someone to stay away from.
I think he is exactly like a "beautiful girl with a head case personality"
He brings value to the table, but a lot of it is destroyed by his defense (her craziness). Still, it’s nice to have for a couple years, just not as a permanent thing.
Also, they are both fun to round the bases with a couple times a week.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
We were having this same quick conversation last night.
I think that the stats provide a mixed picture, but in real life you see this guy swing a bat, and it’s really something fun to watch. I like him WAY better than Melmo, but I know in their primes, they are about the same type of player (make routine pays look terrible sometimes, hit well using some metrics, terrible in others). If we have to have Mark Reynolds be our 3rd baseman for 2-3 years, I can more than live with it, I like watching him play baseball. Not a ton of that on the Orioles right now.
Birdland and Buck both start with B... coincidence? I think not.
by Birdland in NC on Aug 3, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
too bad the pricetag is about to get a little wild
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
The defense is an actual detractor, but the strikeouts are not
we really need to start understanding that at some point.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I predate most of the newer statistical metrics being used today ...
… so I have a good deal of ignorance whenever I wade into discussions based on them.
But I don’t understand why strikouts are any worse than any other sort of out. Yes, there is the possibility of advancing a base runner – assuming there is one – but there is also the possibility of the guy on base being held, being forced or worst case getting doubled up. The first two are no different than a strikeout and the last one is worse.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
A strikeout also requires seeing at least 3 pitches, something this team sometimes struggles with
So there is at least one other way that strikeouts are actually preferable to other kinds of outs.
Out of Curiosity...
Anyone know the average number of pitches seen/thrown per strikeout? Or perhaps the median number?
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Aug 3, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, what about league average breakdown of results ...
… for balls put in play?
i.e. – put out w/ no runner or no runner advance ; force out ; double play, out, with runner advanced, hit, error
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests".
- Patrick Henry –
Speed
Fangraphs shows Reynolds as having a league average speed for 3B.
I have a question... using some particular stat, let's say WAR for ease of this calculation...
If we fielded a 0.0 WAR team, we would by definition be a historically terrible team (20 wins or something), and if we fielded a 3 WAR team we would be about a playoff team right? (25×3=75 wins plus the 20 baseline = 95)
Also, I hypothesize that we could field a team of ACTUAL replacement players in AAA and have closer to a .500 team, not the suckitude we currently see. For example, Simon being a starter has to be above a 0 WAR player, but if we randomly moved up guys like this over the course of a season we would luck into a better lineup and rotation than we currently have. I know we don’t have unlimited replacement players, but the Yankees seem to essentially find people this way, and we hardly ever do.
My point is… that in theory, if you had a team of league average players you would be about .500, but I think this hypothetical team of league average players would be a sucking bag of wind. Also, the above hypothetical replacement team would obviously suck. You NEED extraordinary players to even compete at elite levels of any sport. The Orioles are frustrating to watch because of the lack of these elite players. In absence of these great players, Reynolds is fun to talk about, but I would rather have a couple legit elite players to root for and help us win!
Birdland and Buck both start with B... coincidence? I think not.
by Birdland in NC on Aug 3, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, bingo
You NEED extraordinary players to even compete at elite levels of any sport. The Orioles are frustrating to watch because of the lack of these elite players. In absence of these great players, Reynolds is fun to talk about, but I would rather have a couple legit elite players to root for and help us win!
Also: teams need to know when to stop playing below-replacement level players and cut their losses (coughcoughPiecough)
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?
Pie is the most glaring example but not the only one either...
Andino, Izzy, Tatum, Vlad, all of last year’s relievers except JJ, most of the starters we roll out there… Those are just the ones I can think of…
Birdland and Buck both start with B... coincidence? I think not.
by Birdland in NC on Aug 3, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

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